Ukraine Invasion: Part 26

[MagicFox]

Here we are, on top of our rock

@Alexandra2001 I think it's wrong to demonise the Russian people - something like 40% of them live in poverty. What chances do you think they have in life? They're treated as cannon fodder by the leadership for starters.

Reading Soros’ statement I very much think he has a point about the climate catastrophe taking a back seat to the war and that being a potential for civilisation ending. What I’m less clear on, and don’t actually agree with him on, is this being the start of WWIII.

Reliance on fossil fuels = mutually assured distraction - so true!

Hungarian, rather than Greek.

Destruction obviously 🙄

I believe the biggest challenge UA are facing right now over there is that they're not getting weapons fast enough... ☹️

The far left hate him too and seen as a globalist

Hungarian is he? oops! :)

ISW: “‘more Russians supportive of the Kremlin and the Russian invasion of Ukraine are beginning to criticize the Kremlin openly,’ including military bloggers and an assembly of military veterans.”

@TheWeek:

t.co/rj3tGA4Sgp

That same Wikipedia article says this about his background:

George Soros[a] HonFBA (born György Schwartz, August 12, 1930) is a Hungarian-born American[b] businessman and philanthropist. As of March 2021, he had a net worth of US$8.6 billion, having donated more than $32 billion to the Open Society Foundations,
of which $15 billion have already been distributed, representing 64% of his original fortune. Forbes called him the "most generous giver" (in terms of percentage of net worth).

Born in Budapest to a non-observant Jewish family, Soros survived the Nazi occupation of Hungary and moved to the United Kingdom in 1947. He studied at the London School of Economics and was awarded a BSc in philosophy in 1951, and then a Master of Science degree, also in philosophy, in 1954.

Soros began his business career by taking various jobs at merchant banks in the United Kingdom and then the United States, before starting his first hedge fund"

Not sure if anyone has already come across this? I'd not heard that this had happened.

www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/05/23/assassins-tried-kill-putin-two-months-ago/

If my previous link is hidden behind a paywall then the dreaded Daily Mail had pretty much copy and pasted released a similar story.

I remember there was a George Soros Foundation office in Kyiv in the early 90’s…

@Ijsbear Thanks, no wonder some of the US far right are in agreement with him. It's scary that the world seems to be going backwards towards intolerance.

Forgot to quote, my last message was about Putin's homophobia.

Have been without my phone for a couple of hours and was having withdrawal symptoms! Thanks to all those who responded to my qs. Soras sounds interesting and clearly has skin in the game

@Ijsbear Thanks for the point about Orban and the extension of the covid emergency state. Sounds like power play and less alarming than it sounded

Does anyone know about some Twitter posts with videos by someone (anti Biden probably pro Putin) one saying Zelensky had arrested more Ukrainian deserters, another showing a group of Ukrainian soldiers, apparently a mutiny, saying they refuse to go on any combat missions, they have no food, and they’ve never held guns before? In this you see one soldier reading something out while the others silently sit round him,

Are they most likely fake?

that was IGotJelly actually magic :) |

I haven't seen those posts myself tho there are rumours of some Ukrainian soldiers going short of gear and supplies. Though from what we are told here it sounds like those might be Russian soldiers dressed up in Ukrainian uniforms!

That tweet has disappeared, there is one of soldiers from Donetsk saying they will not fight in Luhansk as it's nothing to do with them

I can’t see it any more either. Tim Anderson has put up one of a Ukrainian soldier holding his passport giving what feel sure is an enforced speech. It doesn’t sound natural. He says he saw Ukrainian soldiers shoot evacuating civilians, and he urges others to stop fighting.

Among Ukraine tweets there is a horrific report of rapes in Kherson.

www.ft.com/content/c60027d7-f4c4-4672-92ac-ce41e6c1c831

A bit about Hungary’s state of emergency.

Sorry, thanks @Igotjelly for the info :-)

I saw a very interesting article yesterday about the fact that comparing Putin to Hitler is wrong, in that they are very different characters (I think the main point was that Hitler was essentially a risk taker and that Putin is inherently risk averse).

In other news Frank Gardner suggesting on Ukrainecast that the Russian news reader who held up that poster should be compared to the man who stood in front of the tank in Tiananmen square.

The important town of Svitlodarsk has been taken by the Russians after the Ukrainians tactically withdrew from it.

Erik Zimerman AT zimermanerik
Speaking of the difficulty of blowing up dams (& bridges on top of them) & whether Ukraine would cause such flooding & havoc on its own settlements, I guess we have the answer. Ukrainian forces attempted to blow up the Vuhlehirske dam on the Luhan / Lugan river.

