Ukraine Invasion: Part 21

[MagicFox]

Another thread, thank you to all

@PestorPeston

I think posts can get hidden if they mention atomic, I did a few posts with links to IAEA and they got temporarily hidden.

I'll just add a few more buzz words to check this radiation, fall out, snigger

Nope!

@BringBackCoffeeCreams

My post is now unhidden. Order is restored.

Did you get an explanation?

Nope, no explanation.

@BringBackCoffeeCreams
“My post is now unhidden. Order is restored.”

I have just read it. That is informative.

Do you know why it was hidden? I couldn’t see any reason.

I'm BringBackCoffeeCreams but I'm incapable of working out how to change my name on my phone.

Ah, thank you FatCatThinCat

Sounds bad in Ukraine tonight.

Zelensky is saying the 2nd phase of the war has officially begun and the Russians are commencing their operation.

@RedToothBrush

Sounds bad in Ukraine tonight.

Zelensky is saying the 2nd phase of the war has officially begun and the Russians are commencing their operation.

Just more shelling or ground troops?

Both from what I can tell. Big push in the East. The Russians have advanced a good 20km in one area by the look of it.

Mykolaiv is getting hit HARD tonight too.

And there air raids right across the country at the moment.

I suspect that there will be a fair amount of bad news in the morning.

Hanna Liubakova @HannaLiubakova
#Ukraine President @ZelenskyyUa has confirmed that the attack on Donbas began. He said that in the east & south of our country, Russians are trying to attack a little more thoughtfully lately than before, looking for a weak spot in the defense. Ukraine needs support more than ever

58 min ago
About 1,000 civilians are sheltering in Mariupol's besieged Azovstal plant, patrol police chief estimates
From CNN's Olga Voitovych
www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-new-04-18-22/index.html

From the CNN report about the civilians in the besieged Azovstal plant

Civilians, including women, children, and the elderly, are sheltering inside the Azovstal iron and steel plant in the besieged Ukrainian port of Mariupol, according to Myhailo Vershynin, the chief of the Mariupol patrol police.

Vershynin told CNN he was at the Azovstal plant, one of the city’s last bastions still under Ukrainian control which has been the focal point of heavy Russian bombardment following weeks of grinding warfare in the city that has leveled much of its infrastructure.

According to Vershynin, civilians sheltering in Azovstal include women with infants, the elderly, as well as small children. He estimated that there were about 1,000 people in total. He said Azovstal had "quite large reserves" of food and water, but supplies were running out fast.

^"Azovstal is ready for fierce resistance," Vershynin said. "Here they [defenders] are aware what their fate may be, but no one is going to give up. Yesterday they [Russians] offered us a 'corridor,' they wanted us to leave without weapons, through the filtration points, and then surrender."
"They were sent the same direction as the Russian warship. Nobody agreed to this. No one will leave without a weapon," Vershynin added.^

Communications in the city are limited, and CNN reached Vershynin through voice and text message. Vershynin described the situation in the Azovstal plant, where civilians have taken refuge from heavy shelling, as very serious.

"They [civilians] have established their life there, provided themselves with food and water," he said. "The military helped sometimes. These people did not want and still do not want to go out. ... They were aware they had more chances to stay alive here. But this was until the moment when the Russian Federation began to threaten to use airstrikes."
Vershinyn confirmed the city is closed by the Russians, but added the entrance to the city may be open on the left bank to the east of the city. But he added that the road that links Mariupol from with Zaporizhzhia and Berdiansk were blocked because of very serious fighting.

Earlier this evening:

Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien
Some really interesting evidence from the Pentagon briefing today as reported by @JackDetsch which sheds light on how the Russian build up is going, how many losses they have suffered, and the ongoing battle of the Donbas.

First, The Russian build-up now is now occurring. Before today the number of Russian BTGs the Pentagon was estimating were in Ukraine had actually dropped significantly. Now we have a hard number 76, 11 of which entered Ukr over the past days.

