Ukraine Invasion: Part 29

[MagicFox]

Welcome all, part 29

I think there's also a railroad bridge in the area. Rail transport is Russia's strong suit, so that will have to be dealt with as well.

Here's what's known now:

m.dailykos.com/stories/2022/7/26/2112782/-Reports-indicate-Ukraine-may-have-destroyed-the-Antonovsky-Bridge-in-Kherson

@blueshoes I know. I have heard this from Ukrainian guests in the UK.

Interesting thread on Chinese phrases put out by the govt that reflect the immediacy of their warnings: twitter.com/wentisung/status/1552164325506580482?s=21&t=q16nVq5U2OZiPSfi9VofPg

The Antonovsky bridge seems to be confirmed damaged beyond use at this point.

The Russians have taken a powerplant at Vuhlehirsk which they have been trying to capture for 2 months. The Ukrainians carried out a controlled withdrawal.

I do notice that there are several claims of destroyed aircraft during each day, almost none of which reach the official figures claimed below. Wishful thinking? Unconfirmed? Some friendly fire by the Russians taking down their own plane (do seem to be reliable rumours of this).

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ISW Key Takeaways

Russian proxy and occupation leadership is enunciating expedited deadlines for the capture of Ukrainian territory to align with the Kremlin’s efforts to prepare for the annexation of occupied territories into the Russian Federation.

Russian forces gained marginal ground northeast of Bakhmut and are continuing to fight east and south of Bakhmut.

Russian forces conducted a limited attack northwest of Izyum, likely to secure Russian rear areas on the Izyum-Slovyansk line.

Russian forces conducted limited attacks southwest of Donetsk City near the Zaporizhia Oblast border.

Russian forces focused on defending occupied lines and conducted a limited ground assault in northwestern Kherson Oblast.

Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian logistics nodes in Kherson Oblast.

The Kremlin is continuing to constitute regional volunteer battalions for deployment into Ukraine.

Ukrainian intelligence leaks continue to reveal the Kremlin’s annexation agendas for occupied Ukraine by way of falsified referenda.

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⚡️Official: EU may double the import of Ukrainian electricity

⚡️ General Staff: Russia shoots down own helicopter in friendly fire in Kherson.

At noon on July 26, three Russian Ka-52 attack helicopters near the village of Olhyne in the Kherson region intended to attack Ukrainian units but instead hit their own. At noon on July 26, three Russian Ka-52 attack helicopters near the village of Olhyne in the Kherson region intended to attack Ukrainian units but instead hit their own.
At noon on July 26, three Russian Ka-52 attack helicopters near the village of Olhyne in the Kherson region intended to attack Ukrainian units but instead hit their own. They cost $15million.

Ukraine's Armed Forces liberate Andriyivka village in Kherson Oblast.

[more awful footage of ruined Sievierodonetsk has surfaced. It's a total wreck].

📍 Russian troops threaten to undermine infrastructure if they retreat from Melitopol

The Russian occupiers prepared a plan of action in case they had to retreat from the temporarily occupied Melitopol. They threaten to undermine the city's infrastructure as they withdraw.

📣 The White House is working behind the scenes to keep the anti-Russian coalition alive as Moscow continues to cut gas supplies, causing panic on both sides of the Atlantic, CNN reported, citing Biden administration officials

▫️ The Comeback Alive Foundation purchased a Bayraktar TB2 unmanned aerial system from Ukrainian defenders for a total of $16,502,450. It includes, in particular, three attack UAVs, a friend-foe recognition system, and several dozen corrected aviation munitions

Putin is trying to encourage Erdogan to get Bayrakar to set up a factory in Russia. The owner of Bayraktar has said he will sell only to Ukraine (or as it turns out often enough, give)

@MagicFox x ·
Today 08:21
Interesting thread on Chinese phrases put out by the govt that reflect the immediacy of their warnings:
twitter.com/wentisung/status/1552164325506580482?s=21&t=q16nVq5U2OZiPSfi9VofPg

That description of the meanings behind the various possibilities of the language China uses when contemplating attack is fascinating MagicFox, thank you. It is like the verbal equivalent of trying to understand all the tiny changes of stance and movement of a dog.

Thank you for your key takeaways @Ijsbear.

It is good about the bridge finally being out of action.

I am very worried there is going to be a great deal of pressure to gradually give in to Russia as the winter comes and there is not enough gas.

