Ukraine Invasion: Part 25

[MagicFox]

Hi all, another thread for supporting and sharing

You can get much more propaganda value out of them alive with the opportunity for long drawn out show trials, as well as the possibility of using them as bargaining chips.

@OwlsDance

He also said something about RUS shooting at Israel plane (I'm assuming military), I'm not sure where, and Israel is really pissed off.

Syria..two or three days ago...maybe....

Quality coverage of this in general is probably indicated by this Newsweek report:

Headline: "Russia Opens Fire On Israeli Jets Over Syria—Report"

First para: "Russian forces may have opened fire at Israel's jets in Syria, according to a report."

According to lots of other conflicting reports in MSM various: Russian Forces and /or Syria Forces needing Russian approval may have locked their radars up to Israeli aircraft/may have fired unknown number of S-300 Surface to Air Missiles at Israeli aircraft.....

www.newsweek.com/russia-opens-fire-israel-israeli-jets-syria-war-ukraine-1707187

scrollingleaves TL/DR means "too long, didn't read"

ISW Key Takeaways

The Ukrainian military command ordered the remaining defenders of Azovstal to surrender, likely conditionally, in hopes of returning them to Ukraine as part of yet-to-be-negotiated prisoner exchanges.

The announcement of the likely conditional surrender generated outrage in the Russian information space and demands in the Russian Duma for laws prohibiting exchanging the surrendered defenders of Azovstal.

Russian forces continued to make limited advances in Donbas, primarily focused on setting conditions for the Battle of Severodonetsk.

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OSINT Aggregator
@AggregateOsint
·
5m
#Kharkiv Axis - #Ukrainian troops have bridged the Donets River in 2 locations, moved a large assault force across the river and attacked #Russian forces 90km NE of Kharkiv along critical #RUAF supply lines. #UAF may have seized the town of Zarichne and are still attacking NE.

#Russian leadership is undoubtedly moving troops into the area to counterattack this surprise assault by #Ukraine. If #UAF can capture #Vovchansk they may be able to establish a permanent bridgehead on the E side of the Donets River and use it to attack #RUAF to the S.

These new developments could jeopardize #Russian plans in the #Donbas as #Russia is now reacting to #Ukrainian attacks. This news was announced by the Head of the Kharkiv Regional State Administration Oleg Sinegubov. Sources: t.me/stranaua/42609,

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from UkraineNOW:

🇺🇸 The United States and allies are trying to develop routes for the export of vital grain supplies from Ukraine.

Re: Azovtstal: ❕The President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky stated that "the most influential international mediators" are involved in the process.

The British Queen opened a new railway line wearing Yellow with a bit of blue. [Given the Queen, this is an open declaration of support for Ukr! and not the first]

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Kyiv Independent:

⚡️Canada plans to ban Putin and 1,000 members of Russian government from entering country.

⚡️US to launch program documenting open-source evidence of Russian war crimes.

The Kyiv Independent, [18/05/2022 00:36]
⚡️Der Spiegel: Deutsche Bahn helps export Ukrainian grain.

Deutsche Bahn, Germany’s national railway company, plans to transport significant quantities of Ukrainian agricultural products to ports on the North and Adriatic Seas, German Federal Transport Minister Volker Wissing stated, as reported by Der Spiegel.

Two to three trains per day have already begun transporting Ukrainian grain to Western Europe through Poland.

The Kyiv Independent, [18/05/2022 01:59]
⚡️Macron: European Council to consider Ukraine’s application for EU membership in June.

⚡️Ukraine's Military: High-ranking Russian military officials killed by Melitopol guerrillas. (Have seen other reports of this; very few killed, but high ranking)

⚡️Ukrainian forces destroy two Russian ammunition depots in Kherson Oblast.

Ukraine’s Operational Command South said the two ammunition warehouses destroyed on May 17 were located near Pyatihatok and Stepanovka in Kherson Oblast.

It also reported that fighting continues on the line of contact in Mykolaiv and Kherson oblasts where Russian troops are trying to gain a foothold and continue shelling the positions of Ukraine’s Armed Forces with mortars and artillery. [I think there is a slow beginning of thoughts about Kherson and how to free it starting?]

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Ukranian shelling Hits Russian Border Village, Sugar Refinery

www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/05/18/shelling-hits-russian-border-village-sugar-refinery-a77711 [It's a real problem what to do about artillery. If they attack the artillery on the other side of the border of Russia, it's risking inflaming things. But they have to take the artillery out. Tricky one]

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www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3485874-mariupol-defenders-inflict-costly-personnel-losses-amongst-russian-forces-british-intel-report.html

"Despite Russian forces having encircled Mariupol for over ten weeks, staunch Ukrainian resistance delayed Russia’s ability to gain full control over the city. This frustrated its early attempts to capture a key city and inflicted costly personnel losses amongst Russian forces," the UK’s Ministry of Defence posted.

