Ukraine Invasion: Part 26

[MagicFox]

Here we are, on top of our rock

Phillips P OBrien AT PhillipsPObrien
Very quick discussion of what we have seen in the battle of the Donbas over the past 17 days. With the withdrawal of some Ukrainian forces from the southwest of Popasna, here is the assumed sitmap today and on May 7 AT TheStudyofWar

We see Russian advances from Popasna and other places of 25 kilometres at most, that’s approx 17 miles. Around Lyman and SDonetsk it’s fewer. These remain slow, incremental advances. Seem to be town to town, village to village. Equal to a mile a day.

Under no understanding of modern combined arms war would the Russians have been considered to have made a breakout and pursuit/exploitation. Its a grinding, attritional advance. Could the Russians surround SDonetsk? Yes. But they will do it following a WW1 timetable.

And the question is not what town they take. What matters is the relative wastage of equipment and soldiers on each side. To make these small advances the Russians have stopped large scale operations almost everywhere else.

And the question is not what town they take. What matters is the relative wastage of equipment and soldiers on each side. To make these small advances the Russians have stopped large scale operations almost everywhere else.

I’m quite stoic but those links are too much and feel a bit unnecessarily graphic.

Excellent map of the front.

I think there is a good chance that we will see a Ukrainian retreat from Severodonetsk. Not sure of the timescale. It looks like they have the capability to hold the city. The problem is the risk of being cut off.

This was reported 3 days ago.

Christopher Miller AT christopherjm
Situation in Lyman deteriorated overnight. I’m with Ukrainian forces, police, medics evacuating civilians & it’s near-constant artillery duels. American M777 howitzers working nearby, troops say. People fleeing are distraught, describe desperation. 100+ evacuated so far today.

These civilians, including 92-year-old Nina Tikhomirova (pictured third, riding with me in an ambulance), were among more than 100 people who were able to be evacuated from Raihorodok today under heavy shelling. Many others were unable to leave today.

It has now been reported half of Lyman has been taken by Russia.

Neil Hauer AT neilphauer is also reporting from the area.

He said this yesterday

Neil Hauer AT neilphauer
Talking to two police officers just back from Lyman. They stress the need for more anti-air systems and jets. "We can't handle the Russian aviation. Today already, there were five airstrikes, planes flying just over us. We don't have enough forces to repel the Russian assault."

AT dom_kanal also has a journalist Anastasia Volkova who is still reporting from Severodonetsk. It is her home town.

I think from what I'm reading we will hear confirmation that Lyman has completely fallen soon enough.

Definitely not going so well for Ukraine at the moment, but equally Russia should be achieving more...

Yes agreed @Igotjelly. I can't fathom the fact that these absolute bastards would actually want to do something like this. It's beyond comprehension and makes me SO angry and sad!

Thank you @Ijsbear @RedToothBrush
for the roundup of news this morning.

@katem98 · Today 07:53

Re: Igotjelly had said how she normally had a strong stomach but those reports (rape) were unnecessarily graphic

Yes agreed @Igotjelly. I can't fathom the fact that these absolute bastards would actually want to do something like this. It's beyond comprehension and makes me SO angry and sad!

It is beyond any nightmare and it seems to be worse than ever.

Reading what RedToothBrush reported about the Russian aviation the Ukrainians are powerless against, it does seem they are facing something too overwhelming.

"President of Latvia, Egils Levits just made a very important statement in Davos in response to Putin’s nuclear sabre rattling: “Russia is not provoked by strength, Russia is provoked by weakness.” This comes from someone sitting right on the front line."

@BillBrowder

as someone reported yesterday:

From UkraineNOW
🔗Billionaire financier George Soros has said that Russia's invasion of Ukraine may have started World War III, so it's important for the West to defeat Russian President Vladimir Putin's troops.

This [pic in Telegram was attached] is the American-made M777 howitzer. It shoots farther, moves faster and is hidden more easily, and it’s what the Ukrainian military has been waiting for.

Three months into the war in Ukraine, the first American heavy artillery — the most lethal weapons the West has provided so far — are now deployed in combat in Ukraine’s east. Their arrival has buoyed Ukraine’s hopes of achieving artillery superiority at least in some frontline areas, a key step toward military victories in a war now fought mostly on flat, open steppe at long ranges.

😢 In Ukraine, 238 children have been killed and 433 injured since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion, human rights ombudsman Lyudmila Denisova said.

But this is not the final figure, because there is no data from the places where the battles are taking place.

@RedToothBrush that Twitter account from Erik Zimerman seems to be somewhat dismissive of the Ukrainian forces, d'you think? I havent been following it closely but it uses some slightly derogatory adjectives.

The information seems very detailed tho! usefully.

Regarding the accounts of appalling sexual murders of children, I suspect they have been written in a spirit of blazing outrage, grief and fury.

Absolutely spot on and so well put.

Well done Canada and much needed.
Hopefully it’s long range and also laser guided artillery they’re sending over.

