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Ukraine Invasion: Part 26

993 replies

MagicFox · 20/05/2022 09:35

Here we are, on top of our rock

OP posts:
Thread gallery
61
blueshoes · 25/05/2022 22:21

TheABC · 25/05/2022 21:53

The world is getting better.

Absolute poverty and hunger are down, polio is on the verge of extinction, there are effective treatments for river blindness, ebola, AIDs and malaria. Violence (including war) is down by historic standards whilst the number of children being educated beyond primary school has gone up. The hole in the ozone layer is shrinking, it's now cheaper to build renewables than coal stations and the world's first treaty on plastic is happening at light speed.

Compared to a century ago - fuck, even when I was born 40 years ago - the world is a better place. However, our expectations and access to information have also grown accordingly. We would have found out about Bucha 6 months down the line after the war had ended; not days after Russia's withdrawal. Ditto the current situation; it's not the end and I would be amazed if the politicians and diplomats were not working on the weapons supply behind the scenes.

As for America and it's gun violence - well, that can be solved but as I said elsewhere, it needs the same time and attention as the campaign against smoking.

Thank you TheABC

It is a grim day for Ukraine. What you said does make me feel better. There is still hope.

ScrollingLeaves · 25/05/2022 22:33

@PerkingFaintly · Today 19:07
On BBC2 at 23:50 tonight: "Haftar's Russian Mercenaries: Inside the Wagner Group."

Thank you, I shall try to catch up with that tomorrow.

OwlsDance · 25/05/2022 22:43

Very depressing update from Arestovych. The long and short, which we already know, is that they desperately need weapons. Germany apparently deliberately delaying transfer.

In April, UA and RU entered a race - race for weapons and race for more men, respectively. At the moment, UA is losing this race. RU managed to put together about 10-15 fresh BTGs and is throwing them all into Luhansk. Although he said they are grinding them all down, with huge losses, which will bite them in the bum in about 3 months time, when they'll run out of well trained experienced men.

The next month or so, until UA receives more weapons is going to be very difficult.

He said more about European politics, which was very interesting, but I'll post that tomorrow.

TargusEasting · 25/05/2022 22:52

Weapons, weapons, weapons. Of the right sort, in the right place at the right time. Even then it is going to be a slog, but that is manageable while a stalemate is not at all.

The SM optimism will be gradually taken over by a sense of realism which will be reflected in our leaders. A stepped uplift is inevitable if people have their thinking heads on.

blueshoes · 25/05/2022 23:01

OwlsDance · 25/05/2022 22:43

Very depressing update from Arestovych. The long and short, which we already know, is that they desperately need weapons. Germany apparently deliberately delaying transfer.

In April, UA and RU entered a race - race for weapons and race for more men, respectively. At the moment, UA is losing this race. RU managed to put together about 10-15 fresh BTGs and is throwing them all into Luhansk. Although he said they are grinding them all down, with huge losses, which will bite them in the bum in about 3 months time, when they'll run out of well trained experienced men.

The next month or so, until UA receives more weapons is going to be very difficult.

He said more about European politics, which was very interesting, but I'll post that tomorrow.

OwlsDance, that is so depressing. Whose side is Germany on?

I wonder what about all those weapons that are supposed to come from UK, US, France, Denmark and Canada - I am sure there must be more countries I am missing out. Are Ukraine still being trained to use them? Is that where their men are?

RedToothBrush · 25/05/2022 23:11

Ijsbear · 25/05/2022 09:22

@RedToothBrush that Twitter account from Erik Zimerman seems to be somewhat dismissive of the Ukrainian forces, d'you think? I havent been following it closely but it uses some slightly derogatory adjectives.

The information seems very detailed tho! usefully.

I think that particular thread that I reposted was probably a fair reflection, if you look at the map and the reality of where the front line had moved. It didn't give the Ukrainians too many options. I think Ukraine are in the situation in the Donbas at the moment where they have the pick of their poison. There are no good options.

I think the surrender of the soliders of Mariupol is being felt to a degree with this. Its freed up aircrews to drop bombs on the front lines. Mariupol was taking the heat out of the Russian air assault elsewhere.

It is interesting that we've seen more reports of heavy ukrainian losses and how bad the air assaults on the front immediately AFTER the surrender.