As noted, in attempting to overcome Ukrainian resistance, Russia had made significant use of “auxiliary personnel”, including several thousand Chechen fighters primarily concentrated in Mariupol and Luhansk sectors. "The combat deployment of such disparate personnel demonstrates Russia's significant resourcing problems in Ukraine and is likely contributing to a disunited command which continues to hamper Russia's operations," the report reads.

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Russian troops refuse to assault Bilohorivka and cross the Siversky Donets River in Luhansk region. Head of the Luhansk Regional Military Administration Serhiy Haidai posted on Telegram, Ukrinform reports. [The article seems rather biased though, but it does indicate morale problems]

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Early rumour that the Russian elections in September may be cancelled, possibly:

meduza.io/en/feature/2022/05/17/we-re-flying-blind-now

(the most extraordinary argument in the article was the quoted pov that "we need to keep the elections so that we can keep the election strategists in work so they don't lose out".

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@blueshoes

In this invasion it seems really that they are just brave fighters with their personal beliefs, whatever they are, not relevant as such.

Problem is (as MMBaranova has rightly pointed out) Azov's early history and some of it's insignia has allowed the Russian spin/PR machine to try and make comparisons between them and the Waffen SS...and that sure as heck will hit a nerve with many Russians.

The SS were also certainly regarded by many as brave and they most certainly had their personal beliefs, but probably not beliefs many if any here would subscribe to...

.

Phillips P OBrien AT PhillipsPObrien
Really interesting speech given by Ukrainian defense minister AT oleksiireznikov yesterday to EU Defense ministers. A vision of how Ukraine thinks the war will go this summer. Russia will continue quiet mobilisation and Ukraine will try and waste them away.

First, says early on that Russia can send up to 55 more BTGs to Ukraine by mid July. That’s quite alot considering Russia attacked with 130 and that was supposedly 75% or Russia’s striking force.

If right, the Ukrainians are expecting a pretty serious attempt by Russia to create new BTGs and basically through everything into the fight. Russians look to be trying to dig in in the south.

What does Ukraine want? Basically to start preparing forces for a staged war. Talks about creating units for different time frames. This will require Ukrainian troops to be trained in different capabilities. IOW, this summer they see happening in distinct periods.

What’s the most pressing time frame? Here is some interesting stress. They no longer want to talk so much about weapons but about fully equipped and trained units. And they really want fully ‘organic’ ranged weapons units (including counter battery, UAV, air defense, etc)

Basically protected, effective artillery and MLRS units to try and wear down the Russians dug in their positions. Think we can see why the Ukrainians want HIMARS. Basically the summer’s main phase, will be to hammer at the Russians from range.

One other thing worth noting, confirmation of Russian reluctance to fly much over Ukrainian air space. Many Russian sorties stay far back and launch cruise missiles.

So Ukrainians expecting a hard summer of attritional fighting. Even though Putin was too scared of his own people to call for mobilization, the Ukrainians see the Russians trying to mobilise on the quiet and basically through everything they can (quietly) into Ukraine.

Ukrainian plans are to upgrade the quality and capabilities of its range weapons units to basically attrit down these forces first and foremost. Sounds like no large scale attacks (smart) until the new Russian forces are worn out.

Also some confirmation of why the Ukrainians view late August as perhaps the moment when Russian forces in Ukraine will reach their crisis. If Ukraine can deploy effective range capacity, that will mean the Russians will suffer bombardment for months.

All in all, this speech gives a pretty clear vision of how the Ukrainians see the war developing this summer and what they need to fight it.

https://www.mil.gov.ua/en/news/2022/05/17/oleksii-reznikov-at-the-eu-foreign-affairs-council-on-the-level-of-defense-ministers-with-the-participation-of-the-nato-secretary-general/

Thanks, I thought it was something along those lines!

OSINT Aggregator
@AggregateOsint
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55m
#Lyman Update - The situation around #Lyman is rapidly deteriorating for #Ukrainian troops. Today, #Russia captured Novoselivka to the NW and may have captured Yarova. Lyman is now surrounded on three sides with only destroyed bridges over the Donets on the 4th side.

OSINT Aggregator
@AggregateOsint
·
1h
#Donetsk Axis - #Russian forces have started to make some breakthroughs N of #Donetsk. #RUAF captured the town of Novoselivka Druha after heavy fighting with #Ukrainian troops. The capture of this town will allow #Russia to advance and attempt to encircle #Avdiivka.

