Ukraine Invasion: Part 29

[MagicFox]

Welcome all, part 29

Ukraine must be getting ready for counterattack on Kherson. I'm guessing this is a warning shot "get out while you can"

Saw an interesting map in one of discussions.

The pink shaded area is firing range of HIMARS at the moment (I think Ukraine was promised some longer range missiles too). The red line in the middle is the front line. Green lines are railways, and pink circles are Ukraine's hits on Russian ammo. You can see they are all located next to railway lines, which was discussed here multiple times that that's what Russia is using. Blue circles are where Russia had to move their ammo depots to take it out of the range of HIMARS. I don't know how well you can see, but the author of the map has calculated how much extra time will be needed to transport these further afield supplies to the front lines. It's quite impressive. In addition to that, unlike artillery, Russia does have a shortage of armoured vehicles to transport stuff, so it's a real logistical nightmare for them.

>Our Kherson guests think the bridge is definitely still useable. It was a warning to the Russians that they can take it out at any time.

The video I saw showed some holes in it. It looked crossable but not at the traffic volume the Russians might sometimes like.

Ah here is the video.

twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1549438790892142592

@Hillsmakeyoustrong · Today 11:01
Completely off on a tangent but I've been wondering about the Mariupol defenders. Especially the woman who sang so beautifully. I know some were released not too long ago but do we know who actually left the plant and if they did I'm supposing they are still in a Russian detention centre.

I wonder too, Hills.

@MMBaranova · Today 18:16
Ah here is the video.
Thank you, that would be difficult to envisage that without seeing it in the video.

What is currently interesting me:

Counteroffensive in Kherson? How might that work? There have just been small gains in the rural areas in the north in recent weeks. Is the idea to go for it in force, or wait until a near-collapse is evident?

If one happens and it has momentum and success, what happens to Kherson city? Does an advance extend across the Dnieper? That might be challenging given the holey bridge (I assume the other bridge up-river at Nova Kakhovka is still intact) and the width of the river there are not intact bridges. There would be known chokepoints if there was a crossing.

Collaborators and turncoats: what became of those who came out of their homes welcoming Chechens and Russians at Severodonetsk when it was first half taken by the Russians? Before the to and fro of fighting and extensive devastation.

Similarly sackings / the enemy within. My understanding of the two top level sackings of Bakanov and Venediktova is that collaborators were found further down the chain of their organisations. I'm not sure how culpable Bakanov and Venediktova are. No doubt more will be revealed.

I haven't been on Russian social media for five or six weeks. I needed the detox. Time for a delve soon to see what themes I can spot among the more ordinary types.

width of the river ++IF++ there.

Russia also diverted -stole- energy and water from Kherson to supply Crimea. They clearly had a plan to capture Kherson early on and managed to take it intact to their advantage. Yes, Crimea is in real need of water, they said early on. The control of East and South Ukr is important for that.

Weird incident yesterday at Russian occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant which killed and hospitalised Russian soldiers, causing panic among their ranks. Does anyone have more info on this no, hadn't heard of this one! sounds very interesting. I know the IAE is worried about what's happening there.

That's a really good map @OwlsDance

@MissConductUS good article. Biased but there's clearly some conclusions been drawn on good evidence.

Thanks for the new thread. Read on the BBC that Russia’s lost so many high and middle-ranking officers that units are now being cobbled together from the survivors, which is contributing to the total lack of military discipline among Russian forces. That being said, this is absolutely no excuse for their army’s total disregard of the rules of war and the war crimes that are being committed. Does anybody have links to useful information about war crimes investigations in Ukraine? I feel horrified at what’s going on whilst the world seemingly looks on pityingly but does nothing. I hope that the perpetrators of these atrocious crimes get their comeuppance.

mobile.twitter.com/200_zoka/status/1549465320615809027 Russia have shot down two of their own planes in two days

@OwlsDance great map.

@MissConductUS I do hope Russian logistics collapses soon. Once their artillery fails, I hope it will quickly lead to a domino effect.

@MMBaranova I too wonder how Ukraine can take back Kherson when Russia is so entrenched.

Ok this one is startling.

Remember that pic of him holding the table while talking to .. shoigu was it? or Gerasimov? not long after the war began.

Look at this video taken today when he's meeting Erdogan, who made him wait 50 seconds (Putin once made him wait 2 minutes), and remember that Putin is trained from youth in absolute body control and body language manipulation and dominance.

twitter.com/Joyce_Karam/status/1549487286966009858

It would be interesting to know what any doctors or nurses reading this make of this clip!

I think it looks like he -can't- keep himself still but also that he seems to be worried to hell and looking for help. I don't think it's going too far to say that something in his body language looks afraid of defeat, almost to the point of distant choked-down panic.

@Ijsbear He looks very... awkward. Agree re not being able to keep himself still.

Looks like he's not very comfortable standing still, keeps shifting his weight from foot to foot.

As one of the comments said, the video is shot with close ups on Putin’s face by Turkey’s Gov news agency Anadolu (AA). Looks like Putin is not on home ground and cannot control the press. Bet Russian news agencies would not release such humiliating footage, considering how closely Putin guards his medical condition.

A sick old man bringing ruin on hundreds of thousands of people, mullions when you consider the grain problems.

He seems unable to contol his mouth

It would be interesting to know what any doctors or nurses reading this make of this clip!

