Ukraine Invasion: Part 22

[MagicFox]

Here we are again

Checking in

www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-greece-year-caution-weapon-invasion-military/

I see an oil facility has now gone up in flames in Russia (Bryansk). It's still unclear what's going on with all these facilities imploding - I think this if the fourth in three days?! I hope it's saboteurs but it seems a bit frequent for that. Is corruption the best guess?

Putin's Easter appearance filmed separately and merged in:

twitter.com/golub/status/1518439970482044930?t=vcxurkFlt_nOfQQyhCrzZA&s=19

He’s clearly paranoid and mental

His cowardice compared with Zelensky’s courage.

They're setting up a new refugee centre in my town, just read in the local news this morning, and they use the more common model they use in Finland which is housing them in a block of flats with reception services providing the help they need e.g. paperwork, healthcare, access to language courses. This is the best way to house refugees in my opinion, they get their own space and can live properly but easy access to the services they need. They get reception centre money as well, not a lot but its enough for food and basic needs.

Such a relief that Macron won in France, I was very worried yesterday.

MN is being a pain in the backside on my phone this morning so I will try and copy and past source / tweets from my laptop later about this. This is quite significant, so I will summarise now.

Fires have broken out at an oil depot and a military base in Bryansk, Russia over night. Its about 100km from the border.

There is some speculation that its been targeted by Ukrainian missiles.

Now this may well be the case but there's also another explanation being touted.

Last week it was noted that Bryansk may be a target for some sort of false flag operation so a few people have been keeping an eye. Olga Lautman AT olganyc1211 is one.

She noted this being posted on social media 5 days ago
<<<<
Explaination: the families of Russian soliders based in Bryansk were quietly evacuated last week. Why?

Olga has been paying close attention to Russian media overnight and says that so far reporting of the fire is very muted but an investigation is underway. Its not a top story.

Next obvious question on this. If its a false flag, why would you attack your own oil depot?

It took me a while to get my head around this. It didn't initially make sense to me. However I can think of a few reasons. Oil isn't something Russia is necessary short of. But why so close to the border when they might need it for logistics and the war?

There are a few accounts (Canadian Ukrainian volunteer and tim white) offer an explanation of this. This particular oil facility doesn't necessarily seem to be for that type of thing. Instead its directly responsible for the flow of gas to Europe.

Phillips P OBrien has said its unlikely to be a false flag because you don't attack vital facilities in a false flag which definitely is fair point.

I reserve judgement at this point though because if it is a key point for supplying Europe I'd argue that Russia might want to destabilise Europe (oil is due to be cut off first - they get more money from gas) and it might be a way to scare Europe. Equally there is also a clear motivation for Ukraine to target this facility to take out revenue and logistics.

So did the Russians get wind of a plan to target Bryansk or was the military family evacuation it merely precautionary as it was deemed high risk?

At this stage, I don't think we can know for sure, but this one is likely to have some ramifications.

Keep your eyes on it.

Oh yes Bryansk is the 6th Mysterious Fire in Russia is about a week though.

@AlecTrevelyan006
That body language is awful. It reminds me of his walk through the Duma (?) about three months ago, past the politicians and other representatives. There is something immature about the way he holds himself. Not the ‘statesman’ he has portrayed himself to be. He is almost uncomfortable with his position in Russian society. It makes me wonder whether he is the mere orator - one thing he is good at - for others who control the decisions. I cannot imagine he has many true friends or reliable acquaintances. Really bizarre.

Just in:

Oliver Carroll AT olliecarroll
Moment of explosion (and what sounds like a missile flying) at Bryansk oil depot, apparently targeted by Ukraine this am. Spokesman for Russia’s defence ministry has promised revenge strikes in central Kyiv “which Russia has refrained from doing so far.”
Video footage of explosion attached to tweet

RTB - REMEMBER: who is currently in central Kyiv? Blinken and Austin.

He looks like an actor waiting in the wings about to go on stage from that footage. It makes his body language make sense if you think he is psyching himself up for that.

The photo.

Head of Ukrainian railways company says 5 railway station were hit with missiles in central and western Ukraine this morning

FWIW the Ukrainians may still have some Tochka-U ballistic missiles in their arsenal.

The Bryansk refinery complex is just (though it's tight) about within publicly quoted range of a Tochka-U if fired from Ukraine territory so missile strike is definitely on the list of possibilities.

He can't stand still for a moment can he, and this is a man who is trained to keep his body still and is aware of and controls every single body signal he emits.

I think he's still in charge judging by the body language of both him and Shoigu at that bad tableau they released a few days ago. But to me it -definitely- looks like he's a really ill man.

Stalin stayed in control right up until he died no matter how mad he was and Putin probably still has the loyalty/fear of the FSB despite the purges so my money is that he's in charge but being nudged by his close circle (I too hesitate to call them friends). As a total non-sequitur, I wonder if his mistress is still close to him!

Could it be that he is ill enough that he has only months left? (wishful thinking here).

The one thing I worry about Ukraine actually hitting Russia as opposed to false flag operations is that taking the war into Russia's borders is another step and might destabilize further a leader who looks increasingly off his rocker.

Reminder: Where are Austin and Blinken?

I agree - looks like someone doing a walk through or rehearsal before a speaking event. Can’t see the paranoia others see from this (and not from the lack of trying)

Would be v easy to know who shot this and if it wasn’t approved they might be v concerned for their safety. If anything it looks approved to me.

Sounds so much better than anything the UK has provided.
Even a nice hotel is still a hotel, you would want to be in your own space able to cook, do laundry etc.

It’s mentioned on the Putin podcasts how effectively he uses his physicality to convey control and power, probably as a result of his obsession with judo and his KGB training.
Putin is 69, as am I, and one’s body does start to fail as one reaches this age. Muscle strength and tone decline and the best one can do is try to slow it. If Putin is indeed ill as well he may be finding it very difficult to project the same image that he did ten years ago.
Disclaimer - I know there are 80 yo people who might claim their strength hasn’t declined at all. But most of us start to see a difference as we near three score years and ten.

Well Austin and Blinken travelled to Kyiv from Poland by train on Saturday.

It's reported Austen was heading to Germany next. How and when isn't reported.

Reuters news story of Austen/Blinken Kyvi visit (the link didn't show up in my previous post - (stupid upgrade) )

www.reuters.com/world/europe/blinken-austin-pledge-return-us-diplomats-more-security-assistance-kyiv-visit-2022-04-25/

Russian media also reporting this this morning (again mn is being a pain in the bum. There is an original news story linked to this but I shall quote).

This is a bit of a bizarre story. Odd.

In St. Petersburg, an explosion thundered on the stairs in a residential building
An unidentified device exploded under the door of a nine-story building in St. Petersburg

An explosion of an unidentified device occurred under the door of one of the tenants of a nine-story building in St. Petersburg, the windows in the entrance were broken, no one was injured, a law enforcement source told RIA Novosti.

According to the source, the young man who lived in the apartment allegedly belonged to the prankster community, but wanted to get out of it, after which they began to threaten him. He is alive, he is being examined by doctors.

I would imagine that Austen and Blinken are well out of Kyiv by now. They were u likely to have hung around and I would suspect the photo would have been released a good time after they’d left the area.

Ukrainian media are reporting that there has also been an incident on the railway near Bryansk in addition to incidents at the military and oil depots.

This photo being circulated but I can't verify when or where it was taken.

I've bee accused of a few things but being a trainspotter isn't on of them..however at a quick glance it look like the track bed has washed out in that railway image.

Could be a deliberate act I guess but just possibly down to a landslip/subsidence (note the marshy ground just beyond the tree line to right of picture).