Ukraine Invasion: Part 22

[MagicFox]

Here we are again

And the Indians are quoting the Finns and the Swedes!

www.newindianexpress.com/world/2022/apr/25/amid-russia-ukraine-war-sweden-finland-to-apply-to-nato-report-2446412.html

Ok I read the Iltalehti article now, which seems to be where all this talk is stemming from, and all its really saying is that the Swedish government has asked the Finnish government to make their NATO applications together, not that they have actually decided to make them yet. Just like with all rumours, along the line its got embellished. I don't think we'll hear of a decision until next week at least, though maybe they're moving faster.

In the toolkit of every good Neo Nazi planning an assassination. A (new looking) swastika flag, an SS deaths head symbol and a photo of Hitler. Sheesh.

@RedToothBrush I do understand re Millennial, ask those of us born early 60s what we think about being referred to as 'Boomers'.

Evening folks, flying visit. You have all been busy today I see.

@ScrollingLeaves Generally yes, different calibre. Wikipedia has some good articles:
105mm - basically you can pick up a round with your hands and load it. Lower range, but destructive nevertheless. Towed guns, likely to be used tactically in urban/semi-urban conditions. Can be flown in by helicopter.

155mm - wider application, more powerful and destructive. Think of tanks as to many they look similar, but serve different purposes. Can fire small nuclear rounds.

There should be lots of reserves in many Nato countries, but it would be interesting to know how much commercial freight activity there has been just north of Banbury recently.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/105_mm_calibre
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/155_mm_calibre

Russian does have mostly 152mm, but over the years developed other calibres which they phased in and out.

Then there are MLRS on both sides ("steel rain").

The other point is that if the West buy up all this Russian/Soviet spec equipment and munitions so that Ukraine can use it - it both pushes up the world price for it and it means there is less of a supply for Russia to buy up too.

If things continue long term, then Ukraine can slowly switch over to NATO spec stuff as they get training and production gets ramped up. But Russia who can not manufacture, buy Soviet Spec munitions anymore and may struggle to find alternative systems from a third party (especially if you need to also train with them).

Both points are valid. But my bet is on Nato kit with a 'best use by' date is sold to Ukraine by an IOU in exchange for first dibs on rebuilding and infrastructure, paid for out of Ukranian steel, wheat, minerals. Catan.

Inventories are emptied and new stock, different kit, Starstreak can stock the shelves for the next war.

Remember - war is business and the US is the only Masterclass.

@RedToothBrush , my apologies. I had not heard of the Xiennials! Either way, your microgeneration is shaking up the world....

Which is a sign of poor leadership because a successful organisation is down to its people. What leader sends it bravest and most skilful people to their deaths? That is what the Japanese did and lost 3,000 pilots for little naval gain.

You want pilots to come back, collaborate and train youngsters. You want pilots to make themselves redundant not decorate the back of a coin.

Unverified but could be believable

Igor Kossov @ IgorKossov

In Zaporizhia, interviewing folks and officials. I've been told that in one area, 60 Russians handed in their weapons and asked to be allowed to stay in Ukraine. In another area, about as many Russians were killed by civilian resistance. Sounds like they're having a hard time.

Targus, poor leadership indeed but they have a deadline to meet.

I could 'drone' on for some time about rounds and fuses, but you have captured it. Delay the fuse just a fraction of a second and it will explode 8 foot underground and shake the ground like sugar in a sieve which means Russian defensive trenches are filled in. You can also fire smoke and if need be splintex which is medieval though I do not think it has been used since Vietnam or Korea. But I see it could be needed now if it comes down to very close combat around buildings.

Not seen Caesar, but it looks like it would fit a niche role in usurping Russian dug in defensive positions.

The worst is yet to come.

Indeed. Fools rush in.

Or Russian fools? 🤔

Reuters reporting that Poland has confirmed that it has sent tanks to Ukraine.

Training aside, it is 96 hours from the US inventories to Ukraine, via Stuttgart.

A few folks suggested I've been "bold" in some of my predictions accompanying the analysis I've provided on AT CNN regarding this conflict.

Beyond tactical assessments, there are 2 primary reasons I've said Ukraine would win this fight.

Here's a short thread on why I say this.

Reason 1:

Conventional joint & combined arms operations are hard. Real hard. Exceedingly hard.

Coordinating actions of tanks, infantry, artillery, engineers, air defense, air support, naval opns, amphibious landings, special opns & logistics support is tough.

Doing so takes intense training of individuals in their specific skills, exercises that build the capabilities of interprofessional teams who pull theose skills together, the understanding of complex equipment & doctrine, communicating intent...and great leadership.

It also takes a vision, planning, exercises, and supervised execution using a transformational (versus transactional) leadership approach.All this takes time, determination, & repetitious training.

But all of this develops develops teamwork, trust, loyalty, & camaraderie.

Good militaries understand all this, and good military leaders ensure it happens. Nations rely on leaders to ensure this exists for when the nation is threatened.

Less-than-good militaries put conscripts under arms, field equipment with inherent faults & allow corruption.

Any good military (or former military) leader can see all these things when assessing militaries. It's not that hard if one has experience "in the arena."

But the 2d reason I've been bold is because I had the chance to see how seemingly small things contribute to big failure.

Two vignettes:

Right after giving up command of Tank Brigade as a young colonel, I was assigned as the Commander of the Operations Group (COG, AT OPSGRPNTC) at our Army's National Training Center (NTC, AT NTCUPDATE)

At the NTC, we trained large units to prepare for combat.

As a Brigade Commander, I thought I was pretty good. But in training other Brigades, I realized just how much I didn't know.

