back again.
The updates tend to be quite long. If people find them spammy then say so and I'll curtail them a bit
Also, some IT admin on the ISW site was dozy and forgot to renew their certificate! my IT companion says that it's not going to be a problem in this case, as one doesn't enter personal info on the site.
Key Takeaways
Russian officials remain confused about the August 9 attack on the Saki Air Base in Russian-occupied Crimea, over 225km behind Russian lines, which destroyed at least eight Russian aircraft and multiple buildings.
The Kremlin’s changing plans suggest that occupying forces are most likely to move up the date of the annexation referenda in occupied Ukraine. Annexation makes it harder to imagine any negotiated settlement to the war on any terms that Ukraine or the West could accept, demonstrating that the Kremlin is fundamentally unserious about ending the war on any terms short of a Ukrainian surrender.
Iran reportedly began training Russian forces on Iranian UAV systems in recent weeks, demonstrating the deepening military cooperation between Iran and Russia.
Russian forces conducted ground attacks west of Izyum.
Russian forces continued limited ground assaults northeast and west of Bakhmut and likely made marginal gains in these areas.
Russian forces made marginal gains northwest of Donetsk City and are continuing attempts to push northwestward from current footholds on the outskirts of Donetsk City.
Russian forces conducted multiple unsuccessful offensives north and northeast of Kharkiv City.
Russian forces conducted an unsuccessful reconnaissance-in-force operation in northwestern Kherson Oblast
Russia’s Oryol Oblast is reportedly forming a volunteer battalion.
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www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russia-and-iran-double-down-their-strategic-partnership well worth reading.
Putin may seek to benefit from Iranian leaders’ experience operating under heavy international sanctions and building military systems with devalued currencies and limited access to foreign parts. He is also apparently no longer trying to curb Iran's incursions into Syria.
Iran's leverage with Russia has increased.
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⚡️Ukraine resumes transit of Russian oil to Hungary, Slovakia via Druzhba pipeline.
⚡️US backs creating demilitarized zone around Russian-occupied nuclear plant.
⚡️Report: Russian oil production falls less than 3% compared to pre-war levels in July. (However, their revenues have significantly increased)
⚡️Turkey begins issuing long-term residency permits to Crimean Tatars in August.
⚡️Ukrainian military targets Russian stronghold, ammunition depot in the south
⚡️Official: School students to learn how to avoid mines.
⚡️Two export ships to leave Ukraine on Aug. 12.
⚡️Reuters: Ukraine’s top cyber official attends Black Hat hacker convention in US.
Victor Zhora, deputy head of Ukraine’s State Special Communications Service, attended a Black Hat hacker convention in Las Vegas on Aug. 10, according to Reuters. In his address, he said Ukraine has experienced 1,600 “major cyber incidents” since the invasion — triple the pre-war numbers. Zhora mentioned that the country has been moving its data to European data centers, with Microsoft, Amazon, and Google offering pro-bono cloud services.
⚡️Bloomberg: War sets Russian economy back 4 years in a quarter.
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🛫 The Russian invaders have lost two squadrons of the latest Su-35 aircraft in Ukraine since the beginning of the full-scale war. Now the Russians are planning to use old bombers — the General Staff.
⚡️UN Security Council meeting regarding the situation around the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant started in New York
📉 According to the International Energy Agency, oil production in Russia will decrease by about 20% at the beginning of next year, as the EU embargo will come into force in December 2022.
⚡️Up to 40% of Russian officers and generals, who planned the war in Ukraine, were removed from their offices. The Minister of Defense, Sergei Shoigu, and Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the Russian General Staff, retain their positions only because the Kremlin fears discrediting the top leadership.
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Results of the meeting of the UN Security Council regarding Zaporizhzhia NPP
▪️ IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi urged the parties to provide the mission with access to the Zaporizhzhia NPP. However, he noted that at present there is no threat to the safety of the nuclear power plant;
▪️ Russia's permanent representative to the UN, Nebenzya, accuses the Ukrainian Armed Forces of shelling the nuclear power plant. He argues this position by the fact that Russia has no reason to attack "neither itself, nor the station, nor Enerhodar." Nebenzya also said that the Russian Federation is ready to support the IAEA mission and will do everything to make it happen before the end of August;
▪️ Permanent Representative of Ukraine Serhiy Kislitsa said that the only way to eliminate the nuclear threat is to withdraw Russian troops and return control of the station to Ukraine. The US also called for the same;
▪️ The representative of China, who currently chairs the UN, called on Russia and Ukraine to return to peace talks.