Ukraine Invasion: Part 26

[MagicFox]

Here we are, on top of our rock

@blueshoes yesterday 23:33
Re the demographic of the people chanting against the war in St Petersburg at the Kis-Kis concert, I think this reply (translation) to the video clip tweet answers that question:

^Kitty concert is not an
indicator, but rather an
exception to the rules.
Alina has repeatedly
expressed herself
against it, so it is logical
that at the concert are
fans of their creativity
who share views +
young people, among
whom the percentage
of those who think a
little more^

Alina Olesheva is in the group.

@minsmum
Good article from Kyiv Independent, thank you. Getting equipment up to the front quickly in a continual flow is vital.
It’s like a horse in the Grand National or an Everest climber. The most important jump is the last and the peak is the important part of the mountain. It is essential to over aim or one falls short.

I think the Everest comparison is best.

Everyone thinks about getting to the top of the mountain. But thats only half the job. You also have to get back down.

Getting the logistics trucks in AND out safely in good time is essential, so you can start the next cycle.

Its no good to get one delivery in only for your truck to breakdown or be destroyed on its way back...

I honestly don't mean to be awkward, MMBaranova, I'm just a proper pedant about words and meanings. Sad but true, really.

Third.

The two main pontoons destroyed by artillery are below. But there was another. On the same day or possibly the day after the Lyman reports, there were reports of a second pontoon being destroyed. I cannot find that report now, but it has probably been quashed by the Lymans report which had the large scale Russian losses.

Lyman pontoon crossing - 11 May

That part of the river is littered with oxbow lakes.

In terms of China and the larger geopolitical worldview and also how this relates to Russia and NATO expansion I found this review of Colby's book v interesting. He argues for a realist approach to China that does not involve getting 'pulled along' by the current cycle of events .

"US primacists use the same events to argue for increased commitment in Europe, and now probably in an enlarged NATO domain. This perverse development may delay a necessary reckoning, that the true choice is whether the US and Europe respond to the near-gravitational pull of Asia either in an orderly or chaotic way, at a tempo of their choosing or one triggered by events. In this sense, for the wider audience, Colby’s argument should be taken as a forewarning."

engelsbergideas.com/books/statecraft-for-an-age-of-blood-and-iron-the-strategy-of-denial-american-defence-in-an-age-of-great-power-conflict-by-elbridge-colby-review/

I might have a read of this book, though it's obviously from a US rather than European perspective. But those seem to be entangling even further

Another odd (sabotage?) fire in Russia too, this time at the Central Aerodynamic Institute (TSAGI)

euroweeklynews.com/2022/05/21/suspicious-fire-breaks-out-at-russian-aerospace-institute/

Key Takeaways

Russian forces are conducting operations to cut off Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) between Severodonetsk and Lysychansk across the Severskyi Donetsk River.

The information space in Mariupol will likely become increasingly restricted in the coming weeks as Russian forces shift focus from completing the capture of the Azovstal Steel Plant to consolidating occupational control of the city.

Russian troops are likely reinforcing their grouping around Kharkiv City to prevent further Ukrainian advances toward the international border.

Russian forces may be assembling forces in certain areas of Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts to initiate further offensive operations on the southern axis.

+++

The Kyiv Independent, [22/05/2022 01:37]
⚡️Zelensky: Situation in Donbas 'very difficult.'

President Volodymyr Zelensky said during his daily briefing that the Russian military continues its efforts to advance on Sloviansk and Sievierodonetsk but that Ukrainian forces are holding back the offensive.

[from what I've read the Russians are actually slowly but surely advancing. I realise I'm being deeply unrealistic but I am finding this hard to accept]

⚡️Zelensky: More than 1,000 educational institutions destroyed since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion.

⚡️ISW: Russian troops likely reinforcing positions in Kharkiv Oblast, increasing combat power in south.

⚡️Guerrillas help Ukraine's Armed Forces destroy Russian artillery in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

The Kyiv Independent, [22/05/2022 04:15]
⚡️Russian Transport Minister: Western sanctions have led to serious problems with logistics in Russia.

Russia’s Transport Minister Vitaly Savelyev told journalists on May 21 that Western sanctions have forced Russia “to look for new logistics corridors,” Russian independent media Meduza reported. Russia will now rely more heavily on the North-South transport corridor to move freight, Savelyev said.

The Kyiv Independent, [22/05/2022 09:38]
⚡️ Russians mine roads in occupied Kherson Oblast. According to the Kherson regional administration, Russian troops are mining roads and bridges, blocking the way for residents to evacuate from the occupied Kherson Oblast to the territory controlled by Ukraine.

+++

Seems the Ukrainians shot another plane down. Personnel losses are approaching 30,000.

+++

⚡️Polish President Duda arrives in Ukraine to address Ukrainian parliament.

