Ukraine Invasion: Part 29

[MagicFox]

Welcome all, part 29

What does that actually mean? Doesn’t Russia already have all its troops fighting?

It means that civilians can be conscripted en mass. It would produce a lot of extra soldiers, but if they did a mass mobilisation few of them would be well trained.

Perhaps they would do a limited mobilization of ex-servicemen first.

On a happier note:-

Thanks, @tobee that is much needed.

Perhaps they would do a limited mobilization of ex-servicemen first.

I thought they'd already done that? Or maybe it was optional up until now

General mobilisation won't achieve anything. These people need to be trained, and there's no one left to do that. The only thing that it will achieve is that legally you won't be able to refuse to fight anymore. But how much use is that going to be, sending in troops that don't want to be there?

I think they'll be discussing either power plant situation, or the annexed regions

Hope you're right @OwlsDance !

As I understand it, and you and @MMBaranova would know more, the Russian military doctrine seems to rely heavily on artillery ... and on manpower. Hence the uninvestment in pallet loaders etc (Trent Telenko!) 100,000s of new bodies, even untrained, would have some effect both in terms of efficiency, I imagine, and sheer people to throw into the fight. Unless they literally started falling all over each other due to bad organisation.

Kiyv Independent summary of Ukraine: kyivindependent.com/category/explaining-ukraine

ISW

Key Takeaways

Russian forces have lost an area larger than Denmark since the high-water mark of their invasion of Ukraine in mid-March and gained an area the size of Andorra (one percent of what they have lost) in the last 39 days.

Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu reaffirmed that Russia has not changed its maximalist strategic war aims.

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks southwest and southeast of Izyum, northeast and south of Bakhmut, and west and southwest of Donetsk City.

Russian forces conducted a limited ground attack in northwestern Kherson Oblast.

Ukrainian forces continued to target Russian military assets and ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts.

Russian occupation authorities continue to face partisan and internal challenges to the administration of occupation agendas.

Russian proxy leadership is continuing efforts to oversee the legislative and administrative integration of occupied territories into Russian systems.

Extra:

Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu stated on August 24 that Russian troops will be slowing down the pace of offensive operations in Ukraine in a conscious effort to minimize civilian casualties.[1] Shoigu also reiterated that operations in Ukraine are going according to plan and that Russian forces will accomplish all their objectives, supporting ISW’s assessment that Russia’s maximalist strategic war aims in Ukraine have not changed.[2] The Russian MoD has previously issued similar statements to account for the pace of operations in Ukraine.[3]

Shoigu's statement may also represent an attempt by the Russian MoD to set information conditions to explain and excuse the negligible gains Russian forces have made in Ukraine in the last six weeks. Since Russian forces resumed offensive operations following a pause on July 16 Russian forces have gained about 450.84 km2 (roughly 174 square miles) of new territory, an area around the size of Andorra.
Russian forces have lost roughly 45,000 km2 of territory since March 21 (the estimated date of Russian forces’ deepest advance into Ukraine), an area larger than Denmark. As ISW has previously assessed, Russian forces are unable to translate limited tactical gains into wider operational successes, and their offensive operations in eastern Ukraine are culminating. Shoigu’s statement is likely an attempt to explain away these failings.[4]

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⚡️General Staff: Ukraine repels Russia’s offensives in five directions.

US says Russia could announce ‘sham referendums’ in occupied parts of Ukraine this week.

⚡️Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly said Canada plans to return five turbines which are part of the Russian Nord Stream 1 pipeline to Germany.
Previously, Canada released one turbine to Germany, but Russian state-controlled gas giant Gazprom refused to take it back. [Russia showing how they can jerk Germany around again. Apparently Scholz threatened Canada with ... eh, something not to be dismissed ... if he didn't return the turbine. Then Russia didn't take it]

⚡️Bloomberg: European countries have spend about $278 billion mitigating the energy crisis. The Brussels-based think-tank said governments should start reducing energy demand as prices are not likely to fall, Bloomberg reports.

⚡️Russian forces shell Kryviy Rih with Tornado rockets.

⚡️Google to launch anti-disinformation campaign debunking myths about Ukrainian refugees. Google’s subsidiary Jigsaw will run ads on various social networks in Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic to inform about bias in media headlines and falsified information. The campaign aims to build resilience to anti-refugee narratives, in partnership with local non-government organisations, fact checkers, academics, and disinformation experts.

