Ukraine Invasion: Part 26

[MagicFox]

Here we are, on top of our rock

Having just typed out a long and I hope informative reply to the above posts about the ratio of attacking to defensive forces, using The Somme, Normandy Campaign and The Iran/Iraq war as evidence, for some reason the MN site decided to inflict an advertising pop-up about holidaying in Ireland which filled my screen and rendered my own controls useless. Having now lost a good 20 minutes of work, I am a bit pissed off and have gone out to mow the garden.
Another poster had the exact same problem in the last 48 hours IIRC.

@MNHQ Please sort yourself out. Are you not embarrassed by now?

I think that Zelensky said that "We have to beat them on the battlefield " Then he said the only way these things and is diplomacy. So I believe he is saying that Ukraine have to beat Russia and then they can talk

damn Targus that sounds like it would have been a really good post.

I know it's ridiculous but sometimes I put a post in a word document first to stop this happening, after they changed the site.

I can't see Ukraine conceding any ground beyond the 2014 point (and they may push back further). That would encourage Russia and the whole point of the war is for them to preserve their independence.

Likewise, America/Europe will be digging in for a long engagement. They also understand that rewarding Russia now will cause more aggression down the line (although how well that will hold when the cold weather comes calling is another matter). The USA Lend Lease, the development funds, the EU application...abandoning that now is effectively saying 'we give in!' against a shoddy second-rate military power. Now...what message does that send the rest of the world? Especially given the wheat and oil disruption?

Ukraine can seek a diplomatic solution on any day of the week (it's their country), but that requires something to bargain with, be it a military success or Russia's exhaustion. I don't pretend to have the answers but I don't, for one second, believe they are going to meekly surrender.

We've been told the end of August for the Russia army to break which is bugger all by historic standards. Let's wait and see.

Well the chemical aspect of this story is perhaps worthy of concern.

OTOH if I was one of these so called experts I'd be worried in turn about my own survivability if the Russian plan is enter contested in a helicopter or transport aircraft with a view to rolling bombs off the ramp or out of the door.

These bullies had it all their own way in Syria....The airspace above some Ukrainian cities and built up areas might be a bit more of what is known in some circles as a two way range.

Targus.

I write long posts in a text document and paste them in. Have lost too much work in the past.

TargusEating, sorry that you lost your work. That would have been an informative post.

I am feeling more reassured by the various posts that Ukraine will not cede ground. I just hope they can hang in there with US and NATO support and their hearts of lions. It must be so tough and exhausting for them.

slightly surreally .... yet another attempt at crossing?! (unconfirmed)

Ukraine Now Media
@UkraineNowMedia
·
26m
⚡️🇺🇦Armed Forces of Ukraine again destroyed the crossing of Russians across the Siversky Donets, destroyed their equipment and several dozen Russian military

The Kyiv Independent
@KyivIndependent
⚡️Zelensky: Ukraine may be losing up to 100 soldiers fighting in the east every day.

President Volodymyr Zelensky said during a press briefing on May 22 that 50-100 soldiers may be dying every day defending Ukraine in “the most difficult direction,” in the country’s east.

Manchester won the Premier League football match. Their Ukrainian player held the trophy. I didn’t watch the match so am not sure if he scored a goal. For what it’s worth perhaps this is a bit cheerful.

twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1528448369814798338?s=20&t=3ubYHYTdDPMXaIPoMXfu4w

@Ijsbear · Today 21:31
slightly surreally .... yet another attempt at crossing?! (unconfirmed)

Ukraine Now Media
·
26m
⚡️🇺🇦Armed Forces of Ukraine again destroyed the crossing of Russians across the Siversky Donets, destroyed their equipment and several dozen Russian military

Any Russians being commanded to go over those pontoons must be in a terrible state about it by now.

mobile.twitter.com/mrsorokaa/status/1528348157968621568 lovely message from Poland

This is about the trial of the soldier who shot the civilian. His Ukrainian defence barrister has been criticised by some for defending him.

Personally I think it is right on principle that he has had good defence. The defence is that he was ordered to shoot, though apparently it shouldn’t count as an order as it didn’t come from higher command. I wonder if the one who ordered was older or more senior in some way?

