Ukraine Invasion: Part 21

[MagicFox]

Another thread, thank you to all

24tv.ua/ru/nikuda-ne-edut-nichego-ne-vezut-russkoj-zheleznoj-doroge-sdelali_n1958346
They don’t go anywhere, they don’t carry anything: the Russian railway was very hurt

RZD is bankrupt
As of mid-April, Russian Railways reports that 150,000 freight cars are simply standing still

They don't go anywhere and don't bring anything. Because because of the sanctions, cargo flows have changed. Moreover, there are so many empty wagons that there is nowhere to store them.

The entire network of Russian Railways, and this includes 440 industrial enterprises connected to the railway, can only accommodate 63,000 idle cars. Therefore, the remaining empty wagons are stored on public tracks. And for such a "rent" of tracks, private owners of wagons must pay. And there is nothing to pay, because their activities have been stopped.
Now, in order not to provoke mass bankruptcies, the Russian government is considering how to abolish the fee for storing wagons on the tracks of Russian Railways. And this means that the same Russian Railways will receive additional damage of 1 billion rubles a year

To honour Boris Johnson or to piss off Putin? Remove the name of a great Russian nationalist and replace it with a dickhead.

I assume Putin secretly wants Sweden and Finland to join NATO. Because he's going out of his way to ensure they take the decision to join.

He's doing a very good job of it to be sure, just saw a thread on the debate right now, nearly all the parties are in favour of joining now and the main one that has been long opposed is now saying they can see pros and cons and its up to each member to decide how they vote. Once Finland says yes, Sweden will follow.

Tim White@TWMCltd
^There have been huge queues this week outside #Russia's embassy in #Ethiopia.
AT addisstandard has reported on it and this is their photo.^
Russia denies they're recruiting mercenaries.
I'm sure all these men of fighting age just came to say hello, aren't you?

The new format is making my eyes hurt and I keep losing messages. I'll get used to it eventually.

This story finished me off the other day, they are raising money to send incubators to maternity hospitals in Ukraine, due to an increase in pre-term births since the invasion by Russia
Ukraine: Kent charity aims to raise £300,000 for incubators
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-61095991

PM

It’s going pear shaped in so many fronts…

Oh yes, those young men are definitely not mercenaries queuing up to enlist, absolutely not.

they're there for the flowers and hugs the Ukrainians give out so generously.

Interesting, if depressing, realist piece by Ian Bremmer. His argument makes sense to me I'm afraid: ianbremmer.bulletin.com/the-price-of-russian-defeat/

Ben Noble AT BenHNoble
The Russian authorities are trying to cover up the true number of Russian casualties. According to reporting by AT istories_media, doctors treating Russian military personnel on the border with Ukraine are being forced to sign non-disclosure agreements.

[https://zona-media.translate.goog/news/2022/04/20/doctor?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp]]
"Important stories": doctors treating Russian servicemen on the border with Ukraine were forced to sign a non-disclosure agreement

According to the doctor, doctors from the Belgorod and Kursk regions, as well as employees of the Federal Medical and Biological Agency, have such obligations. In addition to them, doctors are sent to work with the wounded from the A.V. Vishnevsky in Moscow. “Everyone secured themselves with papers,” added the interlocutor of the publication.

In addition, she noted that trips to the regions on the border with Ukraine are issued for doctors as business trips. “Doctors are sent on a voluntary-compulsory basis. If you don't go, you're fired. As always in government institutions, we have one lever for pressure, ”Important Stories quotes an employee of the clinic.

I read that Bremmer piece but on consideration I'm not sure it's actually adding much. We have always known Putin has to have a way out, but he's more than clever enough at propeganda to spin a catastrophic defeat into a ' win' for domestic publication. Nothing is going to get China on the West's side. There is the possibility of escalation but it's always been there. It's not like you can demand reparations from Russia for the damage they've done to the parts they invaded but can't hold onto (which will hopefully include all of Ukraine!).

He's also not taking into account that we have to respect the Ukrainians' decision to fight. It's their country.

To put this into context, 1 billion Rubles is about € 11.5 million.

Annual gas sales by Russia to the rest of the world were € 52 billion in 2021. The daily equivalent is € 142 million which means the damages are just equal to two hours of gas revenue. Or € 0.36 per day for each empty wagon that cannot be accommodated off track. I can't get excited about that article.

It does mean that an awful lot of Stuff isn't getting transported though nowadays, which implies stuff either isn't getting made or its in the wagons and not being delivered. Given the likelihood of theft it seems more likely it's not gettin made.

So a victory for Putin leaves the West open to further aggression.

A partial victory for Putin means he could regroup and we could be open to further aggression in the future,

A complete defeat means he could be really annoyed and we could be open to further aggression in the future?

I guess you can spin it any which way.

So maybe we should try to support Ukraine, who appear to be the victims here? Ideally in much of a humanitarian and cooperative spirit as possible with the rest of Europe.

As whatever we do, we cannot as things stand neutralise the threat of further aggression from Russia?

Russia has been testing intercontinental ballistic missiles today according to Putin.

Agreed, but we knew that anyway. As an incremental piece of news that the Russian government might have to bail out, I am ambivalent. US defence spending is €750 billion which is 15x Russian gas exports and is set to increase above inflation in future. There is the US 'black budget' which will add a little more. One thing we can easily foresee is the increase in military spending as a proportion of total worldwide GDP.

I find Brenner's article very arrogant. The only people who sign off on peace terms are the Ukrainians. Putin will not take peace seriously until the costs of continuing are higher than settling. I am also bemused by Brenner's reference to the 1939 campaign - it was a different era with a different army and a different Slavic empire. Today we are up against a corrupt kleptocracy v. one third of the world's rich industrial heartlands. If it comes down to stamina, bandages and bullets, I am damn sure NATO can outproduce Russia.

Does this mean Ukraine will take back Donbas or cut the landbridge to Crimea? I don't know. Ukraine is suffering heavy losses. I do know Russia has to be fought to a standstill before they concede.

Worrying, but shall take with a big pinch of salt until its confirmed by someone other than Putin

One thing we can easily foresee is the increase in military spending as a proportion of total worldwide GDP.

Yes.

It's been one individual who triggered this but I think the optimists who thought 'we've passed beyond war!" should take a long look at the fact that it is indeed one single individual who has planned a power gain and then this re-expansion for 20 years and destabilized a more peaceful world. One individual. Supported by others, but he's been the driver.

It's true about the missile test: twitter.com/nukestrat/status/1516802535708839943?s=21&t=1iqyPi6W0bALwtaLdQE--A

Well that is some major sabre rattling

Can you imagine if Hitler had nuclear weapons? How can one crazy man have this much power, power to hold the world to ransom? If nuclear deterrence supposes rational actors isn't that...just wishful thinking?

I think the missile test was always scheduled for 2022? It's been in development for a long time. It's obviously not great timing and Putin's comments, as reported, are pretty obvious sabre rattling, but I think the test itself was planned before the current situation arose.