⚡️Russian forces sustain losses in southern Ukraine.
Operational Command “South” reports that they killed 12 Russian troops and destroyed three armored vehicles and an ammunition depot. Ukrainian forces also reportedly hit one Russian command post.

[Unfortunately the Russians located and shelled a Ukrainian military depot, location not released afaik]

⚡️Russia’s war causes $10.7 billion worth of environmental damage.

⚡️ Death toll in Russian attack on passenger train in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast rises to 25.

Ukraine will become the second country in the world to sign a digital trade agreement with the UK
Among the main areas of future cooperation:
▪️financial technologies and payment systems,
▪️open digital markets,
▪️technical cooperation.

❤️ “People's Bayraktar” drones, donated by Baykar, are already being prepared for shipment to Ukraine

🥛Switzerland will help Ukrainian milk producers located in war-torn regions. For this, Ukraine will receive 2.5 million Swiss francs (about $2.7 million). This was reported by the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine.

🛢 The UK did not import fuel from Russia for the first time — Sky News
Imports of goods also fell to 33 million pounds in June, the lowest level since records began in January 1997, according to the Office for National Statistics.

💪Ukrainians won more than 30 medals and set a record in powerlifting at the Warrior Games in the USA
32 athletes from Ukraine came to the competition – both veterans and active servicemen who were injured

❕Traveling to Europe is not a right, but a privilege, and the responsibility lies with the citizens of a country that is at war, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas said

Shoigu said the pace of "special operation" is slow on purpose. He didn't say it will be slowing down even further. A bit inaccurate translation.

And yes, he said the exact same thing before when there was barely any movement. Clearly Russians are getting tired of this, they need to keep saying something.

Putting declared today that Russias income is increasing. Deluded doesn't even describe it. His own finance ministry said the opposite!

The announcement is that Putin has ordered the Russian military to increase its number of soldiers by 137,000.

Fiona Hill piece, "The World Putin Wants
How Distortions About the Past Feed Delusions About the Future"

www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/world-putin-wants-fiona-hill-angela-stent

Depressing article that nevertheless outlines the stakes.

"Is the Russia-Ukraine war a prelude to World War III"

english.alaraby.co.uk/opinion/russia-ukraine-war-prelude-world-war-iii

And this by January 2023. Do you think something else is in the planning to begin jan 2023? Is this mobilisation (voluntary) or mercenaries?!

Interesting piece

Conclusion below sums it up:

"In Putin’s vision, the global South would, at a minimum, remain neutral in Russia’s standoff with the West. Developing nations would actively support Moscow. With the BRICS organization—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—set to expand to include Argentina, Iran, and possibly Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey, Russia may acquire even more partners, ones that together represent a significant percentage of global GDP and a large percentage of the world’s population. Russia would then emerge as a leader of the developing world, as was the Soviet Union during the Cold War.

All this underlines why it is imperative that the West (Australia, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea, the United States, and Europe) redouble its efforts to remain united in supporting Ukraine and countering Russia. In the near term, that means working together to push back against Russian disinformation about the war and false historical narratives, as well as the Kremlin’s other efforts to intimidate Europe—including through deliberate nuclear saber-rattling and energy cutoffs. In the medium to long term, the United States, its allies, and its partners should discuss how to restructure the international and European security architecture to prevent Russia from attacking other neighbors that it deems within its sphere. But for now, NATO is the only institution that can guarantee Europe’s security. Indeed, Finland’s and Sweden’s decision to join was in part motivated by that realization.

As he looks toward a quarter century in power, Putin seeks to build his version of a Russian empire. He is “gathering in the lands” as did his personal icons—the great Russian tsars—and overturning the legacy of Lenin, the Bolsheviks, and the post–Cold War settlement. In this way, Putin wants Russia to be the one exception to the inexorable rise and fall of imperial states. In the twentieth century, Austria-Hungary and the Ottoman Empire collapsed after World War I. Britain and France reluctantly gave up their empires after World War II. But Putin is insistent on bringing tsarist Russia back. Regardless of whether he prevails in Ukraine, Putin’s mission is already having a clear and ironic impact, both on Europe and on Russia’s 22 years of economic advancement. In reasserting Russia’s imperial position by seeking to reconquer Ukraine, Putin is reversing one of the greatest achievements of his professed greatest hero. During his reign, Peter the Great opened a window to the West by traveling to Europe, inviting Europeans to come to Russia and help develop its economy, and adopting and adapting European artisans’ skills. Vladimir Putin’s invasions and territorial expansions have slammed that window shut. They have sent Europeans and their companies back home and pushed a generation of talented Russians fleeing into exile. Peter took Russia into the future. Putin is pushing it back to the past."

