Ukraine Invasion: Part 24

[MagicFox]

Welcome one and all and thanks again to everyone contributing

Suddenly the language makes sense. Putin is trying to conquer countries to build a literal empire, subjugated and ruled from the centre. So in his head, anyone opposing him must be building their own empire of the same ilk.

The concept of free association of independent, self-determining states is not something he's willing to grasp. And certainly not in front of his audience.

@ScrollingLeaves pm'd you. I thought afterwards that I was a bit dismissive of one of your links, which might have come over a bit rough

I have total respect for how steadfast the Quakers are in their beliefs.
But I do think they live in Cloud Cuckoo land.
Perhaps though, that is rather a lovely place to be.

@Ijsbear · 06/05/2022 10:33
@ScrollingLeaves pm'd you. I thought afterwards that I was a bit dismissive of one of your links, which might have come over a bit rough

Thank you, Isjbear but please don’t worry, I would have been interested by any reasons you gave.

I hope the world continues to have Quakers for a very long time. In war they do benefit from soldiers and armies protecting them but society and the different parts of society are interdependent and surely there are enough reserves to allow a small portion of the population to exist in the way they want to. They don't freeload; in the 2nd WW they worked on the land etc.

The ones I've met have had a gentleness but also a quite acute intelligence, though as you say RTB, a bit unworldly. But the world's a better place for them.

More sabotage?

The Vicalina market in #Vladikavkaz, #Russia is on fire.
twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1522507766165913602?t=XNY6wUD7QwVRrxX9RSxJ1Q&s=19

liveuamap.com/en/2022/6-may-admiral-grigorovichclass-frigate-of-the-russian-navy

Another ship "on fire"?

Olga Tokariuk

Russia will organise another propaganda stunt at the UN today to accuse Ukrainians of the crimes Russian soldiers themselves are committing in Ukraine. They invited foreign 'journalists' to testify: people who have been accused of peddling Russian disinformation for years https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1522504470311194625?t=81LyLM58EL0Ck1JG_04jiQ&s=19

twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1522504470311194625?t=81LyLM58EL0Ck1JG_04jiQ&s=19

There were numerous Twitter rumblings previously but those were unconfirmed. It seems that mainstream media are increasingly picking those reports up.

it was this link:

worldbeyondwar.org/30-nonviolent-things-russia-could-have-done-and-30-nonviolent-things-ukraine-could-do/

in theory Russia and Ukraine could have done all those things on that list. But most of them were never going to happen and just come over as a bit silly imo.

---

on the other hand: quakerconcern.ca/alternatives-to-military-violence/

In every violent conflict there are creative and caring local people working to look after each other. These efforts may not end wars, but they are certainly useful in overcoming the hatred and dehumanization that are so common during wars. Internationals need to find local peace actors and support them. Unarmed civilian protection is also increasingly recognized by the UN for its ability to keep people safe during armed conflicts.

There are also always unarmed civilians engaged in creative noncooperation with all systems of violence and injustice. In Ukraine right now many everyday people are bravely frustrating Russian military aggression through strategic noncooperation.1 We’ve been equally heartened to see many Russians taking great personal risks to oppose the war. Most people (including most journalists) completely misunderstand how powerful noncooperation is, so it doesn’t get the attention it deserves. It has frequently achieved far more than militaries.

A few good points there, including the one about the dehumanization that's taking place - Russians against Ukrainians and many westerners against Russians. Even on this thread people have talked about Russian animals. Yes, some of their behaviour is appalling. But they are still people and dehumanizing them means there is less way to get through to them. They are already demoralized and unhappy, and many are unhappy about their own actions in Ukraine. As a practical thing, establishing a connection might make them more inclined to refuse to fight.

The idea of passive resistance in the occupied towns and cities is also good. I wonder if Ukraine has put out stated guidelines for passive resistance? It is yet another tool in their fight.

The regiment are in a bunker designed to withstand a nuclear attack.

If they are planning a chemical attack on the bunker, they still have to get into the bunker to do it.

Chemical weapons will make it easier to get into the bunker, but its still unlikely to be plain sailing.

I do think a chemical attack this weekend is potentially likely (see my comments upthread about likely scenarios and Putin's options), but I still don't think the logistics of it will be easy.

The evacuation from Mariupol was being talked about yesterday and it was explicitly for anyone in Mariupol but there was a focus on civilians at the steel works and they were expected to make up a sizeable proportion. I think there was talk of about a hundred or so from the plant.

There's definitely a shift in focus on Russian news websites. Very little coverage of "special operation", but a lot more on the Evil West, cherry picking anything negative about us, a lot of articles about Orban calling oul embargo an economic suicide 🙄 and anything else that presents lack of unity.

I guess they are starting to realise that the mass of people knowing how badly the "special operation" is going is growing, so they're not bothering with trying to hide it so much. I think there's a growing discontent about growing inflation, on the general soil of shaky economy and poor standards of living to begin with, so they are trying to shift people's focus how it's all our fault (the Evil West that is), and how sanctions are hurting us much more than Russia - this is a really common line, has been from the start, but it's becoming more focused.

I think the latest is that this might be the ship that was hit yesterday, but there was a mistaken identity over which ship was hit.

Tim White AT TWMCLtd
A usually reliable news site in Odesa reports a different frigate of the Russia Black Sea Fleet was hit, presumably by a Ukraine missile.

