Ukraine Invasion: Part 29

[MagicFox]

Welcome all, part 29

@TiddyTidTwo there are no words. It must hit you harder as you are ex army

Since that incident, there have been 2 other atrocities reported on Ukraine POWs in Olenivka barracks and in Popasna.

I refuse to believe that the perpetrators are not human.

And if we consider what might have been, think about Trump's re-election. He was clearly in Putin's pocket, and - IIRC - talking about reducing support for NATO. We would then be in the position of Europe v Russia/China/Iran/USA. Very scary.

@CornwallLass good point and one I have pushed to the back of my mind at the sheer horror, so thanks for reminding.

Losing the support of the US would be an unmitigated disaster of epic proportions for Ukraine and the global world order.

@CornwallLass @blueshoes Yes, and that could still happen

Well, although the US clearly won't align with China and Iran but they could still withdraw support if eg a Trumpian gets elected in the mid terms

Just saw this posted by The Guardian, I personally really like the last bit and have to say I agree.

"The New York Times warns the US that “treating China as a hostile power is a counterproductive oversimplification” of geopolitics and notes that “the uncomfortable reality is that the US and China need each other” as evidenced by robust trade that has continued between the two nations even as other communications, about military cooperation and action on the climate crisis, have been suspended by China.
And the paper says adds that the US “needs to move past the old idea that economic engagement would gradually transform Chinese politics and society,” suggesting that “instead of trying to change China, the United States should focus on building stronger ties with China’s neighbors” because behaving unilaterally makes America less effective on the regional and world stages."

mobile.twitter.com/KristiRaik/status/1556337863373062146 a really good thread about the damage that that amnesty international report has done to it's reputation as well as the damage to Ukraine

It's the replies that are interesting, the report being tweeted by the Russian embassy that called for the execution of Ukrainian POW yellow you all you need to know. I have cancelled my direct debit

On Russia gathering troops in Kherson - well, they can't just sit there and wait for Ukrainian attack, they need to do something. However, just because they are getting ready for counterattack, doesn't mean they'll actually be able to carry it out. They have massive logistical issues, and it doesn't look like they are going to be resolved any time soon.

To force peace talks

@minsmum · Today 20:51
mobile.twitter.com/KristiRaik/status/1556337863373062146 a really good thread about the damage that that amnesty international report has done to it's reputation as well as the damage to Ukraine

minsmum · Today 20:58
It's the replies that are interesting, the report being tweeted by the Russian embassy that called for the execution of Ukrainian POW yellow you all you need to know. I have cancelled my direct debit

Thank you, minsmum. The Russians have evidently made good use of it already. I read through a lot of replies and came to this cartoon which explains in a nutshell what Amnesty’s stance has been.

@OwlsDance · Today 21:35

“ScrollingLeaves · Yesterday 23:30

“minsmum · Today 20:41
mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1555859334101405698 concerns about the zaphorizhzha nuclear plant after Russian shelling”

This is so worrying. Why would Russia be so insane as to shell it?

To force peace talks

Thanks, I can see that that might make sense.

@notimagain , it's been reported that the UAF has received American AGM-88 antiradar missiles. No info on what platform they're firing them from. The have recently reported the destruction of many Russian air defense systems.

twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1556286860128931843

Unfortunately, I think I disagree with at least some part of what is quoted.

Lets transpose some names to see why:
"the uncomfortable reality is that Germany and Russia need each other" as evidenced by robust trade that has continued between the two nations even as other communications ... have been suspended .."

Think about it. Think about how badly Germany has turned out in fact to need Russia and how difficult it has been to put an end to that robust trade. Obviously it is highly complicated, but "needing" a rogue state due to essential trade can be highly problematic.

I do agree that the US "needs to move beyond the idea that economic engagement would gradually transform Chinese politics and society" and that engaging with neighbors, particularly those neighbors who have or will bear the brunt of any Chinese wrath, is sensible. But to do this in lieu of working out how to make sure that one is not dependent on the trade in order to function, and will not in fact be hamstrung should sanctions be needed, seems highly risky to me as has been proven by the pickle German is in.

A Russian military analyst gives a surprisingly candid evaluation of how the war is going. I hope this doesn't lead to his untimely defenestration.

wartranslated.com/russian-defence-research-expert-on-afu-performance-the-effect-of-western-weapon-supplies/

So have I recently - but I did it when Amnesty did the same thing to Israel. I know you guys don't want to hear this, but it is a classic case of "first they came for the Jews..." Bizarrely, that ends up making me at least somewhat pleased about this report (although very sorry for the Ukrainians, who did not need this)- at least it has blown Amnesty's cover, and decent people who have not known enough to know what they have been playing at recently might start taking another look, whereas when it is just Jews it doesn't work like that.