By Jan 2023? That is a lot of soldiers to find by Jan 2023. I believe this is the equivalent to numbers Russia had at the start of the war. Did the announcement say how this is going to be achieved?

No it didn't say how, that's what everybody is wondering. Good thread here: twitter.com/massdara/status/1562778971645030406?s=21&t=AvqMSI_Ag7g9WiTshnqfxQ

I believe this is the equivalent to numbers Russia had at the start of the war.

It's roughly equivalent to the number of troops he used to invade Ukraine in February. The whole Russian military is much larger, over a million, most likely.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Armed_Forces

Untrained troops will be sent to the front to clear landmines and reveal Ukrainian positions by drawing fire. There will be little else they are capable of doing.

Another good thread on these numbers: twitter.com/ralee85/status/1562859828112146432?s=21&t=AvqMSI_Ag7g9WiTshnqfxQ

>the Russian military doctrine seems to rely heavily on artillery

Yes no doubt. But there's the Soviet Union of various stages of the Cold War and there is the shambles of today and doctrine and reality might not match up.

Back in 2015 I was very much a bystander in a conversation where a former US artillery soldier's jaw dropped when Russian area fire procedures were explained. It went something like this (and I'm drawing on memory and don't know all the terms).

Faced with an enemy dug in defending across a locality the Americans would get in a shot, see where it landed, adjust, adjust more and once they had all the ranging right, work from there.

The Russians weren't doing that. They did something that came out as Firing Squares. The locality they wanted to hit would be saturated with shelling as if it was a chessboard. So starting at say the top left square they would fire hoping to catch anyone out in the open but more importantly hitting the entrenched from above. Then WITHOUT CORRECTING LIKE THE AMERICANS WOULD they shifted right a bit and fired at that square. Don't exactly hit that area? Doesn't matter.

Then right a bit for the next batch of fire. Right again. And so on to the end of the row. Drop down a row and fire. Then left a bit and fire, left again and so on. Row by row until finished.

The result is that without too much fuss and of course expending a lot of shells you've hit pretty much everything across the intended area. You might be out a bit around the edges, but that doesn't really matter.

@notimagain , not to beat a dead horse, but some additional details on how the Raytheon AGM-88 was integrated in such short order with the MIG-29.

Ukraine's Migs are now able to use U.S. AGM-88 HARM missiles on Russian air defense radars

It seems that the USAF has acquired 21 Fulcrums over the years and have studied them to the last rivet. Their avionics are well understood, and the clever boffins at Raytheon were able to set everything up in record time, possibly cheating a bit by using a tablet computer in the cockpit to control them and display the sensor data from the missile to the pilot and to process target selection and launch commands.

I hope the Russians realize how thoroughly outclassed they are.

@MissConductUS

Many thanks for the article..as you say there have been a few Fulcrums kicking around in the States (including at least one in private hands) so I'm sure the techies will have had a good look at the workings.

The circumstances ("there's a war on") would make it easier to justify abbreviating or even bypassing many the checks/trials that are usually associated with a peacetime integration process.

@MMBaranova That seems very wasteful ... but it does explain why they go in for literally flattening cites and to hell with the occupants.

Cruel.

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Key Takeaways

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northwest and northeast of Slovyansk, northeast and south of Bakhmut, and northwest of Donetsk City.

Russian forces conducted a limited ground attack in northwestern Kharkiv Oblast.

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks in northwestern Kherson Oblast.

Ukrainian forces continued to target Russian military assets and ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in Kherson Oblast.

Russian federal subjects (regions) are continuing recruitment efforts for volunteer battalions, which are continuing to deploy to training grounds in Russia and to Ukraine.

