Ukraine Invasion: Part 25

[MagicFox]

Hi all, another thread for supporting and sharing

A bit ominous yes, a little unsettling but that may be my hangover talking.

Informative article

"Graphs from the Oryx visually-confirmed database of equipment losses show why Russia is losing the war in Ukraine, explain the main tactical advantage of the Ukrainian army over the Russians and explain why Ukraine is so successful in defying the Russian invasion: Ukrainians strike on enemy logistics.

Analyzing the graphs of lost equipment allows us to highlight the different phases of the war and determine changes in the tactics of the Russian army.
Thanks to the Oryx project, which collects and categorizes all video and photo evidence of destroyed and captured military equipment, it is possible to make well-founded conclusions about the course of the war."

One question I have is whether or in which figures is Oryx counting loss of the weapons which fire artillery and missiles (apologies for my non-military speak). I cannot wait for Russia to run out of those buggers.

It’s helpful to remind oneself to reject the Russian framing and narrative.

It has no value in terms of what it purports to be.

That doesn’t mean that it cannot be analysed to help understand how to bring Russia to its knees in defeat. However, Russia now shows itself to be adept at defeating itself.

https://thediplomat.com/2022/05/a-former-chinese-ambassadors-trenchant-comments-on-ukraine-war-attract-notice/

A Former Chinese Ambassador’s Trenchant Comments on Ukraine War Attract Notice
Career diplomat Gao Yusheng spoke openly about how disastrous the war has been for Russia, but his comments have since been quietly deleted

Thanks for the link.

It is interesting that his comments have been scrubbed, meaning China still maintains its pro-Russia by default narrative.

"The tightrope act facing Beijing is how to mitigate the widespread perception that it has essentially sided with Moscow and retain its strategic posture against the United States and its allies."

In my day job (which is the thing I do other than doomscrolling all day), I review the risk of my employer's customer base. Russia is a big red flag, but increasingly, China is carrying geopolitical and reputational risks as well. Not enough to stop business, but enough to keep tabs on.

I assume what I do at a micro-level is being replicated throughout the business world.

One question I have is whether or in which figures is Oryx counting loss of the weapons which fire artillery and missiles (apologies for my non-military speak). I cannot wait for Russia to run out of those buggers.

The Oryx blog, started 24th Feb but looks like it’s updated v frequently is here:

www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

To get the totals you asking about it’s a case of working down the tables in the blog and finding stuff like Heavy Mortars, Towed Artillery, Self Propelled artillery and Multiple Rocket Launchers..certainly looks like a couple of hundred plus put out of use (either destroyed, rendered unserviceable, captured, abandoned)

It’s not anything we didn’t already know though, is it?

Notimagain, thanks again!

That is a very detailed list that Oryx keeps. The military equivalent of train-spotting, except with destroyed Russian vehicles and equipment.

Just in case this is of any comfort for anyone. I know they say one thing and mean another but anyhow...

Wonder if this is a sign that Russia no longer feel they can prevent Sweden and Finland joining nato

That makes it sound like they had any kind of say in the decision making process...

No of course they didn’t, I just kind in their own twisted minds.

Although of course they could have probably avoided it had they not been invading arseholes.

I know it is not safe to read anything into what Putin says but I wonder whether he has lost his mojo somewhat.

First the muted V Day speeches and then not threatening the Finnish President.

Threats are easy so no reason why he isn't coming up the goods?

No matter how well your part worked, warning the public will not happen. That's the point I was making. There's not a cat in hell's chance this government would move with precision speed to inform the public.

@blueshoes Yes, this crossed through my mind. Also noticed a lot of these threats are coming from people other than Putin himself.

More on the matter.

Just listening to Ukrainecast today and they be started with a woman whose husband is in Avoztal. Her husband last text her on the 7th May saying he loved her but that they would probably never meet again. Honestly can’t believe how that must feel.

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/may/15/scottish-support-for-monarchy-falls-to-45-poll-reveals

Just had a really depressing conversation with DH about early warning systems. The chances of getting a warning before are slim, the chances of being told after are even slimmer as most tech won't be working. So your only chance of knowing to get to safety is realising yourself what it means if the electricity goes off and your wind up radio can't find a single fm station.

Well let's hope it never comes to that :-(

Maybe we could have a separate thread for speculation about what it would be like if there was a nuclear war, and save this thread for discussion of the war that is actually happening.

I am mindful that some people come on this thread because they are anxious and find concrete information reassuring. It seems a bit harsh on them if it devolves into the kind of speculation that will just make their anxiety worse.

The last text was 7th May. That is unbearable. Not knowing if he is still alive. If he is, not knowing whether he is hurt and in pain. If he is dead, not knowing how he died or if he suffered. No answers, just an aching grief in an endless void. Unspeakable.

That would be the worst thread ever! I take the point about speculation in the event of, but I don't think it can be excluded from the discussion. I've found discussions of it helpful and I know those with anxiety have too. For example, Coffee made some brilliant, calming and informative points about it at the last panic crescendo on the thread. But when it gets to imagining the worst case I agree it's a bit overwhelming.

Agree with @MagicFox to a degree it’s helpful.

Gping back to Ukrainecast she said it was normal not to hear from him for weeks at a times. She was basically saying its hell on earth, no medicine or painkillers and lots of horrific injuries including full amputations.