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Ukraine Invasion: Part 29

1000 replies

MagicFox · 18/07/2022 08:11

Welcome all, part 29

OP posts:
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108
Wannago · 08/08/2022 09:53

AndreaC74 · 08/08/2022 09:26

Russia has zero claim on Ukraine but China & Taiwan? Neither the UK or the USA recognise it as an independent country, very few countries do.

Pelosi has just stirred up a hornets nest and made Taiwan's future even more uncertain.

Its really got nothing to do with the West.

But what we should urgently be doing is on-shoring/moving manufacturing out of China, not selling 'chip companies to the Chinese.

Should also stop all this Chinese influence/funding of UK uni's.

We appear to have learnt nothing from the mistakes made with Russia and Putin.

The Times on Saturday had a different view: - here is the link - www.thetimes.co.uk/article/china-talks-tough-on-taiwan-but-an-invasion-would-be-harder-than-it-looks-wrhtcxvjt

I don't know how to do a share token (could somebody tell me - I have a subscription, but can't see any way of doing this?) and it is all really worth reading - but here are some key paragraphs:

"To hear the way China tells it (and as repeated by too many lazy commentators), Taiwan is unfinished business from the Chinese civil war, which ended in 1949 with the communists seizing power on the mainland and the defeated nationalists of Chiang Kai-shek fleeing to Taiwan. This is plain wrong: Taiwanese history did not begin in 1949. Its history is long, rich and distinct.

China’s claim of sovereignty is highly problematic. Taiwan has all the attributes of a nation state, and a very successful one at that. The fact it is not recognised as such and is denied its formal right to self-determination is down to Beijing’s bullying of anybody — from celebrities to companies and countries — who would question its dubious narrative.

It was about six millennia ago that ancestors of the Taiwanese indigenous peoples settled on the island. Mainland Chinese and Europeans, including the Spanish and Dutch, joined them between the 13th and 17th centuries. The Dutch were defeated by a Chinese general in 1661; 22 years later the island was annexed by the Qing dynasty, which ceded it to Japan in 1895. In 1960s it entered a period of rapid economic growth known as the Taiwan miracle.

It was Japan, during its occupation of Taiwan from 1895 to 1945, that coined the phrase “unsinkable aircraft carrier” to describe the island’s strategic importance. It has been described as the “cork in the bottle” of the South China Sea, controlling access between southeast and northeast Asia. Japan is acutely aware that keeping these shipping lanes open is essential to its national survival, and has increasingly linked its own national security with that of Taiwan.

Tokyo is deeply unnerved by the prospect of Taiwan falling under the control of an increasingly hostile and aggressive Beijing. Japanese officials have concluded that China’s imperial ambitions in north Asia are unlikely to stop at Taiwan.

The United States knows that if China took Taiwan it would irreversibly shift the balance of power in Asia and beyond. For his part, Xi is increasingly boxed in. He has made the “recovery” of Taiwan a key part of his “Chinese Dream” of national rejuvenation. To try and to fail would almost certainly lead to his downfall and possibly that of the CCP."

Do see the rest of it, which talks about Ukraine and how this war is being studied by both side. Sorry I don't know how else to share, and it is a long article.

ScrollingLeaves · 08/08/2022 10:01

@AndreaC74 · Today 09:26
Russia has zero claim on Ukraine but China & Taiwan? Neither the UK or the USA recognise it as an independent country, very few countries do.

Pelosi has just stirred up a hornets nest and made Taiwan's future even more uncertain.

Its really got nothing to do with the West.

But what we should urgently be doing is on-shoring/moving manufacturing out of China, not selling 'chip companies to the Chinese.

Should also stop all this Chinese influence/funding of UK uni's.

We appear to have learnt nothing from the mistakes made with Russia and Putin.

Re: “Should also stop all this Chinese influence/funding of UK uni's.

I’d agree with you in one sense, and definitely about being owned by China, but on the question of students coming to study here, I think it can help if Chinese people form friendships with people from the West and there can be more common understanding.

