Ukraine Invasion: Part 29

[MagicFox]

Welcome all, part 29

Here's a good article on how the recent bridge shelling in Kherson fits into Urkaine's process of shaping the battlefield in advance of an offensive to retake the area.

Ukraine update: Ukraine's upcoming strategy is starting to take shape, look to the southeast

In short, they are going to cut off the occupying troops from resupply to force them to withdraw. Similar tactics worked for Snake Island, but in this case, they have to minimize collateral damage and danger to civilians.

@notimagain, I'm not sure if you're following the new thread, but I have a couple of follow ups to our discussions on the prior thread.

On the topic of the west supplying fighter jets, this suggests that it won't be MIG's due to the lack of spare parts:

www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/07/21/western-fighter-jets-could-sent-ukraine-boost-forces-us-plans/

As to why the Russian air defense systems haven't been able to intercept American made rocket artillery, this bloke suggests that the fire control software isn't capable of isolating their radar signature from Grad rockets that the Ukrainians are firing simultaneously to create target clutter.

If true, it will take a software patch to fix it. The use of the Soviet-era rockets as decoys was mentioned in a podcast from The Economist, so I think it's credible.

@MissConductUS

Thanks for the shout/info above.

...I did indeed miss the transition to the latest thread, I thought it had gone quiet..

You have to be on your toes when sequential threads like this one fill up. I steward a long running series of threads about boring news in people's everyday lives in the Chat section. I've found it helpful to create the new thread and post the link to it right before the old one fills up. We lose fewer people in the transition that way.

And you're very welcome.

Sorry we lost you @notimagain - I've been posting the new thread and the link to it once we get to 990 posts so if it goes quiet again check the early 90s :-)

Just a late place mark.

Thanks to all those who update regularly.

I think the true number is higher than what CIA estimated - remember there was that leak in Russian newspaper website in March that almost 10k Russian soldiers were dead, and 16k wounded? I think Ukraine figures are not that far off the mark.

Also, remember there's been a lot of soldiers in first phase who once retreated, didn't want to go back. There are reports that they are increasingly being forced to go now, either by threats or stealth.

mobile.twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1550132495097597957 Russia going to run out of steam

Thank you, this is a really interesting article!

@MissConductUS thanks for the link on Ukraine shaping the battlefield. I did wonder how Ukraine could take back occupied cities like Kherson where Russian troops are entrenched without killing civilians and destroying buildings and infrastructure or losing a lot of soldiers. The article explained how. That was most enlightening.

Also, I found the video about why Russian air defense systems haven't been able to intercept HIMAR rockets from grad decoys to be most interesting. So funny about it taking 6 months to a year for Russia to deploy a small software patch to fix it and a whole rolling programme for their systems to go down in turn to update the software. Just like in real life.

Just like in real life. :D

My IT friends say IT is a black art not a science! :)

remember there was that leak in Russian newspaper website in March that almost 10k Russian soldiers were dead, and 16k wounded? Good point; and that was back in March.

Thank you for those articles; I had been wondering and worrying quite a bit about Kherson and the price on the civilians of attempting to free it.

Key Takeaways

The current Russian operational tempo is not markedly different from the pace of Russian offensive operations during the official Russian operational pause, and Russian forces are unlikely to be able to take significant ground in the coming weeks.

Russia has likely used as much as 55-60% of its high-precision weaponry reserve.

Russian forces continued limited ground attacks to the east of Siversk and south of Bakhmut.

Russian forces conducted an unsuccessful ground attack north of Kharkiv City.

Russian forces conducted a limited ground attack in Kherson Oblast.

Russian forces may be storing equipment in Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant facilities to protect it against Ukrainian strikes.

Russia’s Murmansk Oblast is reportedly forming a volunteer battalion.

