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Ukraine Invasion: Part 26

993 replies

MagicFox · 20/05/2022 09:35

Here we are, on top of our rock

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Thread gallery
61
MagicFox · 27/05/2022 11:15

You're better off engaging with the contextual stuff, otherwise you'll only see the shock words

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Ijsbear · 27/05/2022 11:16

Russian losses

Ukraine Invasion: Part 26
MagicFox · 27/05/2022 11:20

twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/1529972192498311185?s=21&t=-yKJUtvHwQ5Vp7j4_fa5Uw

Looks like this thread was made for you @usernamenotaccepted! Just came up in my feed

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ScrollingLeaves · 27/05/2022 11:21

@Ijsbear · Today 08:46
Key Takeaways
Thank you very much.
*Euromaidan PR
13h
The #Russians are purposefully exterminating the female population in #Kherson region.

Women simply disappear and are not found.

Some women and girls delete pages from social media in order not to become the next victim.

What follows is always rape, torture and death.

There are no words for the horror of this.

After WW11 people were willing to forgive Russia their atrocities committed on a massive scale on the grounds that all that they had been through might have caused their behaviour. Now it seems they may have some proclivity towards behaving this way within their psyche, or cultural identity, as expressed through their army. Maybe they see it as some sort of cataclysmic ritual.

This goes well beyond anything silently expected as an inevitable part of war in 21st century modern Europe I would have thought.

Ijsbear · 27/05/2022 11:30

usernamenotaccepted · 27/05/2022 11:05

I've followed these threads (but definitely not been able to understand most of the geopolitical data and meanings) with a mixture of hope and despair. Today it's about despair with not a little fear of where we are all headed. Some words and phrases tend to catch my eye and it's these which mean I screen out the other contextual stuff. Hope that makes sense!

Is more information and knowledge necessarily better than less? Can educating myself really help? Am I unsusual in being afraid of knowing more?

I dont think you're unusual at all in being afraid to know more. People who are afraid have some grasp of the situation! and the imagination to guess at some of what -could- happen.

Personally it helps me to have an overview of the situation and to keep the bigger picture in mind, with some sort of superficial awareness of all the threads that go into making that big picture. Not knowing makes it worse, for me. Rather face the devil we know than not having any idea what might happen.

A lot of it - and I mean this kindly, I have the same rollercoaster as you sometimes - comes down to our emotional involvement rather than absorbing reports at an intellectual level. I find a balance of the two helps. These threads help keep my feet on the ground especially as there is such a huge wealth of knowledge and experience in many different areas and it all contributes to a greater understanding.

When it gets too much, as it does sometimes, it helps to go for a walk/swim and keep away from the screens. It's easy to get sucked in and we -do- all have our own lives. We're doing what we can, but the fact is that in the UK and many other countries at the moment we are safe.

I do think educating yourself helps. It helps you assess for yourself how realistic something is when the media reports something. For instance, the Mail's ridiculous and extreme nuclear fear mongering, when you have more knowledge of what's going on and have learned jsut HOW much Lavrov lies and bullshits, well, you see the headline and instead of being scared you can mostly eyeroll. Knowing more helps you understand why various weopons are being sent and others aren't, and notimagain's excellent posts early on about why sending aircraft would be very very difficult.

You have to find what balance of info works for you, to keep your feet on the ground and your head level :)

Ijsbear · 27/05/2022 11:31

This goes well beyond anything silently expected as an inevitable part of war in 21st century modern Europe I would have thought.

Have to admit I no longer think of Russian culture as being one of the European cultures. Perhaps it was only ever an illusion of mine.

ScrollingLeaves · 27/05/2022 11:35

@Ijsbear 08:46
reports from Meduza that the Russian govt is increasing pressure on Russians who fight for Ukraine - there are some! meduza.io/en/slides/harder-crueler-longer

If those Russian passports being given out in occupied territories are not altogether optional, perhaps Ukrainians who end up with them will find themselves in danger of being accused of treason if they are not very careful.

usernamenotaccepted · 27/05/2022 11:48

@MagicFox and @Ijsbear

Thank you for taking the time to reply. That twitter thread is very helpful, makes so much sense, you're right. And yes, I really like notimagain as well, very clear thinking and straight to the point.

ScrollingLeaves · 27/05/2022 11:49

@MagicFox
Thank you for your informative links this morning.

The last one to “usernamenitaccepted” about not seeing the wood for the trees, and advice to step away from time to time is timely and appreciated.

