Ukraine Invasion: Part 25

[MagicFox]

Hi all, another thread for supporting and sharing

If his son were conscripted how could he be expected to fight against his own people? Would he be supposed to either do that or be killed by them?

That is pretty much what is happening. Men in the Donbas are being press ganged into fighting. They are sent to forward positions to do things like dig trenches or walk ahead of Russian forces (where there might be mines) with a gun to the head. They are expected to die and are used as cannon fodder.

The alternative is torture, potential harm to family or execution.

Filtration means being shipped to somewhere in Russia with no paperwork or money. If you have family with means its possible to get out, but risky. There are no guarantees you will be able to. You may end up in a remote part of Russia which is rough as sin, and be effectively slave labour because the pay isn't really sufficient to live off and you have no means to run away.

Its a truly awful prospect.

Mick Ryan AT warinthefuture
I was going to do a thread today on the implications of Ukraine’s offensive around Kharkiv. Instead, I have pushed that to tomorrow in order to discuss the Russian river crossing operation over the Severskyi Donets this week in #Ukraine. 1/

2/ This Russian river crossing has gained attention because it resulted in the loss of (probably) a battalion tactical group and some critical engineer equipment. The reality is, it is worse than that.

3/ Before examining why, let’s explore these types of operations. Assault river crossings are one of the most difficult combined arms operations possible. Not only do all the elements of the ground team need to come together in a tightly orchestrated series of events.

4/ The combined arms team also needs to deceive the enemy about crossing site and timings. And, the combined arms team is quite vulnerable while it waits to cross once the crossing site is established - regardless of how much dispersal and camouflage is conducted.

5/ I had a Brigade commander once who had us focus on these operations because if we could successfully undertake assault river crossings as a Brigade, we could do any other combined arms mission. He was right.

6/ These operations are generally conducted in 6 phases. First is recon and planning. Why is it needed, where will it be done, what is the follow-on mission on the other side of the river, and what info is needed to bring it all together?

7/ Of course, the defender on the other side of the river has also probably done an ‘engineer appreciation’ to find likely crossing sites. These will be high priority areas to cover in their recon and surveillance plan.

8/ Second is ‘suppression’. This means to suppress the enemy in the vicinity of the crossing site. This includes denying them close recon, surveillance or direct / indirect fire onto the crossing site (both sides), exit routes on the far bank, and assembly areas on the home bank.

9/ Next is ‘obscure’. You don’t want the enemy to see what you are doing. This can including doing things at night, smoke, electronic jamming, feints at other sites, etc. And of course, you want to destroy as much of the enemy in the vicinity of the crossing site before crossing.

10/ Fourth, is ‘secure’. In this phase, friendly forces secure routes to the crossing site, assembly areas, as well as home and far banks of the crossing. Forces are also pushed across the ‘gap’ to secure the far back and ensure the enemy can’t interfere with bridging operations.

11/ Fifth, and the part combat engineers love - ‘reduce’. Reducing obstacles means the obstacle (in this case a river) is crossed and negated as an obstacle to friendly maneuver. Normally, a brigade would have at least two crossing sites with a 3rd in reserve.

12/ The final phase is ‘assault’. The ground maneuver force (supported by army aviation and Air Force assets), artillery, electronic warfare, etc crosses the bridges and shakes itself out on the far side of the crossing in preparation to continue the advance.

13/ I would add that Military Police are really important in this endeavour. There is a lot of directing traffic. This is particularly important to ensure the units prioritized by higher commanders cross first. This can get emotional at times - everyone wants to be first across.

14/ Of course, once the crossing site is established, it needs to be protected - on the ground, from air attack and from other sources of threat. In Australia, during training exercises, we often had to protect against crocodile attacks.

15/ The crossing site (regardless of how many bridges or ferries there are) is normally controlled by a regulating headquarters to ensure it is used in accordance with the wider scheme of maneuver leading up to the crossing, and the operations planned after it.

16/ And it would be remiss of me not to mention logisticians. Each site needs them to refuel vehicles, recover bogged vehicles, repair bridge equipment and boats, etc.

17/ An important aspect of assault river crossings is that they are only undertaken if absolutely necessary. The resources needed - engineers, bridges, artillery - are closely husbanded by commanders. As I already mentioned, they are really hard, especially when being shot at.