Russian occupation administrators are continuing to take measures to mitigate challenges to their authority and facilitate the economic and educational integration of occupied territories into the Russian system.

[also, heavily editted highlights ... ]

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s August 25 decree to increase the size of the Russian military starting in January 2023 is unlikely to generate significant combat power in the near future and indicates that Putin is unlikely to order a mass mobilization soon. ... Russia...has only about 850,000 active-duty military personnel in 2022 before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine...[2]

Russia’s net training capacity has likely decreased since February 24, since the Kremlin deployed training elements to participate in combat in Ukraine and these training elements reportedly took causalities The Kremlin may ... formally subsume into the Russian military the forces of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics and/or the new Russian volunteer units that are not formally part of the Russian military. The net addition to Russia’s combat power in any such case would be very small.

The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) disconnected from the power grid for the first time in its operational history on August 25. ..... Energoatom stated that the ZTPP is currently supplying the ZNPP with power and that work is ongoing to reconnect one of the ZNPP power units back to the Ukrainian power grid.[5]

Russian sources accused Ukrainian forces of firing at the ZNPP, but Russia has not provided clear evidence of Ukrainian troops striking the plant.[6] As ISW has previously reported, Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) stated that Russian troops deliberately conducted mortar strikes against the ash pits at the ZTPP.[7] The GUR also has not provided clear evidence to support its claims. The Russians’ failure to provide ... evidence] is more noteworthy, however, because Russia controls the ground and could provide more conclusive evidence far more easily than Ukraine could. ...Russian officials had indefinitely extended the order for Ukrainian employees of the ZNPP to stay home.... Russian forces have also heavily militarized the ZNPP since its capture, despite the fact that the facility is far from the front line and at no risk of imminent Ukrainian ground attack.
This pattern of activity continues to make it far more likely that Russian forces have been responsible for kinetic attacks on and around the ZNPP than that Ukrainian forces have been.

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💥 Operational Command “Pivden” (“South”): The Armed Forces of Ukraine destroyed an ammunition depot in the Kherson region

💡The offensive momentum of the russian army in Donbas is exhausted due to russia's inability to convert minor tactical successes into operational ones. Its attacks around Bakhmut and Avdiivka have stalled and will probably no longer bring significant results – Institute for the Study of War.

[I find this significant as the ISW is fairly cautious and doesn't usually claim things unless they are certain, and they have a good track record of results]

🔥 Heavy fires occur in Mariupol. Occupation authorities are ignoring the problem — adviser to the mayor of Mariupol Petro Andriushchenko
The fire in one of the city neighborhoods could not be extinguished immediately due to a lack of water.

📍 Bloomberg: The IAEA mission plans to visit the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant by 5 September

⚡️ British Secretary of State for Defence: The Russian Army has lost more than 80,000 servicemen in Ukraine – killed, wounded, and deserters

📌 Human Rights Watch: Ukraine is the only country where Russian forces use cluster munitions
Large numbers of cluster munitions do not explode immediately but can maim and kill residents for years until they are defused and destroyed.

🇺🇦🇯🇵 The Emperor of Japan wrote a congratulatory letter to Zelensky — Office of the President of Ukraine [on the occasion of independence day]

⚡️ General Staff: The Russian occupiers attempted to advance in the Kharkiv, Sloviansk, Bakhmut, and Avdiivka directions, Ukrainian soldiers suppressed the invaders' efforts to break through the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

📌 Putin increased the number of the Russian Armed Forces by 137,000 military personnel — Presidential Decree
Consequently, together with the new number of military personnel, the total strength of the Russian Armed Forces will be 2,039,758 people (1.15 million are servicemen, and 889,000 of them are full-time staff). Putin instructed the government to allocate funds for this.

💡 Bloomberg: The Czech Republic has proposed a compromise that would make it more difficult for Russians to travel to the EU
The Czech proposal includes a complete suspension of the visa-facilitation agreements with Russia and Belarus. Although this step does not imply a complete ban on Russians and Belarusians entering the EU, it implies an increase in visa fees and also increases the time of processing visa applications and the number of required documents.

