Ukraine Invasion: Part 26

[MagicFox]

Here we are, on top of our rock

I am very shocked to know Europe is still buying 15% more oil from Russia. And we are blaming India /China.
India says India's full 1 month supply is what we buy and spend just for an AFTERNOON from Russia.😱
Jaishankar is Indian foreign minister replying where Elizabeth Truss,Foreign Secretary,UK is also sitting, she had no answer.

Ukraine was weak. In 2014 Russia pretty much waltzed in and took Crimea. They assumed same would happen in February this year. Instead, Ukraine showed unbelievable strength and Russia is having its arse handed back.

And here we are, so many interpretations of one statement.

Oh he meant this, oh he meant that, oh he meant the other thing.

As I said, a good soundbite, that's all.

I think its true though. Russia respects only inflexible strength and competitive winning by any measure. Judging by its behaviour it doesn't see strength in talk, compromise an working together.

In an Olympic competition the time before last the team was known for the number of unfortunate arm breakages etc that their opponants got. Sure they got a bad rep. But their opponants were out of the competition. Winning was all, friendly and honourable competitiveness was nowhere.

This is quite interesting

meduza.io/en/feature/2022/05/24/almost-nobody-is-happy-with-putin

@OwlsDance · Today 12:53

“ChardonnaysBeastlyCat
"President of Latvia, Egils Levits just made a very important statement in Davos in response to Putin’s nuclear sabre rattling: “Russia is not provoked by strength, Russia is provoked by weakness.” This comes from someone sitting right on the front line."

Not sure about that statement. It's a soundbite that doesn't make sense.

If Russia is provoked by weakness, then why did they go for Ukraine? Ukraine has never been weak.”

OwlsDance said
”Ukraine was weak. In 2014 Russia pretty much waltzed in and took Crimea. They assumed same would happen in February this year. Instead, Ukraine showed unbelievable strength and Russia is having its arse handed back.”

ChardonnaysBeastlyCat replied · Today 13:00
“And here we are, so many interpretations of one statement.

Oh he meant this, oh he meant that, oh he meant the other thing.

As I said, a good soundbite, that's all.”

I think what he said about weakness is also said by the Estonian PM but she gives specific examples. This is from Al Jazeera’s report:

Estonian PM says ‘a bad peace’ must be avoided

Ukraine has to be able to negotiate with Russia from a position of strength so that Moscow is not encouraged to take further aggressive action, Estonia’s prime minister says.

“We must avoid a bad peace, a badly negotiated peace for Ukraine would mean a bad peace for us all,” Kaja Kallas said in a speech while on a visit to Stockholm, Sweden.

“It is much more dangerous giving in to Putin, than provoking him. All these seemingly small concessions to the aggressor lead to big wars. We have done this mistake already three times: Georgia, Crimea and Donbas,” she added.
www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/5/24/situation-in-ukraines-luhansk-worse-with-every-hour-governor-liveblog

President Putin and Defense Minister Shoigu have visited a hospital to meet with some Russian soldiers injured in Ukraine.

mobile.twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1529455922061385731

What do we make of Putin condition from today’s clip?

Putin's neck is puffy and his swallowing is odd.

But most of all his chest seems remarkably rigid. His head-movement has no ripple on in his shoulders and chest. It -could- be that he's wearing a bullet proof vest under his coat which has been seen elsewhere recently, specially in the light of the attempted assassination 2 months ago (if that really happened). Maybe the bullet proof vest would have prevented normal movement. But even so his shoulders and torso look odd. HIs head nods seem minimal but he's always been a master of bodylanguage.

His arms and hands lie quiet by his side which is very rare for him in recent clips. Is it definitely his head on his body?

Shoigu looks like a meek shadow.

In summary, if that's really Putin's head on Putin's body he doesn't look well or in fluid control of the situation. But eh, Im not trained in deep fakery!

If you were faking him surely you would photoshop his head onto a better body than that?!

My guess is a combination of illness and seriously hefty bulletproof vest.

Yeah, seems the most likely.

On BBC2 at 23:50 tonight: "Haftar's Russian Mercenaries: Inside the Wagner Group."

Talking about spitting fakes, this Twitter from yesterday showing a group of Ukrainians soldiers refusing to fight anymore was back.

Do you think this seems a bit unnatural? Why would he need to read it out really? These could be people in soldiers’s clothes. I find it unsettling not knowing what to believe, which is the point I suppose. Maybe someone on this thread will understand what he is saying.
twitter.com/timand2037/status/1528730913982631936?s=20&t=G42BH-RSHH8-fwWB76m76g

Same. Rather despairing of it all today.