Apparently Russians have been telling Ukrainians from the Mariupol area who had gone to Russia, that if they don't return to their home it will be given to someone else. I have heard a story about one family who returned only to find that someone else was living in their home and said it was now theirs. There has been talk of this happening in Kherson region, but not Mariupol. This now seems to be happening there too. Some are wanting to return from Russia to Mariupol, to their homes for this reason. Yes really.

RedToothBrush · 25/05/2022 23:21

Ijsbear · 25/05/2022 16:56

Putin's neck is puffy and his swallowing is odd.

But most of all his chest seems remarkably rigid. His head-movement has no ripple on in his shoulders and chest. It -could- be that he's wearing a bullet proof vest under his coat which has been seen elsewhere recently, specially in the light of the attempted assassination 2 months ago (if that really happened). Maybe the bullet proof vest would have prevented normal movement. But even so his shoulders and torso look odd. HIs head nods seem minimal but he's always been a master of bodylanguage.

His arms and hands lie quiet by his side which is very rare for him in recent clips. Is it definitely his head on his body?

Shoigu looks like a meek shadow.

In summary, if that's really Putin's head on Putin's body he doesn't look well or in fluid control of the situation. But eh, Im not trained in deep fakery!

Thats a man in body armour scared to death of being assassinated.

blueshoes · 26/05/2022 00:32

Apparently Russians have been telling Ukrainians from the Mariupol area who had gone to Russia, that if they don't return to their home it will be given to someone else. I have heard a story about one family who returned only to find that someone else was living in their home and said it was now theirs. There has been talk of this happening in Kherson region, but not Mariupol. This now seems to be happening there too. Some are wanting to return from Russia to Mariupol, to their homes for this reason. Yes really.

This is just despicable how Russia is playing with people's lives.

That aside, I assume these Russians are not those who have been filtered since they are allowed to move freely. Also what homes are there in Mariupol for people to return to. I thought the city is practically leveled.

MagicFox · 26/05/2022 06:50

Thanks @TheABC for your response last night

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 26/05/2022 06:54

Dr Ian Garner AT irgarner
Astonishing. Pravda’s lead article this morning is about the enlistment of Russians over 40. Why? “The need for mature and highly qualified people, who are catastrophically lacking at present.”

Well very true. There is a lack of mature and highly qualified people to run Russia...

ChardonnaysBeastlyCat · 26/05/2022 07:43

Apparently Russians have been telling Ukrainians from the Mariupol area who had gone to Russia, that if they don't return to their home it will be given to someone else. I have heard a story about one family who returned only to find that someone else was living in their home and said it was now theirs. There has been talk of this happening in Kherson region, but not Mariupol. This now seems to be happening there too. Some are wanting to return from Russia to Mariupol, to their homes for this reason. Yes really.

Russia has form for this. They've done it throughout their purges.

RedToothBrush · 26/05/2022 07:53

blueshoes · 26/05/2022 00:32

Apparently Russians have been telling Ukrainians from the Mariupol area who had gone to Russia, that if they don't return to their home it will be given to someone else. I have heard a story about one family who returned only to find that someone else was living in their home and said it was now theirs. There has been talk of this happening in Kherson region, but not Mariupol. This now seems to be happening there too. Some are wanting to return from Russia to Mariupol, to their homes for this reason. Yes really.

This is just despicable how Russia is playing with people's lives.

That aside, I assume these Russians are not those who have been filtered since they are allowed to move freely. Also what homes are there in Mariupol for people to return to. I thought the city is practically leveled.

These are people who have been filtered. Note the Russian authorities are contacting them about property in Mariupol. How do they contact them if they havent been documented by the Russians via filtration? (Source is someone who has been through filtration telling Ukrainian relative in the UK). I think this highlights a planned and systematic bureaucracy.

Part of the problem is that many residents don't actually know what is left in Mariupol for them. It really depends on when they left. Lots don't know if their house is still there. They don't know if their precious and sentimental possessions are still there and retrievable. They don't have full knowledge of the current situation. They want to return precisely to see whats left. Many want to go back, board up windows etc etc. Because its home. Many are staying with relatives in Russia which may not be tenable long term. So what are they supposed to do? Put into context of the images of how quickly Ukrainians have returned to Bucha and Borodyanka after fighting ceased there. There clearly is this desire by many Ukrainians to just get back on with living their life once fighting stops in their vicinity.

