Ukraine Invasion: Part 24

[MagicFox]

Welcome one and all and thanks again to everyone contributing

Johnson off to Sweden today to sign a joint military defense pact, bringing Sweden in under the UK nuclear umbrella.
Expected that a similar pact with Finland will follow shortly.
The US and France have intimated a similar arrangement, but this is the first signed pact.
Admission to NATO for the two countries may take some months to achieve.
Source taken from the Spectator.

Magic 😮😮who is that general? Where is he? That's huge!

This all has scary pre-world war vibes and im trying to imagine what that would look like with all the different ways of fighting now. Assuming non nuclear obvs which doesn't need outlining. I guess the key questions revolve around the stances of China, ME, Africa etc

@TiddyTidTwo Ivashov. No idea where he is now and have tried to find out. Can't believe how it's not been circulated before as it was prior to the invasion

A signed pact is very significant, must better than just verbal assurances. That is good.

Excellent news Kontikki.

Has this been posted? One of the commanders in Azovsteel openly criticises their government for not helping them get out.

I’m really not sure it does. It’s undoubtedly going to be a consequential war for the future of Europe and for the West’s relationship with Russia but at this stage it’s still very much contained within Ukraine and doesn’t look like it will imminently spill over.

I think China saying explicitly that the conflict must not be allowed to become an existential threat to global peace is interesting because they’re the one country that may be able to sway Putin’s thinking of things start to escalate.

Yes that is definitely reassuring re China and their stated agreement with Macron that this must not impact global peace. Obviously France's position is not entirely in accordance with other EU countries and there seems to be a split emerging that leaves France and Germany on one side. But, yes, China are such a key player here and I hope that their self interest leads them to come down in the right place.

@MagicFox · 11/05/2022 06:20
Wait, what is this I've just woken up to?

“WE, the OFFICERS of RUSSIA, demand that the President of the Russian Federation, renounce his CRIMINAL policy of WAR… and RESIGN...”—signed Ivashov, Colonel-General"

twitter.com/bryanee_parker/status/1524205659327057921?s=21&t=fveqnLofDsMJy-XeUVK-iw

Even though that was written pre- invasion, and it did not turn out to be a message about an imminent end to Russia’s aggression, I found it, and the previous article against the proposed invasion by another Colonel which Parker linked, very helpful indeed to read:

For me this is the first real appraisal of Russia’s relationship to Ukraine and NATO coming from a knowledgeable Russian that does not come across as propaganda one way or another. It read like complete fact check of every factor that you can think of - military especially, but also political and social.

Many thanks MagicFox. Having read it things fall into place in my understanding.

I take it more as a negative tbh. I am expecting France, Germany and China to try and force a settlement on Ukraine in which Putin makes gains and there are few assurances long term for Ukraine.

Worth remembering the UN permenant members of the security control who have the most influence are UK, US, France, China and Russia because of the VETO.

The other current members are
Albania, Brazil, Gabon, Ghana, India, Ireland, Kenya, Mexico, Norway, United Arab Emirates

Of those I think Ukraine can only really count on Albania and Norway to fight its corner. Ireland is liable to follow France's lead. The others all have their own agendas which aren't necessarily aligned with Ukraine's.

I agree @ScrollingLeaves - and what I liked about it was the way it just cuts through all the Russian propaganda about existential threats and reveals that to be a total mirage. And they know it in Russia!

@RedToothBrush yes I hear you. It's really short term-ist thinking though. So frustrating, you'd hope they'd see that they're just pushing the issue further down the road

@ChardonnaysBeastlyCat · 11/05/2022 09:07

Has this been posted? One of the commanders in Azovsteel openly criticises their government for not helping them get out.

No, it hasn’t even though it was a 2hr zoom call with journalists last Sunday. Newspapers only said a little too. I thought maybe people were troubled by the criticism, or trying to keep the Azov soldiers in the background to help evacuations of civilians.

I thought of posting it but thought if others hadn’t there might be a reason.
They also said not all civilians were out, which has taken a while for news outlets to report.

The commander who speaks English well has been fighting Russians since 2014 I think. He lost an eye and an arm but has a prosthetic arm and is still fighting. He said they were the real NATO for Ukraine.

Hopefully this passes the Senate without any problems.

The Kyiv Independent
@KyivIndependent
⚡️U.S. House of Representatives votes 368-57 to pass nearly $40 billion military and humanitarian aid package to Ukraine.

The bill will go next to the Senate for a vote before it can be signed into law by U.S. President Joe Biden.
3:49 AM · May 11, 2022·Twitter Web App

‘I take it more as a negative tbh. I am expecting France, Germany and China to try and force a settlement on Ukraine in which Putin makes gains and there are few assurances long term for Ukraine.‘

God I hope not. That would be so dangerous for the rest of Eastern Europe as he is certain to come back again and try another part of former territory. Surely Germany wouldn’t want this?

That Russian general MagicFox sent a link to earlier, who was writing reasons against the invasion before the war, said Russia was disintegrating. One of the reasons he mentioned as adding to that was the falling birth rate. (Kalim Galeev wrote about the falling birth rate too.) The general pointed out how this will only get worse both in Russia and Ukraine owing to the massive loss of young men’s lives there will be in both countries.