MagicFox · 27/05/2022 11:54

Glad they helped :-)

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Ijsbear · 27/05/2022 11:56

From Kyiv independent

❗️The Russian invaders forcibly took almost all the men from the DNR to the war. This was reported to the Security Service of Ukraine by a prisoner who had been "mobilized" in the temporarily occupied Donetsk region.

"We don't care about politics, we are working people, we were just working... And we were mobilized, almost 100% of the male population! Do you know what they call the DNR (engl. Donetsk People Republic) now? FNR (engl. Female People's Republic)! There are practically no men left there", - the prisoner said.

TargusEasting · 27/05/2022 12:49

Ijsbear · 27/05/2022 11:31

This goes well beyond anything silently expected as an inevitable part of war in 21st century modern Europe I would have thought.

Have to admit I no longer think of Russian culture as being one of the European cultures. Perhaps it was only ever an illusion of mine.

Yes, I have a lot to reconcile in my own mind too. The veneer when peeled back is multi layered and goes very deep.

notimagain · 27/05/2022 12:56

The accuracy of Russian attacks has been really terrible. They don't have the capability. I think the figure i saw was something like only 40% of their bombs were hitting their intended target.

Blimey, Mumsnet slides into Qualified Weapons Instructor territory...

To discuss this sensibly firstly you need to define "hit".

For many munitions actually hitting with 40% of the ordnance is pretty good.

Worth also looking back at actual footage of Ukraine SAM/radar heads destroyed on day one and for example the Lviv POL site hit a month or two back before deciding they don't have the capability.

The reality is they have got capability and it can be pretty good... also at times just like western ordnance it can be v poor for all sorts of reasons

blueshoes · 27/05/2022 13:11

I am reading the latest posts about women in Kherson and men in DNR disappearing with a sense that horrors will never cease.

Of course I read about bad things in the news (not just Ukraine of course) all the time and sometimes I war game it in my head what I would do in that situation. But the unending stream of truly unspeakable things that are being perpetrated by Russia en masse on fellow human beings goes beyond even human comprehension. I cannot even begin to get a handle on the horror.

This is Sophie's Choice X 10,000+

CasualObserverUK · 27/05/2022 14:11

I do like the 2nd part of this Tweet. Well done Boris.

The Kyiv Independent
@KyivIndependent
⚡️ Johnson calls for giving Ukraine long-range weapons.

U.K. PM Boris Johnson told Bloomberg that more military support for Ukraine is needed, including providing multiple launch rocket systems. He added that Russia is making slow but "palpable" progress in the Donbas.
1:30 pm · 27 May 2022·Twitter Web App

Johnson also warned against negotiating with Russian President Vladimir Putin, comparing him to a crocodile.
1:31 pm · 27 May 2022·Twitter Web App

TargusEasting · 27/05/2022 14:17

notimagain · 27/05/2022 12:56

The accuracy of Russian attacks has been really terrible. They don't have the capability. I think the figure i saw was something like only 40% of their bombs were hitting their intended target.

Blimey, Mumsnet slides into Qualified Weapons Instructor territory...

To discuss this sensibly firstly you need to define "hit".

For many munitions actually hitting with 40% of the ordnance is pretty good.

Worth also looking back at actual footage of Ukraine SAM/radar heads destroyed on day one and for example the Lviv POL site hit a month or two back before deciding they don't have the capability.

The reality is they have got capability and it can be pretty good... also at times just like western ordnance it can be v poor for all sorts of reasons

Yes, I agree with you @notimagain

Both sides are using (have been using) very old kit dating in some cases to the 1950's to 1980's. Depending on range the accuracy seems to be about 200m (maybe a bit more). This is very evident by some of the clips on You Tube or Ukrainian news sites where you have about 30 seconds of the round coming in and striking the Russian tank. What can also be seen and what they do not show is 30-40 small craters - which on poor quality video looks like black dots - littered around the area and typically across several fields. In many cases I would be amazed if the accuracy was 10%. This is why Ukraine wants the latest systems which have an accuracy of 2 metres, certainly by round two. I can understand the reluctance in giving this unconditionally though.

CasualObserverUK · 27/05/2022 14:18

Very much looks like Long Range heavy weapons are coming to Ukraine.
Both Boris and The Biden Administration approve it.

