Ukraine Invasion: Part 29

[MagicFox]

Welcome all, part 29

Messily worrying thread about the Pelosi issue: twitter.com/stevenjxu1/status/1551614426846941184?s=21&t=8LZ7zkVJzG_aeRV8LusB4A

Biden is already laying the groundwork for canceling the trip by saying, "the military thinks it's not a good idea". I suspect Pelosi will cancel the trip to get Biden out of the middle of it.

that's a great thread! :)

Thanks for the new thread, I haven't been on here much but I'm still following on the news. It's starting to drop down the news now, BBC doesn't have a live feed anymore. I hope we don't lose interest and forget how awful this is entirely.

Russia trying to play hardball with energy, I hope we can withstand it and continue to stand up to them. Europe as a whole, including the UK should probably start thinking about reducing energy usage now.

@HappyWinter I've also noticed that BBC no longer has a live feed. Disappointing really as that's where I gathered most of my info!

Key Takeaways

Russian forces made marginal gains south of Bakhmut but are unlikely to be able to effectively leverage these advances to take full control of Bakhmut itself.

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks north of Kharkiv City, east of Siversk, and east of Bakhmut.

Russian forces are continuing to fortify and strengthen positions in Zaporizhia and Kherson Oblasts in anticipation of Ukrainian counteroffensives.

Ukrainian forces are continuing to strike Russian strongholds along the Southern Axis.

Russian forces continued to withdraw military equipment from storage in Omsk and faced challenges with repairing damaged combat vehicles.

Russian occupation officials are continuing to set conditions for the annexation of occupied territories to the Russian Federation and to extend administrative control of occupied areas of Ukraine.

ISW: The Russians are trying to reinforce their positions in the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, preparing for a counterattack by the Armed Forces of Ukraine

▪️The Russian invaders are digging trenches on the territory of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and hiding military equipment in residential areas.

▪️ Intelligence also specified that the Russians’ attempts to restore the airfield in Melitopol would take at least 3-4 weeks and are unlikely to allow it to be fully operational.

▪️ISW also refers to footage from Ukrainian sources showing Russian troops allegedly moving tanks and armored personnel carriers through populated areas south and north of Melitopol, probably in the direction of the Kherson region.

▪️ The Russians are trying to repair the Antonov Bridge in the temporarily occupied Kherson, which was damaged by the strikes of Ukrainian troops.

Note:

[end sentence of a larger part, and the ISW is pretty accurate in its assessments] ......... Russian units continually degrade themselves during assaults on small villages. Russian forces are unlikely to be able to effectively leverage the capture of Novoluhanske to take Bakhmut, and the continual tactical and operational limitations they are facing on the battlefield will likely contribute to the culmination of the offensive in Donbas before capturing Bakhmut, Slovyansk, or any other major city in Donetsk Oblast.

+++

note, the UK intelligence update is also fairly scathing.

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⚡️Court seizes part of Kyiv shopping mall co-owned by Putin allies.

⚡️OSCE demands release of imprisoned staff, denounces ‘fabricated accusations.’
Acting Head of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine Antje Grawe on July 25 called for an immediate release of imprisoned OSCE staff in the occupied areas of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. A number of Special Monitoring Mission staff members had been detained by Russian forces in eastern Ukraine. [not sure what the OSCE is, off hand, but I hvent had my morning tea yet]

⚡️Ukraine to receive 7.4 million euros for subsidized loans to small business from Germany.

⚡️Gazprom increases pressure in 'Urenhoi-Pomary-Uzhhorod' gas pipeline without warning. Ukraine’s Gas Transmission System Operator reported the pressure change on July 25, warning Russia's Gazprom that the fluctuations could lead to emergency situations on the pipeline. [playing games. This is dangerous]

⚡️Reuters: Gazprom is delaying Nord Stream 1 turbine delivery.

⚡️Ukraine’s military destroys Russian command post, ammunition depot in southern Ukraine.
Ukraine’s Operational Command “South” reported on July 25 that they killed 48 Russian troops and destroyed four tanks, a howitzer, a self-propelled artillery system, and six armored and military vehicles.

⚡️Germany increases support for demining efforts, war crimes investigations.

