Ukraine Invasion: Part 26

[MagicFox]

Here we are, on top of our rock

If you've got the info from public domain then no reason to take it down.......the public alert angle makes some sort of sense but it's surprisingly specific...

I wanted to know what you thought about it. The specific coordinates don't make sense to me but the spread of the 'planned' attacks I find overwhelming. Maybe seeing it written down in one go, rather than hearing about fighting in pockets, was what I found so demoralising.

Thanks again, TheABC. These are comforting words. It helps to see the big picture. My prayers are with Ukraine tonight.

One tiny bit of good news: Guterres' and others' work may have been effective beyond the actual evacuation of Azovstal

UkraineNOW

📣 Danylov: the Russians do not torture the military from "Azovstal"

The secretary of the National Security and Defense Council assured that the soldiers, evacuated from Mariupol's "Azovstal" plant to temporarily occupied Olenivka, are not being tortured at the moment. In the future, they should be exchanged for Russian prisoners.

According to him, the issue of releasing the captured "Azov's" is being solved by people, who took on such guarantees.

Before I turn in, I thought I'd remind us all that big, scary Russia has often fell short of being big and scary. Let's pray that they continue to fall short of their ambitions and their targets.

Vladimir Putin left humiliated after £4m missile only destroys beach toilet

People were quick to mock Russian troops after the missile, worth £4 million, wiped out a public toilet on the beach instead of the city of Odessa, Ukraine t.co/6SJbDYGOJH

@PerkingFaintly · yesterday 19:07
On BBC2 at 23:50 tonight: "Haftar's Russian Mercenaries: Inside the Wagner Group."

I just watched this Perking. Thank you, it was very interesting especially as they interviewed some (actors were used to recreate the interviews).

It seems clear the Wagner group is an extension of Putin’s force even if it is not admitted. They are even transported by Russia’s military.

The first 3000 in the serial numbers of their soldiers were in Eastern Ukraine when war broke out there - so it they were really formed then for that purpose 2014.

Some of them have the same spidery tatoo symbolising some sort of neo-paganism and identification with an ancient legends and nationality. So no different in this from the Azov soldiers called ‘Nazi’. The first leader chose the name because Wagner was Hitler’s favourite composer.

One of them interviewed admitted they do not follow rules of war - they will shoot a captive unless there is something to be gained (including some slave work). Who wants an extra mouth to feed he said.

This is such an incredible relief and fantastic news. Hillsmakeyoustrong, thanks for sharing.

Hoping this restraint by Russia continues and the Mariupol soldiers will get to go home soon.

There has been little to nothing about Azov on Russian state news, after the initial first few days when they came out. I'm taking that as a good sign, because if they will end up exchanging them, it won't be a popular decision in Russia, so they'd want to divert the focus/keep quiet about it, rather than parading them around.

Obviously that's just pure speculation, but ir does give hope.

@Hillsmakeyoustrong · Today 23:04
Before I turn in, I thought I'd remind us all that big, scary Russia has often fell short of being big and scary. Let's pray that they continue to fall short of their ambitions and their targets.

Vladimir Putin left humiliated after £4m missile only destroys beach toilet

People were quick to mock Russian troops after the missile, worth £4 million, wiped out a public toilet on the beach instead of the city of Odessa, Ukrainehttps://t.co/6SJbDYGOJH

That is cheering Hillsmakeyoustrong, especially after seeing that long list of targets earlier.

@Ijsbear and @OwlsDance that is very good news about the Azovstal prisoners.

@katem98 · Today 21:31
Story here from Russian conscripts Mother...

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61599932

I saw this on the BBC news at 10. Those boys were lucky to have a mother like her facing down the Russian military and getting them out of Ukraine. She has been very brave. It is sad she knows they have come back changed and disillusioned with their lives. I hope she will be all right having spoken to the BBC.

Looking at the other side: Wagner Group.

A VK channel claiming to be passing on some of the things they are doing currently has drone views of artillery and a drone strike. There are pictures of Wagnerites being masked and confident.

vk.com/chvk.vaqner

Testing on a different browser to the one I am signed in on: if you don't have a VK account, there is a dim close X button when a Sign In / Sign Up message appears.

