Which businesses are going to go under?

[Nobledeedsandhotbaths]

I've been thinking about the upcoming crisis and wondering which 'non-essential' businesses are likely to lose most custom once things begin to bite.

Things like:
Tattoo artists
Nail technicians
Children's party entertainers
Just for a few examples.

There are many others I would class as non-essential that will potentially be ok because their client base is the wealthy, who will be less affected by what is going to happen.

What are other people's predictions for businesses that may struggle?

I remember the 70s and 80s without rose tinted spectacles but one difference may be that most in a particular community were more equally well or badly off, there was no instagram and facebook with performative lifestyle comparison posting and for those with mortgages, the income multiple of pricing was much less hence many could afford a lifestyle on a single earner. If both members of a couple are now working full time and perhaps have a second job, there is less scope to earn more.

When looking at investing in different companies, stocks and shares etc, this is all part of the consideration, in someways this thread would be considered market research. It could be debated this type of thinking, is not much different from previous economic crashes.

I went to our Aldi when it first opened and when i got home i did a comparison with Sainsburys. There was only £4 difference, and given I don’t drive that would be made up in the cost of a cab.

My mum went to Aldi this morning and said that a shop which would previously have cost £35 was £65.

Aldi IMO started out cheaply in order to earn a reputation as being cheap. So people have continued to shop with them believing they had a good deal, but as they’ve increased in price their reputation as cheap has meant they’ve retained their customer base.

But there’s really very little in it.

When it comes to investments in different industries etc, this could be considered useful research for strategic investments etc

JugglingJanuary

From what I understand the British Gas boiler services at that price are pretty much a visual check over. Not a proper service at all.

My mum had one a year ago and the "engineer " was in the house for no more than 10 minutes. It was pointless.

Our boiler services take 45 minutes - 1 hour to do. The engineer takes the boiler apart and cleans and inspects everything. A safety check for gas spillage is also done.

I'm in an expensive area (Surrey/London borders) and our normal fee is £95 plus VAT.

In this area anything from £75 - £100 is normal.

I know ours is at the higher end but I know our services are proper and thorough and worthwhile.

I hope that helps.

I'm struggling to think of any businesses in the hospitality and food industry that can survive these energy prices.

How will they be able to afford to open? Who will be able to afford to go?

Any thread on here about what people will cut back on makes it very clear that the service industry and retail are going to take a hanmering too.

So the businesses that supply them and provide support services to them will also struggle.

Agree

Yes. It was barely a recession like the 80’s ones. It was very isolated to borrowing and banking.
the previous recessions have been much wider industry spread.

the government soon bailed the banks and mortgages out and that was over.
arguably they shouldn’t have. But that’s another story.

The others have had to sharpen their pencils to compete. It has taken them a long time to cotton on to it.

Busy village shop+PO is closing near me. In response to forecast rising energy prices (they say). I'm shocked because I've never been in there without at least 1 other customer.

I am lucky that I can keep it going in the background, that is true. Even if I didn't have time to add any new books, it could survive as an archive site.

I have tried a long time ago offering membership options, but it didn't work out. The books are all in the public domain, and whilst I do spend a lot of time formatting them, and making them look nice, ultimately people can find them for free elsewhere. But then, I offer a good service also :)

The impact hasn't really hit yet and the impact of the energy crisis hits with a double whammy of businesses costing more to run PLUS customers not having money to spare.
If a lot of people lose their jobs for some sort of economic hash up, that's one thing but when you've increased costs and decreased demand, things will get rough.
People haven't had to have heating on for the past 5 or 6 months so the energy price hasn't hit customers' spending power yet.

The interest rate rises in the 90s is a better comparison than 2008.

People's monthly mortgage payments quadrupled when interest rates hit 15/16% and the government just let it happen.

To muchtodotoolittleinclination
Our leisure centre is brilliant. They are all linked up and set as a charitable organisation to encourage healthy active lifestyles at affordable costs. I can choose between multiple pools, a few gyms etc and classes. It's a fabulous and used service.

I didn't live here in the 90s so I can't remember that time. I remember the 80s though!

What happened there then? It must have been crazy. I can't recall that being the case in Ireland. Was it a global issue?

This being global and with the double whammy effect is going to be harsh. It's hard to even try to imagine how bad things are going to be as right now, people are merrily thinking 'oh, I won't turn the heating on' while we're basking in sunshine right now but if it's a cold winter, the reality will be horrific.

Mind you, I think the UK is more exposed to this than other countries who are slightly more self reliant, so let's hope the stock market doesn't crash.

I know people are saying they won't give up their haircuts or softplay or whatever but some people literally will not have the money to go, no matter how much they want to. If perhaps you lose your job and you're struggling to pay the rent, and also being hit with astronomical heating bills in January, there simply won't be money to spare for anything but essentials really. Unless this fucking government does something and fast, it's going to be bloody awful. I'm not an economist and I'm not even sure how many billions we're in debt as things stand, so it's not going to be easy to find money to soften the blow. We could come out this a very poor country.

Oh dear. Pahahahahah. Jesus. I've just googled our debt.

^What is the debt of the UK 2022?
Public sector net debt excluding public sector banks (PSND ex) was £2,387.6 billion at the end of June 2022, or around 96.1% of gross domestic product (GDP), which is an increase of £183.0 billion or 1.0 percentage points of GDP compared with June 2021^

What's a few more billion lol.

We are horribly exposed because we barely generate half of our own energy, and 42% of that is burning gas to make electricity!

Everyone knew gas and oil were going to become increasingly unaffordable this decade so the government should have spent the last decade preparing for it by investing in the infrastructure for renewables. We are surrounded by bloody wind and tides, and solar on all public buildings would have paid for itself by now. They were supposed to build Swansea Bay Tidal Lagoon in 2016, where is it?

As well as making the U.K. independent in energy bringing the energy sector into public ownership would have been a good idea too. Run it for the benefit of our country and our economy, not shareholders.

U.K. debt

Things started really going to pot between 2010 and 2020, and then got worse.

Tattoo artists and nail salons won't go out of business. They're fashionable and deemed important for a large section of society. That's not going to stop. Same with those brow bars and eyelash places.

It's interesting because builders are very much in demand where I live. The area is littered with skips and builders vans. Every second house seems to be getting an extension or a loft conversion.

That's very worrying for your business. I hope you get through this successfully.

Dog walking is big business - something that didn't really used to exist. Same with all these dog groomers. Dogs particularly are very expensive pets, but people won't want to give them up.