Ukraine Invasion: Part 29

[MagicFox]

Welcome all, part 29

Any between the lines reading to be done In Putin's statement re Dugina?

@notimagain, we now know the platform the UkAF is using for the AGM-88's and that they are in use.

Ukrainian MiG-29s Are Firing AGM-88 Anti-Radiation Missiles - The Pentagon has now confirmed sending AGM-88 missiles to Ukraine and that they have been integrated onto the country’s MiG-29s.

It understandably doesn't state what modes the integration supports, but it's a real boost to their SEAD capabilities.

notimagain
a reminder to some - including some politicians - that members of HM Forces may actually have to go to war...(as has actually always been the case).

For one of mine, it was Afghanistan. For the other one it was the Gulf war.

finally found it again. www.foreignaffairs.com/china/chinas-new-vassal

📣 Statement of the Azov Regiment on the terrorist attack against the daughter of Russian propagandist Dugin

The woman, whose name and military ID was published by the FSB in the report on the investigation of the terrorist attack against the daughter of Russian propagandist Dugin, has nothing to do with the Azov regiment and never served in the unit.

The so-called document, with which the Russian special services are trying to prove the involvement of "Azov" in blowing up Darina Dugina's car, is in fact nothing more than another "calling card" of Yarosh. And the act of terrorism itself is a preparation for a "tribunal" over the Azov people. After all, in this way Russia warms up the public opinion of its citizens regarding the “necessity” of such a court.

We categorically condemn this illegal trial of the Ukrainian military and call on everyone who has the strength to stop it, to do everything possible so that the so-called “tribunal” does not take place.

Thanks..

Been lots of quite bizarre ideas about what was delivering the AGM-88s, looks like the popular theory was correct...and yes, it would be interesting to see details of integration.

The good news tactically with this is that the Russians will likely pull their air defense units back from the front lines. And after a few units have been taken out, the crews will be very cautious about activating the radar head.

It wouldn't surprise me if the UkAF has created an integration that supports all of the modes available on the AGM-88. They seem to be wizards at the IT aspects of war.

😄

LOL!

Dugina death.

The Azov ID just left behind when fleeing having taken it into Russia is ridiculous.

Quick analysis of fakery of ID here:

twitter.com/IssandJumal/status/1561781504975540225?s=20&t=RiKfFPVXveqf5PS7bY267w

National Republican Army (WHO?) responsible. Hmm. At least someone sat down and wrote a communique. But then someone else faked an ID.

The things they do from Yoshkar-Ola.

I don't think it matters really. Dugin is just a hyped up bearded flea. His daughter was no better than him. It's a distraction.

Which might be what it is supposed to be. Post 2014 so many fellow travellers on the Novorossiya separatist bus were killed, for instance. Except for Girkin/Streltsov, however he seems to have been arrested recently trying to get to the front to sort things out.

meanwhile the Ukrainian forces have been causing havoc at bridges and hitting targets in Crimea very successfully.

Correction: Strelkov didn't get arrested. That was a hoax. I'm clearly out of the loop. Not that I was ever really in it.

Looking at his feed today he has this to say (Google Translate level):

On the Kherson front, the battles for the village of Blagodatne continue. Data on full control over it has not yet been received, although most of it has been under the control of the Russian Armed Forces since the day before yesterday evening. The total depth of the advance of Russian troops in this direction is 3-5 km.

Antonovsky Bridge in Kherson - completely disabled (passage is impossible, although the bridge itself did not collapse) as a result of another missile strike. 2 repairmen were killed, up to a dozen and a half people were injured. Also, the bridge in Nova Kakhovka was shelled again (but is functioning).

Kamil Galeev
@kamilkazani
·
5h
Darya Dugina's assassination was almost certainly organised by the Russian FSB. Assuming this is true, then:

1. Order must've been explicitly/implicitly given by Putin
2. It was Darya, not Alexander who was the target
3. Alexander knew it ofc. He's just making show for a public

twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1561753746870337539

Ijsbear · Today 22:48
Kamil Galeev
@kamilkazani
·
5h
Darya Dugina's assassination was almost certainly organised by the Russian FSB. Assuming this is true, then:

Order must've been explicitly/implicitly given by Putin
It was Darya, not Alexander who was the target
Alexander knew it ofc. He's just making show for a public

twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1561753746870337539

How interesting Ijsbear. I was thinking that no father would be complicit in that, but then saw a Twitter comment underneath about how Alexander Dugin had written about a myth of fathers sacrificing their daughters.

It is very difficult to know what to believe, but I don’t think Ukraine did it, or that woman with her young daughter in tow.

@MMBaranova · Today 22:03
Dugina death.

The Azov ID just left behind when fleeing having taken it into Russia is ridiculous.

