Ukraine Invasion: Part 29

[MagicFox]

Welcome all, part 29

So much of the way in which Russian forces are behaving is reminiscent of how the Japanese Army behaved in much of Asia during World War II. Heads on spikes, summary executions, killings of civilians, pulling prisoners along behind vehicles.

It's horrific. There will be moral Russian troops, just as there were moral Japanese ones, but there will be (and should be) a lot of war crimes trials.

@EdithStourton More recently, it is reminiscent of Islamic State. I suspect it is the same playbook that is used by all barbaric occupiers to inflict terror on civilian populations and to torture POWs in order to control. It has probably been around since medieval times.

I despair at man'kind' sometimes.

I believe Ukraine is collecting evidence of war crimes. There have been a few war crime trials already, both by Ukraine and Russia (thought the latter is clearly using politically motivated 'evidence'). There are just so many.

Here you go:

Showdown looms in Mykolaiv as Putin scrambles to save face

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a77cbdde-14cd-11ed-b5dc-213f5c972cc4?shareToken=78f877b0569bf6e4030a915fdaefcf18

@EdithStourton

So much of the way in which Russian forces are behaving is reminiscent of how the Japanese Army behaved in much of Asia during World War II. Heads on spikes, summary executions, killings of civilians, pulling prisoners along behind vehicles.

Unfortunately members of the Red Army were capable of similar during their advances across eastern Europe in the final years of WW2.

@Yarnasaurus thanks for sharing the Times article. I was wanting to read it.

"Sandwiched between vast rivers and the sea, the split Russian force looks to be in a precarious position. Putin’s political capital cannot afford to lose Kherson, the only city occupied intact, but clinging on to the Dnipro’s west bank could end in a disastrous defeat. “Moscow has two choices,” Hulk said. “Withdraw now, or watch their men try to swim across.”

I really hope so.

Ukraine needs one decisive showcase 'win'. They need to recapture a major town to boost morale and confidence for allies to continue to send them a high flow of weapons. They can do it!

minsmum · Yesterday 20:15
www.bellingcat.com investigation into the person who tortured and murdered the Ukrainian POW

What extraordinary fine investigative work.
But what do you all think about what the supposed perpetrator said when they found him? Was he just brazening it all out saying he hadn’t been there, that FSB had told him they realised it wasn’t him etc?

Why would the FSB detain him as though he had committed a crime, as though it mattered, but then say the video was a fake, spliced one? What were they up to?

I can see that Ukrainians might take brutal revenge on someone who had raped a child, even if that rapist had been one of their own. But I cannot believe anyone carrying out such revenge would first order a hat and bracelet to personify someone else; nor would they be able to match an ethnicity easily.

Yet if that leaves using splicing to fake the video, Bellingcat did not see any evidence of splicing - not that splicing seems plausible given the position of the man carrying out the atrocity. It is not like grafting a head onto the shoulders of someone in a standing position.

It certainly seems as though that soldier Bellingcat tracked down was indeed the culprit. But is so peculiar that he was calm about being interviewed and brought up that whole FSB story.

@Ijsbear
I don’t know if you will see this now, but just in case, have a lovely holiday and thank you for all your Takeaways over these past months.

I think it is him. The only thing true about Russia is that they lie and they do it without sweating.

I hate to reference the Daily Mail. There is an article today about this subject which names the perpetrator and has clearer photos than the Bellingcat link. No gore, but the thought is deeply upsetting anyway.

@blueshoes · Today 15:24

“ScrollingLeaves · Today 14:27

minsmum · Yesterday 20:15
www.bellingcat.com investigation into the person who tortured and murdered the Ukrainian POW

“What extraordinary fine investigative work.
But what do you all think about what the supposed perpetrator said when they found him? Was he just brazening it all out saying he hadn’t been there, that FSB had told him they realised it wasn’t him etc?”

“Why would the FSB detain him as though he had committed a crime, as though it mattered, but then say the video was a fake, spliced one? What were they up to?”

“I can see that Ukrainians might take brutal revenge on someone who had raped a child, even if that rapist had been one of their own. But I cannot believe anyone carrying out such revenge would first order a hat and bracelet to personify someone else; nor would they be able to match an ethnicity easily.”

“Yet if that leaves using splicing to fake the video, Bellingcat did not see any evidence of splicing - not that splicing seems plausible given the position of the man carrying out the atrocity. It is not like grafting a head onto the shoulders of someone in a standing position.”

“It certainly seems as though that soldier Bellingcat tracked down was indeed the culprit. But is so peculiar that he was calm about being interviewed and brought up that whole FSB story.”

I think it is him. The only thing true about Russia is that they lie and they do it without sweating.

I hate to reference the Daily Mail. There is an article today about this subject which names the perpetrator and has clearer photos than the Bellingcat link. No gore, but the thought is deeply upsetting anyway.

