Ukraine Invasion: Part 25

[MagicFox]

Hi all, another thread for supporting and sharing

Really be interested on what is behind that tweet TBH.

Media here (France) isn't mentioning Mr Macron currently being involved with negotiating with Putin and of course in any event he isn't in a position to offer concessions on Ukrainian sovereignty...

I think the last publicly reported phone call between the two happened just after Mr Macron's re-election a couple of weeks back, and it doesn't sound like it was a happy experience from the French end.
.
www.politico.eu/article/macron-putin-resume-phone-contact-but-remain-far-apart-on-ukraine-war/

Yes, and when the call in question was is rather important as with every week that passes it becomes less and less likely Ukraine will cede anything- because militarily their situation improves and news of what Russia does to civilians in occupied lands grows ever worse.

Hopefully we'll get more context for that then.

Turkey says they oppose Finland and Sweden joining NATO because of the er... terrorists in our countries

Very pertinent! My transcription of what Kaya Kallas said:

Russia is making the demands. Russia is threatening. And now if we think: “Oh let’s offer them something,” then they actually get something that they didn’t have before.

And I’ve quoted this foreign minister, Alexei [subtitles correct to Andrei] Gromyko, a Soviet-time foreign minister, several times, who said about the negotiation tactics of Soviet Union, three things:

First, demand the maximum. Do not ask, but demand something that has never been yours.

Second, present ultimatums. You know, threaten.

And third, do not give one inch in negotiations, because there will be always people in the West who will offer you something.

And then in the end you will have one third or even one half of something you didn’t have before.

So we have to keep that in mind all the time.

This could be really problematic as any NATO member can block Finland and Sweden accession is my understanding.

Yeah, its worrying. And kinda not cool to wait until after the announcement to say that.

I would imagine its been said privately within confidential NATO circles before now. Perhaps the view is that Turkey's concerns are not insurmountable.

Couple of hours after the UK sanctioned 12 members of Putin's inner circle and family inc his girlfriend, the Russian foreign ministry just advised against travel to the UK. Are the UK the first to sanction the girlfriend?

I thought the EU had already sanctioned her.

The story of a man and his dog who made the 225km journey from Mariupol to Ukrainian held Zaporizhzhia, mainly on foot.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/13/the-invisible-ukrainian-who-walked-225km-to-safety-from-mariupol?CMP=ShareiOSAppp_Other

He recounts the unbelievable cruelty and violence he witnessed and heard about plus the casual brutality 'You are boring me, maybe I should beat you?' From one Russian check point commander. But also some moments of kindness:

'Russian soldiers at one of the many checkpoints he would pass through gathered in the quiet of the evening to hear his story, stuffing cigarettes into his pockets for the onward journey and wishing him luck.'

One Russian soldier he met even suggested they stay in touch and he should stay with him when the war was over!

It's heartening that not all the Russian army are the thugs, rapists and murderers we're hearing about. I hope there are enough decent Russian soldiers to sway the course of this war and who will go home and tell the truth to their countrymen.

I see what you mean prettybird, the above post was beautifully split into digestible paragraphs but (on the app at least) MN have made it one big stodgy mass

I'm on a laptop and it looks nicely laid out to me so clearly an app issue.

Maxim Trudolyubov AT russiafiles
Russia’s warmongers in chief are around 70. In Ukraine, people in charge of defense and key government functions are in their 40s and 30s. The average age of Russia’s key officials is 64. For Ukraine, the average is 44. It’s a war between generations. Short thread

The elderly chekists are trying to destroy not only the new generation of the Ukrainian elite but also those relatively young Russians who could and should have replaced Putin’s generation. Putin is certain to fail at the first task, but he has already accomplished the second. 1/

Putin’s age cohort has destroyednot physicallythose who could have led Russia out of the hole the elderly checkists had dug. Some leaders like Navalny (Navalny will be 46 this year, Zelensky is 44) have been jailed. 2/

The checkists have either enslaved the next generation or driven them out of the country. Many Russians in their 40s and 30s either work in the service of the kleptocratic rulers or have gone into internal or external exile. 3/

In fact, age may not be an issue if leaders have experience building and managing projects, winning elections, and being held accountable by voters. That’s exactly the experience Ukraine’s current leaders have and Russia’s leaders lack. 4/

If Russians in their 40s and 30s possessing experience similar to their Ukrainian peers had been in power, we would not have seen this war. 5/