Devil’s advocate’? Russian soldier’s Ukrainian lawyer defends role on eve of verdict | Ukraine | The Guardian

www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/22/devils-advocate-russian-soldiers-ukrainian-lawyer-viktor-ovsyannikov-defends-role-on-eve-of-verdict

Clip from Russian state tv where the pundit basically says 'we'll take what we can get of Ukraine but might be limited because it isn't that easy". But the bit that really caught me (and where I hope to goodness we can intervene somehow) is the response at the end. They talk about not knowing what the younger generation will be like so they can't leave the 'Ukrainian question' up to them and the host says "we should be working on that"). This is the major danger of an isolated Russia isnt it? A younger generation who are equally inward looking and aggressive?

Oops link: twitter.com/juliadavisnews/status/1528446862474194945?s=21&t=RLTHWdy0o3aBermtxJ1gmQ

The defence is that he was ordered to shoot, though apparently it shouldn’t count as an order as it didn’t come from higher command. I wonder if the one who ordered was older or more senior in some way?

Simply saying something like "I was ordered by higher command to shoot even though I knew I was shooting a civilian", isn't a recognised defence these days in most jurisdictions, though I accept refusing to do so would put a conscript in the Russian army in a difficult situation.

Key Takeaways

Ukrainian sources confirmed that Russian forces have secured local advances to the north and west of Popasna since at least May 20. Russian forces likely seek to push further west toward Bakhmut and north to support the encirclement of Severodonetsk but remain unlikely to achieve rapid advances.

Russian forces will likely attempt to hold positions west of the Siverskyi Donets River against Ukrainian attacks (rather than retreating across the river) to prevent further Ukrainian advances from threatening Russian lines of communication to Izyum.

Russian occupying forces continued filtration and deportation procedures in and around Mariupol.

Russian forces are likely preparing to resume offensives on the southern axis.

[Russian forces will likely attempt to hold positions west of the Siverskyi Donets River so they have breached the line of the river in some places]

+++

The Kyiv Independent, [23/05/2022 02:05]

⚡️ White House: Russia will be unable to disrupt US military assistance to Ukraine. [there have been Russian claims that they ahve blown up some Western weopons shipments, this seems to confirm that]

⚡️ Ukraine’s Military: Russian frigate Admiral Makarov leaves Sevastopol.
Ukraine’s Operational Command “South” said on May 22 that the warship made its way to Russian positions in the Black Sea, increasing the probability of missile strikes on Ukraine.

+++

⚡️Operational summary of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine:

▪️In the Kharkiv region, Russian invaders are strengthening control and setting up checkpoints in the direction of Veliky Burluk, Kapitolivka, Mykhailivka, Levkivka, Zabavne and Kupyansk, the General Staff reports.

▪️The armed forces repelled attacks near the villages of Dovhenke, Kharkiv region, Toshkivka, Luhansk region, Oleksandropillya, Lipove, and Trypillya, Donetsk region.

▪️During the day, only in the Donetsk and Lugansk directions, Ukrainian defenders repelled 11 enemy attacks.

▪️In Volyn and Polissya, Belarusians are conducting reconnaissance, having transferred their additional units to the border town of Gomel.

[in haste]

Ukraine Now Media
@UkraineNowMedia
·
2m
⚡️🇺🇦President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a law on the confiscation of property in Ukraine from those who support Russian aggression.

+++

Euromaidan PR
@EuromaidanPR
·
9h
Russia has launched four of the six submarines into the Black Sea. Each with missiles

[note that the Admiral Makarov has also left Sevastopol port into the Black Sea; looks like Ukraine is going to be more heavily attacked by sea in the future. With the ISW reports that Russia is preparing to resume offensives on the Southern axis, this looks like there may be a renewed offensive generally (to my untrained eye) ]

+++

The Moscow Times
@MoscowTimes
·
1h
The Russian far-right extremist groups' involvement “makes the ostensible reason for war, the so-called ‘denazification’ of Ukraine, absurd,” Germany’s intelligence service BND said.