🇬🇧The UK has refused to ease sanctions against Russia in exchange for a corridor for grain exports from Ukraine

🇦🇹Austria will accept up to 100 severely injured women and children from Ukraine for treatment and rehabilitation

🇪🇪Estonian Defense Minister, Kalle Laanet, is convinced that Ukraine will win the war, and for Russia, the war must end in a real defeat

🇸🇰The Prime Minister of Slovakia, Eduard Heger, has stated that Putin will start war against his country, if he will be able to capture Ukraine. Therefore, in his opinion, the time for compromises to Russia must end.

🇱🇻Latvian Defense Minister Artis Pabriks announced, that those, calling for a ceasefire are "inviting to the next war".

"We might be the next countries, so be careful what you say", - he underlined.

‼️🤬The head of the Luhansk Regional War Administration, Serhiy Haidai, informed that about 95% of the Luhansk region is captured. He stated that the situation in Donbass is terrible at the moment. Ukraine desperately needs weapons for protection.

:(((((

According to various sources it appears that at least some of the French supplied 155mm Long Range Self Propelled Guns (the Caesar system) have now arrived in theatre.

For example:

twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1529407127466418176?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1529407127466418176%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=

This poem really resonates today, this year. Felt I had to post it in case it captures how others are feeling.

Good Bones (Maggie Smith)

Life is short, though I keep this from my children.
Life is short, and I’ve shortened mine
in a thousand delicious, ill-advised ways,
a thousand deliciously ill-advised ways
I’ll keep from my children. The world is at least
fifty percent terrible, and that’s a conservative
estimate, though I keep this from my children.
For every bird there is a stone thrown at a bird.
For every loved child, a child broken, bagged,
sunk in a lake. Life is short and the world
is at least half terrible, and for every kind
stranger, there is one who would break you,
though I keep this from my children. I am trying
to sell them the world. Any decent realtor,
walking you through a real shithole, chirps on
about good bones: This place could be beautiful,
right? You could make this place beautiful.

That is worrying but it was never going to be easy for Ukraine, they need weapons quickly. Russia is pouring everything into the Donbass at the moment but if we remember it looked as bad at the start when the world thought Kyiv would be taken

@Ijsbear · Today 20:11
‼️🤬The head of the Luhansk Regional War Administration, Serhiy Haidai, informed that about 95% of the Luhansk region is captured. He stated that the situation in Donbass is terrible at the moment. Ukraine desperately needs weapons for protection.

The prospect seems desperate, and bleak.

I keep telling myself that the stats say an invading army needs to be at least three times the size of a defending one, and that the Ukrainians have a great deal more incentive to fight than the Russian children and conscripts do.

I suspect the latter is why there has been an outbreak of "Ukrainians refuse to fight, get shot for deserting" unverified rumours from Russians on Twitter and the like: they are aware of the difference between the forces involved.

@MagicFox cFox · Today 21:00
This poem really resonates today, this year. Felt I had to post it in case it captures how others are feeling.

Good Bones (Maggie Smith)

Life is short, though I keep this from my children.
Life is short, and I’ve shortened mine
in a thousand delicious, ill-advised ways,
a thousand deliciously ill-advised ways
I’ll keep from my children. The world is at least
fifty percent terrible, and that’s a conservative
estimate, though I keep this from my children.
For every bird there is a stone thrown at a bird.
For every loved child, a child broken, bagged,
sunk in a lake. Life is short and the world
is at least half terrible, and for every kind
stranger, there is one who would break you,
though I keep this from my children. I am trying
to sell them the world. Any decent realtor,
walking you through a real shithole, chirps on
about good bones: This place could be beautiful,
right? You could make this place beautiful.

Thank you, this poem is so apt for how the world feels.

Also don't forget that Russia has a vested interest in making the west feel that there is no hope for Ukraine they think we will stop backing them. At the moment the negatives are being magnified, the head of Ukrainian intelligence was reported as saying yesterday that they expect to be in Crimea by the end of the year

I suspect the latter is why there has been an outbreak of "Ukrainians refuse to fight, get shot for deserting" unverified rumours from Russians on Twitter and the like: they are aware of the difference between the forces involved.

Could be right. Talking to a polish friend today and the misinformation they are being subject to is huge

The world is getting better.

Absolute poverty and hunger are down, polio is on the verge of extinction, there are effective treatments for river blindness, ebola, AIDs and malaria. Violence (including war) is down by historic standards whilst the number of children being educated beyond primary school has gone up. The hole in the ozone layer is shrinking, it's now cheaper to build renewables than coal stations and the world's first treaty on plastic is happening at light speed.

Compared to a century ago - fuck, even when I was born 40 years ago - the world is a better place. However, our expectations and access to information have also grown accordingly. We would have found out about Bucha 6 months down the line after the war had ended; not days after Russia's withdrawal. Ditto the current situation; it's not the end and I would be amazed if the politicians and diplomats were not working on the weapons supply behind the scenes.

As for America and it's gun violence - well, that can be solved but as I said elsewhere, it needs the same time and attention as the campaign against smoking.

Sorry to drip feed but quite frankly we can't allow those bastards to get in our heads, not after we know what they do.