ScrollingLeaves · 08/08/2022 10:14

Wannago · Today 09:53
Re: Excerpts from the Saturday Times article about Taiwan and its independent roots going far back into the past - not, as many assume, to 1949.

Thank you very much. I had no idea of this from the general rhetoric.

Wannago · 08/08/2022 12:41

ScrollingLeaves · 08/08/2022 10:14

Wannago · Today 09:53
Re: Excerpts from the Saturday Times article about Taiwan and its independent roots going far back into the past - not, as many assume, to 1949.

Thank you very much. I had no idea of this from the general rhetoric.

I think China has been somewhat at pains to keep it that way.

Interestingly in the comments under the article also this:

"Excellent article, you could add to it by showing how China has never actually governed the whole of Taiwan ( except of course since 1945 with The Republic of China) You could also add to the the article by showing ancient maps of China (undoctered by the CCP) which do not show Taiwan as part of China. It is only more recently that China has claimed Taiwan."

AndreaC74 · 08/08/2022 14:09

I know its a bit of a diversion from the thread, so sorry.

But my point is Taiwan isn't a country as such, its not recognised by the West and we have to deal with the world as it is, not how we want it to be.

We have huge issues atm, not least Climate Change, we need China on side and my impression pre Pelosi, is China would accept a gradually, peaceful integration or perhaps even the status quo.

As far as i can see, her visit has just made a forceful takeover (Sanctions & Blockades rather than military attack) far more likely and that could have severe consequences for the globe.

As one military expert said, China has seen what the Wests response would be & its not much, certainly nothing militarily.

There is a lot of Chinese state interference in UK Uni's, as there are in Comms, we need to be very much aware of this.
Having Russians in the UK & the West hasn't exactly helped us.

katem98 · 08/08/2022 14:12

I personally think you've hit the nail on the here there, @AndreaC74.

FrenchBoule · 08/08/2022 14:13

Apparently butchers from Bucha are dead. 64th Motorised Brigade that tortured and killed civilians in Bucha.
Screenshot from Telegram published on one of Polish news websites.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 29
Hillsmakeyoustrong · 08/08/2022 14:20

I don't think it's a diversion but more of an expansion of the discussion. I can't comment as I know very little about China but I enjoy reading the posts.

Ukrainian forces have hit 6 logistical routes and bases of the occupiers in the Kherson region. Overnight.

This was reported today by War Monitor 👆.

I have heard from the Mykolaiv area that it is extremely hard going at the moment for Ukraine and they have not yet succeeded as planned.

ScrollingLeaves · 08/08/2022 15:24

@Hillsmakeyoustrong · Today 14:20

I don't think it's a diversion but more of an expansion of the discussion. I can't comment as I know very little about China but I enjoy reading the posts.

Same hear. Thank you @AndreaC74
You have made me think. I too am ignorant about it all but feel concerned.

Ukrainian forces have hit 6 logistical routes and bases of the occupiers in the Kherson region. Overnight.

This was reported today by War Monitor👆

I have heard from the Mykolaiv area that it is extremely hard going at the moment for Ukraine and they have not yet succeeded as planned.

I am very sorry to hear that. Thank you for passing on the information though.

AndreaC74 · 08/08/2022 15:34

@ScrollingLeaves

thankyou, i have my moments... just not very often.

notimagain · 08/08/2022 17:42

MissConductUS · 08/08/2022 00:14

@notimagain , it's been reported that the UAF has received American AGM-88 antiradar missiles. No info on what platform they're firing them from. The have recently reported the destruction of many Russian air defense systems.

twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1556286860128931843

Thankyou, will look harder at that later.

Ijsbear · 08/08/2022 18:44

Taiwan doesn't want to be taken over (thats what 'integration' means in this context, let's be clear). The Taiwanese haven't wanted of be part of China since the Kuomintang went there over 70 years ago.

They've had the example of Hong Kong. Promises and guarantees of independent political systems were broken relatively fast - hence the deep civil unrest under Carrie Lam.