Much of these new formations, with artillery, are heading for the Donbas. Other hard figure, there are 22 BTGs undergoing refit outside of Ukraine (mostly one assumes from the Kyiv assault)

Combining these two we have 98 BTGs, which is interesting. That means Russia has fully lost between 32-42 BTGs (there was not specification how many of these were new--there had been reports earlier that Russia was assembling 10 new BTGs for the war)

So as a percentage of BTGs, Russia has lost 25-32%. Thats considerable (and doesnt take into account other losses from Airborne, Marines, Militia and Spetnaz. So the Ukraine estimate of just over 20k KIA--is very plausible.

Other sign that Russia is really gearing up for an engagement is that they have upped their air operations tempo considerably. 1.5 times increase up to 200 sorties yesterday.

No indication of what they are attacking, but they are getting more things in the air. That is something to watch closely--esp if there is evidence of the kinds of missions flown.

Aid for Ukraine is picking up. The US seems definitely to be listening to Ukraine pleas for more modern ranged artillery. Interesting tidbit. US is about to train Ukrainians on some modern US systems--in eastern Europe.

US also seems to be moving very swiftly on getting at least some aid to Ukraine. 4 flights in the previous 24 hours with one more soon. Thats a considerable pace.

So an interesting situation. 76 BTGs for all of Ukraine is really not a great number for Russia, will be hard to do everything and make a major offensive in the Donbas. Though watch the other 22.

Most concerning thing from my perspective is air operations. Really need to make sure Ukraine has all the anti-air it needs. And time to pull out the stops to get some fixed wing. The MiGs will do fine in the short-term.

Just had this clear update. Artillery and vehicles are getting to Ukraine now for the Battle of Donbas. Ukraine still being frustrated by no fixed wing aircraft. That last point is rather appalling. Get Ukraine the darn aircraft.

@BringBackCoffeeCreams

My post is now unhidden. Order is restored.

Thanks for flagging up the restore of your post...

Having read it if I may can I briefly rewind to that part of the debate - the restore still doesn't really clear up what the concern/fuss was supposed to be about.

I'm well aware how the Physics behind this subject works and I actually see no factual conflict between what I wrote and the points you/your DH made in that response.

As to the post that started this particular ball rolling - If anybody makes a statement that is objectively incorrect and most especially if that claim can create an misleading impression then IMHO there needs to be comment made rather than simply letting the comment stand, unchallenged. I guess others may be more comfortable if things were done differently.

I hope that explains my position on this and now hopefully we can get back to the current thread.

HTH.

Listened to an Army chap on the radio this morning, he was saying that what the Russians have done to Mariupol has actually made their job somewhat harder when it comes to completely taking it. All that bombing has meant that the roads are in poor condition, there is a lot of debris in the way, plus it is far easier for your enemy to spot you approaching in an urban environment if you have destroyed the stuff you would usually use for cover. Add into that the fact that your enemy is holed up in a huge area, with lots of underground tunnels and cover and anyone approaching it is in for a hard time flushing them out.

Christopher Miller @ChristopherJM
A Ukrainian army lieutenant on the frontline in Donetsk region tells me he and his soldiers are being hit as we speak with Russian howitzers, mortars, and MLRS "at the same time." They endured a similar bombardment earlier today "plus two Su-25... and our day became hell."

olexander scherba @olex_scherba
This will be a difficult night for #UkrainianArmy. Maybe the most difficult and decisive one.
Pray for our troops! Pray for our civilians! #PrayForUkraine!

I am praying for Ukraine.

PMK, horribly grim that it's ratcheting up again.

They have asked for us to pray for them. I am.

Praying for Ukraine and the victory of Donbas

Praying for some real miracles tonight 🙏

Told my hubby I feel guilty in my warm, safe bed tonight. He said "me too."

Night all

@Hillsmakeyoustrong. Same here

Hoping that the Ukrainians enduring tenacity and strength help them fight back with everything they have.

Praying for Ukraine tonight, hard. For those left in Mariupol and absolute strength and determination, which I know they have, for Donbas.

Another praying for Ukraine. Really hope they can continue to stay strong.