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Ukraine Invasion: Part 21

1003 replies

MagicFox · 16/04/2022 21:01

Another thread, thank you to all

OP posts:
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MagicFox · 20/04/2022 18:17

No mention of UK there, the DM should be ashamed. And should clarify

OP posts:
Thedogissnoringagain · 20/04/2022 18:20

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn at poster's request

Igotjelly · 20/04/2022 18:20

If I had a £ for every time the DM suggested we were going to be nuked, or that the world was going to end in some way, I’d be a multi millionaire for sure. They’re an absolute rag intent on nothing but scaremongering. There are at least 5 articles listed above it slating Harry and Meghan - says a lot.

BreadInCaptivity · 20/04/2022 18:27

@katem98

@MagicFox Million dollar question, is he likely to call it victory if he takes the Donbas Region? Or continue to take over Ukraine entirely? Can’t believe one man holds all of this power and actually believes he deserves it.
Possibly - for now.

It might be enough for him to "sell" a victory in Russia and buy time to lick his wounds and re-group.

However that's not certain.

Sanctions are unlikely to end under such a scenario and it of course assumes the Ukrainians would agree to it - something I have yet to evidence.

Rather the atrocities of Bucha and beyond seem to have strengthened their resolve because they know what fate awaits appeasement and frankly they want payback.

There is also the very real possibility that allowing Russia to keep nibbling away at Ukraine simply gives them a better opportunity (logistically and tactically) to stage another full invasion in the future. So the question becomes do we fight now to the bitter end or rinse and repeat in another few years and watch more of Ukraine destroyed (some of which has had £££ poured into it to rebuild) and give Russia time to learn from the mistakes it made this time round.

Arguably the best opportunity to push Russia out of Ukraine for good is right now and give it such a bloody nose it won't be coming back for more.

There's also a geopolitical aspect.

NATO has made its support of Ukraine clear. If we allow it to fall under terms that are not to that nations advantage we've essentially proven to Putin (and China) that our assistance and resolve is finite. That's a big tell - one which opens up the possibility of future conflict if the aggressors feel they have the reserves to weather the storm of sanctions and "short term" weapons supply to those the West is a "fair weather" friend to.

Upshot is Putin doesn't believe there is a Ukraine. He believes in "the Ukraine" as a part of Russia that should be ruled by him.

He doesn't value peace, lives or even prosperity of his own people in Russia.

So yes - he might "settle" for the Donbas but anyone who thinks that's the end of the conflict is, I feel deluded.

katem98 · 20/04/2022 18:32

Thanks @BreadInCaptivity. My hopes would be that if he did settle for Donbas that by the time he’d licked his wounds and replanned another invasion - it’d be too late and he’d be dead (wishful thinking on my part).

TargusEasting · 20/04/2022 18:35

RedToothBrush · 20/04/2022 17:21

Neil Hauer AT neilphauer
Honestly one of the best pieces I've read on the broad segments of Russian society (the upper-class, the impoverished, and those in the middle scraping by) and how they relate to Russia's war in Ukraine. Highly recommend reading.

Michael AT Novussubsole
This is a good piece. But by ignoring the "fourth Russia" - autochtonous ethnic minorities, overwhelmingly Muslim ones - its author commits a big blunder. Because it is these people's comportment will have the decisive impact on post-war Russia.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/04/20/the-four-russias-and-ukraine-a77423
The Four Russias and Ukraine
Observations on Russia's stratified population and their attitude to war

@RedToothBrush Great article, thank you. It does stack up to some obiter evidence.

You posted a piece a few threads back with the potential outcomes for Russia, one being North Korea Mk2, etc. I cannot remember if it was your opinion or comment from another writer. Just curious where Russia might be heading on that list of outcomes, indeed if it has changed at all?

BreadInCaptivity · 20/04/2022 18:41

@katem98

Thanks @BreadInCaptivity. My hopes would be that if he did settle for Donbas that by the time he’d licked his wounds and replanned another invasion - it’d be too late and he’d be dead (wishful thinking on my part).
But then you are assuming any successor won't be cast from the same mould and tbh we have no real data on Putin's health - he could last for another decade easily.

Even if he does have a successor in mind I'd suggest it's someone he's steeped/groomed to continue his legacy.

I'm not buying him being overthrown either. He's got the Kremlin wrapped up good and proper (and much of the population).

I'd appreciate a counterpoint to my view but I'm yet to see something I'm convinced by.

Putin isn't going to be upset by Russian isolation - I think to him it's like manna from heaven. Less outside influences equal more control.

katem98 · 20/04/2022 18:49

@BreadInCaptivity Hmm, I did see the below posted earlier, I’m sure I read it via BBC News but can now only find it on Bloomberg and Japan Times..

“A small but growing number of senior Kremlin insiders are quietly questioning Russian president Vladimir Putin’s decision to go to war.”