When units train at the NTC (and our other training sites), they fight mock battles against a tough opposing force for a couple of weeks.

Every 24-48 hours, there's a "pause" in the operations with an "after action review" (AAR) showing the good & bad things the unit's doing.

Good units polish their good things, fix their bad things, and the battle resumes.

After 3 weeks units & their leaders are darned good.

Not-so-good units don't accept critiques, don't fix broken processes, repeatedly allow small issues to turn into big problems, and don't reflect on their own leadership failures.

After a few months on the Ops Group team, anyone can quickly tell good from bad units.

Beyond differentiating from good & bad units, or how tactics should be applied in successful maneuvers, the NTC Ops Group teams can almost always predict the results of any of the "mock battles" that are part of the scenario, before they even take place.

A few years after serving at the NTC, and after a combat tour, I was assigned as a new Brigadier General to command the Army's European training center at Grafenwoehr Germany.

They have a center similar to NTC, called the Joint Multinational Training Center AT HohenfelsJMRC

There, US & their allies train young soldiers, develop sergeants as leaders, exercise large formations in combined arms operations at the small unit level.

UA trained there & soon had their own training center at Yavoriv (AT JMTG_Ukraine)

UA had great soldiers & good units.

The few times I observed the RU army in training & exercises, or talked to their leaders, they didn't seem to be "good units."

Comparing the 2 armies-even w/ seemingly different quantity of equipment-the expectations seemed obvious.

The "next phase" of this illegal invasion will soon play out in E & S Ukraine.

The already exhibited RU organizational issues-lack of manpower in regenerated units, poor equipment, dysfunctional logistics, horrible leadership & low soldier morale-will only grow.

The UA will face challenges, too. Large scale conventional combined arms operations are even more difficult than less grand tactical fights we've seen so far.

Managing logistics across long spaces & incorporation of new, western-provided equipment will also prove challenging.

But I'll again be bold in saying Ukraine will persevere.

I hope that isn't seen as hubris, it's just an assessment based on my bias about who will best face the challenges of combined arms warfare & which is the learning Army.

@SecDef implied the same thing yesterday. 17/17

Above thread by Mark Hertling AT Mark Hertling wouldn't let me put in details before MN crashed it on my phone again.

And now a Moscow shopping centre on fire...

@Igotjelly so much cock waving all the time, by all these deranged old men. I see Russia again are saying they warned the US not to send more military aid to Ukraine and that they’re pouring fuel into the fire…that is the fire Russia started. Not really sure what the point in them even reiterating that “they warned the USA” is at this stage, I assume they’ll follow it up with some sort of random action but who knows

I think there is a danger in boot strapping lots of events together and creating a false pattern. The attacks on the oil depot and ammo hold in Bryansk were very clear, but there will be another major fire in Russia overnight and one in Europe too. But one is the largest country in the world and the other the most densely populated region so these events inherently happen. Reliable information is the most helpful.

Ahh, I was reading it as you! I've read your posts on this forum for years, so I'm used to your enlightening words and was only slightly more impressed at learning you were a Brigadier General. RTB's army would be a terrific force...

Quite! I went to a Chvrches concert not long ago and never migrated to Radio 2.

Thread here by Bryan Parker assessing the myriad possibilities re the fires:

https://twitter.com/bryanee_parker/status/1518466476474200064?s=21&t=rli3ujBCmcu-o7mps1NCeQ

@TargusEasting I do agree, have to remember that this kind of thing happens all the time just don't hear about it/pay attention to it but when it's being reported during this time the mind sees 2 plus 2 and jumps to 10. Still, a little part of me hopes.

I am about as far removed from being a Brigadier General as it gets! Believe me!!!

I couldnt command a roundabout in the playground never mind a company of soliders.

I think this has been asked but do you mind me asking who are the best people to follow on Twitter for updates? Trent Telenko? Anyone else worth following?

Last two tweets in that thread is the interesting one

Bryan Parker AT BryanEParker
I wanted to add another hypothesis. A Russian source on Telegram recently reported that FSB arrested some members of a pro-Ukraine "neo-nazi" organization operating in Russia. Even if we discount that the FSB achieved anything, it does indicate that there is at least one pro-Kyiv organization operating inside Russia (that is targeted by Moscow). This is interesting! If there is sabotage going on in Russia, we now have two possible sources: discontented Russians on the verge of rebellion or pro-Kyiv organized group(s).

I'm also reading various suggestions of 'radicalisation' within the Russian army happening and rumours of Russian soliders either surrendering or turning on others as dissatisfaction grows.

We have seen this talk of Z campaign and how there won't be a coup or revolution because no one is powerful enough / it hasn't enough support / theres too much of a crackdown.

Yet sabotage... I don't think we've had enough talk about this and how if there's internal Russian dissatisfaction and Ukrainian resistance there are multiple routes to opposition to the war which are unrelated and spontaneous.

Kamil Galeev has hinted at the end of internal regional uprisings which are more directed at the local governors rather than Putin as dissatisfaction rises sparked by the impact of sanctions.

If people are unemployed, being press ganged into the army, have no food and can't pay bills that anger is going to be directed one way or another.

At which point you starts to see unlikely alliances of convenience (your enemy is my enemy) and spontaneous acts of random violence if the opportunity arises.

Its the first signs of losing control of the situation (this is different from losing control of the country and its citizens btw - its about narrative writing or being led by events carried by someone else but yourself).

Imagine multiple people going full on 'Fall down' in despair as they lose everything. Not politically drive per say. More desperation driven. "How can i show THEM?"