+++

⚡️ Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and UN Secretary General António Guterres plan to sign an agreement on the export of grain from Ukraine by sea on July 22

💵 Ukraine expects $3 billion of external financing in July, and $16-17 billion by the end of the year, said the Finance Minister Sergii Marchenko [it sounds a lot but there are various signs Ukr is in dire financial straits]

The US Senate submitted a draft resolution recognizing the actions of the Russian Federation in Ukraine as genocide of the Ukrainian people

📌 The Russian military occupation of the Chornobyl Exclusion Zone has become a crime against the environment. The conclusion was announced by Greenpeace experts on July 20

📌 The Russian military occupation of the Chornobyl Exclusion Zone has become a crime against the environment. The conclusion was announced by Greenpeace experts on July 20

🔺 The European Union has imposed sanctions against six Syrians and the security company Al-Sayyad. They are involved in recruiting mercenaries for Russia to fight in Ukraine. Al-Sayyad, known as the ISIS Hunters, has been sanctioned for setting up a recruiting network. She works with private military group Wagner and defends Russia's interests in Syria (protection of oil facilities).

📌 Sixty-eight foreign vessels remain blocked in the ports of Ukraine. Some of the crews are on ships, others have been replaced by Ukrainian sailors

📌 Germany is categorically against the commissioning of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline
This would be "raising the white flag" in Germany and Europe, said German Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck.

+++

⚡️Reuters: Nord Stream turbine stuck in transit as Russia holds up delivery.
The turbine was transported to Germany on July 17, but has since been stuck in transit because Russia has not given the green light to transport it back, two people familiar with the matter who spoke with Reuters said
Earlier, Moscow cut the capacity of the Nord Stream gas pipeline by 60%, citing the delayed return of the turbine that was being serviced in Canada.

⚡️Cabinet of Ministers says Ukraine will have enough grain for domestic needs, exports despite war.

Hacked Ukrainian radio stations broadcast fakes about Zelensky’s health (kyivindependent.com/national/hacked-ukrainian-radio-stations-broadcast-fakes-about-zelenskys-health)

⚡️ Ukraine’s military destroys 5 Russian strongholds, 2 ammunition depots in southern Ukraine.
Ukraine’s Operational Command “South” reported that it killed 35 Russian troops and destroyed a howitzer, two UAVs, and 11 armored and military vehicles on July 21.

⚡️ WSJ: EU blocks sanctions on Russian metals company fearing retaliation.
The EU blocked a proposal to sanction Russian metals company VSMPO-Avisma PJSC after France and other member states objected over fears of a retaliatory ban on titanium exports from Russia.

⚡️ International creditors extend debt repayments deadline for Ukraine

⚡️ Ukraine’s corruption agency identifies 215 potential collaborators among local deputies, officials.
The National Agency on Corruption Prevention says it has a database of over 1,500 possible collaborators, of which the biggest groups are law enforcement officers and private citizens

⚡️ Canadian Armed Forces: ‘Russia likely no longer has the military capability to achieve its ambitions in Ukraine.

⚡️ Russian railway developments to ruin cultural heritage sites in Crimea.
The Office of the Presidential Representative of Ukraine in Crimea reported that Russia is constructing a new rail track that will run through ancient Crimean burying grounds and archaeological sites.

What is happening with Nord Stream 1? Am I right in thinking it was turned back on yesterday but still at 40% capacity?

Will there be energy rationing in Europe if capacity continues to be 40% over the winter?

losses have just been published. Close to 40 est. dead now.

Dimitry, someone who has taken it on himself to translate a pile of stuff from Russian into English and accesses some useful stuff, ventured a guess about the current Ru numbers in Ukraine. He estimated 135 - 150k.

He did not say if that total was Russian-russian forces or Russian aligned forces (eg Wagner, the separatist soldiers etc). If he wasn't including the Ru-aligned then there will be more. He also didn't say what he based that estimate on.

twitter.com/mdmitri91

His translations are always interesting btw.

Having stumbled on this article in the Kviv Independent (while looking for the one about hackers on Ukraine radio reporting Zelensky as being in ill health Ijsbear mentioned), I thought people might be interested, as I was, to hear of this remarkable Ukrainian woman.