[So, there are some gains and some losses. Various observers will tell you that the turning point will come in June, July or August - pinning it down then eh?]

OSINTdefender
@sentdefender
·
6h
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense has Officially Announced the end of Combat Operations in the Coastal City of Mariupol due to the remaining Military/Para-Military Forces in the City surrendering to Russian Forces earlier today, Mariupol is now fully under Russian Control.

A few points on the above. Firstly about how these Russians are going to be trained minimally and this makes them extremely ineffective and likely to be cannon founder (there was a thread about this the other day, i think by Trent Telenko which I posted)

Trent Telenko also posted a lengthy thread about the difference between 155mm and the soviet era ones that the Ukrainian had been using and the cluster bomb munitions that the Russians used.

The long and short of it is that the munitions the Ukrainians and Russians had been using are old technology. The Ukrainians munitions are the oldest, and what happens was technology moved on to try and develop weapons that would make trenches less safe because the munitions developed would cover a larger area. Cluster bombs were the first step in that advance but are now considered old hat / illegal so have fallen out of favour by the West. The US instead developed these new 155mm ammunitions which have a different 'splatter pattern' when they explode which makes them more lethal. They can basically get down into the trenches better and are capable of penetrating most things. (Concrete excepted though a few direct hits may lead to structural failure) This is coupled with the superiour accuracy and the use of loitering drones.

This means that the Russians digging in hastily at this point leaves them more vulnerable than the Ukrainians have been. The Ukrainians have prepared for war for a significant amount of time, and have proper fortifications in some (but not all) areas. They have better accuracy, (hopefully) better trained soliders and potentially longer range missiles and more deadly ammunition.

A war of attrition over the summer is a grim. Particularly for civilians in occupied areas. But the Ukrainians SHOULD sustain significantly less casualties and Russia should be worn down.

This is the first government supported assessment of timescales in the war by the Ukrainians too which is interesting.

@Ijsbear

So, there are some gains and some losses. Various observers will tell you that the turning point will come in June, July or August - pinning it down then eh?

Very true....those with access to the proper intelligence might have a bit of a clue but they are not publishing on the interblah or twitter... and even for them it's a best guess....

funnily enough I hit Post after trawling to collect info, then started reading RedToothBrush's posts which I hadn't seen before. If the Ukr govt are giving some sort of timescale now, that's a straw in the wind.

Ugh, I do hope that China doesn't weigh in sending equipment to Russia.

MagicFox · 18/05/2022 06:51
I'm seeing lots of debate about this issue, it's interesting. I think I agree with L Freedman that we wait until we get there but perhaps it is an discussion that needs to happen.

"If Russia's offensive totally collapsed and Kyiv said "and now, onto Crimea!", what would we say?"

twitter.com/brunotertrais/status/1526634292813627392?s=21&t=C1bTOqHQzW11jM_Y9NRhYg

I think this rhetoric is part of a push to get the west ready to pull back from helping Ukraine as soon as a state is reached where Putin is willing to settle with the gains they have.

Then Russia will have such a brand around the. east and south of Ukraine that they’ll control the Black Sea, and vast amounts of Ukrainian natural resources.

They could then complete their ownership of the Black Sea by gaining Odesa at a later point.

2nd attempt to post losses

What will happen to the surrendered Azov defenders? If I was Putin, which I’m not, but we might as well have some Wednesday morning role play, I would first of all keep things at arms length and let the puppet statelet DNR deal with it first.

Then I’d carefully work out who I had captured, separating them into Azov and Marines plus others. The latter would be held with a view to eventual prisoner exchange. I wouldn’t be in a hurry as their exchange might generate too much sympathy in Ukraine. Azov members I would work on to try to get confessions or Nazi-ish back stories. Then if Ukraine continued with war crime trials of captured Russians, I’d set up some matching show trials. That’s just how Me Putin would work, not Putin Putin who may well be busy micro-managing elsewhere.

The new Russian Defence Ministry statement includes this according to the Guardian:

‘…it has been requested by the investigative committee of Russia to provide information on “the illegal actions of Ukrainian armed formations related to the use of civilian objects for military purposes’.

… ‘the Azov Battalion used the buildings of kindergartens and schools to equip barracks’ and that ‘members of the ‘Aidar’ battalion [ah the Russians have found them in their reformed guise?] also equip firing positions in places not intended for this, creating a real danger to the civilian population’.

....

I have a lot of work to do today. Yes, the real world of work exists. I'll try to make sense of what is happening later today.

‘the Azov Battalion used the buildings of kindergartens and schools to equip barracks’ and that ‘members of the ‘Aidar’ battalion [ah the Russians have found them in their reformed guise?] also equip firing positions in places not intended for this, creating a real danger to the civilian population’.