Quick analysis of fakery of ID here:

twitter.com/IssandJumal/status/1561781504975540225?s=20&t=RiKfFPVXveqf5PS7bY267w

That forgery is fascinating to see broken down step by step in that way.

@Hillsmakeyoustrong · Today 21:00
📣 Statement of the Azov Regiment on the terrorist attack against the daughter of Russian propagandist Dugin

The woman, whose name and military ID was published by the FSB in the report on the investigation of the terrorist attack against the daughter of Russian propagandist Dugin, has nothing to do with the Azov regiment and never served in the unit.

The so-called document, with which the Russian special services are trying to prove the involvement of "Azov" in blowing up Darina Dugina's car, is in fact nothing more than another "calling card" of Yarosh. And the act of terrorism itself is a preparation for a "tribunal" over the Azov people. After all, in this way Russia warms up the public opinion of its citizens regarding the “necessity” of such a court.

We categorically condemn this illegal trial of the Ukrainian military and call on everyone who has the strength to stop it, to do everything possible so that the so-called “tribunal” does not take place.

Kamil Galeev (Ijsbear’s post later on) sees the motive as Putin wanting to make the Russians feel they are under attack from Ukraine in Russia, and this implication of the ‘Nazi’ Azov battalion adds grist to these machinations.

motive as Putin wanting to make the Russians feel they are under attack from Ukraine in Russia, and this implication of the ‘Nazi’ Azov battalion adds grist to these machinations

Does this mean that Putin feels that he’s losing public support for the war on Ukraine? So he picks someone young, a non politician, and in the public eye but someone who is of no strategic value to die and blame Azov? Whilst the story of a female assassin with a 12yr old DD is completely implausible to outside eyes, it probably will play well for domestic consumption unfortunately.

Key Takeaways

Russian-backed occupation authorities in Zaporizhia Oblast have obliquely declared the independence of the occupied areas of the oblast by falsely identifying Ukrainian citizens entering from unoccupied Ukraine as temporary asylum seekers.

Russian forces conducted localized spoiling attacks southwest and southeast of Izyum.

Russian forces continued ground attacks southeast of Siversk and northeast and south of Bakhmut.

Russian forces continued attempts to advance from the northern and western outskirts of Donetsk City and conducted limited ground attacks southwest of Donetsk City.

Russian forces made marginal gains along the Mykolaiv-Kherson line.

Ukrainian intelligence stated that the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) will start “general mobilization” processes on September 1.

Prymorsky Krai announced the formation of a new repair and service volunteer battalion.

Ukrainian partisans continued to conduct attacks against Russian forces in occupied Melitopol.

---

⚡️CNN: UN announces fact finding team for Olenivka.
According to CNN, the fact finding team is assembled, but “it’s going nowhere” because the UN does not consider the situation around Olenivka to be safe and it is waiting for “proper assurances.”

⚡️Ukraine’s military destroys Russian equipment in southern Ukraine. The Ukrainian army also inflicted significant damage on the strategically crucial Antonivsky Bridge.

⚡️Netherlands to provide Ukraine with at least 65 million euros for reconstruction.

⚡️CBC: Canada unlikely to export gas to Europe, will ‘explore possibilities.'

⚡️Energoatom: Russia builds up military equipment, troops at Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
Ukraine's state nuclear company Energoatom said that Russian forces had brought two more armored personnel carriers and six trucks to the Zaporizhzhia plant located in Russian-occupied Enerhodar. Now Russia has over 40 pieces of military equipment at the plant, according to Energoatom. Russia also deployed additional troops there, the company said.

⚡️Duda arrives in Ukraine ahead of Crimean Platform.
Polish President Andrzej Duda is expected to meet with President Volodymyr Zelensky. Duda’s Office said his visit will also include bilateral talks on the military, economic and humanitarian support for Ukraine.

❌ The invaders blew up the boiler house in Mariupol
The motive for this act remains unknown.

[Quoting a fair bit of this snippet, as the propaganda element within Russia is so important. The Moscow Times is a independent news outlet, now banned within Russia]

TV propaganda weakened, and Russians believe it less
According to the Russian edition of The Moscow Times, since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, the coverage of TV channels has fallen by an average of a quarter, and viewers have preferred the Internet to TV screens in order to find alternative sources of information.
Moreover, before the start of the war, Channel One was watched by 33.7% of Russians, and in July, after the war, it lowered by 25.5%. "Russia-1" is watched by 23% of the population instead of 30.9%, as it was before the attack on Ukraine, and NTV coverage has fallen from 21.1% to 16.6%.
At the same time, the audience reading news on Telegram channels increased from 19.1% to 26.8%. The main criterion for the transition from TV to gadgets was the reduction of entertainment content. A significant part of this drop occurred in the summer months when TV viewing rates are most likely to fall.
However, according to the publication, the real numbers are much lower than those given above.