Thank you blueshoes, I have read that now. I think you are right. The FSB was just giving him a cover story/open lie. The Insider had tracked down the same man too.

The Guardian
'Russia-Ukraine war ‘about to enter new phase’ as Russian forces gather in the south, UK intelligence warns – as it happened
UK’s Ministry of Defence says troop build-up could be in anticipation of Ukrainian counter-offensive or for a new assault'

This plus what is happening in Taiwan, has me really worried. We keep hearing Russia is on the brink of not being able to continue but still it goes on with no sign of retreat. Must be coming up to 6 months now.

The West does not have the resources to tackle China too. Ukraine is weakening our resource base. I dread to think where the world will end up.

Re blue shoes and commenting on Chinese as ‘businessmen’.

Nowadays there are considerable numbers of Mandarin speaking Han out in business/trade/official circles. I’m told they were not so much in evidence 20 years ago when the emphasis was more on southern and diaspora interactions. What this leads to I am not too sure, but I have entertained / engaged with in cultural activities enough to have had a number of informal conversations to know the Party is key. I have never had an unpleasant interaction, but some of the discussions have been puzzling.

This isn’t a major part of my life, so I haven’t done much more than scratch the surface and then scratch my head.

I think it was @Peregrina on the Brexit threads who used to talk about the influence of Confucianism on Chinese culture and its approach to life - even though the CCP is atheist. It's very different to Western culture and something I wish I knew more about.

What should I read/follow to find out more about Chinese modern culture? I am embarrassed to admit I know next to nothing about it.

I'd be interested to know too - I just know that I'm ignorant of Chinese culture (in the true sense of the word )

mobile.twitter.com/mhmck/status/1555903738908483585 police station in Berdeyansk blown up by partisans

mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1555859334101405698 concerns about the zaphorizhzha nuclear plant after Russian shelling

@LuluBlakey1 You are so right. Those are my concerns too. There are many uncertainties. The Big Powers are playing chicken with each other and we don't know how this will pan out.

It feels worse because we cannot know the truth behind all the posturing and even if we did, we could not control anything. Think of people in Taiwan right now living with Chinese war games at their doorstep. They have not gone into shelters. They are watching it as if it were a show from the beaches and going about their daily lives.

I think that is how we must live our lives. Be grateful for our warm beds and our families safe with us. We'll cross that bridge if and when we get there.

minsmum · Today 20:41
mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1555859334101405698 concerns about the zaphorizhzha nuclear plant after Russian shelling

This is so worrying. Why would Russia be so insane as to shell it?

So I'm back in on this thread and im coming back in as ex army watching videos of a Ukrainian soldierc tortured, castrated then shot in the head, then dragged.

I'm done. Completely done

@blueshoes @LuluBlakey1

Yes, my worry too. It feels like a hot Cold War. Major powers aligning against each other. Russia,China,Iran vs US/Europe. At the moment the hot aspect of the war is happening in proxy conflicts but I worry about a wider world war in the style of WWII. And then of course there's the nuclear issue which both helps to protect against a wider hot war AND, at the same time, threatens total annihilation if it gets too far. So it's a total mess. Putin has cleverly played all these powers for his own benefit and now we're all pushed into a very scary corner. A big decider seems to be what China will do. At the moment they're at the peak of their power so if they want to do a grab and reshape stuff to consolidate that now/the next few years would be the best time before their economy slows, their demographic issue becomes a problem and the global decoupling that's happening takes effect. Let's hope Xi doesn't do it. He's about to get re-elected, possibly for a life term. Always mens egos being the potential decider - how can this be, it makes me so angry! Anyway, so the next few years will be particularly dangerous I think because of where China is. Will they go all in or maintain a status quo? They've played the long game before and it's paid off but now things have changed. More knowledgeable people than me might (I hope!) point out if I'm on the wrong path here.

More grain ships due to leave Ukraine today.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62454674

@katem98 · Today 10:15
More grain ships due to leave Ukraine today.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62454674

Thank you for that BBC article katem98
It us so good that the grain exports can be resumed. I hope the delay to the Razoni is for straightforward reasons:

The first ship to leave Ukraine last week - the Razoni - departed Odesa carrying 27,000 tonnes of corn bound for the Lebanese port of Tripoli.

However officials have said it will not dock in Tripoli on Sunday as planned.

The Ukrainian embassy in Lebanon told Reuters on Sunday that the ship was "delayed", with no details on the cause or an updated arrival date

It is also today that China's military drills are due to end around Taiwan, isn't it? It's 19:24 there at the moment, wonder if there has been any signs of the drill slowing down?🤞🏼

Well the BBC said four days ago that it had been inspected in Turkey and was free to go - www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62401342

which seems to mean that it made it to Turkey - ie out of Ukraine and beyond the risk of Russian attack. That it seems to me, is the critical thing, once they get to Turkey surely it is safe, and traveling onwards is just a matter of time

@Wannago I thought this, too!