18/ Therefore, such operations normally only occur on an axis of advance that is a main effort (or about to become the main effort). This has been missed by many commentators - the Russians clearly intended to invest in this axis and throw a lot of combat power down it.

19/ Consequently, this is probably a larger set back for the Russians than some have speculated. Yes, they lost a lot of vehicles - but they are used to that now. It has likely resulted in not just a BTG but probably an entire Brigade losing a large part of its combat power.

20/ Importantly, the Russians lost scarce engineer bridging equipment (and probably combat engineers too). These resources are neither cheap nor available in large quantities. And these are in high demand during an offensive.

21/ But perhaps most importantly, defeating this assault river crossing has probably denied the Russians an axis of advance they clearly thought was going to be productive for them in their eastern offensive. This is a significant set back for them.

22/ This was just a quick look at assault river crossings, how they are done, and what this week’s disaster on the Severskyi Donets river means for the Russian Army in eastern Ukraine. I hope it was useful. End

Few points on this. The big failed river crossing was seen and predicted by Ukrainian engineers, who planned according. Remember the point that this is a war of no surprises with drones and satellite. From what I've read, it was done in daylight but the Russians used lots of smoke to try and hide it.

The Ukrainians have fallen back to the river as a defensive point in the east now. To retake land they will have to bridge the river at some point. The same is true in Kherson region although Kherson itself is on the right side of the river.

This presents a problem for Ukraine which isn't really being talked about in all the hype about a potential victory for Ukraine.

What I will say in terms of how Ukraine may be able to cross when Russia failed is this.

Ukraine clearly have better communication between air and land. This means they were more likely to spot an attempt at crossing. They generally have a better ability at planning and execution which means they possibly can do it quicker and more efficiently. If they can do it and precipitate a Russian collaspe due to a lack of defence in depth (which Ukraine have but Russia appear to be struggling with). In attempting crossings first, Russia have invested their expertise and engineers who are capable of identifying potential crossing points. If this expertise is wiped out, the Russians will be less able to identify possible Ukrainian crossings and stop them, so its worth letting Russia burn this skill down before going on the offensive.

Russia have noticably only carried out missile strikes at night in areas they don't feel safe in the air. Conversely we've seen a lot about how Ukraine has been successfully carrying out night operations, in part because they have the night vision the Russians lack.

If Ukraine can get the upper hand in the air and take out as many warships as possible, then they limit the risk to crossing points to artillery in range. So key is to take out warships and potentially subs and large amounts of artillery. We know they are being pretty successful at the latter generally, but this stresses why its still a grind at this point. There was talk last night about all the Russian subs in the black sea leaving port yesterday. Why? Partly because they will want to keep Ukraine pinned down. However they have limited ammunition and will have to come in eventually for more. Why have all of them gone out? Well they are most vulnerable in port. And the Ukrainians just got anti-ship missiles which would put them in range...

Ukraine would be foolish to even attempt a river crossing before optimum conditions were right for them. Whilst the temptation to take out bridges remains, you also want to avoid trapping Russians and the escape routes as you want to facilitate panic and exodus by free will.

You also want to focus on how the Russians are resupplying. You hit the railways first because the Ukrainians don't need these. They are less necessary for an advance. Hence the Kharkiv assault being the priority.

Russian resources are finite. Ukrainian ones are not - other than manpower. You protect that over and above everything.

Ukraine would have to attack, advance and secure the area to a certain distance probably over night. And hope for a Russian defensive collapse the other side of the river. Ukraine probably have a greater chance of success if carefully planned. They know the land and have better communication. It can not be rushed. The battlefield as a whole must be prepared.

We aren't at that point yet.

When Mark Hertling refers to watching Kherson now, as the Kharkiv assault is getting there, what he's saying is not necessarily to see a big imminent push. He's saying to look for the prep for the push.

Those warships and subs are one of the big keys. The subs all going out, is interesting. I initially thought it ominous, not understanding why they were doing it. I now lean towards its being a sign of increasing Russian fear and caution.

Also Russia turning to subs, probably also says something about their airforce and artillery capability.

A comment from Ukraine that underlines what it means when an army revolves from a defensive position to counter-attack.

On a less intense scale, this has been the Donbas since before 2022. On an intense scale this was the stalemate of the Iran/Iraq war back in the early 1980’s.