From the southeast, these cities were protected with entrenchments such as these two facing the RU forces (& these are just what existed before the war). This important front & cities could be taken by RU forces by an advance on their rear to cut the E40 highway, the only supply route. This became possible with the taking of Popasna and subsequently of Troitske. As we have discussed before, while trying to outflank or encircle it is imperative to continue the pressure from the main frontal line. That way the enemy has the choice of standing his ground firmly, and being encircled, or attempt to reposition or withdraw and see the main front collapse. This is what we are seeing in this case. The UA forces around Svitlodarsk are in no mood for being the protagonists in Azovstal 2.0 and started to withdraw.

This has weakened the front and so Myronivskyi was captured, and RU forces (reportedly including Wagner units) are now fighting in Luganske. The withdrawing UA units blew a bridge across the Luhan river & as we have seen tried to blow the dam as well. The RU advance is not a frontal attack but not exactly from the rear either.

These forces that had been fighting in Popasna, rather than advancing behind the cities along the fortified ridge line, or along the railway line a bit further north (dominated by the entrenched ridge line) advanced towards NE flank, on the south side of the Luhan river. This was possible by the capture of Troitske which itself was possible due to the capture of Popasna. An attack from this flank quickly started the UA withdrawal. It remains to be seen if UA forces completely left Svitlodarsk, but if so RU forces will be able to move NW along the main highway (supported by a pincer from the NE from Popasna along the ridge or railway). From here RU forces will be able to move west as we discussed in the earlier thread & cut off the T0513 main road. With this & the E40 (M03) cut off, this would precipitate the collapse of the northern Horlivka front. Alternatively or in parallel RU forces could move north towards the T-054 main road & cut off the strong entrenchments that other RU forces are facing directly west of Popasna around Plypchatyne, linking up with the airborne effort around Soledar & further contributing to the surrounding of or assault on Bakhmut. The UA (or the UA forces) made the correct choice here (perhaps not in trying to blow up a dam), as painful as the loss of these important small cities will be for its pride, it's nothing compared to their loss plus another mass surrender. The Svitlodarsk front was perfect-made for an encirclement, due to the large bodies of water, fed by one main road. Cutting them off and surrounding them completely was only a matter of a few more days.

If they did not all withdraw, which is the first time we see this happening in the mature phase of the war, then we may yet see an encirclement and surrender here as well.

Hopefully these two maps explain the above visually a bit better.

Key Takeaways

Russian forces have likely abandoned efforts to encircle large Ukrainian formations in eastern Ukraine and are instead attempting to secure smaller encirclements and focus on Severodonetsk.

This change in the Russian approach is enabling gradual advances—but at the cost of abandoning several intended lines of advance and abandoning the Kremlin’s intended deep encirclement of Ukrainian forces in eastern Ukraine.

Ukrainian forces are likely conducting a controlled withdrawal southwest of Popasna near Bakhmut to protect Ukrainian supply lines against Russian offensives in the southeast of Bakhmut.

Russian occupation authorities in Mariupol announced that they will hold war crimes trials against Ukrainian soldiers in Mariupol in a likely effort to strengthen judicial control of the city and support false Kremlin narratives of Ukrainian crimes.

Russian forces are attempting to retake Ternova in northern Kharkiv Oblast and seek to stabilize defensive positions near the Russian border against the Ukrainian counteroffensive.

Russian forces are forming reserves and deploying S-400 missile systems in northwest Crimea to reinforce the southern axis.

Several DNR servicemen openly released a video appeal to DNR leader Denis Pushilin stating they have been forced into combat operations without proper support, indicating increasing demoralization among Russian and proxy forces.

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The Kyiv Independent, [25/05/2022 00:34]
⚡️Zelensky: 'Great deal of time and extraordinary strength required to thwart Russia’s advantage in weapons and equipment.'
President Zelensky said in his daily address that Russia has thrown “all the strength it has left” into attacking Donbas.
Zelensky also said intercepted conversations of Russian troops make it clear “they are well-aware this war does not make sense, and that strategically their army has no chance.”

⚡️US ends key waiver on Russian debt payments.

⚡️Lithuania ready to treat wounded Ukrainian service members.

⚡️Ukraine's Military: up to 180 Russian troops killed, 19 pieces of equipment destroyed in east on May 24. [in context, Ukraine is losing about 100 a day]

⚡️NGO: 90% of pharmacies closed in Kherson Oblast, drug prices rise 3-5 times.

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Ukraine NOW [English], [25/05/2022 07:13]
⚡️Operational summary of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

▪️The Russian command, in connection with significant losses in manpower, is forming reserve units from the Southern Military District, the General Staff reports.

▪️Stubborn battles with the support of Russian artillery and aviation are going on in the Luhansk and Donetsk directions. During the day, the Armed Forces of Ukraine repelled 9 enemy attacks in these areas.

▪️In the Kharkiv region, Russian invaders are trying to delay the advance of Ukrainian forces to the north of the region. They are preparing to resume the offensive in the direction of Sloviansk.

❕The Ukrainian military from Azovstal are being held in "satisfactory" conditions, said the wife of the commander of the Azov Regiment, Kateryna Prokopenko, reports The Guardian. The man managed to contact her, but she does not know if he could speak freely.