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Ukraine Invasion: Part 21

1003 replies

MagicFox · 16/04/2022 21:01

Another thread, thank you to all

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Igotjelly · 20/04/2022 17:00

Agree ballistic missile tests take place fairly regularly (didn’t the US recently test one?) it’s just showmanship.

katem98 · 20/04/2022 17:01

Sorry, I'm being totally stupid but is Putin after the Donbas region now instead of all of Ukraine? In the beginning it was all very 'take all of Ukraine'. Now it seems to be "Putin has asserted that Russia will achieve its military objectives in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine". Sorry if I've missed something, I've been trying to take a break from it all.

MagicFox · 20/04/2022 17:03

Yes he's saying he's focusing on the east now

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MagicFox · 20/04/2022 17:04

Thanks for climbing me down on the missile @toastfiend @Igotjelly

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katem98 · 20/04/2022 17:05

@MagicFox Million dollar question, is he likely to call it victory if he takes the Donbas Region? Or continue to take over Ukraine entirely? Can’t believe one man holds all of this power and actually believes he deserves it.

toastfiend · 20/04/2022 17:06

Igotjelly · 20/04/2022 17:00

Agree ballistic missile tests take place fairly regularly (didn’t the US recently test one?) it’s just showmanship.

I think they cancelled it because they were wary of escalating tensions further - but yes, there was one planned.

TheABC · 20/04/2022 17:07

Trigger warning: nerdy demographics ahead

One of the striking things about Russia's demographics is the hangover from the 1990's economic bust. The conscripts fighting in the war today are part of the smallest cohort on record. Russia's population went into negative figures thanks to Covid-19 and they have a really low birthrate (1.2 TFR, from memory). Combine that with war losses, the brain drain and the forthcoming economic shock and the outlook gets even more gloomy. It's going to be a year or two before we get the data, but I would bet, a pound to 100 roubles that their population charts will show a steep decline for the younger generation.

Why does this matter? Because the FT has posted an article today about China's population - it's going into negative growth 12 years earlier than expected. It's behind a paywall, but if you sign up you get a free article.

www.ft.com/content/a1389fba-ffd6-474e-8eed-ac9198453e94.

Now, this matters because a) China's wealth has been made off the back of the demographic dividend. It's been using internal migrant labour to fuel it's factories and grey service industry (different from the slave labour camps). That's going to be a problem in the future, causing a drag on their economy.

b) Fewer kids means fewer people to support the elderly in a country with an underdeveloped welfare system. Most Chinese families now follow the 4-2-1 model, causing immense pressure on working families as they struggle to support grandparents and children. So, fewer tax receipts, less discretionary spend and no sign if an uptick in births.

Why does this matter? Because China wants Taiwan and they are watching the West's reaction to Russia very, very carefully.

If they see Putin's rickety army "win" against Ukraine, despite NATO's help, they will feel more confident about winning in a war of attrition against the USA/allies as they have (for now) the manufacturing output, army and public support to do so. If they see us dig in for the long haul, they are likely to reconsider.

Igotjelly · 20/04/2022 17:08

MagicFox · 20/04/2022 17:04

Thanks for climbing me down on the missile @toastfiend @Igotjelly

It can all feel really scary I know 💐 It was reported earlier today, I think on Sky, that one of the top US defence officials thinks the chance of nuclear war is roughly 1%. So certainly shouldn’t be ignored but not imminently concerning.

the other thing to remember is that there will be mountains of diplomatic work going on behind the scenes to prevent such an escalation. Having worked with diplomats throughout my career I have to say my level of confidence is them is really high.

Igotjelly · 20/04/2022 17:11

toastfiend · 20/04/2022 17:06

I think they cancelled it because they were wary of escalating tensions further - but yes, there was one planned.

Ah yes they did you’re right, point is the same in that it’s not an unheard of event and certainly not a precursor to imminent nuclear war.

MagicFox · 20/04/2022 17:12

@katem98

@MagicFox Million dollar question, is he likely to call it victory if he takes the Donbas Region? Or continue to take over Ukraine entirely? Can’t believe one man holds all of this power and actually believes he deserves it.
Yep it's the million dollar question! Wish I knew the answer. Ukraine have a say in any negotiations as well (assuming Putin chooses a moment as an off ramp). And then there's the question of if a partial victory (if it's achieved) would stop future invasions or if we'd be back here in a few years time. This is where potential security guarantees come in.

Others will answer this better than me

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MagicFox · 20/04/2022 17:18

Thanks @Igotjelly , great to hear you say that re diplomats

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RedToothBrush · 20/04/2022 17:21

Neil Hauer AT neilphauer
Honestly one of the best pieces I've read on the broad segments of Russian society (the upper-class, the impoverished, and those in the middle scraping by) and how they relate to Russia's war in Ukraine. Highly recommend reading.

Michael AT Novussubsole
This is a good piece. But by ignoring the "fourth Russia" - autochtonous ethnic minorities, overwhelmingly Muslim ones - its author commits a big blunder. Because it is these people's comportment will have the decisive impact on post-war Russia.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/04/20/the-four-russias-and-ukraine-a77423
The Four Russias and Ukraine
Observations on Russia's stratified population and their attitude to war

RedToothBrush · 20/04/2022 17:27

“Four Russias” was created by the geographer Natalya Zubarevich in 2011. She posited the existence four distinct socio-economic blocks: the Westernized urban conglomerates; the mid-sized cities and towns, where most of the population works for the state or a big industrial corporation; the villages, so removed from everything that Vladimir Putin is about as real for them as those guys on Mt. Olympus were for Hellenic shepherds; and the “ethnic republics,” which, for the purposes of this exercise, can be rolled into the two last categories.