Ukrainian counter-offensive needs

Corroboration

Re talk of a coup. It may well be the case that something is going on. I got the sense yesterday that there were feelers going out about diplomacy. Thats a sharp contrast to what Putin has said and what Medvedev was saying. Plus you have US intelligence saying Russia digging in for a long war and Ukrainian intelligence saying quite the opposite. I think its possible both are correct for different reasons - it could be reputable and legitimate sources but different ones and there is a real split within Russia.

That in itself would be reason to stir the pot about a coup.

Putin position is weak. He isn't in control of matters at this point. Events are beyond that. As thing unravel further that will increase.

If the Ukrainians do want to go on the offensive soon, then ground work to make Russians panic and flee parts of Ukraine makes sense. Its all about demoralisation and trying to project the idea that Putin is losing on all fronts: military and political.

It also stands to fuel this split within the Russian leadership and make people think there are more people opposed to the war and Putin than they might be aware of. It empowers and enboldens.

It also says, the Ukrainians are listening, aware and ready. Channels of communication are open.

There will be disquiet over what has happened to Gerasimov. He was well thought of and has been 'suspended' amidst rumours that he was caught up in a Ukrainian attack and was injured. Other senior Russians in the military and intelligence were also thrown under the bus. There will be some looking to save themselves and to jump ship if the opportunity presents itself.

I also think encouraging dissent and to not follow orders from above, and the concept of a possible coup, is worthwhile with regards to those nukes too. If it comes to it, you want people to refuse to obey superiors.

Again all ground work.

That interview with sky has intrigued me.

Thank you for this detailed explanation.

From Targus's CNN link:

A Ukrainian lawmaker called on the United States to provide air defense systems and fighter jets to Ukraine, saying that the situation on the battlefield is "far worse" than it was at the beginning of the war.

“It is hell” on the frontlines right now, Oleksandra Ustinova told reporters at a German Marshall Fund roundtable in Washington Friday. “We keep losing many more men now than it was at the beginning of the war.”

Daria Kaleniuk, a leading Ukrainian civil society activist, explained “we can't win this war with Soviet equipment because A. Russia has much more Soviet equipment, B. we don't have anywhere to get ammunition for this, and C. Russia simply has more people and more troops."

Ustinova said Ukraine no longer seeks the Soviet-era MiG fighter jets because “the war has changed.”

Instead, she said Ukraine needs the Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS), Paladin self-propelled howitzers, and fighter jets like the F-16s in order to effectively counter Russia, and called on the US to begin training Ukrainian pilots to use such jets.

Kaleniuk, who said she recently met with Ukrainian defense officials in Kyiv, noted that Ukraine has “combat-experienced pilots, who are willing and ready to go now for trainings. They were willing to go yesterday for trainings. But there is no decision to accept them and to provide that because there is no decision to provide fighter jets.”

The US has begun to send heavy weaponry to Ukraine, but has yet to give them MLRS or fighter jets.

Ustinova and Kaleniuk, who were in Washington this week for meetings, said that they believe there is a lack of “political will that is needed” for the administration to decide to send such kinds of heavy weaponry – and quickly — and the feeling that there is still fear about provoking Moscow.

They decried the fact that it took so long for the US to decide to send the heavy weaponry it is sending now, with Ustinova saying, “if we had Howitzers two months ago, Mariupol would not happen because they wouldn't be able to surround like they did, to surround the city and literally destroy it.”

“For us time means lives, thousands of lives. We've been hearing that it has been unprecedented how fast everything is moving and how fast the decisions are taking. But there has never been a war since World War Two like that. And unfortunately, we keep asking here to take the decisions faster,” she said.

I think that tends to back up my fear and the fear of others, that Ukraine has really taken a LOT of casualties in recent weeks.

I fear the number dead and wounded is high. Up to mid April i do believe Ukrainian claims of about 3000 dead. But now, I think theyve really suffered.

All the journalist reports Ive seen from the Donbas have hinted at this, though nothing explicit. Its different in tone to the early stage of the war.

Time will reveal the truth, but there are definite signs that its not all good news. There was a rumour that they took a particularly heavy hit on a c & c last week too.

