Ukraine Invasion: Part 21

[MagicFox]

Another thread, thank you to all

• don't. Sound

Netherlands to send heavy weapons, including armoured fighting vehicles:

twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1516434478935285765

@TiddyTidTwo You aren't wrong!
i do not understand the Black Sea thing, there would be no conflict because Russia knows full well it cannot compete against the US fleet.

We are watching the slow destruction of an entire nation and cry crocodile tears "oh if only we could do more" but won't.

This doesn't quite make sense:

Paul McLeary @paulmcleary
NEW: @PentagonPresSec said just now Ukraine "have received additional aircraft and the aircraft parts to help them get more more aircraft in the air" recently

Pentagon spokesman continues that the US has helped w/ the "shipment of some additional spare parts that has helped with their aircraft needs, but we have not transported whole aircraft" for Ukraine

Unless this is a good way to get MiGs without admitting.

'Thats a left half' oh and in the other shipment is a right half. Those additional parts just need putting together, and MAGIC!'

Sky news

"Russian businessman speaks out against 'crazy' invasion
Russian businessman Oleg Tinkov has spoken out against the "crazy" invasion of Ukraine, calling its supporters "morons".

In a post on his Instagram account, the former billionaire said "90% of Russians are against" the war.

Mr Tinkov was worth more than $8bn until the war forced down the value of his fortune to about $800m, according to Forbes.

He was among those sanctioned by the UK government.

He said: "I don’t see ANY beneficiary of this crazy war! Innocent people and soldiers are dying.

"The generals, waking up with a hangover, realised that they had a sh*y army. How can the army be good, if everything else in the country is sh** and mired in nepotism and servility?"

"Of course there are morons who draw Z, but morons in any country are 10%. 90% of Russians are AGAINST this war!" he added, referring to the Z symbol that has become a sign of support for Russia.

He addressed the "collective West" by asking to "please give Mr Putin a clear exit to save his face and stop this massacre. Please be more rational and humanitarian."

This is one of the strongest anti-war sentiments expressed by a Russian oligarch to date."

Can you imagine being £800 million and considering yourself vastly poorer for it?! 🤯

We are watching the slow destruction of an entire nation and cry crocodile tears "oh if only we could do more" but won't.

Exactly. Like I've said numerous times, kicking the can down the road is not going to help our children and grandchildren. Long term strategy required which means short term fast and hard action. Putrid cannot withstand NATO. He knows it.

Agree @TiddyTidTwo

@RedToothBrush

This doesn't quite make sense:

Paul McLeary @paulmcleary
NEW: @PentagonPresSec said just now Ukraine "have received additional aircraft and the aircraft parts to help them get more more aircraft in the air" recently

Pentagon spokesman continues that the US has helped w/ the "shipment of some additional spare parts that has helped with their aircraft needs, but we have not transported whole aircraft" for Ukraine

Unless this is a good way to get MiGs without admitting.

'Thats a left half' oh and in the other shipment is a right half. Those additional parts just need putting together, and MAGIC!'

You are right, it's a bit vague isn't it..

As for the boxes...

www.google.com/search?q=ohnny+ash+I%27ve+got+a+58+59&rlz=1C1UEAD_frFR988FR988&oq=ohnny+ash+I%27ve+got+a+58+59&aqs=chrome..69i57j33i10i160.14931j1j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

Yes but there is a reason why Ukraine is not in NATO. And this presumes that NATO is doing nothing, which isn't the case. It's awful to watch, it's awful. But the implications of NATO putting boots on the ground have been explored in detail here, as well as the reasons as to why it can't happen.

I still don't get why Russia has to have heads up on every bit of kit donated. Why can't they just have a really nasty surprise on the day?

@Natsku

Well that's handy then! Maybe I should map out which of my neighbours are useful.