💬 The US does not support a complete ban on issuing visas to Russians

[Fairly reliable report that a Ukrainian Bayraktar and a helicopter were lost, yesterday.]

One Russian propagandist really didn't do his homework about Bellingcat ...

It becomes so difficult to decipher one starts to question was she really in the car?

I have seen it reported that it is an open coffin, it feels like voyeurism to discuss further

No need. That definitely settles the issue. I have to say it's very worrying if her father is complicit in her death on many levels.

There are clear photos on twitter.

And laughing parents

Very very fishy

I wondered this too but then I was unfortunate enough to see an uncensored photo of the body at the scene and it was awful. I suppose it might not be her body but seems a bit far fetched.

Great article c&pd from the ft.

The autocratic world will split before the west does
The US must act in a patient, even cynical way that stokes divisions among its illiberal adversaries

The best thing about the Sino-Soviet split was that it helped the west win the cold war. The second best was the sublime quality of the comrade-on-comrade hostilities. There were scholarly feuds about the interpretation of Marxist-Leninist scripture. There was the perhaps apocryphal but please-let-it-be-true response of Zhou Enlai, the son of mandarins, to Nikita Khrushchev, the son of toil, when teased for being posh. “We are both traitors to our class.”
Autocrats tend to fall out. The chauvinism that turns them against the west doesn’t suddenly dissolve in their relations with each other. From Operation Barbarossa to the Iran-Iraq war, what saved the liberal cause in the 20th century, besides American power, was the elusiveness of a common front against it.
The west must ensure the same thing happens in the 21st century. This means cultivating rogue regimes at times. It means teasing out the tensions between them. Autocracies are no less prone to quarrel than they were 50 years ago, when Richard Nixon shook Zhou’s hand amid the Peking-Moscow rift. The question is whether the west still has the art and cynicism to exploit the fact.
This summer, Joe Biden bumped fists with the Saudi crown prince that he wasted 18 months shunning as a brute. The displeasure of US liberals was loud. But it will be as nothing next to the rage of the right if he makes a similar overture to Iran. Gingerly, the White House is testing domestic opinion in advance of a potential revival of the nuclear pact.
There are sound enough arguments against either or both of these rapprochements. But they must be weighed against the fact that both Saudi Arabia and Iran have alternative suitors in China and Russia. Both also have the wherewithal to ease the west’s energy problem. Even if, adjusting for all that, it is still right to freeze them out, the US will have to form relations of convenience with other unpleasant regimes in future. Or maintain existing ones. It cannot do so if it commits to a “democracies versus autocracies” .
Fears abound of western exhaustion with the Ukraine war. The historical record suggests the authoritarian world will fracture first: if not over this, then something else. While liberal countries tend to be liberal in much the same way, there are flavours of autocracy, and they pair badly. The ethnic chauvinist hates the universal Marxist. The cleric hates the colonel. Two theocracies of different denominations hate each other. “Axis” was a kind word for a group of second world war belligerents — Germany, Italy and Japan — that rarely viewed each other as racial or civilisational equals.
Even where the ideologies match, raw egoism is the spoiler. A Kremlin grievance with Washington is that Russia is not viewed there as a great power. Its answer: to throw in its lot with a China that has 10 times the population and no obvious delicacy towards junior partners. The Sino-Soviet split began within a decade of the start of the cold war. Who sees this Russian-Chinese tryst lasting much longer?
It is not enough for the US to wait things out, though. It must be an active stoker of divisions. But that will require domestic politics that doesn’t go into meltdown each time the president uses cynical means to secure a liberal end.
The oddest thing about US statecraft is the combination of brilliant tactical flexibility and a refusal to acknowledge it in retrospect. The idea has taken hold that America got where it is by “standing up for our values”. In fact, the “rules-based liberal order” is also the accretion of lots of moral compromises in the past.
With a nuclear monopoly and a vast share of world economic output, there is a case for Harry Truman in mid-1945 being the most powerful human being who has ever lived. And still he didn’t feel able to purge Germany of all its ancien regime. He kept the emperor of Japan on the Chrysanthemum Throne. The CIA that he invented wasn’t above a bought election or coup d’état. If the US made moral accommodations at the all-time peak of its powers, how much more expedient will it have to be now?
Too expedient to avoid domestic rancour, it seems. The cries from the left (“sellout”) and right (“appeasement”) are distinct, but amount to the same constraint on foreign policy. The US, Nixon included, squandered resources and intellectual effort in the early cold war on the mistaken notion of “monolithic communism”. It shouldn’t fall for monolithic autocracy. Eventual victory lies in sensing then exploiting the cracks within illiberalism. While ethical squeamishness is natural, the higher ethic is to win.
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The photos I've seen look very well for someone who was blown up. Not that I'm any expert in these things.