Ukrainians with strong Russian family ties from Mariupol may hate what the Russians have done and not want to live under them at this point but their choices are also potentially limited.

There isn't electricity or water. I would imagine there is lots of unexploded ordnance. And something tells me Russia is unlikely to prioritise rectifying this for a while. But not everyone will be fully aware of the scale of this depending on when they left Mariupol though. And they are not necessarily listening to Ukrainian relatives telling them its all gone. (Much to the frustration and concern of Ukrainian relatives as you might imagine)

These people are being told they have to replace documents with Russian ones and they must get a job in Russia. So going back to Mariupol which they know and love kind of makes sense in that context if they don't understand Mariupol isn't there anymore and they don't want to remain in Russia with extended family.

What would you do if you were kipping on your second cousin's sofa, didn't want to settle in Russia and get a job there and you are told 'if you don't claim your home which you've invested in for years we will give it to someone else'. Especially if it was still vaguely standing when you left. Those who left Mariupol later are more likely to have the mentality that they will never return to the city, but many will have left to go to safety on the assumption that they were leaving only temporarily.

Remember: Russia is actively saying they need to return to claim their property. That will give the impression in itself that Mariupol is habitable.

Indeed what surprised me was from what I've been told, is the mere fact some residents who left Mariupol or the surrounding area have been able to return at all somehow. The press have stated that the Ukrainian authorities believe that around 100,000 are still living there somehow amid fears of cholera though, which in itself is somewhat remarkable.

If you compare reports coming out of Kherson about replacing the population in the region with Russians, what is known to have happened in Crimea and what seems to be now happening in Mariupol its a consistent pattern with that though.

The whole thing is mind boogling. There is a void of information which is very much a huge part of the problem. There are clearly many very bewildered displaced Ukrainians now finding themselves scattered still in Ukraine on both sides of the line and from the UK to the extreme end of Russia, who have access to very different views on the situation on the ground.

People are trying to piece together what little bits of information they can gather or are being told in various ways about areas which are under attack or occupation from social media and via word of mouth through friends and family. I think we are seeing a huge amount of the latter in the uk (for obvious reason we aren't Ukrainian) and I think thats something hard to grasp from afar. We have a much more broad concept of the war and whats happening. If you want to know about your neighbourhood and friends/family its a very different idea to try and comprehend.

OwlsDance · 26/05/2022 07:57

Arestovych said something that I've heard before, but I'm not sure if I've heard it from him some time ago, or if he was quoting someone else.

He said Europe doesn't want to live in a world where Russia has lost. They were hoping this war will end quickly, either via diplomatic ways, or Russia coming to its senses and pulling out (ha!) and then it will be business as usual. "Now the European politicians have to get out of their warm beds and do actual politics."

The "Old Europe" (France, Germany, Italy) also doesn't want to live in a world where Ukraine wins. There seems to be this shift of focus from inept older EU countries to more decisive Eastern side of the bloc. The power blanket is being pulled away from them and they don't like it.

I thought the last point was quite interesting. Even going by this thread, how many posters on here started talking about visiting these less "famous" countries as a result of this war? Obviously it's more than just tourism, but there's definitely a shift.

OwlsDance · 26/05/2022 08:06

He also said UA knocked down another plane. The pilot was over 65. This really demonstrates they are very short on qualified pilots.

Russia also has its own struggles with equipment. They are starting to ration their missiles.

OwlsDance · 26/05/2022 08:10

He also talked about the divide within the Ukraine. People are getting tired of the war. They are looking for someone to blame. Armed forces are exhausted, the initial bravado is starting to wear off. Loss of Severodonetsk will be a major blow to morale. Russia will try to capitalise on that.

Which is why they need weapons yesterday.

Ok, I'll stop now. It was very depressing to listen.

notimagain · 26/05/2022 08:35

@TargusEasting

Good post, especially

"Weapons, weapons, weapons. Of the right sort, in the right place at the right time. Even then it is going to be a slog, but that is manageable while a stalemate is not at all"

Hopefully any idea that wars can be fought by cyber experts in T-shirts operating a drone from GCHQ have been put to rest. This war has ended up as grim and down in the dirt as many others.