⚡️RFE/RL: Grain prices hike after Russia strikes Odesa. [there is generally a great deal of worry about the grain situation, since Russia has proven far from trustworthy]

⚡️Prosecutors: 2 Donetsk Oblast residents arrested for sharing Ukraine's army locations.

⚡️ The Armed Forces of Ukraine have taken fire control over several transport arteries in the Kherson region, said Natalia Gumenyuk, spokeswoman for the Operational Command "Pivden". “Now we control those transport routes that are very important for the invaders. In this regard, they cannot move freely, maneuver, create new strike groups,” she said. [there have been reports of yet more reinforcements heading to Kherson from the NE so being able to fire on convoys is essential]

Unfortunately a Commander, quite possibly -the- Commander was killed two days ago. This will cause some delays and I really hope his successor is as good strategically and effectively.

📌 The Finnish parliament banned the issuance of tourist visas to Russians

❗️Ukrainian Armed Forces Strategic Communications Department: An oil depot in the Budyonnivskyi District of the occupied Donetsk is on fire. Preliminarily, the enemy's fuel and lubricant warehouse has been eliminated.

🇲🇩 Moldova is concerned that it could become the next victim of a Russian military invasion — Prime Minister of Moldova Natalia Gavrilița

Agree, there needs to be a coordinated effort to reduce energy use (while switching more and more to renewable sources so further reduce energy dependence - if only we had done this earlier!)

@Ijsbear thanks again for the Key Takeaways

▪️The Russian invaders are digging trenches on the territory of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and hiding military equipment in residential areas.

Of all the outrageous things that Russia is doing, this is one of the most frustrating things to read. That fact that Russia would is counting on the fact that Ukraine will not strike at nuclear power plants (who would be so crazy and irresponsible except Russia) or civilians to hide their weapons. Effectively using these as nuclear and human shields.

I knew about the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant but was thinking it would only be a matter of time because Russia uses civilians for the same purpose. And there is go. Straight out of the Russian playbook.

Thank you for these key take aways, @Ijsbear .

olexander scherba🇺🇦
@olex_scherba
·
54m
Antidepressant sales in #Russia up 51% since the war started. So, maybe they’re not dead inside yet?

.... and they aren't the ones getting blown up, made houseless, injured, lost civilian family and deported.

My sympathy is 0

I doubt it's because of Ukraine tbh. A lot of Russians are losing jobs and income, there's high inflation, repressions, uncertainty.

That reminded me of the Foreign Policy piece I found yesterday. As Russia has stopped publishing so many economic statistics, the paper's done some data-mining on consumer trends and buying patterns across Russia's trade partners to find out what is going on (the mirror has two sides, etc). It has to be taken with a large pinch of salt, but the sanctions seem to be doing more damage than we realised.

foreignpolicy.com/2022/07/22/russia-economy-sanctions-myths-ruble-business/

Oh that is pleasing article!

I doubt it's because of Ukraine tbh. A lot of Russians are losing jobs and income, there's high inflation, repressions, uncertainty.

Was this happening before the war, too?

BBC Radio 4 today ran a report on the horrific state of hidden away institutions for mentally disabled children and young adults in Ukraine. This was being reported regarding Ukraine’s unreadiness to join the EU while such conditions exist. It stressed that this approach predates the war and goes back to the Soviet era.

While I can see the miserable existence being imposed on these poor people is an issue which must be put right, I also feel concerned that we may start looking for reasons to stop supporting Ukraine as autumn creeps up, and a report like this might make that more likely.

The man who was an expert on the situation said no excuse could be given that there is lack of money. Millions are being poured into Ukraine now.

I never fully believed that sanctions weren't having an impact in Russia, especially in Moscow. From what I have heard, from two sources with family there, the middle classes have been feeling the economic impact of the war for some time. I don't know about the extremes of the elite and rural poor who have never had anything anyway.

Article in WSJ on Russians using the garden plots and summer houses in the countryside called dachas to grow fruit, vegetables and nuts to protect against high inflation and potential food-supply disruptions.

