My best guess is it wont be as bad as that but I do think there is a real possibility of rationing.
Its been said for a number of years there is a problem with the UK's energy security and long term strategy. There was concern prior to the war that in the medium term blackouts were a real possibility as older power stationed went off line as planned.
The problem is our lack of surplus capacity. We don't really have much in the way of a contingency plan for any particular crisis over our energy supply.
We know the UK has sailed very close to the wind over the last few years and cut contingency planning to near none existant.
We know real concerns over supply chains were ignored over Brexit and our planning going into each withdrawal stage has been woeful and thats manifested in various mini crisis.
I think that people desparately trying to keep their bills down is going to offset it to an extent too though. People will be consciously using as little as possible without prompting out of sheer necessity. So projections of usage are not going to be as high as expected. This is unlikely to be properly factored in.
Either way December and January could be very bleak indeed. I think in a few months we could be having very heated discussions on MN over Christmas lights (both council ones and home ones) and whether we should be using them. Also see street lights (which will be a particular concern in terms of safety). But yeah I think thats likely to be very real, even if we don't get more serious blackouts.
And I still think we are better placed than many others. We only get a small fraction of our energy from Russia. We should theoretically be contracted in to get most of our gas supplies this winter, but the price point is going to be the problem.
I do think we perhaps are going to be less exposed to shortages compared to elsewhere in Europe. The problem here, will instead be whether you can afford it. Self regulated switch offs are going to be the problem in the UK instead. We will see a spate of house fires and the like as people use candles or real fires in the home. And lots of big concerns over freezing elderly. The Tories will helpfully tell disabled people to get the bus which got axed or sit in a library they long since closed instead and there will be a public meltdown over not being able to get tins of beans at the food bank and even if you do, they are going to be stone cold...
Its not going to be pretty. Even if there is an end to the war by summer imho.
All these things are now 'baked in' to use a phrase much over used in the last couple of years.
We will struggle at this point to contingency plan our way out of this. The fact EDF has said its now too late for one of its nuclear plants is probably a sign of things to come.
Personally my family will cope. It will be easier for us than many Europeans who may well be more likely to face blackouts. However I can't say it will be easier for us as a nation compared to others.
It will be back to the 1970s for many.