Ukraine Invasion: Part 21

[MagicFox]

Another thread, thank you to all

@EmeraldShamrock1 · 22/04/2022 08:21
Look at this thread? basically the same few posters, no one seems interested.

I appreciate the same few posters sharing views keeping us updated whilst I read quietly.
Thank you.

I agree.
Also, I think though usually on mumsnet threads many people join in to add their thoughts, or express indignation even, here people are wary of interrupting the flow of the thread when they themselves are far less informed. It is too a valuable to risk this.

Once again thank you to those who are working so hard to keep up this nuanced, detailed reporting that gets beyond the public news.

Me too. I don't have much to contribute but have been following all 21 threads.

Ukrainian An-26 on technical flight crashed in Vilniansk district of Zaporizhzhia region
liveuamap.com/en/2022/22-april-ukrainian-an26-on-technical-flight-crashed-in-vilniansk

40 miles from the front line. Ouch that may well have contained supplies.

I've been finding Deep State Radio's podcast really informative and it's hosted by David Rothkopf whose analysis I've appreciated. Linking here in case anybody wants to add it to the podcast list alongside eg Ukrainecast.

podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/deep-state-radio/id1245002955

Just as a heads up, the latest episode goes into Putin's nuclear threats and models various outcomes. It's clear on the issue of why NATO troops shouldn't be involved which has come up as a point of discussion several times on these threads.

As others have said, while only a few posters post regularly many more are reading. I have read every thread in full from the first one. I don’t tend to post but have appreciated the many articles, podcasts, books etc. recommended on this thread, which have in turn led me to other great materials.

My husband and I both seem to be reading a great deal on this war but we barely even talk to each other about it.

However, the silence is not a lack of interest. It’s just a feeling that there is so little to add that’s not just speculation / theorising. The news cycle moves so fast and I have become increasingly reticent to put any credence in unverified sources (although I do enjoy the speculation!).

This is thread 21. Many people joined in the discussion in earlier threads, probably because there were a lot of questions back then. Most of which have been answered so are not needing to be asked now.

I follow these multiple times a day but I don't have much to add. The posters keeping us informed are doing a fantastic job.

My dd showed me a post about Ukraine that she sees on her social media which I found upsetting. It was from a situation which like many others, has been discussed here, but here it is discussed in way that means I can process it.
There it seemed to be for shock value which adds nothing and demeans the people they are using for this.

Please keep posting here, I find it invaluable.

Mark Stone, @ Stone_SkyNews

🇺🇦 Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister tells SkyNews that 50,000 people remain in #Marioupol.

IrynaVereshchuk told me “we expected at least 5000 people [to arrive in the latest evacuation]. But we have only 79 people. This is what Russia does…”

Kevin Rothrock
Russia's military goal in Ukraine is now officially a land bridge to Crimea.
twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1517419352810795009?t=q2KybewLVYvI2gq63tXjDw&s=19

I too find these threads invaluable, it's my go to place for news, I very rarely have anything to add but I do appreciate all the informative posts. I tend to get obsessive about things and use the information on here to talk about it to other people. I worry about it slipping off the news

I honestly don't think there's any chance of it slipping off the news

Not sure that this demonstrates lack of interest in Ukraine. I follow all of these threads and find it really informative but don't post. I'm sure there are many other silent followers who are still interested in the current updates.

I am an occasional contributor. There threats have been a source of information, critical thought and comfort. I am grateful for the use of multiple sources too. Thanks all.

I’m going to de-lurk and say that I think there must be many people like me who read these threads avidly but don’t add anything. I find I am constantly watching the news channels, refreshing the live update on Ukraine on The Guardian web-site and reading whatever I can find about the war. No one really wants to talk about Ukraine though in RL. Even DP, who is interested in politics doesn’t have a lot to say.

I don’t know why people aren’t talking about Ukraine but I am relieved these threads are here and those with much more knowledge are keeping them going.

Must be some concern in Moldova given the rumours that Russia’s main aims are now:

1. full control of Donbas


2. land connection with crimea


3. full control of southern Ukraine and land access to Transnistria (where “Russian speaking population is oppressed” - sounds familiar…)

I am also going to de-lurk, I have followed these threads since the first and spend most of my day refreshing the page to get updates. I am forever updating my DH on the information I am finding on here.

I want to say thank you too all who contribute!

