Ukraine Invasion: Part 28

[MagicFox]

Thread 28 begins, thanks all for the company and resources

@katem98

Thanks for posting that. I've had a look, followed, and put my twopenneth in on that!

Russia has suggested that it is ready for engagement with Washington in relation to 'strategic stability and nuclear non-proliferation' - in areas like this I do think the West should be willing to at least engage with the Kremlin.

Absolutely they should and in the NATO memorandums I'm pretty sure they said they would on keeping dialogue with moscow open? Or am I thinking of China?!

@Rabbitholedigger I think I've just saw your comment.

@Igotjelly I think it's pretty important to keep levels of communication open for discussion like these too.

I'm sure there's a lot more going on than is publicly announced.

Of course they saw it coming. They just don't care. Politically it looks good if they hold that island, doesn't matter if militarily it doesn't make sense. All their goals have been driven by politics so far, even if they reduced them.

It means they cannot hold the island and there are no more rocks left on the island to hide beneath.

As for Bernie. I think its true to form that oligarchs who don't give a shit about the plebs stick together. The day Eccleston gives money to refugees and condemns the bombing of children, will be the day I'm shocked.

Putin is his mate. Its as simple as that.

Agree! Doesn’t Bernie have a history of being a first class wanker?

Yep.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernie_Ecclestone#Controversies

He has a whole section on his wikipedia page devoted to Bernie Ecclestone Controversies. The one, I've C&Ped below is cracking.

I think its fair to say there may be a reason he gets on well with Putin:

In a Times interview published on 4 July 2009, Ecclestone said "terrible to say this I suppose, but apart from the fact that Hitler got taken away and persuaded to do things that I have no idea whether he wanted to do or not, he was – in the way that he could command a lot of people – able to get things done."

According to Ecclestone: "If you have a look at a democracy it hasn't done a lot of good for many countries — including this one", in reference to the United Kingdom. He also said that his friend of 40 years Max Mosley, the son of British fascist leader Oswald Mosley, "would do a super job" as Prime Minister and added "I don't think his background would be a problem."

Stephen Pollard, editor of The Jewish Chronicle, said: "Mr Ecclestone is either an idiot or morally repulsive. Either he has no idea how stupid and offensive his views are or he does and deserves to be held in contempt by all decent people." In a subsequent interview with The Jewish Chronicle, Ecclestone said that his comments were taken the wrong way, but apologised, saying, "I'm just sorry that I was an idiot. I sincerely, genuinely apologise." However, when Ecclestone was later told by Associated Press that the World Jewish Congress had called for his resignation, he said: "It's a pity they didn't sort the banks out," referring to the financial crisis of 2007–2010, and stated: "They have a lot of influence everywhere."

If you were looking for someone to champion the virtues of liberal democracy, you wouldn't start with Ecclestone as your spokesman.

@Igotjelly

Doesn’t Bernie have a history of being a first class wanker?

Rumour has it there's a bit more than that as RTB's C&P points out.

I met a few of the movers and shakers of F1 whilst flying ( not that recently, but back in the days before really widespread use of Executive jets kicked in so many of the teams, team bosses and drivers would fly commercially) and I got the impression from talking to some of them that "Bernie" really wasn't someone you wanted to get on the wrong side of.......

Take him to Mariupol and leave him.

Eccelstone seems to have carried illegal firearms when trying to travel to Brazil, cheated on his wives, indulges in tax avoidance, pays bribes, admires Hitler and is a general sleaze. (from wiki)

Might Snake Island prove equally difficult for Ukrainian?

Ukraine.

OSINTtechnical AT Osinttechnical
As Russian forces leave Snake Island, I really only have a couple of thoughts on the matter.

The inability of the VKS to maintain air superiority over an area just 150 miles from their major bases in Crimea allowed the Ukrainians to hit Russian forces on the island at will.

Ukrainian TB2s and other assets were able to both scout and strike Russian assets on and near the island, culminating with the destruction of a number of Russian naval assets including the Moskva, Vasily Bekh, a Serna-class landing boat, and multiple Raptor-class patrol boats.

And at the end of the day, none of that even matters, because the Ukrainians were able to start hitting the island with conventional artillery fire from a Bohdana 155mm self-propelled howitzer

Spotted by a TB2 of course.

Whomever was in charge of the Russian operation on the island was most likely experiencing some sort of sisyphean curse.

Yesterday the Russians were going "if you attack Crimea, will call this a declaration of war". Today they abandoned Snake Island. 150 miles from their bases in Crimea.