@blueshoes

"I wonder what about all those weapons that are supposed to come from UK, US, France, Denmark and Canada - I am sure there must be more countries I am missing out."

Firstly personally I'm not sure deliveries or even promises of deliveries should be broadcast to the world....I'd be quite happy not knowing exactly who is delivering exactly what...

Anyhow to address the point:

The following isn't exhaustive but in the beginning we had supplies Javelin (US) and NLAW (UKish) which helped hold the line against the (rather oddly used) Russian armour....French have supplied Milan (an older but still effective anti-tank weapon).

There are reports from Ukrainian sources that US supplied M177 and French supplied Caesar long range artillery units are right now in theatre with the Ukrainian army..

You've mentioned Denmark - promise of Harpoon, but with all this kit you can't get round training, logistics etc....

Maybe it's also worth mentioning that you can't expect the west to quickly if ever supply thousands of pieces of highish end war fighting machines. The States aside most countries might only have one or two hundred self propelled guns or tanks in total, in their inventory...so how far do they denude themselves?

Germany is a case in point, yes their politicians haven't starred but the German Bundeswehr (Armed Forces) have been underfunded for years is in a pretty parlous state, I'm not sure they're realistically in a position to release much of the equipment they currently hold.

In conclusion I think their needs to be some expectation management. We probably don't know what has really been promised, hopefully thousands of rounds of ammunition, but I wouldn't expect to see the Ukrainians being supplied with thousands of tanks or self propelled artillery pieces.

OwlsDance · 26/05/2022 08:57

Ukraine criticising Germany re weapon delivery

t.co/giDldA20tv

Ukraine Invasion: Part 26
TheCountessofFitzdotterel · 26/05/2022 09:06

OwlsDance · 26/05/2022 07:57

Arestovych said something that I've heard before, but I'm not sure if I've heard it from him some time ago, or if he was quoting someone else.

He said Europe doesn't want to live in a world where Russia has lost. They were hoping this war will end quickly, either via diplomatic ways, or Russia coming to its senses and pulling out (ha!) and then it will be business as usual. "Now the European politicians have to get out of their warm beds and do actual politics."

The "Old Europe" (France, Germany, Italy) also doesn't want to live in a world where Ukraine wins. There seems to be this shift of focus from inept older EU countries to more decisive Eastern side of the bloc. The power blanket is being pulled away from them and they don't like it.

I thought the last point was quite interesting. Even going by this thread, how many posters on here started talking about visiting these less "famous" countries as a result of this war? Obviously it's more than just tourism, but there's definitely a shift.

I am not sure I wholly understand this.
I mean, I get that power shifts in Europe could be uncomfortable for France and Germany, but surely it is in the interests of everyone in the bloc if all parts of it are thriving? And if Russia wins it’s not going to stop trying to build its empire, and it can’t benefit Europe to have constant warfare at its fringes, even if Russia doesn’t get as far as Germany.

Alexandra2001 · 26/05/2022 09:29

Ukraine is facing one of the worlds largest militaries, with the ability to manufacture unlimited amounts of "dumb" ordinance, the weapons all of us are sending or promising too are no where near enough.

The US has sent 90 howitzers, the UK has sent none but even 90 is a trifling amount, France has sent or will send 13 units.

The brimstones number in the few 100s, have and will make little difference, though the british press would have you believe they will send the RTussian army back to Moscow.

The reality is the west simply do not have the spare weapons lying around to send and as usual in Europes defence, we are dependent on what the USA will do.

I've long thought the West's involvement is half hearted e.g oil and gas, we might get 5% of gas from Russia but 25% of refined oil products sold here come from Russia and still do.... billions sent weekly to Moscow from ALL of Europe, beating up of France or Germany is rather pointless.

The "Old Europe" (France, Germany, Italy) also doesn't want to live in a world where Ukraine wins. There seems to be this shift of focus from inept older EU countries to more decisive Eastern side of the bloc. The power blanket is being pulled away from them and they don't like it

Ridiculous statement, laced with British exceptionalism, without a shred of evidence, the "old Europe" very much includes the UK, which until very recently, wholehearted supported Russia and engagement.

