This is a constitutional expert:
Mark Elliott AT profmarkelliott
Does the PM’s refusal to resign mean the UK is in a ‘constitutional crisis’? That’s a vague notion, but I think the answer is that it implies he’s willing to create one very soon. Another way of framing the question is: At what point must Boris Johnson resign? /1
As I’ve explained in another thread, Johnson has no ‘personal mandate’ as Prime Minister: that’s a concept unknown to the British constitution. Johnson’s invocation of ‘his’ 14 million votes is a constitutional dead cat. /2
The Prime Minister’s legitimacy derives from their leadership of a party that can form a Government capable of commanding the confidence of the House of Commons. If Johnson is ousted as Conservative leader, constitutional principle will require him to resign as PM. /3
If the Conservative Party was unable to oust him as its leader (eg if the 1922 Committee fails to change its rules and organise a new vote of no confidence), the Opposition could move a motion of no confidence in the House of Commons. /4
If the Commons voted no confidence, Johnson would be constitutionally required to resign. It would then be open to the Queen to appoint as PM the person best placed to command the confidence of the Commons. Otherwise, there would need to be dissolution & a general election. /5
The principle that the PM must be able to govern, including by appointing Ministers to their Government, is so obvious that it is not generally articulated in constitutional texts. But it is surely an implicit constitutional principle. It seems Johnson cannot now govern /6
If, therefore, Johnson cannot populate his Government with Ministers, he will arguably be required, as a matter of constitutional principle, to resign, although a vote of no confidence would formally confirm that position. /7
It is not straightforwardly open to Johnson to escape a requirement to resign by calling a general election, because the Queen would arguably be entitled to refuse to dissolve Parliament in the current circumstances, as explained here. /8
Previous tweet
Whatever else might be unclear this afternoon, one thing is perfectly clear: Boris Johnson has no right straightforwardly to call a general election. Under the Lascelles Principles, the Queen can deny a request to dissolve Parliament when the following conditions are met.
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Continuation of main thread
Where does this leave us? Johnson plainly now lacks the confidence of most of his MPs and therefore the Commons, so it is arguably already his constitutional duty to resign, but a vote of no confidence will put that beyond doubt. /9
Johnson’s insistence he’ll carry on implies he’s willing to create a constitutional crisis. If he refused to resign following a vote of no confidence, the Queen would be entitled to dismiss him. It’s therefore constitutionally idiotic for him not to resign now. 10/10
The Queen is probably getting constitutional advice at this point and is probably pretty pissed off. I wouldn't be surprised if Johnson gets a quiet phonecall. If he then ignores that, she will be doubly pissed at having to do something publicly.
The sheer narcissism at this point, really is a sight to behold.