✔️ IAEA: The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant has resumed its connection to the fourth line of communication with the Dniprovska power system of Ukraine, but all 6 power units remain disconnected

🛢 Bloomberg: Iran is ready to replace Russian oil for Europe
Iran is aiming to fill the void left behind by Russia in the European oil market if the Middle Eastern country can secure a deal with world powers over its nuclear program.
[Iran's doing well. Close connections with Russia and providing drones and training, plus the US starting to trade iwth them again and negotiating on nuclear issues]

🪖 The Wall Street Journal: The United States to refocus military aid to Ukraine for the long term
President Joe Biden's Administration soon plans to announce a long-term military mission to support Ukraine and appoint a general who will be responsible for the assistance efforts and training of the Ukrainian military.

🔎 Despite sanctions, the Russian Federation earns more than $1 billion a month by trading with the USA — AP News Agency

⚡️Ukrainian MPs propose to expel former members of pro-Kremlin party from parliament.

⚡️Mayor of occupied Melitopol calls on citizens to evacuate before winter.

⚡️Canada moves 2 Super Hercules military transport planes to UK on mission to help Ukraine.

⚡️The US allocates $9 million to collect data on forced deportation, filtration camps in Ukraine.

⚡️Ukraine says Russia uses coercive tactics to enforce policies in temporarily occupied territories.
The Center for Countering Disinformation reports that Russia is manipulating residents through various methods in occupied territories. In Zaporizhzhia Oblast, pensions and other social benefits are not provided without obtaining a Russian passport. Young Luhansk Oblast residents, aged 14-18, are detained and released in exchange for a family member agreeing to fight on the front lines.

⚡️Ukrainian forces destroy communication and logistic hubs in Kherson Oblast.
⚡️Ukraine destroyed 7 Russian ammunition depots in the past week.

⚡️Citigroup exits Russian market, affecting 2,300 employees.

⚡️ISW: Russian occupation administrators continue taking measures to mitigate challenges to their authority. ..... The experts cited the Ukrainian Resistance Center which reported that Russian authorities are offering Ukrainian parents a one-time 10,000-ruble ($165) payment if they apply to send their children to Russian-run schools in occupied parts of Ukraine.

⚡️Kyiv Oblast law enforcement bust drug den worth over $250,000.

Thanks for the round up Ijsbear.

Bulletin from the US dept of state:

Russia’s War on Ukraine: Six Months of Lies, Implemented

www.state.gov/disarming-disinformation/russias-war-on-ukraine-six-months-of-lies-implemented/

@Ijsbear thanks for the Key Takeaways.

✔️ IAEA: The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant has resumed its connection to the fourth line of communication with the Dniprovska power system of Ukraine, but all 6 power units remain disconnected

I believe the situation at the plant is pretty dire. Ukrainian staff are leaving in droves for fear it will explode because of Russian antics or they will be killed by retreating Russian troops if Ukraine military try to take back control.

🛢 Bloomberg: Iran is ready to replace Russian oil for Europe
Iran is aiming to fill the void left behind by Russia in the European oil market if the Middle Eastern country can secure a deal with world powers over its nuclear program.
[Iran's doing well. Close connections with Russia and providing drones and training, plus the US starting to trade iwth them again and negotiating on nuclear issues]

🔎 Despite sanctions, the Russian Federation earns more than $1 billion a month by trading with the USA — AP News Agency

Argh

🪖 The Wall Street Journal: The United States to refocus military aid to Ukraine for the long term
President Joe Biden's Administration soon plans to announce a long-term military mission to support Ukraine and appoint a general who will be responsible for the assistance efforts and training of the Ukrainian military.

Yay! Americans get a hard time generally but their support for Ukraine has been the most sustained and substantial. Feels like the backbone of Ukraine's defence and offence. They must be so grateful. Just hope Ukraine gets to achieve all its military objectives before a shift in US politics.

The Center for Countering Disinformation reports that Russia is manipulating residents through various methods in occupied territories. In Zaporizhzhia Oblast, pensions and other social benefits are not provided without obtaining a Russian passport. Young Luhansk Oblast residents, aged 14-18, are detained and released in exchange for a family member agreeing to fight on the front lines.

This is so incredibly cruel. Imagine my 15 year old son being taken hostage in exchange for me or my Dh. No words.

⚡️Kyiv Oblast law enforcement bust drug den worth over $250,000.

Seems a little odd. I guess there will always be drug dealers.