@Ijsbear thanks for the takeaways

The Antonovsky bridge seems to be confirmed damaged beyond use at this point.

Good to hear this confirmed. This will help to slow Russia down in Kherson. I have to say it feels sad every time Ukraine has to destroy their own critical infrastructure to save themselves.

The Russians have taken a powerplant at Vuhlehirsk which they have been trying to capture for 2 months. The Ukrainians carried out a controlled withdrawal.

This is depressing. As ScrollingLeaves described it so vividly below, "Russians think of power plants as military being headquarters, and pavilions of torture and extortion, and places for idiots to mess around dangerously."

Interesting to see that China has a subtle scale of rhetoric signaling impending war/brinkmanship. I wonder whether they issue guidances to their government spokespersons and rhetoric-writers over the years. It is more effective to mean what you say.

Quite a different approach from the nuclear full throttle then flip-flopping gaslighting free-for-all psychotic lying toe-rag Russians.

Always welcome!

mmm, I wonder. I think that European governments know that they are held to ransom by Russia, now. They are trying to source gas and oil from several different places including the ME and Azerbijan.

I don't think it's going to be easy but I also think that it's not going to worst-case. There are a lot of problems coming, but also some solutions.

Lawrence Freedman's latest: "The Battle for Kherson and Why it Matters"

samf.substack.com/p/the-battle-for-kherson-and-why-it?s=w&utm_medium=email

ScrollingLeaves
I am very worried there is going to be a great deal of pressure to gradually give in to Russia as the winter comes and there is not enough gas

I think the Russians may have tipped their hand too early with the present shenanigans about "we can't deliver to you because a pump is broken", which is obvious garbage: no huge organisation like that has such a stupid single-point-of-failure set-up. They've told Europe exactly what they are planning, and given time to take steps to correct the situation.

agreed @AskingQuestionsAllTheTime

It has occurred to me that Putin is courting Iran, Ethiopia, the DRC and other less-than-successful African countries.

This has to mean that China has, so far, firmly made it clear behind closed doors that they won't support him. Perhaps Brazil too.

There will be a price to pay with China (I wonder if thats some of what's behind the current rhetoric) but at this point, it seems that they are keeping neutral.

💥 The Armed Forces of Ukraine have worked out simultaneously on two important logistical facilities for the invaders in the south – the Antonovsky Bridge and the railway bridge

Kherson collaborator Volodymyr Saldo confirmed this.

So the railway bridge is also under threat or put out of action, significant as the RU move most stuff by rail.

It has occurred to me that Putin is courting Iran, Ethiopia, the DRC and other less-than-successful African countries.

If China-US relations continue to deteriorate a very bad case scenario would be these counties joining together against the West, particularly Russia, China and Iran. I hope there's some serious war gaming going on in the west because it's all increasingly hairy

@Ijsbear

Some friendly fire by the Russians taking down their own plane (do seem to be reliable rumours of this).

" Blue on blue" - One of those thing that has happened in pretty much every conflict, I'd be (pleasantly) surprised if the Ukrainians have avoided doing it.

Re the bridge in Kherson.

Think about the 'why now' on this. Obviously top of the list is because they have the ability to, which perhaps they didn't previously, but I think its worth considering other factors.

There has been talk about why they haven't taken the bridge to Crimea down and some of the reasoning behind that is relevant here too.

Once the bridge is gone, no reinforcements can get in. But also no one and nothing can get out via Russia. Getting out of Kherson initally had been via the backroads in Ukraine but this became too dangerous. Then taking the long way round into Russia and then out of Russia was the route out. But in the last couple of weeks this has been considered also now too late and too dangerous.

The talk of taking out the Crimea bridge mentioned how they didn't want to remove the route for withdrawal of Russians troops as if cornered, it might leave them to fight to the death.

Now the taking of the bridge take out now, comes at a time with talk of how they will retake Kherson by the end of the Autumn. They really don't want to be taking it on over winter...

As yet, Kherson has been largely unaffected by bombs. Abuse of people by Russians yes, but buildings not affected. That changes when the Ukrainians attack - its going to be unavoidable.

Equally if the Ukrainians take it, the city is at risk of attacks from the Russians - they needed longer range missles than the Russians to give the best chance of defending the city... Thats only just happened.

I think there has to be an element of now or never going on. A winter assault will be much harsher on ukrainan soliders out in the open and civilians still left in the city. And it gives Russia too much time to complete assimilation...