China's occupation of Tibet is very far from peacefully accepted. No peaceful contented land has the number of heavily armed military guard quarters and outposts, the barbed wire and the atmosphere of fear.

Where is the Dalai Lama's heir? Why did the Dalai Lama have to flee when China took over?

Taiwan has self governance and free information at the moment. Of course they're not going to want to join China, where these things are forbidden. The only reason other countries haven't acknowledged Taiwan's independence, which is what Taiwan wants, is because of not wanting to offend China -ecause- it's big and powerful.

Have people forgotten the Uyghurs completely?

China has been getting ready to flex its muscles much more strongly for a long time and now its happening, to the Uyghurs and towards Taiwan. Pelosi's visit has brought it closer to the surace but this was always going to happen.

Let's not forget that a country who wants peace would not blockade Taiwan and fire live missiles over it.

This is China's aggression, not Pelosi's.

AndreaC74 · 08/08/2022 19:33

@Ijsbear We could have recognised Taiwan decades ago, when China wasn't anything like the power it is today.

In the case of China's HR abuses (or killings as i'd prefer to call them) & they started way before the Uyghurs, Tibet for starters...

Yet we in the west have been fostering more and more trade with China, greater and greater off shoring, using them to fund rail and nuclear power projects, Govt & Uni CCTV, inc Police and military establishments and in the 6 or 7 years i've been on here, no one batted an eyelid... so why the angst over a few ships and missiles now?

Pelosi, of course isn't the aggressor, China is but Xi is not not previous leaders, he is their Putin or actually more Stalin and there is bigger fish to fry her, losing Chinese support to not arm Russia or supply them with the hi tech they need for their weapons programs, will have far reaching consequences for Ukraine and for us in Europe too.

I really don't know what Pelosi has achieved.

Ijsbear · 08/08/2022 20:00

I'd agree that Taiwan should have been recognised a long time ago!

I think that Puin's invasion triggered things. The likelihood of China trying to take over Taiwan greatly increased, I think. Pelosi's visit now is the sign to China that the US will not simply stand back if China invades.

(God knows how things will actally develop though!)

AndreaC74 · 08/08/2022 20:49

The US wont do anything, China isn't Russia and Taiwan is an island next to some pretty powerful military.
A few mlaws wont hold them back.

Plus Taiwan is needed by us all for their 'chip manufacturing capability, we've, once again, put profit before common sense and have become reliant of yet another very un savory regime.

As i said, conflict, even a diplomatic one, will mean China supplying Russia with god knows what.

ScrollingLeaves · 08/08/2022 21:28

I don’t know what has come of the plans but the Biden administration 2021 was planning on becoming less dependent on China for Rare Earth. It would be good if they have followed through and will be less reliant on China for that. One thing to hope though would be that they find a way for it to be mined less pollutingly.

www.cnbc.com/2021/04/17/the-new-us-plan-to-rival-chinas-dominance-in-rare-earth-metals.html

Wannago · 09/08/2022 00:42

AndreaC74 · 08/08/2022 20:49

The US wont do anything, China isn't Russia and Taiwan is an island next to some pretty powerful military.
A few mlaws wont hold them back.

Plus Taiwan is needed by us all for their 'chip manufacturing capability, we've, once again, put profit before common sense and have become reliant of yet another very un savory regime.

As i said, conflict, even a diplomatic one, will mean China supplying Russia with god knows what.

I am not so sure. I think the issues regarding Taiwan are very, very similar to the issues regarding Ukraine. Everybody assumed that the the US would do nothing there too. And if it had been quick, I don't think they would have done, to be honest.

Again from this Saturday Times article:

"The Ukraine war has demonstrated how a determined underdog can thwart the ambitions of a much larger and more powerful rival, and it is being studied on both sides of the Taiwan Strait. Last week’s military exercises around Taiwan, although vast, were an exercise in intimidation — a militarised tantrum. An invasion would be more difficult. By some estimates up to two million troops would be required, and Taiwanese strategists have likened the waters separating them from China to the road into Kyiv, where the Russian army was repulsed.

