Michael A. Horowitz @michaelh992
As of now, the offensive did not lead to any significant change (still early). It started with a heavy artillery barrage. Russia also claims to have carried out a series of "high-precision" missile strikes on targets in the Donbass.
Jimmy @JimmySecUK
This pretty much echoes my understand of the situation: Russia's offensive in the Donbas doesn't look like it's made any big gains so far (with the caveat it's still early and we're operating with imperfect information).
This is probably already worrying Moscow as typically the first few hours/days of an offensive are when you'd expect to make the largest gains - your units should be at the highest levels of combat readiness/effectiveness and they should know exactly what they're doing.
There's obviously an open question as to how effective units relocated from the Kyiv/Sumy/Cherniv fronts can actually be: like many, I was surprised to see elements of the 4th Guards Tank Division apparently preparing to take part in this offensive - they've taken massive losses.
Fundamentally even with vastly more limited aims there's no guarantee this army can actually achieve these aims: none of the problems we saw in the first few weeks of the war have been fixed. C2 is still poor, morale is awful, they don't have air superiority, etc. etc.
And a thread with a bit of a counter point that the Russians like to wear down first:
Mark Hertling @MarkHertling
Russia has begun shelling w/ artillery.
RU doctrine emphasizes leading w/ massive arty prep. It's what they do.
Artillery is "imprecise." It hits areas, not targets (unless it's precision guided).
Each size shell has a CEP (circular area of probability) for killing. 1/7
Artillery is a physical & psychological weapon:
-Those who fire arty don't "see" the target (other than on plots). Those on the receiving end know it's incoming when it strikes.
-Arty can kill, maim, cause concussions & bleeding ears.
But most of all, they cause fear. 2/
RU artillery can fire ranges up to about 30 miles (if they use rocket assisted projectiles, or RAP) to 22-50 miles (like the Uragan multiple launched rocket systems)
The only way to stop: find them (through counter-fire radar or overhead drones), then fire at them. 3/
The purposes of arty prep fire is to kill, cause confusion, create chaos & open terrain for others (tank/infantry) to pass through (the "breakthrough).
Artillery must fire from stationary positions.
They need lots of resupply & they're easy to spot.
And RU has lots of it. 4/
Ukraine also has artillery - tubed and rockets. Just not as much as the Russians.
UA also has Q36 counter-fire radars, below left, to "find" RU artillery locations. RU has 1L259 (right)
UA has proven themselves very competent in connecting intel to targeting. 5/
RU artillery prep can last hours, days, or weeks (depending on amount of ammo).
They will likely "stagger" their prep in different areas along the front line of the Donbas, so UA must be prepared for RU ground force breakthrough at many points along the front. 6/
I suspect RU may use their arty prep to "buy time" for their forces to continue to regenerate & form in the Donbas.
Ukraine will conduct spoiling attacks against logistics columns to prevent the Russians from supplying and moving their forces.
More to follow. 7/7