Iullia Mendal AT iuliiamendal
"Now only about 2K refugees from Ukraine arrive in Germany every day. In mid-March it was more than 15K a day," German Minister of the Interior Nancy Fasser said.
20K Ukrainians are now returning to their country daily, including those leaving Germany. She assumes that "most people will return”

Most of those coming to the UK in our area, are only JUST arriving. I don't know whether this is true across the UK but it certainly is around here.

Interesting that the Russians conducted their Bridge Crossing in daylight.
We used to conduct them at night on NATO exercises.
And that was w/o night vision, not sure it existed then !

Thank you for the geographical details @MMBaranova

In terms of providing Ukraine with weapons, there was a "tectonic shift", - Reznikov Джерело: censor.net/ua/n3341218

The Minister of Defense of Ukraine Alexey Reznikov declared that for the last month in the plan of arms supply to Ukraine there was a "tectonic shift".

He stressed: "It is obvious to everyone that Russia significantly outperforms Ukraine in its resources. However, after February 24 we were not preparing to defend our country for a week, a month or until May 9. We were confident in the Armed Forces and understood that the confrontation would be long. complete victory.

We also realized that the existing stockpiles of Soviet-made weapons in the course of high-intensity hostilities were quickly depleted. Therefore, work was carried out at all levels to change the philosophy of support for Ukraine by Western partners.

Every day, in face-to-face meetings with Partner defense ministers, I had to systematically explain to them that Ukraine needs heavy weapons - aircraft, artillery, tanks and armored vehicles, etc. - of Western standards and calibers used by NATO countries. "

Reznikov continued: "The main argument was that Ukraine is defending the whole of Europe, and strengthening our defense is strengthening NATO's eastern flank. Therefore, ensuring the de facto interoperability of Allied armies with Ukrainian defense forces is in the common interest.

Eventually there was a tectonic shift. Within a month, Ukraine has completed an integration path in the field of defense that it has not been able to overcome for 30 years.

We are already receiving heavy weapons from our partners. In particular, American 155 mm M777 howitzers are already working at the front. Three months ago, this was considered impossible.

I would like to thank my friend and great friend of Ukraine, the Minister of Defense of the United Kingdom, Ben Wallace, who has worked hard to increase aid to our country. At his initiative, a large donors' conference was convened in late March, which became an important stage in forming a common position of European partners and accelerating security de facto integration with Ukraine. "

"Thanks to the leadership of our American partners and friends, and personally to Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin III, a fundamental transition took place on April 26 during a historic meeting of defense leaders from more than 40 countries at Ramstein's base in Germany. shocked by the atrocities of the Russian occupiers on our land, set a new common goal: not to stop, but to defeat the Kremlin.

This is fully in line with our aspirations, as our goal is to restore sovereignty and territorial integrity within internationally recognized borders.

The United States has already passed a law on land lease, a format of aid that helped defeat Hitler during World War II. US President Joe Biden symbolically signed it on May 9. Another law on increasing support for Ukraine is being debated.

Political decisions are being made in various countries, as well as at the EU level, which will increase Ukraine's support not only in defense, but also in economic, social and humanitarian terms. And I want to thank everyone who is close to Ukraine at this time. Especially - to our Polish, Lithuanian, Latvian, Estonian friends, whose contribution is difficult to overestimate.

Thus, the strategic defeat of the Russian Federation on the battlefield was compounded by the strategic defeat at the international level. If we remember that the civilized world is tightening economic sanctions, and Finland and Sweden are preparing to apply for NATO membership, the international context for the Kremlin is systematically deteriorating. The world has a chance to defeat a dictatorship that poses a global threat.

^All this became possible thanks to the courage, dedication and great sacrifice of the Ukrainian people, "the Minister said. Джерело: censor.net/ua/n3341218^

^^

Euromaidan Press AT euromaidanpress
Russian troops tried to cross riv.Siverskyi Donets near Bilohorivka 9 times, Ukraine's 80th airborne brigade said. It disrupted attempts & eliminated those who crossed the river.
Russian persistence helped to advance several km with hight losses in Donbas last days

Chornobaivka Part Deux

I work in a GP surgery and we've only just started noticing refugees trying to register. Nothing for the last few weeks but definitely increasing numbers now. Not sure if this is because they've taken some time settling in before doing so but usually it's mostly near the top of refugees lists, especially those with children I've noticed in the past.

