Ukraine Invasion: Part 27

[MagicFox]

27th thread, thanks for the continued company and analysis all

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The Kyiv Independent, [16/06/2022 13:39]
⚡️Official: Up to 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed or injured daily amid heavy fighting.

Lawmaker David Arakhamia, Ukraine’s chief negotiator with Russia, told Axios that between 200 to 500 Ukrainian soldiers are killed and a significant number of troops are wounded every day. Earlier Ukrainian officials said that up to 200 Ukrainian troops are killed daily.

Mujtaba (Mij) Rahman AT Mij_Europe
President Emmanuel Macron said today in the ruins of Irpin, a Kyiv suburb devastated by Russia, that France stood “unambiguously” on the side of Ukraine which had been subjected to “Russian barbarism.” 1/

“Today it is essential that Ukraine can resist and that Ukraine can win,” Macron said. “We stand without ambiguity at the side of the men and women of Ukraine.” 2/

This marks a radical (and welcome) shift in Macron’s tone & rhetoric but not – French officials say – a change of approach. Macron has always been wholly committed to Ukraine, but also believes that peace negotiations must be possible at some point on terms acceptable to Kyiv 3/

But Macron’s words on a long-awaited visit to Ukraine do represent a recognition that some of the President’s recent remarks on the war have been too abstract and neutral. He has said on several occasions that Russia should not be “humiliated” without explaining what he meant 4/

So Paris sees visit as an opp to correct impression Macron is “soft on Russia.” And AT PedderSophie reports a French diplo source saying: “We are in favour of a total victory with the restoring of the territorial integrity of all territory conquered by Russia, including Crimea.” 5/

This goes further than a statement made by Macron during a visit to Bucharest yesterday, where he said.. 6/

“At some point, when we have helped Ukraine to resist - and I hope win the war - and when above all the fighting can stop, we will have to negotiate and the Ukrainian president and his colleagues will have to negotiate with Russia.” 7/

The two statements appear to be at odds with one another. If the whole of Ukrainian territory is to be restored, there appears to be little room for negotiation. However,“being in favour” of something is not the same as believing that you can achieve it 8/

Macron is toughening France public rhetoric in face of criticism: but he remains convinced that, at some point, talks will Russia will be possible on terms Kyiv can accept.
The alternative argument – that war must go on until Russia is somehow crushed – is he believes dangerous ENDS

I'm not sure who has said about crushing Russia... but still.

So Paris sees visit as an opp to correct impression Macron is “soft on Russia.”

I wish "Paris" luck with that but I'm not sure it will gain much traction with Mail or Express readers.

There seems to have been a quite an effort made by some in the west to create or perpetuate the " Macron soft on Russia" impression/aka "Grr Macron"....

It sounds a little more positive for the Ukrainian I have been helping. We arranged for her to go with someone else today to try and sort the mess out because of the concerns. We managed to persuade someone we trust to kick backsides. He's male, well spoken, was dressed in a suit and is experienced in dealing with cluster fucks and complaints. Strangely enough the difference today and last week has been night and day.

Complaint has been put in with the job centre over it. Its been confirmed that this Ukrainian has been told a lot of incorrect information and lots of information she should have been told was completely neglected. To the point that its caused some alarm - this is not just a simple misunderstanding and language issue. No notes from the meeting were even logged on their system for starters which is the standard protocol. That absoluetely should not have happened. Its also been raised with the Council Refugee Worker by me, who was somewhat stunned because what has happened is so bad and there are clearly communication / training issues within the job centre at play here - at best. And I think thats quite generous and giving the benefit of the doubt. Quite bluntly it almost sounds like the person she spoke to previously at the job centre was actively xenophobic, possibly maliciously so and certainly had no interest in helping her.

The fact when asked about the document verification, she said 'I'll check with a manager' then came back and said 'no we can't do that, my manager has said so', yet we've since confirmed you just can stroll in anytime (without an appointment!) and get it done at the front desk is something else. The person today has said they will chase up on the NI number at her end and is hopeful because she has a job offer they can bump her up the system and avoid a delay which should solve her most immediate problem. On top of that they've already had a number of Ukrainians complain and say that the English course they have been put on has been inapprioprate for their level of English so it seems there is an issue with how multiple Ukrainians are being treated. They certainly aren't being assessed at all. I, personally, was surprised to learn of one particular guy who has been put on this course, who has what I would call 'good english' and definitely not beginner level - I've had full in depth conversations with him without the need of any translation tools. They've all just been shoved onto it without any checking about what their level of English actually is - there are others on the course (non Ukrainian) with no English whatsoever because jobsworth has seen the word 'Ukrainian'. Its shambolic and costly - not to mention they are struggling with spaces on these courses because there is a high demand, so they are missing out when they do need this course.