I also follow these threads religiously without commenting. Thank you to all who contribute.

Max Seddon

Looks like Russia's invasion goals are broader than previously admitted.

^Senior Russian commander Rustam Minnekayev says "one of the Russian army's tasks is establishing total control of the Donbas and southern Ukraine," after which they can "set up a land corridor to Crimea

Minnekayev also said that controlling southern Ukraine would open "another way to Transnistria," where he claimed "there are also instances of oppressing the Russian-speaking population."

That would indicate an attack on Odessa's in the making.

De-lurking to agree with all of the above - I read every post, as per a PP somehow I feel I have an obligation to know what is going on, however difficult a read it is, out of solidarity with Ukraine. (Plus I'm a history graduate, though as with covid I'd much rather be reading about history than living it!) Thanks to all who regularly contribute to this invaluable thread.

In less negative news (though 100% not positive) at least there doesn’t seem to be any current rumours of any sort of chemical weapon etc being used on the steel plant. I had a real fear of waking up to that sort of news this morning.

Catching up

@EsmaCannonball about the factories etc going on fire. Companion pointed out that because of sanctions facilities that are capable of making stuff that is normally imported will be working at much higher production levels atm. If the maintence is iffy, it could lead to fires/breakdowns. Don't suppose we hear much about the breakdowns.

@baroqueandblue With my children they've seen references to it, children's news programme and age-appropriately they've done it at school. I do talk about it, framing it that it's something that should not be happening and what can we do to help? I reassure them that we live in a safe land in the NL and that we are fortunate to do so, so it's good to do what we can to help. And what do they think of it all, and are they scared? Glad to help? Rather not?

I admit that I have said since they were young that we are fortunate to live in a safe, stable land with excellent health care systems and a good government though. I think it's a good thing for kids to realise -they- are safe and to internalise it, but to be aware that not everyone is able to live like that.

About the Gazrom assassinations suicides ... wonder if Gerhardt Schroder is just the slightest bit nervous.

It's kinda hilarious in a sardonic way. Putin actively encouraged a corruption model and now he's killing people for it.

Interesting about that Russian station that posted some figures that are close to Ukraine's. I did see somewhere that Ukraine had only lost 4k or so, pre-Donbass push, but if it was accurate then it's probably higher now :(

There was a statement somewhere that Ukraine lost a lot of aircraft early on, about 200. This was on the first day of the war when Russia started firing missiles. So presumably they were mostly on the tarmac at the time and empty. So one reason why they are so keen to get aircraft may be that they have 200 odd pilots without a plane ... that's a huge skill resource. On the other side, Russia's aircraft losses probably include pilot with plane/chopper, so they will be losing both the hardware and the pilot.

I am another avid reader of these threads and really appreciate the regular posters and others. Throughout the day and at night they are my go to source of info on what's happening, seeing things before they appear on mainstream media.

Also a religious lurker in these threads, but don’t contribute. I couldn’t gather all the info on here myself so quickly, so am delighted others are on it. I have learned so much I wouldn’t otherwise know.

I also have no one who will talk about this in real life, other than occasionally teen DD who reads a bit about it on Twitter. OH won’t talk about, not out of disinterest, but he finds it all too stressful along with everything else going on in society today. As he says, it’s enough to have to work harder and harder to provide for the family amid rising costs and general family/life issues to deal with. I know he reads about it, but hates me trying to engage him in conversation about it though.

I read about the war constantly as I want to be as fully informed as possible…I also now have a bit of an obsession with Flightradar24!! The whole situation is utterly horrifying and I pray for a resolution soon. A massive thanks to the regular contributors like @RedToothBrush and others for keeping me informed well ahead of mainstream news outlets I might add!!

Interesting thread on the Phoenix Ghost drone. Seems to be a feasibility to hunt out the Russian command posts now. One can hope. twitter.com/Osinttechnical

Ukrainian estimates of Russian losses

The total combat losses of russian enemy in #Ukraine from 24.02 to 22.04 were approximately:
personnel - about 21200 persons were liquidated
tanks ‒ 838
APV ‒ 2162
artillery systems – 397
MLRS - 138
Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 69
aircraft – 176
helicopters – 153
vehicles - 1523
boats / cutters - 8
fuel tanks - 76
UAV operational-tactical level - 172
special equipment - 27
mobile SRBM system - 4

General Staff of the Armed Forces of #Ukraine