I don't see the Russian use of submarines as missile launchers as necessarily being of that much significance TBH..

These days boats with long range missiles for tactical use aren't that unusual and are just another tool in the precision munitions tool box, certainly v useful for targets beyond artillery range.

The west (specifically the US Navy) was firing Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles (TLAM) from subs at targets in Iraq as far back as Gulf War One..There are reports that the Royal Navy used submarine launched TLAM during the Balkans conflict.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tomahawk_(missile)

ukdefencejournal.org.uk/britains-1000-mile-punch-the-tomahawk-cruise-missile/

Two weeks ago, i was at a local community meeting, and there were loads of Brits but only one Ukrainian family. Everyone was saying they were expecting people in the next two weeks / still waiting on visas. Social media is now starting to see a drip, drip of people saying their guests have arrived.

Most common issue seemed to be getting stuff done with the council. They are really overwhelmed by the sound of it. They had one refugee office in January. They took on a new person in March. And last I heard they were in the process of hiring a third.

There were numerous people who had visas for some of their guests but not all.

I know one host applied for their guests in the first week of the scheme (think it was between 14 and 21st March). They only all got their visas last week. The family arrived a few days ago. Its taken the best part of 9 weeks start to finish.

As I've said previously, I do know others who have been processed much quicker - including some without the safeguarding checks on the property and hosts (Extended DBS wasn't done before the approval and family does include a child coming)

Whole thing is bonkers and complete chaos.

More on War Crimes. The CNN link tracing the impacts created by cluster munitions back via satellite to Russian firing posts is worth a read.

From Censor.net
41 Russian servicemen suspected of war crimes will answer before the Ukrainian court, - Venediktov

Ukrainian law enforcement officers suspect 41 Russian servicemen of war crimes committed in Ukraine, they will answer to Ukrainian court
According to Censor.NET , with reference to Interfax-Ukraine , this was stated by Prosecutor General Irina Venediktova on the air of the Ukrainian telethon on Friday night.

"We have 41 suspects in cases with which we will be ready to go to court ... all of them follow Article 438 of the Criminal Code on war crimes, but different types of crimes. This includes bombing of civilian infrastructure, killing of civilians, rape and looting. ", - said Venediktov.

The Prosecutor General reminded that on Friday the Solomyansky court of Kyiv court considered the case of Russian serviceman Vadim Shishimarin in the murder of a civilian in Sumy region and added that hearings on two more Russian servicemen would be scheduled soon.

"We are also already in court and, I think, there will be preliminary hearings next week, about two more people who are also physically in Ukraine ... These people bombed civilian infrastructure and residential buildings," Venediktov said.

^"We are doing everything in such a way that we do not have questions" why are you going to court ". We will be ready for any trials both on the platform of Ukraine with these cases and on international platforms," the Prosecutor General concluded. Джерело: censor.net/ua/n3341170^

From CNN
Russian General implicated in crimes against civilians in Ukraine and Syria met with UK counterpart in 2017

A Russian General, identified in a CNN investigation as responsible for targeting civilians in the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv and his role as the architect of the siege of Aleppo, was involved in high-level defense talks with his UK counterpart in 2017 after receiving Russia's highest military honor for his role in its war in Syria.

Tracing war crimes back to Colonel-General Zhuravlyov

Col-General Alexander Zhuravlyov, in his capacity as then Deputy Chief of General Staff, met with the UK's then Vice Chief of Defence Staff General Messenger for high-level talks, during a trip to Moscow in 2017 in what was characterized by the UK's Ministry of Defence as "military to military dialogue."

Zhuravlyov discussed with Messenger "a restart of military interaction," Russian state news agency TASS reported on February 28, 2017, quoting Russia's Ministry of Defense.

CNN's investigation found that Zhuravlyov's leadership in 2016 catalyzed the assault on eastern Aleppo. After he took the reins, the Russian military rapidly ramped up its attacks on the rebel-held territory and completed the siege of the densely populated city, exacting a large death toll and setting the wheels in motion for a tactic that has defined Russia's intervention in Syria: besiege, starve, bombard and grind into submission.

His period of command also saw a dramatic increase in documented cluster munition attacks in Aleppo.