BreadInCaptivity · 20/04/2022 18:52

@katem98

@BreadInCaptivity Hmm, I did see the below posted earlier, I’m sure I read it via BBC News but can now only find it on Bloomberg and Japan Times..

“A small but growing number of senior Kremlin insiders are quietly questioning Russian president Vladimir Putin’s decision to go to war.”

Questioning is one thing and doing anything about it (or having the wherewithal to do so) is quite another.

If reports are to be believed, Putin is aggressively "cleaning house", especially in the FSB.

Who is left for "defectors" to rally to?

TargusEasting · 20/04/2022 18:56

If reports are to be believed, Putin is aggressively "cleaning house", especially in the FSB.

The problem with cleaning out the doers and henchmen is that eventually you run out of them. A bit like sending all your pilots off to crash planes into ships. Eventually you have no pilots.

TargusEasting · 20/04/2022 18:58

@katem98
www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61163546
This is on the front page now, but I also saw different articles earlier.

RedToothBrush · 20/04/2022 19:06

Jack Detsch AT JackDetsch
NEW: Russia has added FOUR new battalion tactical groups into Ukraine in the last 24 hours, three of them into the Donbas: senior U.S. defense official Russia now has 82 battalion tactical groups inside Ukraine. Some have enabling capabilities for ground troops.

There are a number of reports of Russia gaining ground today (Popasna in Luhansk) and just south of Izyum but Ukraine have repelled a number of other attacks. Ukraine has retaken Derhachi north-west of Kharkiv (Russia have confirmed this) and Oleksandriivka near Mykolaiv (US have confirmed this). They retook Marinka yesterday (near Donetsk), but have continued to clear the area of Russian troops.

military still within shelling range while more important are routes south.

RedToothBrush · 20/04/2022 19:09

Jack Detsch AT JackDetsch
U.S. has "significant" levels of 155mm artillery ammo to provide to Ukraine and is not concerned about Pentagon stockpiles: senior U.S. defense official

This one is important. There was some concern about this.

TiddyTidTwo · 20/04/2022 19:09

I agree bread.

I keep saying this ad nauseam, maybe I'll name change to accommodate Grin but kicking the can down the road is most certainly not a long term solution. He must be pushed back and bloody hard and it must hurt so much it won't be contemplated again.

Or, someone will take him out. Please

Hillsmakeyoustrong · 20/04/2022 19:12

Yes this guy is most upset that he is only worth £800 million due to the war and sanctions. #itsahardlife

Hillsmakeyoustrong · 20/04/2022 19:15

RedToothBrush · 20/04/2022 19:06

Jack Detsch AT JackDetsch
NEW: Russia has added FOUR new battalion tactical groups into Ukraine in the last 24 hours, three of them into the Donbas: senior U.S. defense official Russia now has 82 battalion tactical groups inside Ukraine. Some have enabling capabilities for ground troops.

There are a number of reports of Russia gaining ground today (Popasna in Luhansk) and just south of Izyum but Ukraine have repelled a number of other attacks. Ukraine has retaken Derhachi north-west of Kharkiv (Russia have confirmed this) and Oleksandriivka near Mykolaiv (US have confirmed this). They retook Marinka yesterday (near Donetsk), but have continued to clear the area of Russian troops.

military still within shelling range while more important are routes south.

Yes. My contact in Odesa said that Kherson is now entirely closed off. Can't get any aid in at all.

MagicFox · 20/04/2022 19:15

Say that analysts are right when they suggest (as Bremmer does, for example) that Putin won't capitulate and will escalate rather than allow a defeat - where does this leave us? I accept that the ideal situation would be push back and a bloody nose but what really is the best scenario when dealing with a nutter who will deny that pushback? It feels like we're in an awful stalemate precisely because of Putin's intractability

OP posts:
TiddyTidTwo · 20/04/2022 19:19

"Unfortunately, the humanitarian corridor from Mariupol did not work as planned today. Due to the lack of control over their own military occupiers were unable to ensure a proper ceasefire," - Iryna Vereshchuk.

No surprise there.

Fucking heartbreaking

TiddyTidTwo · 20/04/2022 19:25

I guess magic our choices are shit and it's frustrating that Putin has been allowed to get this far. Which the West has allowed.

We either push back hard or watch him continue to commit atrocities hoping he will die soon. Or move further west. I think our Eastern European friends know all too well the danger to Europe right now.

TiddyTidTwo · 20/04/2022 19:54

⚡️ Russian media publishes list of Ukrainian celebrities, influencers allegedly banned from entering country for 50 years.

Several Kremlin-linked media outlets reported that 31 Ukrainian celebrities, TV presenters, and influencers are now banned from entering Russia.

Major break news. Russia bringing out the big guns now.

Honestly, if it wasn't so abhorrent what's happening, this is laughable.

