Ukraine Invasion: Part 25

[MagicFox]

Hi all, another thread for supporting and sharing

@Natsku ah yes Eurovision! We are having a party - will be cheering on Ukraine! I heard that U.K.is a favourite which is…unusual 😂

Taking of hope for the future being firmly with the younger generation:

'The New Russian Exiles and How they can Defeat Putin'

www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russian-federation/2022-05-13/escape-moscow

If I had to choose jobs between president of Turkey and president of Russia, I'd take Russia as being simpler.

But those Nordic terrorist???
Maybe Macron should be phoning Erdogan each week.

I so don't agree with Erdogan but also so respect him for doing the impossible job.

Geopolitics is hard work.

via sky live feed:

War will reach a turning point in August - and be over by the end of the year, says Ukrainian intelligence chief

By Dominic Waghorn, international affairs editor

Ukraine's head of military intelligence says the war with Russia is going so well, it will reach a turning point by mid August and be over by the end of the year.
It is the most precise and optimistic prediction by a senior Ukrainian official so far.

In an exclusive interview with Sky News, Major General Kyrylo Budanov also said a coup to remove Vladimir Putin is already underway in Russia and the Russian leader is seriously ill with cancer.

His office is dark and stuffed with the paraphernalia of war and espionage, sandbags stacked on its windows, machine guns piled on the floor, a spare rifle magazine on his desk used as a paperweight.
He is remarkably young to lead his country’s military intelligence agency at just 36 years, and speaks with the dry precision of his trade.
He showed little emotion, smiling only once as he said in English, "I’m optimistic".

Budanov correctly predicted when the Russian invasion would happen when others in his government were publicly sceptical and now says he is confident about predicting its conclusion.

"The breaking point will be in the second part of August.
Most of the active combat actions will have finished by the end of this year.
As a result we will renew Ukrainian power in all our territories that we have lost including Donbass and the Crimea."

Russia’s tactics have not changed despite its shift to the east he says, and Russia is suffering huge losses though he would not be drawn on Ukrainian casualties.

He said he was not surprised by Russia's setbacks in the war.

"We know everything about our enemy.
We know about their plans almost as they’re being made.

"Europe sees Russia as a big threat.
They are afraid of its aggression.
We have been fighting Russia for eight years and we can say that this highly publicised Russian power is a myth.
It is not as powerful as this.
It is a horde of people with weapons."

Mark Hertling AT MarkHertling
On 2/24 -at the start of the conflict- I posted the attached thread with
reasons why I thought Ukraine would win.

We’re now seeing RU transition to a “hasty defense” in many sectors, while regrouping for new offensive operations.

That portends some problems for RU. 1/12

In his classic “On War,” Clausewitz provides an entire chapter on “culmination.”

He implies there are various factors that cause an army to culminate -stop- their offense & revert to the defense.

Fatigue, will, force depletion, supplies, not reaching strategic goals, etc. 2/

An army may also transition to the offense from the defense if they have the strength & believe doing so will help achieve operational or strategic goals.

But to do that, the army must have a growing resource capability, will, momentum, & achievable strategic objectives.
3/

I said a few weeks ago that we would soon see both the RU and UKR force “culminate” and transition to different operations.

We are on the cusp of that transition. 4/

RU:

-has seen a continuous deterioration of their force, as indicated by their equipment loss & personnel casualties
-there have been increasing indicators (and intel reports) of extremely low morale, desertions, and unwillingness to reenter the fight. 5/

-while RU has attempted to “fix” their leadeship and logistics shortcomings, they have not.
-the failure to achieve (& then even reduce) strategic objectives through operational design & tactical battles are apparent
6/

RU has thus far failed to seize/secure 3 major cities -Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa- that are key to achieving their strategic objectives.

They are now in the process of stating “new” strategic objectives & once again adjusting their operational campaign plan. 7/

UKR:
-strategic goals remain unchanged while the operational campaign & sequencing of tactical battles have contributed to success.
-RU terror & criminal actions have only contributed to the will of UKR army & government. 8/

-with arriving military aid, the needed UKR resources for offensive operations are available.
-there is a growing momentum generated by success achieved during limited counteroffensives.
9/

In early April, I said “watch the fight in Kharkiv, the NE Donbas, & the southern coast.”

It’s now time to focus on the E (center) and SE Donbas fight & the Rostov-Mariupol-Kherson-Odesa line of communication.

10/

I’ll be closely watching movement of forces (& logistic support) in both these areas…and the capability of RU blue water navy operating in a literal conflict. 11/

One last thought…

Clausewitz is also quoted regarding “chance” in war.

