INTEL:
Shashank Joshi AT shashj
Another incredibly detailed report by AT Jack_Watling
and Nick Reynolds drawing on extensive interviews with Western and Ukrainian officials. Zaluzhnyi advisor: "anti-tank missiles slowed the Russians down, but what killed them was our artillery." Intel=key.
"Eventually the Kremlin realised that pushing more forces south would not lead to progress. So long as they were moving along the same MSRs they would suffer heavily from artillery." Retreating forces "put under a withering and sustained barrage"
"Exact stockpiles of [cruise & ballistic missiles] are not available but as the war has progressed Ukrainian officials have noted a downgrading of the weapons systems employed for a range of mission sets, incl reversion to Grad-1 systems off the main axis"
"The authors physically inspected one of these computers recovered from a crashed 9M727 during fieldwork in April...Of the seven socket attachment points allowing data to be moved through the heat shield...six are all products of US companies."
"Institute of Radio-Engineering & Electronics...conducted an examination of communications architectures in Russian mil vehicles...In [IL-76] comms. suite alone it identified 80 components that could not be replaced with manufactured parts in Russia"
"Many components are dual-use...Russia has established mechanisms for laundering these through third countries. Restricting access...likely means preventing export to countries such as India of goods that are in some instances used for civilian purposes."
Michael Weiss AT Michaeldweiss
“The U.S. gave Ukrainian forces detailed intelligence about exactly when and where Russian missiles and bombs were intended to strike, prompting Ukraine to move air defenses and aircraft out of harm’s way, current and former U.S. officials told NBC News.”
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/us-intel-helped-ukraine-protect-air-defenses-shoot-russian-plane-carry-rcna26015
U.S. intel helped Ukraine protect air defenses, shoot down Russian plane carrying hundreds of troops
Ukrainian forces have used specific coordinates shared by the U.S. to direct fire on Russian positions and aircraft, current and former officials tell NBC News.
That near real-time intelligence-sharing also paved the way for Ukraine to shoot down a Russian transport plane carrying hundreds of troops in the early days of the war, the officials say, helping repel a Russian assault on a key airport near Kyiv.
It was part of what American officials call a massive and unprecedented intelligence-sharing operation with a non-NATO partner that they say has played a crucial role in Ukraine’s success to date against the larger and better-equipped Russian military.
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“There has been a lot of real-time intelligence shared in terms of things that could be used for specific targeting of Russian forces,” said a former senior intelligence official familiar with the situation. The information includes commercial satellite images “but also a lot of other intelligence about, for example, where certain types of Russian units are active.”
Ukraine continues to move air defenses and aircraft nearly every day with the help of American intelligence, which is one reason Russia has not been able to establish air dominance. In some cases, Ukraine moved the targeted air defense systems or planes just in time, the officials said.
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The CIA is also devoting significant resources, current and former officials say, to gathering intelligence with the aim of protecting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, whom the Russians want to kill. The agency is consulting with the Ukrainians on “how best to move him around, making sure that he’s not co-located with his entire chain of command, things like that,” a U.S. official said.
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The U.S. military and the CIA began seeking to deepen their relationships with Ukrainian counterparts after Russia seized Crimea in 2014. The CIA first helped Ukrainian services root out Russian spies, the former senior official said, and then provided training and guidance. The U.S. military also trained Ukrainian soldiers.
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One Western intelligence official noted that it’s not only the intelligence that has proven decisive — it’s the performance of the Ukrainians in using it. The source said Ukrainians have fought the Russians with agility and courage, and when they have received actionable intelligence, they have moved with astonishing speed.