Ukraine Invasion: Part 22

[MagicFox]

Here we are again

Oh I dunno, my falling boobs could definitely take out Putin.

I saw a comment on twitter (I know, sorry)! Which said that Russia has nukes that are capable of travelling undetectable? How likely is this to be true?

😂😂😂

The freedom we enjoy is wonderful and we need to appreciate it more, it’s a thing that many are willing to give their very lives for just a taste of.

I think this is a good point and I hope that we arrive at a place where some good can come of this in the sense that we wake up a bit to the values and freedoms we have taken for granted and must defend.

What good would it do Russia at this point?

@katem98 I found this podcast useful on the nuclear fear this morning as it answered my question above a bit: podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/deep-state-radio/id1245002955?i=1000558803337

I'm going to take a look at this @MagicFox , thank you

AFAIK, this system is under development as opposed to being ready to use. I think the US and China are working on something similar. I'll try to find a source though!

It's so gross isn't it that these weapons are being developed / exist. I hate that they will just proliferate as a result of this crisis rather than there be any kind of movement towards decreasing them, though there are lots of organisations lobbying for that

We have satellites and planes / UAVs constantly tracking, spying and recording. We read comments that GCHQ is especially effective at intercepting and tracking communications. Nobody asks too many questions as we probably might not like the answers, but I doubt our lives are really private anymore. I don't care about that really. In the security context our personal info is not useful. All systems are pointed towards Russia, to capture, assimilate and understand the chatter from the generals deep inside the Motherland to the officers and soldiers in the theatre. To destroy their plans of rape, murder and genocide.

What astonishes me is the speed of reconnaissance, capture and relay of info to the UA and its immediate and effective results on the battlefield. This confirms a systemic integration of western and UA intelligence over a period of time. This war is not accidental. It has been coming a long time and US intel has been bang on. I am even starting to wonder whether other events over the last couple of years, especially timing, were driven by up to date intel to keep the decks clear for what is now happening.

I am also impressed by the UA personnel. Reading some of their accounts, it is clear they are working as a well-motivated, deeply inter-dependent team. Listening to the language employed, these are intelligent soldiers at every level. They understand how to organise and how to lead. About three weeks into this war, I watched an interview of a young soldier - about 21 - who gave up university to stand in the front line to defend the first wave. Never have I seen shoulders that broad and eyes that old in someone so young. I cannot find that interview now, but I just hope to god he is still alive today. The youngest and bravest are needed most.

When this war created by Russia is over, what comes next is never going to be easy. Ukraine may be up against it every day - like Israel is today. There will always be someone somewhere at every sunrise who wants to destroy it and erase the identity of Ukraine and its people.

What matters now is whose side we are on.

Must say if it’s anywhere near as effective as the rest of their equipment I’m not particularly concerned about it being genuinely undetectable.

Incidentally just watching Outside Source on BBC and she asked what the sense of Putin’s comments is in Kyiv. The reply was basically no one is giving it any credence, the assumption is that Putin is feeling peeved about the meeting yesterday as well as changes in things like Germany’s position. He seemed very non-plussed about it all.

Yes, this is something that isn't being considered, Russia can go on making shells and missiles forever more, they are rich in raw materials.. which someone somewhere will buy.

So if we just keep arming the Ukrainians, without lifting the Black Sea blockade and ease Ukraines economic woes, then this war will carry on for ... god knows... Putin wont quit.

11 years in and the Syrian conflict is still bubbling away and Russia fought there for 5 years! & Two bites of conflict in Chechnya.

@Igotjelly I keep seeing references to 9th May. Why is this such an important date for Russia?

@dreamsiclex Victory Day. Marks the day Nazi's surrendered in the 2nd world war

It’s Victory Day and marks the day the Nazis Surrendered to the Soviet Union. It’s very symbolic in Russia and much thought to be the date Putin had initially planned to declare victory in Ukraine.

I believe the annual parades, where they show off all their nukes etc. has been moved to this date too this year.

No he won't quit the killing and seems to have endless appetite for it!
Negotiations have to end this war. Other wise NATO just need to get on with it. This way is utterly futile. British tactic is definitely about wearing down the Russian supplies which is why we keep getting threatened with nukes.

the assumption is that Putin is feeling peeved about the meeting yesterday as well as changes in things like Germany’s position. He seemed very non-plussed about it all.

I wonder if he's got to the stage of thinking that what he believes is the same as what actually is? If that's the case no wonder he's struggling, coming up against the fact that other people are acting out of the roles he planned for them.