US preparing to approve advanced long-range rocket system for Ukraine

Washington (CNN)The Biden administration is preparing to step up the kind of weaponry it is offering Ukraine by sending advanced, long-range rocket systems that are now the top request from Ukrainian officials, multiple officials say.
The administration is leaning toward sending the systems as part of a larger package of military and security assistance to Ukraine, which could be announced as soon as next week.
Senior Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelensky, have pleaded in recent weeks for the US and its allies to provide the Multiple Launch Rocket System, or MLRS. The US-made weapon systems can fire a barrage of rockets hundreds of kilometers — much farther than any of the systems Ukraine already has — which the Ukrainians argue could be a gamechanger in their war against Russia.

CNN article from this morning

notimagain · 27/05/2022 14:19

CasualObserverUK · 27/05/2022 14:11

I do like the 2nd part of this Tweet. Well done Boris.

The Kyiv Independent
@KyivIndependent
⚡️ Johnson calls for giving Ukraine long-range weapons.

U.K. PM Boris Johnson told Bloomberg that more military support for Ukraine is needed, including providing multiple launch rocket systems. He added that Russia is making slow but "palpable" progress in the Donbas.
1:30 pm · 27 May 2022·Twitter Web App

Johnson also warned against negotiating with Russian President Vladimir Putin, comparing him to a crocodile.
1:31 pm · 27 May 2022·Twitter Web App

Admirable sentiments but by "calls for" is the PM actually going to facilitate delivery of the likes of MLRS from UK stock (if we still have any, one for @TargusEasting ) or is he just trying to pressurise POTUS into doing the facilitating, leaving any UK stocks intact?

edition.cnn.com/2022/05/26/politics/us-long-range-rockets-ukraine-mlrs/index.html

CasualObserverUK · 27/05/2022 14:24

@notimagain

Going by experience and past events - if it's in the news I'll guess it's already there or in neighbouring countries ready to be shipped in.

RedToothBrush · 27/05/2022 14:27

notimagain · 27/05/2022 12:56

The accuracy of Russian attacks has been really terrible. They don't have the capability. I think the figure i saw was something like only 40% of their bombs were hitting their intended target.

Blimey, Mumsnet slides into Qualified Weapons Instructor territory...

To discuss this sensibly firstly you need to define "hit".

For many munitions actually hitting with 40% of the ordnance is pretty good.

Worth also looking back at actual footage of Ukraine SAM/radar heads destroyed on day one and for example the Lviv POL site hit a month or two back before deciding they don't have the capability.

The reality is they have got capability and it can be pretty good... also at times just like western ordnance it can be v poor for all sorts of reasons

I said the figure i saw and my point was if missiles aren't hitting what they are supposed to and they are aiming at X then the places most at risk are the places close to X.

I didn't think that was verging on being any kind of missile expert nor claiming to be and I think you are being a bit of a pendent in suggesting I am.

And quite frankly rude.

Ijsbear · 27/05/2022 14:30

@TargusEasting there was an astonishing picture of several cratered fields on Twitter this morning. The worst case of black pockmarks imagineable. That was a lot of someones ordinance not hitting the mark!

CasualObserverUK · 27/05/2022 14:40

Very short video enclosed here of Boris describing Putin as a Crocodile.

Putin The Croc

TheABC · 27/05/2022 15:17

It's genocide in Kherson. Ship the men off to war, and destroy the women.
Given how Russia has treated the Dombas region to date (outright theft, extortion, collapse of private business etc.), this is the more extreme version. It's the Robber Barons x 1000 with no consequences for crime.

I am on Twitter and reading Phillips P.OBrien with interest.

"the best word to describe Russian advances in the last week, since the supposed Popasna breakthrough, is incremental. Have there been Russian advances--definitely. Maybe at its most extreme 10 miles. (2 miles a day at the most extreme), but the Pentagon description makes a lot of sense (at least to me)."

It sounds like painfully slow attrition, rather than Ukraine crumbling under fire. When you bear in mind the military difference between the two countries, on a flat ground of Russia's choosing - it's downright embarrassing.

notimagain · 27/05/2022 15:25

@RedToothBrush

If may...

"I didn't think that was verging on being any kind of missile expert nor claiming to be and I think you are being a bit of a pendent in suggesting I am."

Not wishing to start a spat so I'll keep it short;

I guess it might have been accidental but you did make a very authoritative, definitive statement on specific military capability that did come over a little bit as making it look as if you had some expertise.

MagicFox · 27/05/2022 15:57

Good article about democracy and autocracy that lays out the depressing move towards the latter that characterises just about everywhere (inc US and France) and ends hopefully: www.journalofdemocracy.org/why-putin-must-be-defeated/

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