The Kyiv Independent
@KyivIndependent
⚡️ Canada to send artillery ammunition to Ukraine.

In total, the country purchased 20,000 artillery shells from the U.S., spending about $75 million for NATO-standard ammunition, Defense Minister Anita Anand said on May 24.
10:32 PM · May 24, 2022·Twitter Web App

In terms of info warfare, Russia is creating non-existent Polish towns on Instagram and making flags claiming these imaginary towns support Russia

From The Telegraph:

1. The Kremlin has pocketed a $1.9bn (£1.5bn) windfall from wheat export taxes after blocking Ukraine’s grain exports by sea.

Disruption sparked by Putin’s invasion – combined with hot weather and droughts – has sent global wheat prices up by more than 50pc this year. The crisis is threatening hunger and famine across the globe, but Russia has cashed in on the higher prices and raked in more revenues per tonne to buyers such as Egypt and Turkey. So far this season export taxes have hit $1.9bn, according to data from SovEcon, while a bumper wheat crop is expected next season. In addition to blockading Ukrainian ports, Russia has also been plundering its neighbour’s grain reserves.

1. Russia is ready to provide a humanitarian corridor for vessels carrying food to leave Ukraine, in return for the lifting of some sanctions, the Interfax news agency cited Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko as saying on Wednesday.

"We have repeatedly stated on this point that a solution to the food problem requires a comprehensive approach, including the lifting of sanctions that have been imposed on Russian exports and financial transactions," Rudenko was quoted as saying. "And it also requires the demining by the Ukrainian side of all ports where ships are anchored. Russia is ready to provide the necessary humanitarian passage, which it does every day," he said. Russia and Ukraine accuse each other of planting drifting mines in the Black Sea.

So Russia blockades the port and then uses their illegal blockade as leverage against sanctions, blackmailing the world with the threat of famine. How the fuck do these people sleep at night?

1. Russia has sent "an insane number of fighters and equipment" to take the Luhansk region of the Donbas, the governor has said.

Serhii Haidai warned on Telegram that Kremlin forces were concentrating their attacks on the area in eastern Ukraine, and that Luhansk was in danger of becoming the next Mariupol. "The Russians are advancing in all directions at the same time. They brought over an insane number of fighters and equipment," the governor wrote. "The invaders are killing our cities, destroying everything around." He said Luhansk is becoming "like Mariupol". Luhansk is facing its "most difficult time" in the eight years since separatist fighting erupted there during Russia's incursion of the area in 2014, Mr Haidai added.

That was the worst thing I have ever read, those poor children. I can't believe the behaviour of some of the Russian soldiers, it is vile.

Russia - ‘lift sanctions and we’ll allow food out of Ukraine’

blackmail plain and simple 🤬😡

Between this and the shooting in America I am feeling so depressed about the state of the world and hope we can find a way out of this mess

I feel the same @MagicFox , in January I naively thought that 2022 was going to better than the last two years, I couldn't have been more wrong.

The Kyiv Independent
@KyivIndependent
·
23s
⚡️Belarusian PM confirms his country is supplying weapons to Russia.

Roman Golovchenko said that Belarus and Russia had set up joint programs to work through Western sanctions complicating sales of weapons.

"President of Latvia, Egils Levits just made a very important statement in Davos in response to Putin’s nuclear sabre rattling: “Russia is not provoked by strength, Russia is provoked by weakness.” This comes from someone sitting right on the front line."

Not sure about that statement. It's a soundbite that doesn't make sense.

If Russia is provoked by weakness, then why did they go for Ukraine? Ukraine has never been weak.

@ChardonnaysBeastlyCat

I think he means we shouldn't pussy foot around him because he's using threatening rhetoric re nuclear war etc. he's saying that we need to show strength and not weakness in our response r

I suppose he does mean that, he has not expressed it in a good way. IMO.

I worked as a professional negotiator for 15 years, and I see things in terms of law, and I think this is unhelpful reporting. There are independent reviews going on, there are allegations both sides of atrocities, there is an international lawyer appointed who is undertaking certain probes into war crimes, there are UN recommendations about independent probes in some areas, and there are specific complexities, and until the outcome of all this is established I am not sure this is helpful.

I am really sorry about some of the traumatic experiences people here have had, but aside from this war, this sort of horrific thing is going on on a mass scale and shown on the darkweb daily, and huge numbers access it, and the more people make a noise about it, the more likely it is that it will more on the radar and something will be done. I do also agree from personal experience that there are as many people who are good as there are who do awful things, and all of us consciously doing good in any shape way or form can bring about change, I saw this comment upthread.

Sorry posted too soon. I saw this comment upthread and I agree.

I think he meant that the West's lack of response to the annexation of Crimea in 2014 encouraged Russia to take another bite of the cherry.

And by extension any peace deal now which includes Russia keeping their current gains will encourage a further invasion in a few years, as well as additional aggression elsewhere.