The bottom 20% can be described through dry economic data: hand-to-mouth living, no savings at all; still using the outhouse and relying on firewood to keep warm — both 20-25% of the Russian population — really. They are often employed, the “working poor,” living below the poverty line despite having a job. $US150 is considered a decent monthly salary in the low places. Life expectancy and pension age are about the same for Russian males, so it’s a close race between death and a couple years’ retirement.

This is Russia beyond the big cities, in localities like Biysk or Porkhov. It’s all those townlets with a grey-on-grey color scheme and roads like they’ve just been bombed. Born there? Your alcoholic father has quite possibly been beating up your granny for her $US150 pension, and junkies were doing salt in the back of your class in the eighth grade. Collection of scrap metal was an honorable alternative to petty theft, though the metal had to be stolen anyway. Your social circle was all sporting Adidas tracksuits, a third had done jail time. Chances are, you knew someone who killed someone. You sure knew someone who drank themselves to death (maybe it was your dad). And in lieu of the older generation to look up to, you got dames with permed hair, bloated from their cheap macaroni diet, hunched and dead-eyed before they turn forty.

And

It's the young men from these low places who comprise a disproportionate percentage of the Russian invading force in Ukraine. Coupled with the simple fact that war breeds atrocity, especially a retro war like this one, is there any wonder that so many Russian soldiers, especially rank-and-file — but also some commanders from the same world — have turned to unspeakable crimes? Unspeakable to you and me, maybe; to them, it was just another Thursday — even in peacetime. The few who somehow picked up the importance of morals in spite of everything bailed out and never looked back. Or are dead. Morals are not conducive to survival in Biysk and Porkhov.

And

And then there’s the IKEA crowd — the core of the nation, about 60% by my crude reckoning. This is an important group. The people in the red brick towers are terrified of popular uprising, and everything they do always factors in broad public support, albeit through lies and coercion.

What do they believe? It’s like that joke that the regime in Russia is really “mortgage realism”: Everyone understands everything, but they’ve all got loans to pay.

And

We simply don’t appreciate how much this means to middle Russia. The squalor of the bottom 20% remains the default quality of life that the majority of the nation expects. But instead, there came an accumulation of all the small things that, together, spell—or at least promise—a qualitative shift. A smartphone; Lego and a party at a McDonald’s for your kid’s birthday; a car to drive to your own place. This was, in fact, that feeling of stability that Putin keeps talking about.

Igotjelly · 20/04/2022 17:40

CNN reporting that the US was notified ahead of the missile launch, as per international law. This is reassuring that those lines of communication are still open. It is reported that the US sees no cause for concern in the test which adhered to international law.

MagicFox · 20/04/2022 17:42

@Igotjelly

CNN reporting that the US was notified ahead of the missile launch, as per international law. This is reassuring that those lines of communication are still open. It is reported that the US sees no cause for concern in the test which adhered to international law.
Cor, that's great to know
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shreddednips · 20/04/2022 17:50

@Igotjelly

Agree ballistic missile tests take place fairly regularly (didn’t the US recently test one?) it’s just showmanship.
Just catching up on the thread, thanks as always everyone for the amazing contributions. Yes I agree with this, missile tests are normal. I suppose if you're spending huge amounts of money on these weapons, you want to know that they work.

The US cancelled their ICBM tests because they didn't want to ramp up tensions. I'm not sure if Russia's test was scheduled before the invasion, if not then there might be an element of sabre rattling involved. But I don't think the test in itself is cause for alarm.

TiddyTidTwo · 20/04/2022 17:59

"Russia tests new intercontinental ballistic nuke - as Putin warns the hypersonic 'Satan II' weapon that 'can destroy UK' will 'provide food for thought for our enemies'"

Blah blah! Anyway why are we being singled out for this particular Willy Wave?

MagicFox · 20/04/2022 18:00

@TiddyTidTwo does russia specifically mention the UK? Where is this from?

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TiddyTidTwo · 20/04/2022 18:04

Daily Fail so bucket of salt needed perhaps

twitter.com/yohiobaseball/status/1516818153329803271?s=21&t=eELwMqPFTPG7EJMdYYQJDQ

elephantmarchingin · 20/04/2022 18:05

@TiddyTidTwo can't see any mention of the UK anywhere?

TiddyTidTwo · 20/04/2022 18:09

Looks like a bit of DM 2+2=4.5

MagicFox · 20/04/2022 18:10

The article says "The Kremlin claims the unmatched 16,000mph missile, which has been in development for years, could destroy the UK, hit any target on earth and carry 12 nuclear warheads"

But that's not a direct quote from the Kremlin so hard to tell if the Fail have used the UK analogy to refer to the size of the destruction it could cause or if it does come from Russia. Really fucking atrocious reporting

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TiddyTidTwo · 20/04/2022 18:10

.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 21
TiddyTidTwo · 20/04/2022 18:12

Yeah. Will panic some for sure. I can't see it happening, anywhere other than possible a tactical in Ukraine

Thedogissnoringagain · 20/04/2022 18:13

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