^www.wsj.com/articles/russians-turn-to-their-gardens-to-offset-sanctions-11658619876^

Russians Turn to Their Gardens to Offset Sanctions
Soaring prices rekindle Soviet-era efforts for people to grow their own food

Spending the summer in a dacha in the lush countryside is a ritual for Russian families. This year, more people are gardening to offset the soaring cost of food. Food prices were up 19.1% in June compared with the same month in 2021, while prices for some products such as sugar, up 48% compared with a year earlier, and pasta, up 28% in the same period, have risen far more.
...
Close to half of Russians own a country house or a garden plot, according to a survey done this year by the Russian Center for Public Opinion and Market Research. About 39% of those surveyed said they planned to spend their summer vacation at a country home or garden plot, up 5% from last year. Most said they use their land to grow food.
...
In Soviet times, the government allocated garden plots and summer houses called dachas to city dwellers. With the state economy failing to produce enough fruits and vegetables, the government encouraged people to plant gardens, said Jane Zavisca, associate professor of sociology at the University of Arizona.

“It was never just about being economically self-sufficient, it was about a sense of control and safety,” Ms. Zavisca says.

I think things like this are of great importance. Keeping those FSB agents tied up playing silly buggers means they are free to do other more damaging things.

• aren't free (obviously)

@blueshoes · Today 19:43
Article in WSJ on Russians using the garden plots and summer houses in the countryside called dachas to grow fruit, vegetables and nuts to protect against high inflation and potential food-supply disruptions.

^www.wsj.com/articles/russians-turn-to-their-gardens-to-offset-sanctions-11658619876^

That is interesting, and actually sounds a very good aspect of Russian life.

“It was never just about being economically self-sufficient, it was about a sense of control and safety,” Ms. Zavisca says.”

We in the U.K. like gardens and allotments too and anyone who can should do the same. Also, get rid of the concrete from paved over front gardens.

We also all need our own. non Russian, energy for the same reasons.

Their inflation is a lot worse than ours.
Before I was wondering (re Ijsbear’s post about anti-depressants) if they are really more depressed or more under pressure than the rest of us are becoming, and will be even more this winter. Some people here will be truly desperate. But perhaps Russians more so.

That is interesting, and actually sounds a very good aspect of Russian life.

Agree! And yet enough of these seemingly sensible Russians believe Ukrainian adults eat children. Mind blowing.

Agree! And yet enough of these seemingly sensible Russians believe Ukrainian adults eat children. Mind blowing.

@Hillsmakeyoustrong Oh god, surely not Where did you get that impression I assume it is not just those rabid propagandists on Russian TV.

I do hope that the Russian economy is imploding from the effect of Western sanctions as analysed by the article which TheABC linked to. Whilst I note the caveat to take it with a pinch of salt, logically it makes sense and the article is well reasoned.

@

We in the U.K. like gardens and allotments too and anyone who can should do the same. Also, get rid of the concrete from paved over front gardens.
We also all need our own. non Russian, energy for the same reasons.

@ScrollingLeaves I was just eyeing a house on RightMove with a veg plot. Not looking to buy but being nosy. Normally I would not consider a veg plot to be particularly desirable but I can see the sense in it with the cost of food going up. Gardening sounds therapeutic as well.

@blueshoes · Today 22:20
”We in the U.K. like gardens and allotments too and anyone who can should do the same. Also, get rid of the concrete from paved over front gardens.
We also all need our own. non Russian, energy for the same reasons”

@ScrollingLeaves I was just eyeing a house on RightMove with a veg plot. Not looking to buy but being nosy. Normally I would not consider a veg plot to be particularly desirable but I can see the sense in it with the cost of food going up. Gardening sounds therapeutic as well.

It is fun to be nosey about houses and imagine living in them.

I do think we are now having to reassess and re-evaluate everything about how we live, on so many fronts.

Re: BBC Radio 4 reporting on mentally/physically disabled Ukrainian children and young adults which I mentioned earlier, it was also on the television news tonight. It is particularly distressing for the poor children who have also been evacuated from the war.

There are unconfirmed rumours the Antonevsky bridge in Kherson is down. If true it means it's a great deal harder for the Russians to bring reinforcements in, though not impossible via the NE or (highly vulnerable) pontoons