I still hope that Russians who are now in their 30s and 20s have a chance to come to power in my country. At some point. But I am not sure. 6/

In the West, a “war” between generations ostensibly pitting the young against the old in a quest for wealth is a common discussion point, particularly on the left. But look at this war… It’s when it gets existential. 7/ENDS

I really do think the war is the product of this is above all else tbh. Its something that is happening across the world. There is an old guard unwilling to pass to the next generation. Or a new generation unable to really take up power because they are blocked by institutionalised barriers based on age. I've seen in it voluntary organisation where those running it do it their way for decades and freeze out the generation below and then all leave at the same time with no transition, and leaving an almighty mess.

The UK is yet to cross this generational bridge too. My suspicion is that it will start to happen in full not long after the Queen dies. The appetite for reform and change is definitely there.

@DesdamonasHandkerchief 13/05/2022 15:21
The story of a man and his dog who made the 225km journey from Mariupol to Ukrainian held Zaporizhzhia, mainly on foot.

www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/13/the-invisible-ukrainian-who-walked-225km-to-safety-from-mariupol?CMP=ShareiOSAppp_Other

Thank you Desdemona for this account of this man’s extraordinary journey from Mariupol to Zaporizhzia on foot with his dog.

In spite of the horrors it is, as you say, heartening that not all Russians are thugs and rapists.

There have also been some accounts of Russians helping Ukrainians, who have been transported to Russia, to get out.

'Russian soldiers at one of the many checkpoints he would pass through gathered in the quiet of the evening to hear his story, stuffing cigarettes into his pockets for the onward journey and wishing him luck.'

I am certain that a lot of Russian soldiers are just like this. Like everyone they are just human.

The thing is there's no check on the people who behave badly.

I've seen in it voluntary organisation where those running it do it their way for decades and freeze out the generation below and then all leave at the same time with no transition, and leaving an almighty mess.

Seen this too.

Checks and balances need to be built into any organisational system so that it stays healthy-ish, and most established organisations need a mix of old blood for the experience and new blood for invigoration and change.

I'm convinced that Putin is trying to bring back the situation of his youth because he can't adapt and change.

There are some reports of Russian soldiers not wanting to keep fighting:

They were furious’: the Russian soldiers refusing to fight in Ukraine | Russia | The Guardian

www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/12/they-were-furious-the-russian-soldiers-refusing-to-fight-in-ukraine
amp.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/12/they-were-furious-the-russian-soldiers-refusing-to-fight-in-ukraine

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10812685/Mutinous-Russian-soldiers-stripped-tied-taken-away-trucks-feared-general.html

With reference to the above few posts, we need to be wary of the lie that generalisation is.

On the one hand we can say with all honesty that not every Russian soldier is a merciless killer (in practice I suspect behaviour traits runs in individual regiments) and yet we can say there is a friction in different societies between the old and the young.

www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/05/13/ukraine-news-russia-war-latest-finland-nato-putin-live/

As reported on this thread earlier but here naming the militants, this report says that President Erdogan of Turkey is against Sweden and Finland joining NATO saying they harbour Kurdish militants. He also says NATO made a mistake in allowing Greece to join.

Reading between the lines of your post, are you concerned that the UK is more at risk than the rest of the EU that has also sanctioned Putin's inner circle.

No I just found the swiftness of the announcement a bit weird, as if it was because of that. I thought, really?!

The comments about Greece really don’t surprise me given the long held and ongoing grievances between Turkey and Greece.

Red's last post really makes sense. And it makes me angry too! Hope lies with that younger generation, all across the globe - if they're allowed to grasp it by these absolute rotting bastards

The UK is yet to cross this generational bridge too. My suspicion is that it will start to happen in full not long after the Queen dies. The appetite for reform and change is definitely there.

The accession of Charles III (rather than the Queen passing) will be the trigger. Quite aside from 3/4 of the "U"K suddenly realising this is the ideal time to make a break for it (because independence is so easy to couple to losing the monarch).

The real reason the reported appetite for republicanism isn't as high as reality is because a lot of people (especially the young) have never stopped to think about it. The process of replacing the head of state can't help but highlight it and the uncomfortable questions it raises.

@Igotjelly looks like the EU hasn't already sanctioned her and UK is first

Russia to cut electricity supplies to Finland tomorrow according to Sky. Any ideas on what the impact of that will be?