My thought -less refined than his definition-is chance favors the side that creates their own luck.

I give UKR the advantage in this category, too.
12/12

Just came here specifically to see about this! Will the coup happen? Or will it be like the Belarusian one a few weeks back? 🤔

I feel like Kherson has been forgotten of late. I don't know whether that is a strategic decision or simply a prioritisation of Ukraine troops and resources. What do others think?

Important. Latest analysis from ISW: www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-annexation-occupied-ukraine-putin%E2%80%99s-unacceptable-%E2%80%9C-ramp%E2%80%9D

"Putin likely intends to annex occupied southern and eastern Ukraine…He will likely then state, directly or obliquely, that Russian doctrine permitting the use of nuclear weapons to defend Russian territory applies to those territories.” @Cirincione

So counteroffensive in occupied territory urgent

ISW:

Despite its conventional military failures, the only off-ramp the Kremlin appears to be considering is at least partial victory. Putin likely understands that there will be no return to the Minsk II accords or any similar legal framework that allowed for Russian interference in Ukrainian politics. But Putin has not ceded his longer-term ambition of controlling Kyiv, even though his attempts to take the Ukrainian state by force have failed (for now). If Putin annexes occupied territory and the conflict settles in along new front lines, the Kremlin could reconstitute its forces and renew Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in the coming years, this time from a position of greater strength and territorial advantage.
The West must take seriously the real and likely threat that Russia will annex southeastern Ukraine and the expand Russian nuclear doctrine to cover that newly annexed territory. Russia’s annexation plans are not guaranteed to succeed. They depend on consolidating control of occupied territory, establishing administrative capabilities, and preventing a Ukrainian counteroffensive. The West must do what it can to deter Putin’s expansionism while also preparing an answer that offers Ukraine more than capitulation.
Ukraine and its Western partners likely have a narrow window of opportunity to support a Ukrainian counteroffensive into occupied Ukrainian territory before the Kremlin annexes that territory (or brings up additional forces). This window of opportunity is not necessarily obvious. In a military sense, Ukrainian forces should begin their counteroffensive before Russian forces decide that their campaign has culminated and begin to dig into more orderly and possibly morale-boosting defensive positions. Poor morale and worse leadership have soundly degraded Russian forces; Ukraine should ideally counter-attack at the time of maximum Russian disorder before Russian forces have time to fully go over to the defensive and dig in.
The political and ethical consequences of a longstanding Russian occupation of southeastern Ukraine would be devastating to the long-term viability of the Ukrainian state and necessitate Western support for a more immediate Ukrainian counteroffensive. Every day that occupied Ukraine remains under Russian control is another day of horrific human rights abuses, targeted degradation of Ukrainian governance structures, and “filtration” of civilian populations. If Ukrainian forces do not retake southeastern Ukraine before Moscow annexes that territory, Kyiv may find that the southeast has become irreparably mired in the same situation that Crimea has faced since 2014.

@TargusEasting - the numbered bullet points, even if they're all 1 did have the advantage that they created pseudo paragraphs, which made it easier for those of us on the app to read your post

I posted about Kherson but the message seemed to vanish as my away from home internet struggled. In essence:

1. The situation is bad for the people there.
2. There are artillery exchanges, burning vegetation and some small Ukrainian advances

The current estimated situation on the ground is here.

I was reading about this yesterday. There is a feeling that the Ukrainians have done some prioritisation.

They prioritised Kharkiv because they think they can regain ground, relieve the city and most crucially disrupt the supply chain to Izyum in doing so.

It was felt that after this was achieved more attention would be given to Kherson, because they would not have to commit as much to holding the line in the Donbas, particularly around Izyum, as advancing further wouldn't be possible. Atm they are using the river to help contain the Russians but are only just managing it in places.

I think the phrase i saw was about nibbling away at Russia in something of a death by 1000 cuts kind of way, being the strategic plan for Ukraine.

Thanks @MMBaranova and @RedToothBrush . I have a contact there who said that the Russian invaders have now moved into every local administrative building not just the main ones in the centre and that they are becoming very entrenched. They are considering coming to the UK via Russia but do not want to go through the filtration process but they are also worried about being conscripted. He has an older teenage son.

One thing that we interpret as a positive is that the sound of explosions get nearer every day.

I have said that they will need courage whatever they decide.

Retaking Kherson Oblast would be a challenge. There are clear geographical issues.