Crafty *..... if they can "prove" that was done it provides some sort excuse for the Russians hitting schools, hospitals etc in built up areas......

loacblog.com/loac-basics/4-basic-principles/

Tbh from a couple of things I saw on Telegram and wish I hadn't, there are at least a few war crimes going on on the Ukrainian side.

But they are massively outweighed by the Russian ones.

Soldiers are people, some people are awful and a few will commit appalling crimes. Plus the Ukrainians will be under huge emotional stress as it's their own families and towns and country that's being devastated.

I don't believe that Russia needs any real evidence of Ukr war crimes. It will make them up anyway, just as it's made up so many other lies (this is the first time ever that I've truly seen a direct RL situation that can be called Orwellian). But I also don't believe that no war crimes have been committed by Ukr, even if the Russians have committed far more.

@RedToothBrush Your posts this morning have been well received by me, thank you. What Reznikov has been my own assessment of where this is heading. He has consistently called this right from the start - a very clever man.

Russian morale is the Achilles Heel, but the skin is thick so it will take time. There are going to be some horrid fighting conditions and much destruction (not sure why the twitter post did not mention artillery that closes the ground up).
There will be quiet industrial / military mobilisation - just surprised Putin did not announce this on 9 May. August might be too early, but Reznikov is normally right.

@Ijsbear I do not think China will get involved, but it is a risk. Maybe after the war. The easiest path is to bide their time, wait for Russia to degrade militarily, economically and industrially. Europe will pick up the pieces economically for Ukraine - China has lost out there but will gain some power over Russia. Rebuilding Ukraine will tie Europe up economically, but this will be softened by Ukraine's natural resources which will be used to pay for it. War is money now (and vice versa). China can exploit its Silk Road and make gains in other autocracies and dictatorships across SEA and into Africa. The US will need to think about what it does but will probably want to have better ties with South American countries as well as Europe. Both China and the US will look upwards to space and Australia will prove vital in this. Maybe Europe gets canny there too. The UN will need to rethink itself.

This is the next 50 years or so. Before then the Arctic sea ice will have disappeared completely and if we are still using fossil fuels by then Russia, Canada, US and Scandinavia will have things to consider. Most of the world's rainforest IIRC is in countries run by dictatorships or serially corrupt governments. Maybe that is an area of concern in future and wars will be over forests and water.

I agree. People do horrible things to each other.

One factor that could be exploited here is war crimes trials on an international stage - not internally. That would protect POWs. But Russia may plough its own furrow as you say.

A lot to consider there Targus specially about the future development of the world's alliances and space as well. And the environment :/

Wars over water have been talked about for a long time now. If there are wars over forests, I could imagine them getting destroyed in the process and damaging everyone.

Well that's utterly depressing to think about.

Finland and Sweden have delivered their applications now, at the same time like good brothers. Looks like Erdogan wants not just the Kurdish issue sorted but also to be allowed to purchase certain fighter jets that were restricted because of Turkey's purchase of Russia stuff previously. Probably throwing out a lot of demands and hoping someone will agree to one of them.

You can get much more propaganda value out of them alive with the opportunity for long drawn out show trials, as well as the possibility of using them as bargaining chips.

This is so true, but on the up side those calling for execution will be ignored as the men of the Azov battalion are a valuable negotiating tool for the Russians.

Also from the article ref Russian Elections you linked to Ijsbear:

Another source cited other reasons to stay the course:
“Canceling the elections now would acknowledge that Russia is facing real difficulties, that the sanctions are severe, and that the ‘[special] operation’ might not go according to plan. They’re not saying any of this yet [officially], so what would the reason be for canceling the elections? Also, there’s no need to fear the voting results because election commissions can now produce any result desired. [Real] competitors to Putin’s candidates simply won’t be nominated in these conditions.”

Honestly you couldn't make this shit up, the Russian people need to wake up and smell the coffee corruptness.

Looks like Erdogan wants not just the Kurdish issue sorted but also to be allowed to purchase certain fighter jets that were restricted because of Turkey's purchase of Russia stuff previously.

Erdogan wants the F-35 which has of low observability ( "sleathish") features which are very sensitive from an intelligence/technology POV .

He also wants to carry on operating Russian SAMS (specifically the S-400s) which were designed specifically beat the low observability features of that same airframe...

The potential for technology/intelligence leakage back to the Russians is pretty massive which is why Turkey got kicked out of the F-35 program in the first place.

Russia just got a massive bargining chip for if the war goes really badly. The Ukrainians can't abandon the Azov after everything they've done.

THIS not nukes is probably the biggest leverage they have now in truth.

I agree, and especially given any risk to them is less likely to be a bluff than all the nuke rhetoric.