The Lithuanian PM joined the Thursday evening Bayraktar fundraiser.

Why give out a list of very specific targets?

I think there is some sense to this. They are targets the Russians know about. The Ukrainians can not move or hide them.

The accuracy of Russian attacks has been really terrible. They don't have the capability. I think the figure i saw was something like only 40% of their bombs were hitting their intended target. There are obvious implications of this for civilians.

I had a quick look at the references to Belarus last night and there was widespread noise which seems to be coming from reputable sources and was getting picked up by western journalists about the likelihood of a stepping up of attacks on western Ukraine.

I will try and post shortly more about that.

@AskingQuestionsAllTheTime

I didn’t take it this way 🙂

Law and Justice (har,har) have practised boiling the frogs (society) for a long time. Corruption scandals, money vanishing in the pockets of prominent politicians, 2 billion (!) PLN spent on their propaganda tube (Polish Television) and taken away from healthcare (oncology and child mental health services being worst affected).
Numerous cover ups for catholic priests practising paedophilia and so on.
The last straw was creating a tribunal that decided that nearly all abortions are prohibited (even the ones that are not compatible with life). A few women died since then as the medical personnel don’t want to be taken to court and accused of helping in abortion resulting in prison sentence.
Women came out to streets,some of them were beaten by the police.

Anti abortion policy is also not good with Ukrainian women and girls that have been raped and might be pregnant.The stories coming from these poor people- I don’t want to repeat them.

I really do hope that Ukraine is going to win this war otherwise nothing’s going to stop this madman Putler.

Kadyrov stated in one of this tiktok videos that Poland will be next after Ukraine.

In the meantime Kaliningrad situation re supplies is getting worse. They are demanding opening the borders to Lithuania and Poland to go shopping. Border with Poland used to be open until covid hit then it was shut and hasn’t reopened since.Russians from Kaliningrad don’t fancy trip by boat to St.Petersburg.

The only good thing coming from this is Poles and Ukrainians seem to put aside the painful history behind them (Wolyn and I think it’s called Ukrainian Insurgence Army).

Anyway, Slava Ukraini🇺🇦

@FrenchBoule There was a lovely message from Zelenskyy about the relationhsip now with Poland, speaking ofc from the Ukrainian side

I am glad to note that Ukrainian-Polish relations are finally on a completely clean, sincere basis, without any quarrels and old conflict heritage. This is an achievement. The historical achievement of our nations. And I want the brotherhood between Ukrainians and Poles to be preserved forever. As I said about this today to the deputies: for our unity, the unity of Ukrainians and Poles, to be a constant value that no one will violate

A polish online friend is saying that Russia is making an absolute shit load of fake accounts on every social media possible and putting it out that there's a load of support for Russia, including no less than entire fake towns!.

@Ijsbear sadly that’s true re trolls. Some Polish websites reporting the events from Ukraine have disabled the comments.
Internet is heaving with them, most shit stirrers bring up Wolyn (massacres of Polish civilians by UIA).
Shame they don’t bring up what Soviet Army was doing in Poland and subsequent decades under Soviet rule. Fuck you Soviet Union,still remember food rations that finished in 1989.
To me history is history, Present generations of Ukrainians are so responsible for Wolyn as present Germans are for WW II.

I know that there are good Russian people,shame that mentality of Russian army and some citizens hasn’t changed for the last century.

Funny now you mention fake Facebook accounts has anyone else been overwhelmed on SM with fake accounts that are clones of your friends? Think I’ve had about 10 try to add me in the past 2 days.

ISW

Key Takeaways

Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to advance southeast of Izyum near the Kharkiv-Donetsk Oblast border.

Russian forces continued steady advances around Severodonetsk and likely seek to completely encircle the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area in the coming days.

Russian forces continued to make persistent advances south and west of Popasna toward Bakhmut, but the Russian pace of advance will likely slow as they approach the town itself.