It's steppe. Generally flat or near flat steppe. The black earth etc. is cultivated and the sand is not (the blob SW of Nova Khakovka is sand and there is more to the west of that). Most of the steppe is used for agriculture, with irrigation in some places. There are big fields and some more intensive market gardening (the latter where some of my relatives are). There aren't a lot of people. Ballpark 1 million. The two bits of Crimea have a similar area and have a population of 2.5 million and that is still low density. Kherson city was about 0.28 million, so add in the other urban areas and there's a mass of land left with very low population density and swathes that are effectively unpopulated and farmers come out from settlements that are hardly even nearby.

Then there's the river. The Dnieper/Dnipro isn't really a river though. The dams in this section of it's course effectively make it a linear reservoir. This is often 3-5km wide (or ore in the NE) and in the narrower sections there's floodplain with no local roads.

As I've mentioned before there are TWO road and one rail bridges across the river in the Oblast.

So how do you take it back?

With difficulty.

Approaching the city itself from the Mykolaiv direction leaves anyone very exposed and there just aren't the roads apart from two main ones and farm roads.

Then you get to the city and what? Turn it into a Kharkiv and shell your own citizens as well as the Russian troops?

Swing around and take the bridge east of the city, if it is not destroyed and then what? Perhaps the Russians surrender or perhaps it becomes a hellish siege with trapped Ukrainian citizens being the main victims.

Cross the river elsewhere? I'm not sure there are pontoons that long and it's not easy land on either side. If you did your mega pontoon is such a tempting target.

The fields north of the river and east of Kherson city might be liberated, but beyond that things are a challenge in current circumstances. Then there's Donbas to hold. If there was a general Russian collapse maybe more could be achieved.

How the area fell so easily is another matter.

I'm so bloody stupid. I just ventured onto the Daily Mail site and now I won't be able to sleep because of the rage.

They're reporting that Johnson could only sign up to the mutual defense position with Sweden and Finland because of brexit. And, agreeing to it shows that Boris is a better European than any of his continental critics.

FFS!

@MMBaranova thankyou. Understanding the landscape and population density is very helpful. Doesn't sound like there's very many places to hide! There are some extremely brave people there, allegedly well over half of the population has fled so lots of empty residences...

I read there was a lot if pro russian sentiment in local authority circles and treachery at a very high level?

To get an idea of the scale of the place with about 1 million population, it's bigger than Wales and nearly as large as Belgium.

@MagicFox · 13/05/2022 22:17

Important. Latest analysis from ISW: www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-annexation-occupied-ukraine-putin%E2%80%99s-unacceptable-%E2%80%9C-ramp%E2%80%9D

"Putin likely intends to annex occupied southern and eastern Ukraine…He will likely then state, directly or obliquely, that Russian doctrine permitting the use of nuclear weapons to defend Russian territory applies to those territories.”

I don’t know what has caused this highlighting.

Thank you MagicFox. I find that all harrowing but it definitely seems possible.

>I read there was a lot if pro russian sentiment in local authority circles and treachery at a very high level?

Perhaps. I don't know enough about this, but it looks like there was incompetence or collusion at certain levels.

Looking quickly at Oblast and other councils I'd estimate that between 1 in 5 and 1 in 4 seats were held by Russia sympathetic parties like Opposition Platform.

However it might just be easy to roll up the steppe-crossing roads from the south. The eventually abandoned advances to Kyiv got similar distances and sometimes further.

Anecdotally the very local Ukrainian administration remained 'loyal', generally stayed in post and did their best to keep services running. However, it now seems that Russian administrators are finally being installed (it wasn't part of the national decapitation plan) and moves are being made to introduce Russian currency, school curriculum and so on.

@Hillsmakeyoustrong · 13/05/2022 23:03
“Thanks @MMBaranova and @RedToothBrush . I have a contact there who said that the Russian invaders have now moved into every local administrative building not just the main ones in the centre and that they are becoming very entrenched. They are considering coming to the UK via Russia but do not want to go through the filtration process but they are also worried about being conscripted. He has an older teenage son.

One thing that we interpret as a positive is that the sound of explosions get nearer every day.

I have said that they will need courage whatever they decide. “

Their predicament about which way to turn must be unimaginably difficult.

If his son were conscripted how could he be expected to fight against his own people? Would he be supposed to either do that or be killed by them?

@BringBackCoffeeCreams : Johnson could only had to sign up to the mutual defense position with Sweden and Finland because of brexit as EU members already have a mutual defence clause

Fixed the Mail's interpretation for you

Well it's true. We could only sign a mutual defence pact because of Brexit.

We only needed one, because Brexit meant we had already got rid of the EU mutual defence pact...

**