Russia can go on making shells and missiles forever more Not necessarily. They are struggling to make tanks, struggling to make cars, struggling with all sorts.

A lot of factories for military and civilian stuff depend on parts that are only made in the West at the moment.

Let's see, Russia is struggling with

• the war
• repression of its own people - it's going to need to recruit a lot more secret service people I suspect.
• economic sanctions that are not conclusive but are wearing
• brain drain of IT workers to the point they are trying to bribe them to stay
• tens or low hundreds of thousands other middle class workers leaving
• Sourcing parts for their factories
• The really quite extreme loss of respect world wide considering their military un-prowess and performance on the battlefield
• The slow erosion of the West having any faith in what he says. How do you know he's lying? His lips are moving. Other leaders in other countries will be taking note too
• internal purges

I'm sure there are many more areas I've missed here. What a disaster for Russia.

A Russian mum at school gate said she'd like to return to Russia later to help rebuild the mess created there and be part of a moderate movement. I honestly didn't know how to respond to that. Putin is a disaster for Russia and the World.

They can make them very hard to detect and intercept by virtue of speed and using decoys but make them actually undetectable? Very very very unlikely with current technology

Oil ban - BBC

potential announcement on EU oil ban coming next week.

Mumsnet’s new linking system is good when it works but shit 99% of the time 😑

Ok so definitely off on a tangent here but I've just read today's Odesa journal which states that more and more russian troops are trying to get out of fighting. Deserting, self mutilating. I remember asking my contact in Odesa how easy it was for the opposition to defect and he said there weren't really the mechanisms in place. Are we missing a trick here? A house divided will fall etc. Why isn't this something that isn't being facilitated?

H I Sutton AT CovertShores
Update Two boats travelling very fast across northern Black Sea earlier today, direction towards south-western Ukraine. Possibly Russian Navy Raptor or BK-16/18 assault boats (like Swedish CB-90), The red at the bow is a parallax effect because they are moving so fast

Some debate on twitter about this and whether it means anything or nothing.

The guy who posted the above also retweeted this earlier today, so clearly although he's seen something, he isn't sure something will happen.

The Lookout AT The Lookout N
On developments in Transnistria/Moldova, I believe this is Russia creating noise and mischief just because they can. The Rus forces there, a few battalions, represents no real threat so in main I view this as a distraction. Also, any amphib op is highly unlikely at this stage

I believe there is roughly 12000 Russia troops in Moldova.

I’ve seen murmurings (unverified) that Liz truss has already paired down her call for war planes to calls for plane parts to be sent to Ukraine. Not sure what came out in her speech at mansion house this evening but it looks like it may have been changed a little.

Olga Tokariuk AT olgatokariuk
In the occupied Kherson region, Russians have created a prison camp on the territory of a pre-trial detention center where 300 Ukrainian activists and war veterans are being held. According to Ukraine's defense intelligence, people are interrogated, beaten and tortured there
https://gur-gov-ua.translate.goog/content/na-okupovanykh-terytoriiakh-masovo-vykradaiut-cholovikiv-pryzovnoho-viku-popovniuiut-obminnyi-fond-ta-hotuiutsia-do-9-travnia.html?_x_tr_sl=uk&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Translation

Large-scale "filtration measures" are being carried out in the enemy-occupied territories of Kharkiv, Zaporizhia, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Luhansk, and Donetsk regions. The victims of the occupiers are often men of military age. First of all - ATO / OOS veterans, former military and law enforcement officers, pro-Ukrainian activists.

It is known that more than 300 pro-Ukrainian activists and ATO / OOS veterans are being interrogated and tortured in the premises of the Kherson pre-trial detention center.

A filtration camp has been set up in the village of Velyka Lepetykha in the Kherson region. Recently, about 400 Russian servicemen dressed in Rosguard uniforms arrived there. They search for and detain men of military age. The detained Ukrainian men are being taken out en masse in the direction of the occupied Crimea.

The main purpose of such actions is to "replenish the exchange fund". Ukrainian hostages are planned to be exchanged for Russian war criminals. Even if Ukrainians did not take part in the 2022 hostilities.

It is also possible to organize propaganda "victory parades" with the participation of detained Ukrainians. According to the information received, they may try to pretend to be "prisoners of war" and take them through the streets of occupied cities. Similar events took place in Donetsk in 2014. Then, after numerous tortures, Ukrainian heroes were forced to walk through the central street of Donetsk, where they were subjected to bullying and humiliation.

We remind you that such actions of the Russian authorities are another war crime. The organizers will face the inevitable punishment.