I will go away as I don't want to derail your thread, but I just had to comment.

Yes @Wannago, I see what you mean.

I am hoping that the 'China and US needing each other' part is what is going to stop this from going any further.

I'm not sure if being less dependant on each other would in fact give China more of a 'what have we to lose' attitude iyswim.

I couldn't be further away from clued up on world affairs but this is just my 2+2 kind of viewpoint.

I know, but that was the classic argument in Germany for engaging with Russia. And it has turned out not to be right, in that case. All that has turned out is that Russia is much more powerful and has much more money that it would have had without this trade and it still didn't stop it from having a "what have we to lose" attitude, or rather, an ideological attitude.

Is China different from Russia? - obviously yes, but is it that different? And even if, let's say, Xi is different from Putin in this way (and I am really not sure that he is), will the person who will ultimately succeed Xi (and even if he is president for life that will happen) be that different from Putin?

I do think that trouncing Putin is likely to be more effective at getting the message across to China than trade. If, and of course it is a big if, Ukraine can get its territory back, leaving Putin with a weakened army, and - even better, if all the various territories that Russia rules could then see their opportunity and rise up for independence - so that invading Ukraine does to Russia what invading Afghanistan did to the Soviet Union - I do think that might give China pause. They too are a substantive empire - don't forget Tibet and the Uigurs and many others.

I guess that is what I am now hoping for. It has taken me a while to think about what would be the best end game. But I think it is that. Belarus too - there are various flashpoints that really could ignite if and when Putin appears to be clearly losing and doesn't have the troops to put down trouble elsewhere. The real president of Belarus (the one in exile in Lithuania) said as much - first let the Ukrainians beat Russia, and then it is our turn. I think she said it in March.

Back on China, despite their war games now, I don't think (again no military strategist) they have the troops in place to mount an invasion of Taiwan right now. Remember how long it took Putin to mass his troops on the border. And Xi has his important meeting in October - he wants to be appointed for another term. Maybe I am wrong, but I don't think he would want to have that with a war going on. Not saying it couldn't be next year, but surely we would be seeing troop movement like we did with Putin if it was going to happen now?

Thanks for that, @Wannago. I like hearing everyone's viewpoint. I simply do not know what's best and just continue to hope that China's economy is more important to them and that they don't go full on Putin. I agree with your point re trouncing Putin being more likely to give pause to Russia, here's to hoping.

@katem98 @Wannago Here's Velina Tchakarova's take on how China might manoeuvre. I really rate her analysis. Thread below.

"My Taiwan scenario is based on “death by 1000 cuts” strategy: China will seek to undermine the political system, penetrate the social fabric & suffocate the economic vitality of Taiwan in the long run instead of running too many risks of militarily attacking it in 2022 or later."

twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/1556310488773959680?s=21&t=zt9VGhdXQEZY_W6aHYg7Gw

John Culver in that podcast I linked to yesterday also agreed about this death by a thousand cuts method: slow and steady

@MagicFox Thank you for that link! One of the replies, "No amount of Russian-style coffin money would be enough for families that lose their only child, only sons" was one of the comments." I think this is important.

But what is there in that which hasn't been tried by China over the last fifty years? I know they are stronger and more powerful than they were before, and Xi is more determined now, but isn't that exactly what they have been trying? Xi's frustration is about the fact that it is not working - just as he felt that his wooing of Hong Kong seemed only to result in them going in the "wrong" direction, and so the gloves came off.

I do also agree that the Chinese public seems much less likely to accept their sons coming home in boxes than the Russians are - which would make the kind of Russian attack seem less likely - but why is 1000 cuts going to "work" now when it hasn't so far?

Two more grain ships have left Ukraine this morning.

Russia has zero claim on Ukraine but China & Taiwan? Neither the UK or the USA recognise it as an independent country, very few countries do.

Pelosi has just stirred up a hornets nest and made Taiwan's future even more uncertain.

Its really got nothing to do with the West.

But what we should urgently be doing is on-shoring/moving manufacturing out of China, not selling 'chip companies to the Chinese.

Should also stop all this Chinese influence/funding of UK uni's.

We appear to have learnt nothing from the mistakes made with Russia and Putin.