The job centre person today, who had been put in charge of the majority of the Ukrainian cases actively THANKED the guy who went with this Ukrainian today because she hadn't been aware of what had been going on. The fact we've spotted that what she's been told is a pile of crap, unpicked it and were able to question it actively in a constructive manner point by point, means she can now go back and kick relevant backsides. It saved her a lot of time and effort because we'd done her job for her and it would have been her who had to otherwise sort the mess out. But it does make me wonder about other Ukrainians in terms of how their cases have been handled and how many are being treated badly, because staff at the job centre think they can just get away with it. Sadly its really not sounding like a one off, from whats been said. As I say we have a good network here and generally speaking a bunch of people actively looking out for Ukrainians (though not all hosts, it has to be said). Its definitely not the case for all Ukrainians who have come to the UK. After running the gauntlet of visa applications, dealing with the DWP seems to be actively going into Round 2 of a fight with The System.

Multiply that for Brits stuck in the system who don't have the benefit of a mouthy advocate in a smart suit. No wonder they have so many people and actively have issues with the stress of it and end up questioning their own sanity - and why they need security guards at the job centre. They aren't just being let down, they are been actively screwed by incompetence and outright maliciousness. 'Appalling' doesn't even cut it as a description. And immigrants get blamed for costing the country money and being a drain on the system... A certain level of internal accountability seems to be missing from all this.

Its just disgusting.

Ukrainians don't read the Mail or Express...

The statement in Kyiv wasn't pitched at a British audience.

Danny Kemp AT dannyctkemp
BREAKING - Dutch intelligence services say they prevented a Russian spy from accessing the International Criminal Court in the Hague as an intern. The man was working under a Brazilian identity but actually belonged to the GRU - via AFP

Bonkers story. Dutch AIVD names the GRU agent as Sergey Vladimirovich Cherkasov, 36, who had claimed to be a 33-year-old Brazilian citizen named Viktor Muller Ferreira. He was refused entry to the Netherlands in April as a threat to national security

The Dutch say that had he succeeded in accessing the ICC, which is probing war crimes in Ukraine, he would have been able to gather intelligence or recruit sources, access the court's digital systems and 'might also have been able to influence criminal proceedings of the ICC.'

Smiley would have loved it: the Dutch have also released what they say is the spy's 'legend', likely written by him, including fictive details of troubled father relationship, crush on a teacher, and addresses of his favourite restaurant and trance music club in Brasilia

Ukrainians don't read the Mail or Express...The statement in Kyiv wasn't pitched at a British audience.

I'm aware of the above, nevertheless quite a lot of what Mr Macron has been construed to have said, regardless of where he has supposedly said it, has found it's way into British publications such as those mentioned.

It will be interesting to see if and how today's comments and visit is covered by the UK MSM....

In other news it's good to see reports that the UK about to ship Belgian sourced 155mm Artillery pieces to Ukraine.

They aren't just being let down, they are been actively screwed by incompetence and outright maliciousness. 'Appalling' doesn't even cut it as a description

Yes. That was my experience. Luckily I can be eloquent but if you aren't, or if you don't speak english - God help you. I mean that.

The system is deeply degrading and many, many people fall through the cracks.

mobile.twitter.com/BBCSteveR/status/1537481465528832002 part of a recent interview with Lavrov

⚡️The Russian Federation has deployed 333,000 soldiers against Ukraine, said Alexei Gromov, deputy head of the Main Operations Department of the AFU General Staff.

Ukraine NOW
@UkraineNowMedia
·
2h
‼️Germany, Italy, Romania, and France have favored an "immediate" candidate status for EU membership for Ukraine.

mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1537256109853052929 Institute of War states Russia having problems in occupied territories

There are reports that Ukr is doing well in Kherson. The Russian soldiers seem to be bringing relatives to take over empty homes and therés been a lot of defensive reinforcement so one wonders how far the Ukrainians can get but at the moment they're inching closer and closer to Kherson

summary:

wartranslated.com/day-112-june-15-summary-of-arestovych-and-feygin-daily-broadcast/

Kharkiv: Russia still pressuring in North. Izium: Russia attempts to move on Barvinkove, Dolyna (pushed back), Bohorodychne (not very successful). Ukraine advancing from West, to relieve pressure on Sloviansk (not aiming to cut off yet). Lyman: Russia trying to find options to cross river Siversky Donets, 2 directions simultaneously – Raihorodok and Siversk.