“The Taiwan Strait is actually the highway for the Chinese army, where they are most vulnerable,” said Su Tzu-yun, a research fellow at the Institute for National Defence and Security Research in Taipei, a military-linked group. “That’s our opportunity,” he told me.

Perhaps Taiwan’s most important allies are its geography and the climate of the Strait. There are only 14 beaches regarded as suitable for an amphibious landing. Then there are the treacherous waters and winds of the Taiwan Strait, known as heishuigou, or “black ditch”, which means there are only two realistic windows for an invasion every year — late March to the end of April, or late September to the end of October."

Again, similar to Ukraine, if the Taiwanese are able to keep on fighting, I can't see why the US would not be drawn in in the same way. They need to be able to withstand that initial onslaught.

Wannago · 09/08/2022 00:45

And in terms of the morality - again from that Saturday Times article:

"Taiwan is a linchpin in the global high-tech economy. It dominates production of the chips that are so crucial to our digital lives, and which sit at the heart of everything from cars, smartphones and laptops to aircraft and weapon systems. At the top end, Taiwan’s dominance is almost complete. It produces an astonishing 90 per cent of the most advanced chips — the quickest, smallest and most crucial to the technologies of the future.

But semiconductors are not the only reason why Taiwan matters. Economically, politically and strategically, there is no other potential conflict on the planet where the stakes are so high — and there are few countries so deserving of support as Taiwan.

The inevitable analogy is Cold War West Berlin, that vibrant island of walled-off freedom that was surrounded by communist East Germany, and which of course suffered its own blockade. As is increasingly the case with Taiwan, the very existence of West Berlin enraged the dictator next door and came to symbolise something far bigger — a set of principles, ideas and values, facing off against an existential threat.

Taiwan is a flourishing democracy of 24 million people. It threatens the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) because it represents an alternative model of what China could become. The political gulf between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait has never been wider — Xi Jinping, the CCP leader, has created a grim and repressive surveillance state, built around the cult of Xi, while Taiwan has become one of the most liberal and open societies in the world.

Taipei celebrates diversity, while Xi sees diversity as a threat to be crushed. Taiwan embraces a civic nationalism, underpinned by pride in what it has achieved, while under Xi the CCP has become a party of resentful and aggressive ethnic nationalism with echoes of 1930s Germany."

Wannago · 09/08/2022 01:08

What you are saying about Taiwan is exactly the view that many (particularly Americans opposed to what Biden is doing) express about Ukraine. A far off country on the doorstep of Russia so who cares what they want or who they are or how bravely they might fight. We have bigger fish to fry (and an economy to fix). Realpolitik and all that.

Ultimately though, a lot of the reason I am so strongly supporting Ukraine is the moral aspect. Unlike so many of the world's other wars, there really is a good side and and a bad side. Nobody's perfect, but the moral contours are very clear.

But increasingly the same is true of Taiwan. That might not have been the case 25 years ago - just as I am not sure it was the case 25 years ago in Russia and Ukraine either - did the Ukrainian dictators who were ruling Ukraine 25 years ago have the support of the their people and have the best interests of the people at heart? It is because of things like Maidenek and democracy and all the changes that have happened in Ukraine over the last few years (along with the reversion into totalitarianism that is modern day Russia) that is what makes it a just cause.

But if you agree with this and it is not just about Realpolitik, then the same rules should be applied to Taiwan. Even if China has been, as is usually the case, better than Russia at doing whatever it wants to do, in this case in persuading the world that others who say they are different and have on the ground strongly differentiated are actually the same as their people and need to be brought, by force, into their jurisdiction.

I initially wasn't sure that Nancy Pelosi did the right thing by going to Taiwan. But then it occurred to me - if Biden had gone to Ukraine (instead of just Boris and Liz) when they had good intelligence that Putin was planning an invasion - would it have been the right thing to do? Was it right for Boris and Liz to try and support Ukraine in the public way they did? In retrospect I think it would have been right and it was right. And if it was, then why am I objecting to this? Because China is further away? Because China is even scarier than Russia? Neither of those seem like good moral reasons.