His English was good, I thought they were using an interpreter to start with, but then he used “crumble” for rubble and “cabinets” for offices, it made me smile despite the grim reality of it.

I thought it was odd, and Dermot Mulroney seemed taken by surprise by what was said.

They're in a terrible situation, I can understand the p*ed offness on display, their choices and options are utterly dire but I'm not sure quite what he/some think the answer is.

They're so embedded behind the frontlines it's unlikely that the Ukraine armed forces can breakthrough to get to them quickly.

They are also by definition combatants...they don't automatically get the sort of protections civilians might just get under the various conventions the Russians may or may not be prepared to observe.

The only hope might be (I'm speculating) something along the lines of some form of POW exchange. The issue for the Russians would have with that is whether or not they would like a bunch of conscripts handed back in return for allowing a very hardened bunch of fighters out, return to Ukrainian lines and then potentially do an about face and re-join the fighting.

That's weird DesdemonasHandkerchief, quite a few lines are crossed out on the PC.

I think that the Azov steelworks have been such a thorn in Putin's side that the combatants have no chance.

Putin is highly vindictive.

Guterres pulled out all the stops - and at the back of my mind I wonder if there was a quid pro quo somewhere - to even get most of the civilians out. I fear that there is no chance for the combatants. Zelenskyy looked into getting them out but they just do not have the heavy weoponry.

Unless NATO went in, there is no chance to my mind. If NATO did go in we'd be in a whole different ball game. It's one that personally I hope the Powers That Be consider now; at the beginning it might have inflamed things very badly but the war is settling into a grind and actually Russia -is- becoming more isolated and I think myself that China would be less inclined to get involved by supplying Russia now.

It's not only the Steelworks though. There are many many people trapped in Mariupol.

By the end of the year, more than 10,000 people may die in Mariupol from diseases and intolerable conditions. Now there are 150-170 thousand people in the city. This was stated by the mayor of the occupied city Vadym Boychenko.

The invaders turned Mariupol into a medieval ghetto. Therefore, the mortality will be corresponding. Without medicines and medical care, the restoration of water supply and a working sewage system, epidemics will break out in the city.

Now most of the population is made up of old and sick people. Without proper conditions, mortality among vulnerable categories will increase significantly. Part of Mariupol residents from nearby villages returned to the city, because the occupiers do not let them move to the territory of free Ukraine.

Our people are in mortal danger. Therefore, a complete evacuation of the city is necessary.

Wasn't the Azoz battalion held up as the predominant 'Nazi' battalion?
Sadly I can't see any mercy forthcoming for the fighters trapped in the steelworks from Putin, he's probably thinking wiping out this battalion could be presented to the Russian people as a major step towards his stated intention of the 'de-natzification' of Ukraine. Plus as pp said he's not fool enough to swap Russian POW's soldiers, who he's shown a callous disregard for thus far, for the battle hardened 'Heroes of Azovstal'.
I'm also hoping for a miracle for the trapped fighters but any way out for them would have to come from the Ukrainian side and I'm just don't think they can get close enough to affect a rescue.

Delurking to reiterate others' thanks for these threads. I've been following since the beginning - they are my go-to; the first thing I read in the morning and the last thing I read at night. Thanks so much to all contributors.

I have a question. Russia seems to be leaning heavily on its being able to fire into southern Ukraine (Odesa, Mariupol) from its navy in the Black Sea. I realise Turkey has closed the Bosphorus to warships from all countries (except those that have a base in the Black Sea) - as per the Montreux Convention. I just wondered if this measure is absolutely dictated by the convention; is it something Turkey has to do in time of war, or that it has a choice to do?

I realise that we wouldn't want Russia to send more naval ships there, so the closure is in that respect a good thing, but it also means no one can send any counter to the Russian vessels firing from there. I don't know what such a counter might look like BTW - although it wouldn't be 'boots on the ground' in Ukraine, as the sea is no one's territory. It's beyond dismaying that the invaders can fire from international waters, destroying the south coast of Ukraine, and no one else can stop them and we all just have to watch on helplessly.

I know a no-fly zone isn't an option over Ukraine, but could there be an acceptable equivalent for the Black Sea? Some sort of policing set-up? Probably not. Sorry if this is a stupid question, but thanks for humouring me.

UK PM to discuss European security with Sweden and Finland's leaders

The UK's prime minister will visit Sweden and Finland later today to discuss the war in Ukraine, as both nations consider whether to join the Nato alliance.
Boris Johnson will meet the leaders of both countries during a 24-hour trip on Wednesday.
His official spokesman said the visit was also about the "security of Europe more broadly".
Support for joining Nato has increased in both Sweden and Finland since Russia invaded Ukraine, despite their long history of pursuing policies of military neutrality to avoid conflict with regional powers.
Both countries are expected to decide within days whether to join the alliance.

For those people who enjoy listening to the radio or podcasts regarding this invasion and current events.

I strongly advise you to check out Times Radio. Some excellent and reassuring interviews with experts on the current issues we are facing.

https://www.youtube.com/c/TimesRadio1/videos