Warning, very sad:

Ukrainian artist Liubov Panchenko died after month of starvation in Russian-occupied Bucha

kyivindependent.com/hot-topic/ukrainian-artist-liubov-panchenko-died-after-month-of-starvation-in-russian-occupied-bucha

There is a claim now that Canada returned the Russian gas turbine because Germany threatened to stop sending any heavy weapons to Ukraine if Canada didn't.

If this is true, and that needs to be ascertained, Germany has proved itself morally bankrupt to go along with faithless considering all the broken promises and the 8 billion to Ukr it's blocked

my companion is German and I admired Germany a great deal over the Syrian crisis, though apparently they have not thought about how to integrate refugees and there are going to be some big problems in the future (they aren't alone in that).

But their handling of the Ukraine war should have been done very differently.

It does seem that it might have been slightly misrepresented.

This is what someone wrote:

This is not the way it was said. Foreign minister Baerbock said she fears that if Germany falls into a gas-related crisis, social unrest might put the government under such pressure that it could not be able to maintain support for Ukraine.

Germany seems to have a problem with a growing right wing movement and higher gas prices will affect people badly (as all over ofc).

This still reads uncomfortably like blackmail to me, but it's possible it was a statement of realistic fear. Trudeau has supported Ukraine to the hilt and he wouldn't have released this turbine lightly at all.

On the better news side: ⏰ The IRIS-T air defense system is still in production in Germany and will be ready for shipment to Ukraine at the end of the summer.

Ill stop spamming but I just couldn't stop myself from this quote from the Russian govt.

MFA Russia 🇷🇺
@mfa_russia
·
4h
Russia government organization
💬 FM Sergey #Lavrov: Our country does not impose anything on anyone or tells others how to live.

☝️ Such an approach to developing inter-State ties dramatically differs from the "master – slave" logic imposed by former metropolitan countries

Moscow Times has also published an article on 9 June that that Russian MOD has received 41666 queries from families about their male family members "missing" in Ukraine war.

Unfortunately whenever you click on English on Moscow Times website, it doesn't give an English version of article but just takes you to English front page 🙄

mobile.twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1550437861186486273 unconfirmed reports that a group of Russian soldiers are surrounded in Kherson

Ijsbear - Today 10:50

Russia government organization
💬 FM Sergey #Lavrov: Our country does not impose anything on anyone or tells others how to live.

Such an approach to developing inter-State ties dramatically differs from the "master – slave" logic imposed by former metropolitan countries

Yes, because who ever was in power in Russia had a continent full of serfs they instead, and secret police to control non serfs.

@minsmum I think it's been confirmed it's not accurate
twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1550453539260055553?s=20&t=K9afh94CKMMizHam34eXcw

@ScrollingLeaves the death of Ukrainian artist Liubov Panchenko died after month of starvation in Bucha is so tragic. They found her but she could not be saved in hospital. Her art is just incredible, such a towering talent, all gone.

I fear that Russian occupation is worst on old women, often widowed, isolated and living alone. They would be trapped in their homes unable to evacuate. I cannot imagine how many have died just from starvation or neglect, if they survived the shelling or Russian soldiers.

@Ijsbear appreciate your key takeaways

The US Senate submitted a draft resolution recognizing the actions of the Russian Federation in Ukraine as genocide of the Ukrainian people

I think it has been clear for some time now that what Russia is doing to Ukraine is genocide. Not sure if this meets the legal definition since Russia denies all atrocities. I note that in Olena Zelenska's address to US Congress, she asked to "help us to stop this terror against Ukrainians". She used the word 'terror' and 'terrorist attacks' rather than 'genocide'.

I hope Russia's actions gets recognised internationally as genocide, for what it is.

Could one copy and paste the relevant bit into Google Translate?

Ah, it looks like it's been wrongly reported, there's been a correction since, to say there were 8k complaints, not 42k. Whenever I try to post a link it links to the wrong article! But if you Google "Over 8K Complaints Filed Against Defense Ministry Amid War In Ukraine – Investigation" you should hopefully find the article.