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 09/08/2022 06:41

Wannago
What you are saying about Taiwan is exactly the view that many (particularly Americans opposed to what Biden is doing) express about Ukraine. A far off country on the doorstep of Russia so who cares what they want or who they are or how bravely they might fight. We have bigger fish to fry (and an economy to fix). Realpolitik and all that.

That's nothing new. I have recently read the war diary of an Englishwoman who went abroad and joined the war effort in the Middle East, and early on in it there is an extract from a letter from what she describes as "An amusing, sophisticated and travelled American" who was a friend of hers. He wrote from Wall Street:

"10th October 1939

"The feeling here is intense against involvement although sentiment is pro-Ally.
Americans, you know, revere sagacity and there are some of us who think Hitler has the finest brain in Europe, if not in the world today and that with such a leader Germany is sufficiently powerful to do a lot of unpleasant things if you insist. It would seem foolish to me to go on, killing hundreds of thousands and squandering pounds sterling to the ultimate end of fostering communism in all Europe.

"I honestly don't think you have a chance of defeating Germany, and if you do, the communists will take over. Of course this does not make pleasant reading, but I must say, after the Baldwins and MacDonalds etc., you English should enjoy a little realism.

...

"If England doesn't negotiate a peace within six months, I shall be both surprised and shocked. False pride and foolish alliances are no reason for war and when it comes to broken promises, well, Hitler may have a high score but England and France are close seconds..."

I got a strong feeling of familiarity when I read this passage; I have read editorials recently which seem to be saying much the same sort of thing. It amounts to "lie back and be raped; we care more about a threat which may materialise than one which is overt and apparent at this moment. You don't have a chance. And anyway, the people being attacked are as bad as the attacker really."

AndreaC74 · 09/08/2022 08:17

@Wannago There are few similarities between Taiwan and Ukraine.
Taiwan isn't recognised as a country
No land border with friendly countries, indeed, Japan aside, no nearby friendly countries or rather countries that would take the US side.
Size.
ALL of Taiwan could be attacked and destroyed before the US even got a plane in the air.
Chinese military is a completely different one to Russia.

China can blockade Taiwan if they wish and starve the world of its exports which are vital in our hi tech industries and next gen computing.

Whether they will take further action or not, will not depend on the US military response but on the economic and diplomatic cost an invasion would bring to Chinas doorstep..

prettybird · 09/08/2022 09:29

Not sure if this has been posted https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/columns/2022/08/5/7362086/

His language is a bit flowery but he gets the point across. I think it could have been stronger if he’d presented the points in the last paragraphs earlier on.

Wannago · 09/08/2022 09:33

If England doesn't negotiate a peace within six months, I shall be both surprised and shocked. False pride and foolish alliances are no reason for war – and when it comes to broken promises, well, Hitler may have a high score but England and France are close seconds..."

I got a strong feeling of familiarity when I read this passage; I have read editorials recently which seem to be saying much the same sort of thing. It amounts to "lie back and be raped; we care more about a threat which may materialise than one which is overt and apparent at this moment. You don't have a chance. And anyway, the people being attacked are as bad as the attacker really."

Yes, exactly @AskingQuestionsAllTheTime that is precisely it, it seems to me. The parallels to WW2 seem to run very deep, both Ukraine and Taiwan. And the Japanese bombing Pearl Harbor would seem to have done England a huge favour. Never studied that aspect of it, but come to think of it, why did they do it? Was it hubris? They could have gobbled up all of Asia and even Australia without bringing the US into the war, couldn't they?

Ijsbear · 09/08/2022 09:58

I think if China tried to blocade Taiwan now to the point of not letting trade go on, they'd be in for a shock. The West needs and depends on those semi conductors.

I wonder if Japan would take steps too. China and Japan are not friendly at all.

Ijsbear · 09/08/2022 09:59

Japan has just protested the Chinese incursion into their territory during the Chinese intimidation of Taiwan.

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