I mentally did this years ago! We haven't got any doctors in our street (though there's a retired one within walking distance), but we have 2 nurses (I'm one), a midwife, a couple of ex military, a scout leader, a few mechanics and a couple of guys who can hunt. I tried to persuade the Parish Council that we need an emergency plan. I may get back on that plan as DH is now on the PC, but I fear I'd end up having to join!

Tried to listen to the Radio 4 thing at 8 but kept getting interrupted, will have to listen again later.

@strawberriesarenot

I still don't get why Russia has to have heads up on every bit of kit donated. Why can't they just have a really nasty surprise on the day?

I think it's for transparency because there are red lines about what is seen as getting involved

@notimagain If the equipment can be sent now, it could have been early, i doubt they have been training up Ukrainian forces on how to drive a Humvee for the last 6 weeks.
Training for advanced kit should have started earlier... we were arguing this point 2 weeks ago....

Still no action on the MiG's, yes i get that Ukraine might use a different variant but from my limited googling, seems the ex Warsaw pact countries used basically the same multi role '29 and Poland didn't fill it with Western avionics.

then there is the Black Sea, that i do not understand, the US fleet is rumoured to at the other end of the Med (as of last week) its International waters! albeit Turkey has some say but i doubt they would stop the US if they really wanted to go there & why can't we tell the Russians "lift your blockade now!"

Shashank Joshi @shashj
European official: "we’ll see a stalemate in four to six months as Russian troops control the Luhansk region, a part of the Donbas, and a small land bridge...By the fall, both Russia and Ukraine might agree to comprehensive negotiations"
[[European official: "we’ll see a stalemate in four to six months as Russian troops control the Luhansk region, a part of the Donbas, and a small land bridge...By the fall, both Russia and Ukraine might agree to comprehensive negotiations"
www.politico.com/newsletters/national-security-daily/2022/04/19/worse-than-bucha-00026326
‘Worse than Bucha’

(article title reflects Mariupol. Article itself is about current state of play and where it will end up)

@strawberriesarenot

I still don't get why Russia has to have heads up on every bit of kit donated. Why can't they just have a really nasty surprise on the day?

[speculation]I would not sure they are getting a heads up on every bit of kit. [/speculation].

TBF western governments are under a bit of a pressure to be seen to be doing something (cf. many previous posts).....

Not just me who think its The MiGs...

Phillips P OBrien@phillipspobrien
Well this is easily the most interesting news of the day, if the speaker is referring to fixed wing aircraft. Hard to imagine what that would be other than the MiGs. Hopeful indeed.

Just a guess, but the Spokesperson clearly didn’t say helicopter, when in the past a distinction was clearly drawn between helicopters and fixed wing. I’m guessing the Donbas campaign has focussed minds and NATO/US really wants to get aid that helps Ukraine, and that’s MiGs now.

Second tweet in the thread really makes this sound like MiGs transferred from Eastern European countries.

Should be noted that if these are the MiGs, Ukraine has received basically everything it asked for a week ago, fixed wing, anti air, artillery, APCs, some tanks (Czech ones) etc.

This is a testimony to two things. How Ukrainian resistance has made Ukrainian survival a political imperative for NATO countries, and how Russian war crimes have made it possible to send more advanced equipment. Another Putin disaster.

Magic I get that but how much genocide and war crimes are palatable? Do we watch a total destruction of a sovereign nation in Europe where Russia inevitably moves further west? Then what?

That's what im saying is maybe we need to bite the bullet for future long term peace rather than trying to grasp immediate short lived peace. It's a quandary, for sure.

I still don't get why Russia has to have heads up on every bit of kit donated. Why can't they just have a really nasty surprise on the day?

All very odd, we can can send nlaws, starstreaks and artillery that destroy Russian tanks, planes and gun emplacements BUT cannot send MiGs in case they destroy Russian Tanks plane's etc etc....

Even more odd when you consider Russia told the West that any interference would lead to nuclear conflict in Europe... and yet we have and are still here.

