Ukraine Invasion: Part 31

[MagicFox]

31st thread, welcome all and thanks as usual.

POTUS's comments are obviously on public record but in themselves mean possibly no more than anything Putin says..???

Looking at it objectively there are several nations (including the UK) who on paper have would appear to have the capability to cut the pipeline(s), and if you are prepared to go well towards tin foil hat territory you can come up with a motive for any one of them doing so.

Guess we will have to wait and see, if we do, who finds what when somebody gets down there and looks at the wreckage.

I think he was trying to talk tough to discourage the Russians from invading. He shouldn't have mentioned it at all. This is one of the downsides of having a 79 year old President who is prone to misstatements.

Do these gas leaks near Denmark affect the flow of gas further East? I would think it meddles with pressures.

Was anyone still getting gas from Nordstream 1 and 2?
I thought they were being repaired not so long ago.

Sorry to be so ignorant.

Nordstream 2 never went into service. The Russians cut deliveries through Nordstream 1 to almost nothing, claiming that a turbine needed repair.

Thank you for the answer MissConductUS.

Finland is closing its borders to Russian tourists at midnight, tabloids saying the main reason is to prevent saboteurs getting in and damaging energy infrastructure while normal news says its not that

What's your sense? Sometimes there is a hint of truth in tabloid stories, other times they just make shit up.

I thought that the reason he hadn't sent troops in already was because they'd refused to go. I'm hoping that's still the case.

Main reason or not given what is known about the potential roles of the KGB (historically), now FSB, Spetnaz etc, reducing the possibility of anybody associated with those organisations leaving Russia for anywhere in west during the current conflict makes perfect sense ATM.

Guardian 2m ago...

"Russian forces face “imminent defeat” in the key northeastern city of Lyman as Ukrainian soldiers continue their counteroffensive in the east of the country, according to a US think tank.
The Institute for the Study of War, citing Russian reports, said Ukrainian forces have taken more villages around Lyman, some 160 kilometres (100 miles) southeast of Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city.
Russian forces had captured Lyman, a key railway juncture, in May. The institute said a possible collapse of the Lyman pocket would allow Ukrainian troops to “threaten Russian positions along the western Luhansk” region.
Additional Russian losses would further erode morale amid the country’s mobilisation, the institute said."

Precisely. Let's not forget that it was two GRU agents, posing as tourists, who used chemical weapons on British soil.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisoning_of_Sergei_and_Yulia_Skripal

The thing is, it has been imminent for weeks. It does seem to be becoming more and more certain, but it never quite seems to fall. Every day I keep hoping. It feels like they can't move on to something else until it actually does.

I think any would-be saboteurs would probably own property in Finland (likely near areas of strategic importance), which would allow them entry anyway as the ban doesn't apply to anyone with family or property in Finland.

The nervous part of me is breaking through and I'm a touch worried about tomorrow. Do we think that there is any need to be? I bloody hate it when Putler makes any sort of statement.

It's about the annexation ie to declare it / make it official. I know what you mean, about what else he might slip in there?

Reported by Sky News 30 mins ago:

Russia claims it is considering talks on extending key nuclear arms treaty
Russia has said it is looking at a potential face-to-face meeting between Russian and US negotiators on a landmark nuclear arms control treaty.

Foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, who earlier appeared to blame the US for an attack on the Nord Stream pipelines, said Russia was open to reviving inspections under the New START treaty and considering the possibility of in-person meetings to discuss nuclear arms.

Physical inspections under New START have been suspended since 2020, initially as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.

"The topic of resuming them is being considered," Ms Zakharova said in a briefing.

"The possibilities for holding a face-to-face session of the bilateral advisory commission are being studied."

New START sets limits on the number of nuclear arms Russia and America can have deployed, and outlines the terms for verification and inspection of each other's nuclear arsenals.

Moscow raised the issue in August and said it would consider a possible resumption of discussions to extend the treaty, one of the few major diplomatic agreements that remain in place despite relations between Russia and the US hitting rock-bottom because of the Ukraine war.

Well that sounds positive

Not a bad thing, it's good there is even a hint of talks.

OTOH the cynic in me is thinking that when your own arsenal is screwed/becoming difficult and expensive to maintain it's perhaps time to make very reasonable sounding public suggestions to look again at negotiating inspection protocols and then better still negotiating limitations on everybody's arsenal......

Ifyou look at the track record and at Putin's nature I don't believe for a second that they are made in good faith.

This announcement probably has something to do with tomorrow's speech.

It also has nothing to do with Russia removing first-use from its doctrine, which is very much the likeliest scenario now.

And if anyone believes that Russia would keep to any promises it make now, they've not been observing fothe last few years.

I am afraid I am such a cynic that I think Russia bringing up the subject in an apparently conciliatory way makes it seem more likely he is going to use nukes rather than less.

I thought the same!

The Russians can sound conciliatory as they like about START (which is about Strategic Intercontinental systems only), but for starters the treaty doesn't apply to tactical systems.

I suspect the report is just window dressing/fluff released to make many think Russia is trying to be reasonable over "nukes".. in reality such statements don't change the threat in the context of Ukraine.

Well great, now I'm getting a tad anxious.

I still think we're all mainly getting jerked about by him. I am afraid, but if you look at it, he's relying on this bloody mobilization not nukes.

Logically why? Practically absolutely nothing has changed.

It's not as if NATO are suddenly going to let their guard down because a Russian minister has publicly made a statement about returning to the days of verifying details of intercontinental systems. The Russians will know that, so their posture on tactical use won't change either.

This is much more likely to be some form of bizarre charm offensive to sway those sitting on the fence thinking Russia may be quite reasonable really 😨