Will the Ukrainians struggle on Snake Island? I'd argue that at present they don't need to actually retake the island...

@katem98 · Today 10:28
Oh dear, just browsing on Instagram and saw a post from @simplepolitics about the £1bn military aid being sent - the comments are getting increasingly less supportive. Not sure if anyone here is active on Instagram.

This is worrying katem98. Though I don’t have Instagram to see the comments it easy to imagine a trend of thought along the lines that less support should be given it feels like we in the U.K. seem to be
living in a trajectory to mayhem, with many issues not addressed, and terrible poverty for many this winter.

The other dismaying thing is knowing the 1bn is as nothing to the £5.4bn Zelensky says they need every month (is that right?). Everyone needs help to understand why it matters to keep helping Ukraine, and to believe Ukraine can prevail - that it will not all be for nothing in the end.

I hope the Ukrainians do -not- go back to snake island. they'll be just as much sitting ducks

Everyone knows that support for Ukraine will drop off. Every leader. Including Zelensky.

This is apparently why Russia wants to ush the war through until November.
Zelensky has conversly said the war must end before the end of the year.
The talk of Johnson and Biden both in the last couple of days saying they will support Ukraine indefinitely, isn't insignificant.
Neither is the projections on various scenarios of gas use in Germany. Of the 7 of them, 6 have Germany running out of gas before Feb.

This is why its such a pressing thing and why Russia is going to try and ride it out...

ScrollingLeaves
Do you know if the Ukraine army uses phosphorous too?

Pravda claimed on 27.02.2022 that Ukraine used it in Kyiv; used it "massively".
I can find no other mention of it, and frankly I don't believe it in that place at that time, but for what it is worth the claim has been made.
(I think what it meant was probably "we plan to use white phosphorous in Kyiv".)

english.pravda.ru/news/world/150495-ukraine_phosphorus/

Russia also accused Ukraine of using it in 2014, but produced no evidence to support that accusation as far as I know.

@AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · Today 15:10
ScrollingLeaves
Do you know if the Ukraine army uses phosphorous too?

Pravda claimed on 27.02.2022 that Ukraine used it in Kyiv; used it "massively".
I can find no other mention of it, and frankly I don't believe it in that place at that time, but for what it is worth the claim has been made.
(I think what it meant was probably "we plan to use white phosphorous in Kyiv".)

english.pravda.ru/news/world/150495-ukraine_phosphorus/

Russia also accused Ukraine of using it in 2014, but produced no evidence to support that accusation as far as I know.

Why would Ukraine use it in Kyiv? What purpose would that serve within their own city?

With regard to the continued discussion of white phosphorus and it's possible use, I honestly don't think there's much point in simply trying to find statements that point to either that Russia have used it or Ukraine have used it unless those statements also explain the why and how of it was used...Context of it's use is absolutely everything.

As I mentioned upthread (and I know this was discussed very early on in the conflict) the use of phosphorus is not completely banned on the battle field..it really does have a variety of legitimate uses...this C&P from wiki probably sums that up better than I can:

"In addition to its offensive capabilities, white phosphorus is a highly efficient smoke-producing agent, reacting with air to produce an immediate blanket of phosphorus pentoxide vapour. Smoke-producing white phosphorus munitions are very common, particularly as smoke grenades for infantry, loaded in defensive grenade launchers on tanks and other armoured vehicles, and in the ammunition allotment for artillery and mortars. These create smoke screens to mask friendly forces' movement, position, infrared signatures, and shooting positions. They are often called smoke/marker rounds for their use in marking points of interest, such as a light mortar to designate a target for artillery spotters."

The question that needs to be asked is not "have the Russians got plans to use phosphorus", it has to be "have the Russians got plans to use phosphorus and in what context"?

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_phosphorus_munitions#:~:text=White%20phosphorus%20munitions%20are%20weapons,burning%20element%20of%20tracer%20ammunition.

BBC News:

"Vladimir Putin has hit back at Western leaders who mocked his macho image this week, saying it would be "disgusting" to see them strip off.

It comes after leaders at the G7 summit poked fun at the Russian president's tendency to pose for topless photos."

I mean, he's not wrong

He isn't.

They do appear to have touched a nerve though!

Finally, something upon which Putin and I can agree 🤢

Ahem.

There are shirtless pics of Trudeau (v nice), but I imagine this is a pic that gets Putin's goat.

The Little Pretender can pay wrestling partners to let him win... but not gravity.

According to BBC News the Indonesian President has "conveyed President Zelensky's message to Putin" and expressed his readiness to start communication between the two of them. I wonder what the message was?