Russian frigate project 11356P of the Burevestnik type, suffered explosions near "Snake Island"

https://dumskaya-net.translate.goog/news/u-zmeinogo-gorit-rossiyskiy-fregat-164010/?_x_tr_sl=uk&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

@Ijsbear -
06/05/2022 10:49
I hope the world continues to have Quakers for a very long time. In war they do benefit from soldiers and armies protecting them but society and the different parts of society are interdependent and surely there are enough reserves to allow a small portion of the population to exist in the way they want to. They don't freeload; in the 2nd WW they worked on the land etc.

I agree, the Quakers do not free load and they have an ethic to work very hard.

I also agree very much with what you say that the different parts of society are interdependent, and would add that sometimes those very differences can lead to filling what otherwise would have been a gap in society’s understanding. (They saw clearly that slavery was wrong before many others for example)

Ijsbear · 06/05/2022 11:01
about non violent alternatives to combat military violence quakerconcern.ca/alternatives-to-military-violence/
I agree is important to never dehumanise ( though difficult when thinking of Putin!)

That is what makes atrocities possible; it also demonises people no matter what they do, for example, Azov soldiers are nazis
in some cases apparently, yet have gone to find formula for a woman for her baby in the steel works, or one came back crying after shooting someone’s distressed dog at their behest.; been extraordinarily brave in defending UKraine to the last. Or even the Russian soldiers in Bucha who came into a house where a woman had been raped and took the rapist soldier away in stead of gang raping her too. There might be sparks of soul even in the worst. The story posted on here of the exchanges between the family who lived with four Russian soldiers in the bunker was interesting too.

We here could all passively resist where we can- trying not to use heating or petrol. Send money to refugees and humanitarian aid. What else?

And as an example related to another issue, if people who can started to refuse to take any drugs for recreation, instead of feeling ‘cool’, and funded help for addicts, there might be fewer atrocities related to the drugs business.

The Russian "google" Yandex has one data centre outside Russia, in Finland, and the electric company cut off their electricity two weeks ago and all other electric companies they tried asking have refused to make contracts with them so they've been having to run off a diesel generator. They're not on the sanctions list so they didn't have to do this but still did.

twitter.com/sergiykyslytsya/status/1522331706308452354?s=21&t=hEFK5r4XcClo3HlI4EKAag

The Ukrainian rep on the UN Sergiy Kyslytsya, a man who says what he thinks, really had a go at the Russian UN counterparts as part of his speech at the Security Council

He does say what he thinks doesn't he? :D

The total combat losses of russian enemy in #Ukraine from 24.02 to 06.05 were approximately:
personnel - about 24900 (+200) liquidated
tanks ‒ 1110 (+8)
APV ‒ 2686 (+35)
artillery systems – 502 (+3)
MLRS - 171 (+2)
Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 83 (+0)
aircraft – 199 (+3)
helicopters – 155 (+0)
vehicles and fuel tanks - 1926 (+19)
boats / cutters - 11 (+1)
UAV operational-tactical level - 324 (+12)
special equipment - 38 (+0)
cruise missiles - 90 (+1)
General Staff of the Armed Forces of #Ukraine

ISW Key Takeaways

Russian forces continued ineffectual offensive operations in southern Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts without securing any significant territorial gains in the past 24 hours.

Ukrainian officials and military officers confirmed that Russian forces have breached the Azovstal facility itself and confirmed that Ukrainian forces are losing ground. Russian forces will likely capture the facility in the coming days.

Ukrainian offensive operations around Kharkiv likely intend to push Russian forces out of artillery range of Kharkiv city, force Russian units to redeploy from the Izyum axis, and potentially threaten Russian lines of communication.

Russian forces conducted limited offensive operations toward Zaporizhia City but did not conduct any attacks in Kherson and Mykolaiv oblasts in the last 24 hours. Ukrainian forces claimed to recapture additional territory west of Kherson, but ISW cannot independently confirm any advances.

The regiment are in a bunker designed to withstand a nuclear attack.
If they are planning a chemical attack on the bunker, they still have to get into the bunker to do it. Chemical weapons will make it easier to get into the bunker, but its still unlikely to be plain sailing.

If this regiment of defenders at the steel works is simply in a network of tunnels and catacombs that by chance might be strong enough to withstand a nuclear attack, period, then yes, chemical weapons/even CS gas are a major threat. OTOH if we are talking about a modern era bunker designed to be resistant to a nuclear attack then they their nature almost certainly provide some/lots of protection from chemical weapons...

In any event, agreed, such a postulated attack would not something that would be plain sailing, even for the aggressors.

Certainly given the performance of Russian equipment so far I wouldn't want to be a Russian conscript relying on Russian NBC kit tasked with following up such an attack, especially if any persistent agents get used.

Hopefully this will remain in the realms of speculation.

According to the general director of the Azovstal steel plant there are 5 fully working proper nuclear bunkers under the steel works. There are 36 in total with capacity for 12,000 people but the others haven't been restored yet.

frontierindia.com/all-about-bomb-shelters-at-the-azovstal-steel-plant/

Interesting, hadn't see that info so thanks.

@Ijsbear · 06/05/2022 12:02
Ukrainian officials and military officers confirmed that Russian forces have breached the Azovstal facility itself and confirmed that Ukrainian forces are losing ground. Russian forces will likely capture the facility in the coming days.

I can’t bear it. I wish some Gurkhas could be slipped into the tunnels, behind the infiltrating Russians, (if the Ghurkhas were willing.)

https://bylinetimes.com/2022/05/06/inside-the-fight-against-the-human-trafficking-sweet-shop-on-ukraines-border/
Inside the Fight Against the Human Trafficking ‘Sweet Shop’ on Ukraine’s Border
Chris York

This is really scary.

There are currently a lot of problems with the trains due to Russian attacks on the network a couple of days ago.

This will make it harder for some to get out.