+++

ISW
@TheStudyofWar
·
8h
Southern Axis Update:

Reported instances of #Ukrainian partisan activity targeting collaboration officials and #Russian artillery systems in #Enerhodar and #Melitopol indicate continued and organized Ukrainian resistance in occupied areas.
isw.pub/RusCampaignMay

+++

Many reports of Mariupolitans being sent to filtration camps

+++

OSINT Aggregator
@AggregateOsint
·
1h
Pro-#Russian
sources are concerned #Ukraine is about to counterattack in the vicinity of Kherson with "23 BTGs, totaling 20,000 troops." in order to force #Russia out of Kherson and back over the #Dnipro River. #Ukraine has been massing troops in the area but so has #RUAF.

Around #Kharkiv, #Russian forces brought in reinforcements from #Belgorod and built defenses in order to slow #Ukrainian counterattacks in the area. Overall, #Russia's activity decreased significantly in the past two days. The reason for the decrease is unclear at this time.

+++

Lithuanian Government 🇱🇹
@LithuanianGovt
·
22h
As of today we are
totally independent from Russian gas, oil and electricity. It is a mission possible✌️

[hallo Germany, take note. Germany's lack of decisive leadership is an utter disgrace in this crisis]

Well done Lithuania.

Most of the news at the moment is rather worrying and depressing.

"Joe Biden pledges to defend Taiwan militarily if China were to invade"

www.ft.com/content/f4435be6-61bf-4565-8f19-60b69ebc41de?sharetype=blocked

Pretty big

@MagicFox · Today 07:01
Clip from Russian state tv where the pundit basically says 'we'll take what we can get of Ukraine but might be limited because it isn't that easy". But the bit that really caught me (and where I hope to goodness we can intervene somehow) is the response at the end. They talk about not knowing what the younger generation will be like so they can't leave the 'Ukrainian question' up to them and the host says "we should be working on that"). This is the major danger of an isolated Russia isnt it? A younger generation who are equally inward looking and aggressive?
twitter.com/juliadavisnews/status/1528446862474194945?s=21&t=RLTHWdy0o3aBermtxJ1gmQ

Thank you MagicFox. If it was a mistake to feel Russia was now a part of Europe before, I suppose this will be even more so in the future.

He says unequivocally, ‘These are our lands.Make no mistake about that.’ …That they only ever lost them through a mistake or treachery.

“We shouldn’t leave the Ukrainian question to the future generation” really means we settle for what we can get back of Ukraine right now, and get the rest in the near future.

And it must also mean that some additional heavy censoring, suppression, and brainwashing will be put in place for the young in Russia, and in Eastern Ukraine/Russian territory, to prepare for this.

Copied and pasted here cos of the paywall:

Joe Biden pledges to defend Taiwan militarily if China were to invade
US president’s comments during visit to Tokyo likely to anger Beijing

US president Joe Biden has pledged to defend Taiwan militarily if China were to invade in remarks made during his first visit to Japan.
“Yes. That is the commitment we made,” Biden said at a joint news conference in Tokyo when asked whether he was willing to get involved militarily to defend Taiwan.
Speaking alongside Fumio Kishida, Japan’s prime minister, Biden added that if China were to take Taiwan by force, “it will dislocate the entire region and be another action similar to what happened in Ukraine”.
Biden’s response appeared to conflict with the decades-old US policy of “strategic ambiguity” under which Washington does not make clear if it would defend Taiwan in the face of a military attack from China.
The ambiguous stance is designed to warn Taipei not to declare independence — which would almost certainly spark a Chinese attack — while forcing the Chinese military to reconsider action against Taiwan.
Recommended
Shortly after he spoke in Tokyo, the White House said US policy had not changed. “He reiterated our ‘one China policy’ and our commitment to peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait,” said a White House official. “He also reiterated our commitment under the Taiwan Relations Act to provide Taiwan with the military means to defend itself.”
The comments on Monday came as the US and Japan agreed to boost their security co-operation and deterrence capability, pointing to “China’s increasingly coercive behaviour” and the growing nuclear threat in North Korea.

@Ijsbear · Today 08:18
[note that the Admiral Makarov has also left Sevastopol port into the Black Sea; looks like Ukraine is going to be more heavily attacked by sea in the future. With the ISW reports that Russia is preparing to resume offensives on the Southern axis, this looks like there may be a renewed offensive generally (to my untrained eye) ].

Please would someone explain - wasn’t the Admiral Makarov blown up?

The Moskva was blown up. The Admiral Makarov was attacked and there was a fire but it was towed back to port and apparently the damage must have been quickly repaired