There was certainly one incident of a Ukrainian SU (not sure which variety) being shot down by its own side early on :( pilot died, ofc.

The talk of taking out the Crimea bridge mentioned how they didn't want to remove the route for withdrawal of Russians troops as if cornered, it might leave them to fight to the death.

The troops and Russians brought in to administer the region could be taken out by ferry boat, but they'd have to leave their equipment behind.

I suppose it would be the Russian Dunkirk

@RedToothBrush really excellent weighing up of all the factors.

Well, a much shorter distance and fewer troops, but something like that.

mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1552339987420614659 Then Poles are find raising to buy 3 evacuation helicopters for Ukraine to help them evacuate their wounded quicker

Thank you for your analysis about the bridge to Kherson, @RedToothBrush.

Trying to get Kherson back will be difficult in so many ways.

Key Takeaways

Russian forces currently appear able to sustain only two significant offensive operations in Ukraine, both in Donetsk Oblast, and the Russian offensive remains likely to culminate before seizing additional significant population centers.

Ukrainian forces may have launched a localized counterattack southwest of Izyum.

Russian forces attacked settlements east of Siversk and northeast and southeast of Bakhmut.

Ground fighting is ongoing north of Kharkiv City.

Ukrainian forces struck the Antonivskyi Bridge for the third time in ten days on July 27, likely rendering it unusable.

The Mari El Republic north of Kazan sent two volunteer battalions to train and is forming a third battalion to deploy to Ukraine.

Russian occupation authorities are importing Russians to work in occupied territories due to a lack of Ukrainian collaborators.

Mariupol occupation authorities continue withholding humanitarian aid to force civilians to cooperate with and work for the occupation administration.

.... The Russian offensive, therefore, remains likely to culminate before seizing any other major urban areas in Ukraine. [again, worth noting that ISW tend to be cautious, even very cautious at times, before making any claim]

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📚 The Russian military ordered libraries in the occupied part of the Kharkiv region to make a register of all Ukrainian books published after 1991 and then destroy them [frankly burning ALL books after 1991 is worse than Nazi Germany iirc]

🇺🇦 84% of Ukrainians are against any territorial concessions to Russia

📸 Smoke is rising over the Southern Bug River in Mykolaiv, and fierce fighting continues in the Kherson region near this southern city

Deputy official representative of the German government Christiani Hofmann said that the latest IRIS-T air defense systems will be delivered to Ukraine before the end of this year

🔗 The United States will transfer six F-22 Raptor fighters from Alaska to Poland, writes Stars and Stripes, citing the US Air Force

📉 Russia's GDP fell by 4.9% in June, — Ministry of Economy of the Russian Federation

📌 Taiwan conducts military exercises in preparation for possible Chinese invasion

⚡️German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock says German tanks are currently the worst in Europe because the continent has been cutting defense spending and building peace for decades. [there is a great deal of bullshit going on - the latest claim to be willing to sell 100 units howitzers to Ukraine which I'm sure is true but they are not acknowledging that it will take years to complete 100! Ukraine only has/had .. eh, offhand I think it's about 13?? so far. SOmething in an object lesson in how information is deceptive, if we needed another one at all]

❗️ North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has said his army is ready for war with the United States. He threatened the South Korean forces with destruction. He said all this during a speech on the occasion of the 69th anniversary of the truce in the Korean War

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The Kyiv Independent, [28/07/2022 01:21]
⚡️Hero of Ukraine Oleksandr Kukurba killed in action.
One of the “most effective Ukrainian pilots” and Hero of Ukraine, Oleksandr Kukurba, was killed in action during his 100th mission, President Volodymyr Zelensky said in his update on July 27. “He is a true Ukrainian hero, who we will remember forever,” Zelensky wrote.

⚡️Governor: 23 Kharkiv Oblast settlements liberated since May.

⚡️Ministry of Defense: Ukraine implements weapons monitoring. [the RU have been heavily claiming that Ukr is selling donated weopons]

⚡️Ukraine’s military destroys 2 Russian ammunition depots, 5 strongholds in southern Ukraine.

⚡️Security Service identifies 5 collaborators helping proxies in Luhansk Oblast.

⚡️Zelensky's chief of staff: Chief anti-corruption prosecutor appointed.
Oleksandr Klymenko was appointed as the chief anti-corruption prosecutor by Prosecutor General Andriy Kostin, President Volodymyr Zelensky's chief of staff Andriy Yermak said.