Sievierodonetsk: Street battles, Russia attacks on Borivske. Situation is hard, but controllable. Popasna: a lot of activity North, attempts to cut off Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway. Komyshuvakha: has changed control already 3 times, other locations are similar – any announcement doesn’t mean much, as control can change next day. Zaporozhye: no changes.

Russia’s tactical objectives are to cross river Siversky Donets in multiple locations, capture Siversk, and cut off road Bakhmut-Lysychansk, surround Lysychansk-Sievierodonetsk, advance on Sloviansk. No significant changes and progress in East, Russians are unable to complete their objectives effectively, and in near future.

Kherson: Ukraine has gained permanent foothold on Left (East) coast of Inhulets river, after joining from multiple river crossings, showing ability to move, despite enemy having advantages. Russia attacked for a week and was repelled.

Weapons supplies:

Poland provided 260 tanks, Ukraine wish for double that (500 against 1000 of Russia would be adequate).

(intersting that they think 500 of their tanks would be enough to fight double that number of Russian tanks. Wonder what the skill level of the Russian tank crew is nowadays)

Navalny seems to be alive, at least.

www.cbc.ca/news/world/navalny-russia-maximum-security-prison-1.6489669

Crikey. Wasn't expecting to see him again.

Phew.

Isn't it in Kherson that over a hundred Russian soldiers have been killed on patrol, the "Mayor" has just been blown up, as well as the Ukrainian national anthem being blasted out at bus stops, among other things

I've name changed for this reply for a number of reasons, but mainly because I'm in despair about some of the experiences hosts and refugees have had to endure when dealing with DWP and Job Centres.

I have hands on experience with some of the issues that have been raised when dealing with UC, National Insurance, Child Benefit etc.

There doesn't appear to be a consistent approach from Job Centres around Commitments and looking for/preparing for Work etc, However, inevitably hosts have no experience of the benefits system in the UK, as they tend to be concentrated in the 'leafy affluent suburbs' and it'll be the first time they've experienced the reality of government policy.

Please feel free to DM me if you need help & advice and I'll try to help where I can. But I would urge you to lobby your MP to agree a consistent approach across all government departments when dealing with vulnerable, and often traumatised people who have been promised sanctuary and support by the UK government.

The rumours about Putin's health might be bullshit but he doesn't seem to be high profile at the moment. Even Lavrov's presence is muted, though he was quoted today. If Putin does have a body double maybe he is the one on show and there's a lot of negotiating behind the scenes for his successor. It might also explain why Navalny has been moved into an even more secure prison out of sight.

there was also this

Flash
@Flash43191300
⚡️Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told the Russian mas media that Russia was satisfied with the negotiating position set out by Ukraine at the end of March "as a basis for work."

Now Russia's not been even remotely interested in negotiations but it's a first (as far as I can remember, but my memory is poor) for them to give any credence at all to the Ukrainian starting position.

600+ Ukrainian refugees left homeless after a placement breakdowns.

Surely they could commandeer a hotel and put them all in safe rooms!

This is Lavrov’s interview with the BBC tonight on News at Ten.

On the question of British Russian relations and Liz Truss and Boris Johnson saying Russia must be defeated he said, “Bring it on.”

www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61825525

The full interview, which was not aired tonight, will be available on BBC iPlayer on Saturday. I think they said that in the full interview there was mention of other borders.

What, round them up and ship them to areas they don’t necessarily want to be? Many have chosen their area for reasons like friends and family in the same area, others will already have got jobs and school places.
Hotels also aren’t ideal for more than very short term.

@ScrollingLeaves other borders? Sounds ominous.

@Hillsmakeyoustrong · Today 23:14
@ScrollingLeaves other borders? Sounds ominous.

I went on to iPlayer to listen again.
About 9:39 minutes into News at Ten, after Steve Rosenberg’s interview with Lavrov closed, Steve Rosenburg said he had asked Lavrov to confirm there would be no more military operations or invasions of countries near by -“.he dodged that one.”