It could be anything from anxiety to a condition that makes it uncomfortable to stand - spinal stenosis, IT band syndrome, sciatica, etc. Or something else.

@MissConductUS I was also thinking anxiety. This is sometimes how I act in awkward situations Especially if this situation is a new one for Putin, having to wait for someone - usually the other way around.

i thought he looked anxious rather than uncomfortable. Feel that my face would be like that if I was nervous about something.

It's happened before, apparently him and Erdogan have a thing going where they make each other wait. But the last time, he looked like he was far more in control of himself.

I wonder if it was an extra, subtle revenge to let that clip be released? 20million views worldwide so far apparently. If I was an up and coming country's leader, I don't think I'd want to hitch myself to the wagon of a man ailing as clearly as this.

anyway:

Key Takeaways

Calls made by Russian nationalist and pro-war voices for the Kremlin to officially define operations in Ukraine as a war, conduct general mobilization, and pursue expanded territorial goals reached a crescendo on July 19 with some criticizing the Kremlin and others claiming that Putin has been preparing for the “Syrianization” of the war all along.

The Kremlin will likely attempt to illegally annex occupied Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts into Russia as early as September 11, 2022.

Russian milbloggers highlighted the Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) failure to fight as they had trained—a critique that helps explain the general Russian failures during the initial invasion of Ukraine.

Russian forces continued efforts to resume offensive operations toward Slovyansk from southeast of Izyum and around Barvinkove.

Russian forces continued ground attacks to the east of Siversk and had partial success in ground attacks to the east of Bakhmut.

Russian authorities are continuing to leverage unconventional sources of combat power to avoid general mobilization.

Russian occupation authorities are escalating law enforcement measures to protect administrative control of occupied areas.

Putin could leverage nuclear threats to deter a Ukrainian counteroffensive into annexed Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts.[11]Ukraine and its Western partners may have a narrowing window of opportunity to support a Ukrainian counteroffensive into occupied Ukrainian territory before the Kremlin annexes that territory.

+++

🤝 Poland will conclude a major military contract with South Korea

💪 France sent six more Caesar self-propelled guns to Ukraine, head of French diplomacy Catherine Colonna said

🌾Presidents of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin and Türkiye Recep Tayyip Erdogan discussed the unblocking of Ukrainian grain exports

📌 Ukraine needs at least 50 HIMARS and M270s to deter Russian attacks, and 100 for a successful counteroffensive

📣 Russian President Vladimir Putin said the Russians withdrew from Kyiv "to create conditions for negotiations" with Ukraine [and ...wait for it ...] ⚡️Official: Russia will have tougher demands if negotiations with Kyiv resume

+++

The Kyiv Independent, [20/07/2022 01:27]
⚡️ US adds Russia to human trafficking, child soldier lists.

The Kyiv Independent, [20/07/2022 01:30]
⚡️Minister: Ukraine may block grain exports to Syria.
Ukrainian Agriculture Minister Mykola Solsky said that the grain exports may be blocked due to Syria purchasing Ukrainian grain stolen by Russia in the occupied territories. According to official estimates, Russia has stolen 500,000 tons of grain from Ukraine.

⚡️Die Welt: German government reduces military support for Ukraine.
Die Welt reported that a list of weapons delivered to Ukraine by Germany shows a reduction in supplies. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has been repeatedly criticized for blocking arms deliveries to Ukraine and breaking his promises on military support

⚡️ WSJ: ‘Ukraine faces difficulties getting western weapons to frontlines.’
According to the Wall Street Journal, Ukraine’s military is having trouble getting western weapons operational at the frontlines, citing a lack of commonalities across weapons.
The provision of different weapons has reportedly turned into a “logistical nightmare,” as ammunition, training, maintenance, and logistics differ across weapon type.

⚡️ Ombudsman: Russia forcibly deports 108 Ukrainian orphans from Donetsk Oblast, places them for adoption.

⚡️ US creates $100 million Ukraine Agriculture Resilience Initiative.
The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) announced on July 19 that the fund is intended to “bolster Ukrainian agricultural exports” and protect against the global food security crisis.

⚡️ Governor: Russian forces kidnap around 400 people in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast Governor Oleksandr Starukh said in a televised address that around 400 civilians, Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant employees, and local administration officials are currently held hostage by Russian forces.

⚡️Germany offers to send 20 Leopard tanks to Ukraine starting April 2023.
German lawmaker Roderich Kiesewetter wrote on Twitter that Germany would deliver one unit per month starting April 2023 and three units per month from October 2023. Germany has been regularly criticized for slowing down or blocking heavy weapons' delivery to Ukraine. [something of a worthless offer given how often Germany, that huge weopons exporter, has blocked transfers and blocked financial transfers and is now not sending the stuff promised]

Putin has very good reason to be nervous. He thought taking Ukraine would be easy and another feather in his cap. Now he's got a real fight on his hands, one he could lose, which would likely be fatal for him.

Hmmmm....

@Ijsbear thanks for the takeaways

Ombudsman: Russia forcibly deports 108 Ukrainian orphans from Donetsk Oblast, places them for adoption.

Those poor poor children. They might have lost their parents in the conflict and now this. This is unbearable. Nobody to look after them. They could be separated from their siblings.

Hes getting into bed with Iran apparently