Russian forces in occupied areas of the Southern Axis are reportedly preparing a “third line of defense” to consolidate long-term control over the region and in preparation to repel likely future Ukrainian counteroffensives.

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Ukrainian Ministry of Defense combat roundup www.mil.gov.ua/en/news/2022/05/27/the-operational-update-regarding-the-russian-invasion-on-06-00-on-may-27-2022/

+++

The Kyiv Independent, [27/05/2022 00:21]
⚡️ Ukraine’s military repels 12 Russian attacks in Donbas.

The Kyiv Independent, [27/05/2022 00:57]
⚡️ Heavy fighting near Sievierodonetsk as Russian forces attempt to take city.

The Kyiv Independent, [27/05/2022 00:40]
⚡️ Reuters: US, Ukraine discuss risk of escalation amid weapons provisions.

As western partners equip Ukraine with increasingly sophisticated, longer-range weapons, the U.S. spoke of the danger of escalation should Ukraine hit Russia’s interior, reports Reuters, citing unnamed U.S. and diplomatic officials.

“We have concerns about escalation and yet still do not want to put geographic limits or tie their (Ukraine's) hands too much with the stuff we're giving them," a U.S. official reportedly said.

[I think this is important. Attacking inside Russia will escalate things, even though it's terrible to not fire back. I wonder if Zelensky will have to give promises -not- to fire into Russia as a condition of getting the weopons? and ... see below]

The Kyiv Independent, [27/05/2022 01:38]
⚡️ CNN: US preparing to authorize long-range rocket systems for Ukraine.

According to cited officials, the U.S. will provide Ukraine with long-range rocket systems, potentially as part of a larger military and humanitarian aid package to be announced as early as next week.

Ukraine has repeatedly requested the provision of MLRS and HIMARS.

⚡️ Media: Russia kidnaps men in Chechnya, forces them to fight.

⚡️ Pentagon: US will not involve military to assist export of grains from Ukraine

⚡️US Defense Department: Nearly 80% of howitzers US committed to Ukraine already in combat.

⚡️ Economic advisor: Ukraine has sufficient grain reserves to meet domestic, global demand until end of year. President Volodymyr Zelensky’s economic advisor, Oleh Ustenko, said that Ukraine's grain reserves will meet demand until at least 2022, provided hostilities in the Black Sea are ended.

⚡️ISW: Russian forces in occupied regions of Ukraine's south preparing for long-term control over region.

+++

From UkraineNOW:

🤯 Major General of the Russian Police Oleh Yakushev is suspected in organizing looting at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant.

During the occupation of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant by Russian troops under his command, property worth about $1 million disappeared, and a laboratory was destroyed, making it impossible to control radioactive waste. [mm, sensible!]

⚡️Adviser to the President of Ukraine, Oleh Ustenko, said that Russian troops are currently shelling any ships, that appear in the Black Sea.
But if the region ceases to fire, Ukraine will react quickly and grain ships will leave ports.

⚡️ Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi said that in a conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin, he "does not see hope for peace" in Ukraine.

+++

www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/05/26/russia-confirms-sacking-100-servicemen-for-refusing-to-fight-in-ukraine-a77817

+++
Kyiv Independent

07:33 AM
external Russia transfers naval, air, ground forces from Crimea in direction of Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

The Zaporizhzhia regional military administration reported on May 26 that a Russian convoy of military equipment and accompanying tanks were spotted passing Melitopol. Russian forces are also reportedly building a “third line of defense,” shifting reinforcements to consolidate their positions in southern Ukraine.

+++

Lavrov's sucking up to the Father of Lies again, claiming that the West is preventing Zelenskyy from making peace. [censor-net]

The West mulls having oligarchs pay their way out of sanctions apnews-com.translate.goog/article/russia-ukraine-putin-roman-abramovich-sports-4d6634fa97a03ae023c385f06301b137?_x_tr_sl=uk&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=sc

+++

reports from Meduza that the Russian govt is increasing pressure on Russians who fight for Ukraine - there are some! meduza.io/en/slides/harder-crueler-longer

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[this is very hard to read, no details though]

Euromaidan PR
@EuromaidanPR
·
13h
The #Russians are purposefully exterminating the female population in #Kherson region.

