I wasn't going to post this, but it links with a second tweet I've just seen so I think it worth while for a few reasons:
Canadian Ukrainian Volunteer @CanadianUkrain1
Regarding #Kherson:
I know everyone is eagerly waiting for the news of a full-scale offensive on Kherson, especially those who are IN occupied Kherson. We know things are not easy for you.
Having said that, the main difficulty is the terrain. Open horizon to horizon, with barely any defilades for infantry, let alone mechanized equipment. So the plan, for now, is simple - we continue to drain #Russian ammo supplies, equipment, deprive them of sleep at night, raid their lines, and in general degrade their combat ability until an opportunity presents itself. It always does.
Then, several things will happen at once, but discussing them here and now would be bad for business.
So you guys hold on, follow your local trustworthy information groups on Telegram, and stay alert. You are not forgotten.
The notable things for me, is the stress put on being patient and picking the right moment, rather than rushing in because of an emotional desire to. There's some speculation that the attack on the Moskva was planned for a while and they waited patiently until the right moment.
The second thing for me, isn't the logistics this time - although thats relevant and clearly where Ukraine is thinking strategically across all fronts, its the emphasis on the lack of sleep the Russians are getting.
Which brings me to this which I've just seen:
Jimmy @JimmySecUK
An intercepted conversation between a Russian contract soldier and a woman in Russia discussing extremely high losses the Russians are taking in Ukraine.
The soldier's regiment has apparently taken 600 casualties from a pre-war strength of 1000 men.
twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1516083508720160772
The conversation was apparently recorded in the Mykolaiv region (A lot of the counter offensives into Kherson are in the Mykolaiv region). There isn't a date on when it was recorded:
M: Our regiment has the biggest losses, dammit.
W: On our side?
M: Yes. Almost all gone... There were 1000 something people, its about 400 left of us.
W: Oh My! From Our Unit?
M: Yes. I already told this, dammit. When I entered the battle... As soon as fing popped out, I told them sort of 'cover me'. As I venture out, fking bullets fly over my head. I'm like 'Fk!, Get it? Sort of, they see me, but I don't see them. I'm like, 'its fked' and get fking back. Where we say, as soon as we left the place, a fking shell hit right that spot. Then, when we started to run, 'grad' started shelling. You know what 'grad', 'katyusha' [rocket launchers] are?
W: Yes, yes.
M: We started to run. Fking 'grad' starts to shell our asses! We fking managed to fking get away!
W: Oh my!
M: And then artillery is shelling us from there. On the other side, over the railway they run to the forest. So they are encircling us. They start fking shooting from there. I'm like, 'we're in a fking ring', I think.
W: Oh my!
M: I was fking running, I don't know, all the time.
W: At least, you can run fast. That's good.
M: I Fking hide, run, back and forth, cover, dammit. Let's say there were so many troops, shtloads of us, and me and a guy covered all out troops, dammit.
W: How are you, in general?
M: I am starting to go nuts.
W: Going mad?
M: I want to go home. It's like a wave hits me. By day, I'm ok, in the evening - it's sht. When the night comes, it's the worst.
W: Are you going to break or extend it [the contract]?
M: If we are going here for the second time, then - no. Fk it. I'll terminate the contact at once. I'm not going here second time.
Obviously this is explicitly pro-Ukrainian propaganda.
However I do think both of the above are interesting, especially when you put into the context of each other, the knocking out of the Moskva - which takes out a lot of Russian air coverage in the area (especially because the Ukrainians keep taking out Chornobaivka airfield) and that other report of the Russians from different units fighting each other.
It also explicitly represents the contract solider issue, which is thought to be lending itself to a formal declaration of war by Russia.
The Canadian Ukrainian Volunteer references depriving the Russians of sleep, to make them go nuts and you have a Russian bluntly spelling out how he's going nuts at night. Two sides to the same coin.
Now this could just be a deliberate strategy in propaganda for the Ukrainians purely to keep up morale and maybe buy a little time to regroup / ease public and political pressure to move in on Kherson.
However the other evidence seems to back up this being more than just propaganda, and is an incite as to what the Ukrainians are doing and how the Russians are coping with it (Also, flip it and you've maybe got Mariupol and some reasoning as to why many of the 36th felt that they had to surrender). Its a reflection not just of the physical tactics but the psychological ones.
I think I would have just read these and scrolled on, if they hadn't dovetailed together quite so neatly and also fitted with others jigsaw pieces.
It sounds to me like the Ukrainians might be waiting and seeing what happens and whether the Russians might break mentally before they do physically and perhaps have reason to think that may be imminent. There is also an awareness that Ukraine can't afford to just charge in, because its suicidal.
Further more it perhaps offers an glimpse as to why sending troops back to Ukraine who were withdrawn from the North is a) incredibly difficult in terms of numbers but more b) cos their heads have turned to jelly from combat experience and they are now 'ineffective' troops as a result.