I mean who the fuck would want to go to Russia in the next century?

YorkshireLondonMiss · 20/04/2022 20:06

@TiddyTidTwo the height of petty!!!

Also…if their wider plan is to absorb Ukraine into Russia what are they going to do, deport the entire population? Bunch of knobs.

TiddyTidTwo · 20/04/2022 20:11

"⚡️ Zelensky: Ukraine ready for any format of people exchange in Mariupol.

He said that Ukraine was ready to exchange captured Russian soldiers and bodies of the killed Russian soldiers for the civilian Ukrainians in the largely ruined and partly occupied Mariupol"

He's trying.

Does Putin value his soldiers enough? Those mothers who await corpses? Or more likely haven't heard a thing from their sons?

Natsku · 20/04/2022 20:19

Doubt it.

Natsku · 20/04/2022 20:22

I mean who the fuck would want to go to Russia in the next century?

Was thinking about this the other day, and was sad. I really enjoyed my visits to Russia some years ago, and had planned on going again one day with my children. But not any more, of course.
Ridiculous to ban Ukrainian celebrities though, laughable.

RedToothBrush · 20/04/2022 20:25

Jack Detsch AT JackDetsch
A senior U.S. defense officials wrapped up a briefing a while ago describing how the Pentagon sees Russia's war in Ukraine on day 56. Here are some of the highlights, including news on U.S. military training and fighter jet parts for Ukraine.

First off, some clarification, Ukraine has NOT received new fixed-wing aircraft from Europe, as DoD indicated Tuesday. But Ukraine has managed to put 20 more fighters back in the skies with new parts from European partners. MiGs could also be on the way

The U.S. has also begun training for Ukrainian military advisors on US howitzers somewhere in Europe that should last a week Ukraine will have 40,000 rounds for 155mm howitzer artillery. More is likely on the way from ANOTHER $800 million in military aid

On the military front in Ukraine, defenders are holding off Russia at Mariupol's steel factory, the U.S. believes. Russia has used fixed-wing bombers to fire on Mariupol, the U.S. defense official said.

Russia is focusing airstrikes exclusively on the Donbas and Ukraine's south in the past 24 hours, the U.S. believes – and Russian air-to-ground integration is improving. Russia's prelude to the operation is focused on northern pushes, mainly near Izyum.

Russia is continuing preparations for the Donbas by staging artillery and helos near the region that will support ground troops And the U.S. is responding by landing planeload upon planeload of howitzers & other weapons in Europe for trucking to Ukraine.

And there's more where that came from, the U.S. insists. The Pentagon not YET worried about stockpiles of Javelin and Stinger missiles either, though it is engaging the defense industry to provide more – and fast.

Russia is up to 82 battalion tactical groups in Ukraine after adding another 4 in last 24 hr, three of those in and around Donbas. That's down from the 120 BTGs that Russia had amassed on Ukrainian border before the invasion. But DoD numbers have fluctuated a lot.

Russia is also staging command and control elements over the border from Ukraine in Western Russia, a sign that they're trying to learn from the failure to coordinate the Kyiv campaign with the appointment of Gen. Aleksandr Dvornikov as theater commander.

But even as Russia makes upgrades, and took a town in Donbas as defenders pushed away to defensive positions, Ukraine is fighting them every step of the way. Ukrainian troops have recently taken another town in the south, possibly extending buffer around Mykolaiv

Finally, Russia's test of the Sarmat ICBM was pre-cleared by the Kremlin with U.S. officials under New START treaty rules, even though Putin said the test would make the U.S. "think twice." U.S. and Russia have NO arms control talks on the table right now

That's it. Another thing: Russia also has landing ships off of the Crimean coast, but U.S. has seen NO signs of an imminent amphibious landing, per U.S. defense official, but that could be a factor if Mariupol battle continues.

Phillips P. OBrien AT PhillipsPOBrien
Well Ukrainian Air Force saying no new aircraft, so no new platforms as the Pentagon said. Says it’s spare parts allowing more aircraft into operation.

Ukrainian Air Force AT KpsZSU
Officially Ukraine did not receive new aircraft from partners! With the assistance of the US Government, AT KpsZSU received spare parts and components for the restoration and repair of the fleet of aircraft in the Armed Forces, which will allow to put into service more equipment.

Phillips P. OBrien AT PhillipsPOBrien
Yes the use of the word ‘Officially’ is a little odd, but don’t know what to make of it.

hmm, pentagon saying that these spare parts resulted in 20 extra aircraft for Ukraine. That certainly sounds like alot. I wonder if the ‘officially’ had a little wink and a nudge in it.

And to be fair, the Ukrainians have a track record of this, their wink and a nudge denial of the Belgorod fuel dump attack most famously

I mean, you don’t normally expect to find 20 extra MiGs down the back of the sofa needing a few spare parts

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