ScrollingLeaves · 26/05/2022 09:34

Zelensky referring to that New York Times article someone posted on here last week which said that Ukraine would need to be realistic, and the US realistic about what they promise Ukraine, and give up the east and Crimea; and to what Kissinger said in Davos along these lines, that Ukraine should cede everything from before February to Russia within the next two months, that to do anything else would be disastrous - not defence of Ukraine but a war against Russia itself.

"It seems that Mr Kissinger's calendar is not 2022, but 1938, and he thought he was talking to an audience not in Davos, but in Munich of that time," Mr Zelensky said in his nightly video address on Wednesday.

"Perhaps The New York Times in 1938 also wrote something similar. But now, let me remind you, it is 2022.

"Those who advise Ukraine to give something to Russia, these 'great geopolitical figures', never see ordinary people, ordinary Ukrainians, millions living on the territory they are proposing to exchange for an illusory peace."

from The Telegraph:
www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/05/26/ukraine-news-latest-russia-war-vladimir-putin-severodonetsk/

RedToothBrush · 26/05/2022 09:53

Alexandra2001 · 26/05/2022 09:29

Ukraine is facing one of the worlds largest militaries, with the ability to manufacture unlimited amounts of "dumb" ordinance, the weapons all of us are sending or promising too are no where near enough.

The US has sent 90 howitzers, the UK has sent none but even 90 is a trifling amount, France has sent or will send 13 units.

The brimstones number in the few 100s, have and will make little difference, though the british press would have you believe they will send the RTussian army back to Moscow.

The reality is the west simply do not have the spare weapons lying around to send and as usual in Europes defence, we are dependent on what the USA will do.

I've long thought the West's involvement is half hearted e.g oil and gas, we might get 5% of gas from Russia but 25% of refined oil products sold here come from Russia and still do.... billions sent weekly to Moscow from ALL of Europe, beating up of France or Germany is rather pointless.

The "Old Europe" (France, Germany, Italy) also doesn't want to live in a world where Ukraine wins. There seems to be this shift of focus from inept older EU countries to more decisive Eastern side of the bloc. The power blanket is being pulled away from them and they don't like it

Ridiculous statement, laced with British exceptionalism, without a shred of evidence, the "old Europe" very much includes the UK, which until very recently, wholehearted supported Russia and engagement.

Tbh i think there is a sitting up and paying attention to the Baltics and Poland going on in London and Washington which wasn't going on before.

That in itself is new. Previously they were being dismissed as unimportant. Now they are much harder to ignore in terms of what they have to say in international diplomacy.

This does change the dynamics in Europe and within the EU.

I don't think there is British exceptionalism in that. Indeed I think in a lot of ways you can ignore the UK for certain conversations on this and just still draw the samr conclusion when it comes to bilateral relations between other countries.

Ironically the UK wasn't signed up to defending Sweden and Finland before. Nor was the US. The EU was. Thats a fundamental shift in its own right and whilst its with a view to them formally joining NATO its also outside of that framework as a stop gap too.

To say its not changing power balances in europe and thats the thinking of the UK alone really is ignoring a lot. I think we over state the UKs role internationally, but i also think its wrong to say nothing has changed too.

Its definitely pulling power eastward within Europe. Poland asking for a Nato base when traditionally that was Germany role, I think says a significant amount.

RedToothBrush · 26/05/2022 09:55

To put it bluntly, the sound of foot dragging in Berlin will not make Washington happy...

AppleandRhubarbTart · 26/05/2022 10:12

I don't think there is British exceptionalism in that. Indeed I think in a lot of ways you can ignore the UK for certain conversations on this and just still draw the samr conclusion when it comes to bilateral relations between other countries.

Exactly. If anything that argument that the role of the UK is being overstated is in itself not paying enough attention to European countries other than the UK who have supported Ukraine.

notimagain · 26/05/2022 10:18

RedToothBrush · 26/05/2022 09:55

To put it bluntly, the sound of foot dragging in Berlin will not make Washington happy...

What's new?

Under various administrations/various defence ministers they've underfunded and possibly mismanaged their defence procurement for years...the locker is pretty empty and they haven't got much to give.

www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-05-25/tanks-but-no-ammo-germanys-ukraine-pledges-show-military-muddle