I know, I completely understand your point. I guess if Russia were to move further that would mean engaging directly with NATO. And let's hope it doesn't happen. The problem with Ukraine is that it's been this awful sacrificial buffer zone

Michael Bond @HelloMrBond
Summary
OSINT % losses of Russian Committed (Russian total) vs Ukrainian total
Personnel 32.1(6.8) vs 10.4
Armor 41(8.6) vs 11.4
Tanks 42.2(15.3) vs 14.5
Artillery 13.8(3.9) vs 3.5
Aircraft 6.4(1.5) vs 13.6
Helicopters 14.2(3.5) vs 8.7

Scale of claims vs observations
Russian claims of Ukrainian loss % vs OSINT observed loss % (factor)
Personnel 20.3 vs 10.4 (2x)
Armor + Tanks 68.9 vs 12.2 (5.6x)
Artillery 68.6 vs 3.5 (19.6x)
Aircraft 100+ vs 13.6 (7.4x)
Helicopter 100+ vs 8.7 (11.5x)

Scale of claims vs observations
UKR claims of RU(Cmtd) loss % vs OSINT observed loss % (factor)
Personnel 43.3 vs 32.1 (1.9x)
Armor 69 vs 41 (1.7x)
Tanks 64.4 vs 42.2 (1.5x)
Artillery 31.4 vs 13.8 (2.3x)
Aircraft 50 vs 6.4 (7.8x)
Helicopters 60.8 vs 14.2 (4.3x)

@Alexandra2001 could it be that there are clearer rules on what interference means that we're not aware of as the general public?

[quote MagicFox]@Alexandra2001 could it be that there are clearer rules on what interference means that we're not aware of as the general public?[/quote]
I think more likely is that we keep pushing a little bit at a time and judge the reaction.

@strawberriesarenot

I still don't get why Russia has to have heads up on every bit of kit donated. Why can't they just have a really nasty surprise on the day?

Well given there was photos of MiGs in bits on the backs of lorries a few days back, all over twitter I am not sure it matters about the MiGs.

Plus the Russians have satellite and aircraft flight radar too.

I think its probably fairly easy for Russia to know about this, without having to wait for the official us confirmation....

I know, I completely understand your point. I guess if Russia were to move further that would mean engaging directly with NATO. And let's hope it doesn't happen. The problem with Ukraine is that it's been this awful sacrificial buffer zone

Yep I don't want to see that beautiful country destroyed. Nor lose their citizens to Putin, who have absolutely proved themselves worthy of our full protection.

Ukraine, if successful, will be a wonderful, strong part of Europe in the future and an ally to depend on. We must help them survive this.

@Alexandra2001

@notimagain If the equipment can be sent now, it could have been early, i doubt they have been training up Ukrainian forces on how to drive a Humvee for the last 6 weeks. Training for advanced kit should have started earlier... we were arguing this point 2 weeks ago....

It would certainly help bring the argument to a close if I knew what magic kit you have on your shopping list.

I'm sure most troops could hop into a Humvee but is that on Kiev'sl ist ?

Anything more complex than that and you have to factor in two/three weeks back were the Ukraine army in a position to release people back from the front line to do anything other than a half day course on driving/shooting/maintenance/rearming anything new?

Still no action on the MiG's, yes i get that Ukraine might use a different variant but from my limited googling, seems the ex Warsaw pact countries used basically the same multi role '29 and Poland didn't fill it with Western avionics.

The basic MiG-29 was sold as multi role but that doesn't mean every single airframe was multi-role...over the years there were about 20 different variants produced....and not being absolutely on top of the fine details of "your" variant will kill a pilot very quickly in combat. I'd speculate one reason for any delay in any procurement of "MiGs" is inventories are being combed to find available examples of variants closest to those the Ukrainians would regard as "native", and even then there might maybe the need for some equipment to be removed by the donor country before the airframe is handed over if there are technology transfer issues.

FWIW the Polish MiG-29s had a joint Polish/Israeli avionics/systems upgrade about ten years back.