Ukraine Invasion: Part 27

[MagicFox]

27th thread, thanks for the continued company and analysis all

@PerkingFaintly - thank you that was it. Not sure where I got the Crimea bit from - maybe just because I remembered that it was pre the invasion.

Kallas is also the person who said "Putin only understands strength".

Some PP suggested that was just a meaningless soundbite, but I didn't understand why the PP thought that. To me, this is Putin in a nutshell.

He wasn't always this way, but in the recent decade or so he hasn't been shy in displaying this, in many different ways. He messages constantly about the West being decadent, effete and weak. He invades neighbouring countries, eg Georgia, and when he gets away with it invades (the rest of ) Ukraine. He poisons people in the UK and expects to get away with it. He works with Syria to drop chemical weapons on civilians.

Every time he's brought up on something, he and his proxies huff and puff like a cat with its fur up, and act simultaneously innocently indignant and threatening.

It's all a big act and he has no intention of taking the least bit of notice of anyone's mere words. He only changes his behaviour when it stops working for him.

He's as drearily predictable as any abusive little man trying to intimidate an intimate partner.

NATO Deputy Secretary General has said that the alliance do not believe that presently Finland and Sweden are at risk from Moscow as NATO “do not see the capability or intentions of being militarily aggressive against Sweden and Finland”

@Ijsbear
Thank you for your new takeaways today.
I am sorry you lost an info linked post last night that disappeared.

I have had a couple recently that disappeared as soon as I clicked ‘post’ so there may be a fault. One to you just now for example. Maybe if they are your long news filled ones the only safe thing is to do what TargusEasting said (?) and write them somewhere safe first.

Just lost another post that had taken some time Mumsnet HQ.

Ben Wallace in Kyiv today.

@prettybird · Today 12:29
@PerkingFaintly - that's why I posted to ask, rather than trying the "new" crap MN search - hoping that someone roule remember or even still have the original link. Wink

@MNHQ have truly fucked up the functionality of this site with the "upgrade"

I totally agree. It used to be possible to have a go at finding a post through a mixture of remembered key words, posters’ names, and a clearly specified range of dates. It is no longer possible. The new system doesn’t seem to be an upgrade.

Is this what you were looking for?

Munich Security Conference on Twitter: "Even before #Russia launched its attack on #Ukraine, Estonian Prime Minister @kajakallas warned Western leaders not to make any concessions to the Kremlin, calling to mind a 3-point negotiation tactic the Soviet Union used to apply. #MSC2022 t.co/kzP93fnv5S" / Twitter

mobile.twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/1524880300949528583
mobile.twitter.com/munsecconf/status/1512451999622643714?s=21&t=6-gjd-uaF34Du11LN8qmVw

That was for @prettybird re:

“prettybird · Today 12:07
Someone on here posted an excellent video of one of the Baltic state prime ministers warning of the risks of appeasing Putin, as he'd just come back for more and more. It pre-dated the Ukraine War (but was after the annexation of Crimea?).

I can't find it - can someone re-post it please. I was describing it to my dad and would like to send a link.”

It used to be possible to have a go at finding a post through a mixture of remembered key words, posters’ names, and a clearly specified range of dates. It is no longer possible. The new system doesn’t seem to be an upgrade.

Exactly so.

In fact this occasion was worse, because I gave up on the mixture and just looked for "Gromyko".

MN search returned me zero results for "Gromyko.

Google advanced search of MN also returned me zero results for "Gromyko".

Make of that what you will.

BTW thank you whoever posted that Chatham House article about Russian disinformation. Interesting read about how Russia is wooing much of the world with disinformation about Ukraine.

www.chathamhouse.org/2022/06/disinformation-fight-goes-beyond-ukraine-and-its-allies

www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/10/were-almost-out-of-ammunition-and-relying-on-western-arms-says-ukraine?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

I don't know what to make of this.
It feels to me like, in the last 10 days or more, the war in Ukraine seems to be moving much more in favour of Russia- in terms of progress with taking areas of Ukraine into their command, Ukraine using up ammunition and weapons and Ukraine's losses of military personnel.
Can Nato continue to re-arm Ukraine? Where will the point come when we can't? Presumably countries will need to hold back resources in case they are needed for their own defence?

@PerkingFaintly · Today 15:04
BTW thank you whoever posted that Chatham House article about Russian disinformation. Interesting read about how Russia is wooing much of the world with disinformation about Ukraine.

www.chathamhouse.org/2022/06/disinformation-fight-goes-beyond-ukraine-and-its-allies

It was @Igotjelly - yes, thank you very much. I just don’t think we realise the extent to which this spread of misinformation, or partial, or misleading, information carries as much force in a hidden way as any weapons.

An excerpt from this article says:
It uses narratives that play on the broad themes of anti-colonialism and Western imperialism, with recurring lies including the protection of ethnic Russians in Donbas from supposed genocide, ‘de-nazifying’ Ukraine, and blaming the invasion on NATO aggression.

Ahead of its invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin pre-emptively allocated substantial budget for these practices, with government spending on ‘mass media’ between February and March 2022 increasing by 433 per cent to reach 17.4 billion roubles (around 215 million euros).