European intelligence agency analysts who spoke to CNN on condition of anonymity said the pattern of Zhuravlyov's behavior in Syria and Ukraine is the same, subjugating cities through terror. "Zhuravlyov was brought in with the purpose of bringing about a swift capitulation of Aleppo. He did that using much of the same methodology we see in Ukraine. Ordering the indiscriminate use of cluster munitions against dense civilian infrastructure and populations," the analyst said.

Syrian human rights activists have long called for Russia's General to be held accountable, and a leading UK human rights lawyer at the law firm Payne Hicks Beach, Matthew Ingham, told CNN: "Colonel General Alexander Zhuravlyov should have been sanctioned for his actions in Syria" adding, "It is a shame that there was not a stronger response to alleged war crimes at that stage, because that may have affected Putin's Ukrainian strategic calculations from the outset.

Neither the US nor the UK have taken public action against Zhuravlyov or other key Russian generals implicated in war crimes. The US State Department wouldn't comment on the specific findings of CNN's investigation but said they continued to track and assess war crimes and reports of ongoing violence and abuses.

Col-General Alexander Zhuravlyov, in his capacity as then Deputy Chief of General Staff, met with the UK's then Vice Chief of Defence Staff General Messenger for high-level talks, during a trip to Moscow in 2017 in what was characterized by the UK's Ministry of Defence as "military to military dialogue."

//using coding comments as I was shown years ago
//by programmers who struggled getting it right then

/*
That's probably when the Russian backed UK government with Boris as foreign secretary was selling Ukraine by the pound.

Now the Russian ire with the UK is becoming clear through the fog. Seems Boris and the boys have scammed them. Lying toad lies to Russians. Who knew ?
*/

ISW:

Key Takeaways

Ukraine has likely won the Battle of Kharkiv. Russian forces continued to withdraw from the northern settlements around Kharkiv City. Ukrainian forces will likely attempt to disrupt Russian ground lines of communication to Izyum.

Ukrainian forces have likely disrupted the Russian attempt to cross the Siverskyi Donets River in force, undermining Russian efforts to mass troops in northern Donbas and complete the encirclement of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.

Russian forces have likely secured the highway near the western entrance to the Azovstal Steel Plant but fighting for the facility continues.

Russian forces in Zaporizhia Oblast are likely attempting to reach artillery range outside Zaporizhia City.

Ukrainian forces are reportedly attempting to regain control of Snake Island off the Romanian coast or at least disrupt Russia’s ability to use it.

+++

⚡️The total combat losses of the Russians from February 24 to May 14 were approximately:

Personnel — about 27,200 people
Tanks — 1218
Armored combat vehicles — 2934
Artillery systems — 551
MLRS — 195
Air defense systems — 88
Aircraft — 200
Helicopters — 163
UAV operational-tactical level — 411
Cruise missiles — 95
Ships/boats — 13
Automotive equipment and tank trucks — 2059
Special equipment — 42

‼️ The greatest losses of the enemy (last day) were observed in the Slavic and Bakhmut directions.

+++

⚡️Ukraine to receive an additional 350,000 tons of fuel using new logistical routes.

(Entry permits for fuel are no longer needed and a few other things. This is good news as Russia has effectively damaged or taken out of operation a lot of the refining facilities)

+++

⚡️Governor: Russian troops seized most of Rubizhne. (although at high vehicle losses)

+++

⚡️France denies Zelensky’s allegations over concessions to Russia. (regarding yesterday's comments about what Macron said to Putin).

+++

From UkraineNOW telegram channel, highlights

️Russian enemy continues to conduct a full-scale armed aggression against Ukraine. The main goal is to establish full control over the territory of Donetsk, Luhansk and Kherson regions and ensure the stability of the land corridor with the temporarily occupied Ukrainian Crimea.

️Russian aggressor continues to fight in the Eastern Operational Zone, firing along the entire line of contact and in the depths of the defence of our troops. The greatest activity of Russian occupiers is observed in Slobozhansky and Donetsk directions. There is still a threat that the enemy will launch missile and bomb strikes on military and civilian facilities in Ukraine. [Firing along the entire line seems a bit odd to me. Won't they be spreading their efforts thin?]

️In the Siversky direction, Russian enemy provides enhanced protection of the Ukrainian-Russian border in the Bryansk and Kursk regions.