Women simply disappear and are not found.

Some women and girls delete pages from social media in order not to become the next victim.

What follows is always rape, torture and death.

+++

The Kyiv Independent
@KyivIndependent
·
1h
The intelligence update also said 50-year-old T-62 tanks Russia recently moved into southern Ukraine “will almost certainly be particularly vulnerable to anti-tank weapons and their presence on the battlefield highlights Russia’s shortage of modern, combat-ready equipment.”

+++

(I will admit Mumsnet seems to be getting the site stuff together a bit better now)

[I think this is important. Attacking inside Russia will escalate things, even though it's terrible to not fire back. I wonder if Zelensky will have to give promises -not- to fire into Russia as a condition of getting the weopons? and ... see below]

I sincerely hope not!
How does say hitting Russian supply lines (in Russia) escalate things? Ukraine in the East, is being systematically destroyed, the World is facing mass starvation in the developing world and inflation in the rich West.
As you reported on, mass disappearances of women and girls.

Asking Ukraine to fight with one hand behind its back is totally wrong, Russia seems to know no limits in its desire to take Ukraine and once (if ?) they get the Donbas etc, they will turn their attentions to Odessa and Kyiv.
Then they will try and take all of Ukraine.

Very worried that our (UK) focus seems to have left Ukraine recently.

Lawrence Freedman's latest post, 'How long will the war last?' https://samf.substack.com/p/how-long-will-the-war-last?s=r&utmcampaign=post&utmmmedium=web&utmsource=direct

Summary excerpt if too long to read right now:

On how to stop the war there has been no progress and no contact. For the reasons explained above Zelensky has no interest in a cease-fire that freezes the current position and allows it turn into a de facto international border. Diplomacy will only come into play as far as he is concerned when it will lead to a return to the position as of 23 February. Putin seems still to hope for more, and insists on concessions that Ukraine will not make. Those in the West worrying about what happens if the Russian hold on Crimea looks vulnerable, and on that basis urging Kyiv to compromise, might note that Moscow still acts as if it has more to conquer. As I emphasis in all these posts all calculations can change, depending on what happens in the fighting.
Wars rarely follow straight paths. There can be periods of intense activity, followed by pauses, even truces, as both sides regroup, and then return to heavy combat. Front lines can appear static, only for there to be a sudden breakthrough. Armies can appear robust, only to be revealed as brittle. A dash forward can lead to overextension and then retreat. They therefore do not follow a set timetable and it is impossible to say when this war will end. The prudent assumption for now is that this is not a short-term emergency but, for those countries supporting Ukraine, a long-term commitment, that there is no easy diplomatic fix, and that Ukraine will keep on fighting for as long as it takes to regain its lost territory.

Excerpt attached from Julia Ioffe's interview with Boris Bondarev, the Russian diplomat who defected. This is an example of why we can't be so gung ho about Russia's sabre rattling. There's a lot of dangerous language (sometimes on here and certainly on Twitter) that reflects exactly what the Russians say here! "Oh they'll never do it". We need to pray for clear heads and intelligent statesmen. twitter.com/marquardta/status/1529866697288536071?s=21&t=3O4pnk8AvzaCOKwsN-rcyQ

Important thread from Head of European council in Berlin:

threadreaderapp.com/thread/1530099655203336192.html

Well this is depressing. I hate thinking about it but definitely something that we can't be so flippant about, I suppose!

yes @katem98 but try to remember that at least none of these people are actually making the decisions. Though I'm surprised to see it reflecting the madness of Russian state tv quite so closely

I've followed these threads (but definitely not been able to understand most of the geopolitical data and meanings) with a mixture of hope and despair. Today it's about despair with not a little fear of where we are all headed. Some words and phrases tend to catch my eye and it's these which mean I screen out the other contextual stuff. Hope that makes sense!

Is more information and knowledge necessarily better than less? Can educating myself really help? Am I unsusual in being afraid of knowing more?