Ukraine NOW [English], [22/05/2022 08:45]
🤯Russian military demand 1000 US dollars or equivalent from Ukrainians for exiting from the temporary Russian-controlled territories. But even after that they can do a following shoot, — The Operational Command "Pyvden".

‼️88th day of the war. General Staff:

▪️Russian troops continue to advance in the East. At the same time, the troops of the Republic of Belarus are conducting intensified reconnaissance on the border with Ukraine.

▪️Russian troops continue shelling settlements and infrastructure in different regions of Ukraine using missiles and aircraft.

▪️In Kharkiv direction, Russian soldiers are trying to prevent Ukrainian troops from reaching the state border.

▪️In Belgorod region of Russia, the launch facilities of the “Iskander-M” operational-tactical missile system were deployed.

▪️In the past 24 hours, nine enemy attacks were repelled in the Donetsk and Luhansk directions.

+++

Moscow will consider exchanging prisoners from Ukraine's Azov battalion for Viktor Medvedchuk, a wealthy Ukrainian businessman close to President Vladimir Putin, a Russian negotiator said on Saturday.

"We are going to study the possibility," said Leonid Slutsky, a senior member of Russia's negotiating team on Ukraine, speaking from the separatist city of Donetsk in southeastern Ukraine, the RIA Novosti news agency reported.

+++

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky warned Saturday that only a diplomatic breakthrough rather than an outright military victory could end Russia's war on his country, as Moscow cut gas supplies to Finland.

"There are things that can only be reached at the negotiating table," Zelensky said, just as Russia claimed its long-range missiles had destroyed a shipment of Western arms destined for Ukraine's troop

(I am afraid that this means that Zelenskyy has given up hope of driving them out militarily, but that might just be my fear talking).

+++

In occupied areas education is now to be carried out in Russian and Ukrainian history books are being destroyed

+++

Ah Russia and its suspicious fires, may they grow more numerous and ever more suspicious.

And preferably one fire on Putin's seat, right under his bollocks.

Now that's a pleasing thought

Ha, I remember somebody posting early on to wish that Putin's teeth would all abscess so we can now add Fire Bollocks to the curse list

Russia are apparently totally destroying the donbas region, if they take it what use is it to them, it will be uninhabitable.

They could repopulate it with Russians and there are natural resources there.

Been abroad for two weeks and switched off from SM.

However, it does seem that for what ever reason, Russia is increasing territory gained and is holding on to pretty much all it has taken.
News reports i ve seen today look like Odesa may be next, it also seems to have slide down the news agenda too.

I had hoped there would have been some discussion/action on opening up the Black Sea but nothing, just talk on perhaps a new UN resolution which Putin will veto.

I 'm i being too pessimistic?

Well, the Ukrainians have pushed Russia right back from Kharkiv so that's a huge gain. 2nd biggest city in Ukraine.

The Battle of Donetsk - yeah Russia have made some gains. Not as many as many trained observers expected, but some.

In one of the Arestovych videos a few days ago, they were analysing what Ru were planning to do re Severodonetsk - either storm and try to take it, or try and encircle it, which he said should become clear within the next few days. It does look like they've gone for the latter.

The river crossing seems to be the hill they're going to die on though.

ljsbear, thanks for your Key Takeaways.

"(I am afraid that this means that Zelenskyy has given up hope of driving them out militarily, but that might just be my fear talking)."

Is the above your thoughts?

Since Zelensky made the statement about a diplomatic solution, which is a change of tack from statements about driving Russia out, I am sensing that the Ukainian forces are having a very hard time.

Re the individual farming in Ukraine - it's a legacy of USSR, when this was very much encouraged. They don't have very good record with famines. So it's a very common thing across all of former USSR countries, where villagers would have big gardens and grow stuff. I grew up in one of them, we never needed to buy any fruit or veg, bar maybe tomatoes and cucumbers in winter.

Residents in urban areas were also given dachas - like an out of town allotment, but usually bugger than the UK ones, and it would often have a small summer house there too.

Yes, thank to ljsbear for the key takeaways; they are always cogent and useful for making sense of things.

This morning the World Service was quoting a Ukrainian spokesman as saying they would not cede any territory, because that would just give Russia a breathing space before they invaded again from the footholds they would then have in the country.

Yes, yes it was my thoughts, sorry. Ill use [ ] next time.

ljsbear, not at all!

ScrollingLeaves, appreciate your taking the time to find this out and translate. That makes sense about the chanting at the Kis-Kis concert.

Since Zelensky made the statement about a diplomatic solution, which is a change of tack from statements about driving Russia out, I am sensing that the Ukainian forces are having a very hard time.

One for the land warfare experts but as I understand it it is hellishly difficult to quickly go from being on the defence to the offense, so I think the ebb and flow we might be seeing now is to be expected.

My guess is the Ukrainians have the national will and are getting the support needed, including weapons to turn this around, eventually..but it's that "eventually" that might the problem....

Will the nations of the world" give Ukraine long enough?