️Russian enemy did not conduct active hostilities in the Kharkiv direction. Its main efforts were focused on ensuring the withdrawal of its troops from the city of Kharkiv, maintaining the occupied positions and supply routes.

️Russian occupiers conducted air reconnaissance using the Orlan-10 UAV in the areas of the settlements of Izyum, Kapitolivka and Dibrova in the Kharkiv region.
️In the Donetsk and Tavriya directions, Russian enemy used mortars, artillery, rocket-propelled grenades and aircraft to inflict maximum losses on units of the Defence Forces, deplete personnel and destroy fortifications [ implying personnel losses, as RTB has highlighted] In addition, Russian enemy is trying to improve the tactical situation in the areas of Komyshuvakha, Krasnohorivka, Novomykhailivka, Kostiantynivka and Pobeda. It is not successful.

️In the city of Mariupol, Russian enemy continues to blockade our units near the Azovstal plant. Inflicts massive artillery and air strikes.

In the Zaporizhizhya direction, in order to maintain the occupied territory, there are preparatory measures for the construction of a multi-tiered defence by the occupiers.

+++
The Kyiv Independent, [14/05/2022 06:42]
⚡️Azov officer: Russian forces lost about 6,000 troops in Mariupol.

+++

Russian forces continued to storm the Azovstal steel plant, the last bastion of Ukrainian resistance in Mariupol. Palamar estimated that Russian forces have lost over 6,000 troops so far, including one general in battles in Mariupol, as well as 78 tanks and about 100 armored vehicles. (no further news on the evacuation of the 38 heavily wounded)

+++

Also, Russian troops tried to conduct a land offensive from Izyum, but to no avail. (I imagine this is significant since Izyum has been pivotal)

+++

(YAY!) For the first time in the history of the Navy of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, a girl became a navigator.

+++

Had to laugh at the second image

I am not sure.
I had some local recent arrivals round for tea a week ago and between us we only knew of about half as many still to come. It felt like there was a bit of a wave at the same time as my guests arrived, about a fortnight ago.
It takes a lot of determination to get to the UK and I think we might see quite a different pattern of arrivals and departures from that in countries that are closer to Ukraine where you can literally get on a train and go straight there without visas. There are also going to be different choices made by people with young children like my guests for whom the level of risk tolerated and bar for the amount of disruption you can handle are both going to be lower than for single people.
Also I did notice that the people who came round my house last week were mostly pretty well educated, had mainly lived abroad before. A period in the UK can feel almost like a positive part of your life plan, in which your children will learn English and you might even make useful professional contacts yourself. It’s so much harder for people who only speak their home language and have never lived away from home before. I think what I am saying is the rush back home from Germany might not be replicated here so soon.

@RedToothBrush · 14/05/2022 05:13
If his son were conscripted how could he be expected to fight against his own people? Would he be supposed to either do that or be killed by them?

That is pretty much what is happening. Men in the Donbas are being press ganged into fighting. They are sent to forward positions to do things like dig trenches or walk ahead of Russian forces (where there might be mines) with a gun to the head. They are expected to die and are used as cannon fodder.

The alternative is torture, potential harm to family or execution.

Filtration means being shipped to somewhere in Russia with no paperwork or money. If you have family with means its possible to get out, but risky. There are no guarantees you will be able to. You may end up in a remote part of Russia which is rough as sin, and be effectively slave labour because the pay isn't really sufficient to live off and you have no means to run away.

Its a truly awful prospect.

Thank you for your answer RTB. It is awful.
For anyone reading, as a reminder, this was about another post last night. The poster has a contact in Ukraine in Russian controlled territory who fears for their teenage son. They want to escape but dare not go through filtration in Russia and don’t know what to do. They fear conscription for their son.

tYou’d think that if the Russians had too many press-ganged (prisoner) soldiers in their battalion they’d be scared of them organising to sabotage or kill them. These forced soldiers could reach a point where they might feel they have nothing to lose.

@MMBaranova · 13/05/2022 23:08
Retaking Kherson Oblast would be a challenge. There are clear geographical issues.

Thank you for your vivid and detailed description of the geography of that area.

As an aside...I've just been shown a front page..I'm not going to provide the link but what the heck is that UK Newspaper up to (again)..

Is it being paid by somebody in the Kremlin to repeatedly to try scare the pants off people and undermine support for Ukraine?