Russia’s media control is growing

Parallel to this increase has been the introduction of laws further restricting freedom of speech under the guise of combatting fake news, the eviction of Western media outlets, and the arrest of thousands of protestors across Russian cities – all of which allows the Kremlin to extend its control of the domestic media space and bolster support for its war.
and
to further reduce the risks to the Kremlin’s control over domestic understanding of the war and economic situation, Moscow also seeks to build pro-Russian – or anti-Western – sentiment among those countries not supporting Kyiv.

Disinformation campaigns in countries such as South Africa, India, Brazil, and Mexico aim to develop support for Moscow’s position and to build empathy against sanctions.

I think the article missed out a huge tranche of the USA being influenced too. For example the American pro-Russian ‘reporter’ in the Donbas, Patrick Lancaster, whom I mentioned yesterday, has subscription channels. One You Tube one has 500k subscribers and many more will have seen videos shared. He goes around accompanied by the Russian military apparently telling it like it is. He is married to someone from there and speaks some Russian. Russians and Americans follow him.

There are many Americans, as well as Russians, (and some Germans and Spanish speakers) who adore him and think they are seeing the ‘truth’. Why does the pro-Russian line resonate with them so? Similarities between the rust-belts? Seeing it as like the American civil war? America is in trouble if these comments are anything to go by.

There have been concerns expressed in other places about this for some time now and the speculation is increasing.

[speculation]

The Ukrainians have got ? several hundred thousand people under arms now.

Ammunition (large and small calibre, smart and dumb) may well be being used at an eyewatering rate.

We don't know how much ammunition the Ukrainians have left that is compatible with the Russian kit they still have.

We don't know how much ordnance the Ukrainians are getting quickly for any NATO spec weapons they have, basically we don't know for good reasons how well their logistics chain is working (that logistics chain thing that screwed the Russians early on).

Most of the NATO countries don't hold unlimited stocks of ordnance. They might have enough to meet whatever commitments were foreseen at their last defence review, plus maybe a small buffer......

I don't think many nations foresaw in those defence reviews buying enough munitions to both keep their own forces equipped and also supply, at least in part another countries armed forces engaging in a proxy war.

Few if any factories anywhere can suddenly tool up and start producing munitions at a rate which would match wartime attrition/usage.

Conclusion is pretty soon many countries (including the UK) may soon have to make a decision, if they haven't already - do they start depleting their war stocks ..or not?

It certainly seems to be that very soon it is all going to be down to what Uncle Sam can provide and how quickly it can be provided.

The other sunny point is the Russians maybe don't tend to be quite as fussed as the west about using time expired/life expired ordnance, if it's in the bunker they'll use it and accept any subsequent accidents caused by things going bang when they shouldn't.

In other words the Guardian article may not be that far off the mark.

[/speculation]

Ben Wallace in Kyiv meeting Zelensky: twitter.com/iaponomarenko/status/1535290794109804545?s=21&t=7YW5_HKCKyn6YiddZaraXA

This worries me. It is very easy to assume that everyone will see that Russia is lying about NATO and western imperialism but that is not the case.

You would think that countries that became independent from Western empires would sympathise with Ukraine as a nation that wants independence and self determination but is being attacked by a country trying to recreate a historic empire. Yet instead they are being persuaded to sympathise with Russia's fight against western imperialists. Last I heard the African Nations were had ignored Zelenskys request to speak at one of their meetings.

I don't know if we are doing enough to fight back in the disinformation wars. A lie can run around the world before the truth has got its boots on (to possibly mangle Terry Pratchett). How do we tackle disinformation? Are there people out there doing it? Or are we assuming that others are dealing with it, or that people will read Russian disinformation critically?

@MagicFox Zelenskyy looks exhausted.

I'm so glad Ben Wallace insisted on it being Ukraine doing the hard and incredible work.

What did he say

Trendy? Was it the most trendy defence minister?

Yes Ben Wallace said Ukraine's defence minister was trendy.

I don't think many nations foresaw in those defence reviews buying enough munitions to both keep their own forces equipped and also supply, at least in part another countries armed forces engaging in a proxy war.
Few if any factories anywhere can suddenly tool up and start producing munitions at a rate which would match wartime attrition/usage.
Conclusion is pretty soon many countries (including the UK) may soon have to make a decision, if they haven't already - do they start depleting their war stocks ..or not?

Yeah that's the worry, how much longer can other countries keep supplying? Finland has just decided to send another shipment of arms but we have a much bigger stockpile than many western countries, thanks to not downgrading after the cold war ended, so we can afford to for now.

@notimagain @TargusEasting and people knowledgeable about the military on here.

This seems to have details about weapons and so on.

Address by Minister of Defense of Ukraine Oleksii Reznikov | Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine

www.kmu.gov.ua/en/news/zvernennya-ministra-oboroni-oleksiya-ryeznikova9062022

I genuinely think this is something to worry about. It's really important what happens in the US elections.

@juliadavis

"This compilation of clips explains why the Russians think they're winning and don't need to negotiate. Spoiler: they're waiting for the GOP to prevail in midterms and abandon Ukraine. They're also encouraged by our media coverage—especially Tucker Carlson."

twitter.com/juliadavisnews/status/1534759968628518914?s=21&t=XvM-XXrDnCv5SfxJ3OshrA