Ukraine Invasion: Part 21

[MagicFox]

Another thread, thank you to all

@notimagain We can go around this argument forever but this war keeps on rolling.

The sooner we start training the better or we will be six months down the road and it will still "Can't do that, they aren't trained" a system in question would be Patriot, Starstreak has a very limited range.

We need to look for creative solutions, not look for barriers to do nothing.

@notimagain

Backs up your point on the MiGs

www.19fortyfive.com/2022/03/can-ukrainian-pilots-fly-polands-upgraded-mig-29-fighter-planes/

BUT also means we need to get on with it too.... stop prevaricating.

www.itv.com/news/2022-04-19/in-putins-heartland-russian-mothers-mourn-their-sons-killed-in-ukraine
In Putin’s heartland, Russian mothers mourn their sons killed in Ukraine

Adopted aged 10 into the Archakov family, he was raised in a village named Komary, meaning Mosquito in Russian, which is almost entirely off the grid. Down a bumping mud road, sometimes impassable, villagers have no gas, limited phone signal and internet. They heat their wooden homes with giant ovens, smoke curling from chimneys above chickens which peck in the dirt to the sound of cockerels crowing.

Sergey Muraviev left this village aged 18 to become a mechanic, fixing armoured personnel carriers before he joined the army aged 20.

And

State television praises Russian soldiers who are shown freeing Ukrainians from their fascist government. It is a government which, many Russians believe, has been killing Russian-speaking Ukrainian citizens for the last eight years since the war in Ukraine first began.

With limited communication to the world, the villagers here are receptive to the message.

And

This is Vladimir Putin’s heartland.

^In the villages and towns of this region, people are poor. Some of them can see the giant pipeline which takes gas to Europe but not to them. They say that Putin has ordered the state energy company Gazprom to connect them to the pipeline.
Just as Putin cares for them, they believe he cares for the people of Ukraine.^

@RedToothBrush

Michael Bond *@HelloMrBond* Summary OSINT % losses of Russian Committed (Russian total) vs Ukrainian total Personnel 32.1(6.8) vs 10.4 Armor 41(8.6) vs 11.4 Tanks 42.2(15.3) vs 14.5 Artillery 13.8(3.9) vs 3.5 Aircraft 6.4(1.5) vs 13.6 Helicopters 14.2(3.5) vs 8.7

Scale of claims vs observations
Russian claims of Ukrainian loss % vs OSINT observed loss % (factor)
Personnel 20.3 vs 10.4 (2x)
Armor + Tanks 68.9 vs 12.2 (5.6x)
Artillery 68.6 vs 3.5 (19.6x)
Aircraft 100+ vs 13.6 (7.4x)
Helicopter 100+ vs 8.7 (11.5x)

Scale of claims vs observations
UKR claims of RU(Cmtd) loss % vs OSINT observed loss % (factor)
Personnel 43.3 vs 32.1 (1.9x)
Armor 69 vs 41 (1.7x)
Tanks 64.4 vs 42.2 (1.5x)
Artillery 31.4 vs 13.8 (2.3x)
Aircraft 50 vs 6.4 (7.8x)
Helicopters 60.8 vs 14.2 (4.3x)

Not sure I know how to read these figures.

Unless I am mistaken, it looks like Ukraine has sustained relatively heavy losses (starting from a smaller numerical base) and Russia has not lost quite as many aircraft and helicopters as Ukraine claims.

This ties in with the I've had about the numbers of visas issued to Ukrainian refugees - about which the government boasts - compared to the number of refugees that have actually arrived

....because not everyone in a family group is getting a visa

At best, it's incompetence, at worst as is suggested in this article, that there is "a pattern" it is a cynical ploy

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/govt-homes-for-ukraine-helpline-giving-false-information/

[quote Alexandra2001]@notimagain We can go around this argument forever but this war keeps on rolling.

The sooner we start training the better or we will be six months down the road and it will still "Can't do that, they aren't trained" a system in question would be Patriot, Starstreak has a very limited range.

We need to look for creative solutions, not look for barriers to do nothing.[/quote]
OK...Without outing myself...with regard to the never ending shouts of just send Migs..can I provide some insight and at least put an end to that bit of this argument?

When I was younger and even more more stupid than now I spent quite a few years flying a NATO multirole supersonic fighter....

The aircraft was produced in it's thousands and there were (top of head) about a dozen major variants.

I could have jumped into just two of those twelve' ish variants without any retraining and recognised the cockpit layout and flown the aircraft "out of the box"..... Most if not all of the others it would have been a case of jumping in and going: "well I recognise that handle gets the gear up and down, and I think I know this switch/gauge does but as for that panel over there or those indicators in the corner........"

On anything other than my native variants possibly months of retraining required to be in the least bit combat effective.

The other complication was we had some equipment onboard that we would not have wanted other NATO operators of the same multi-role aircraft to know about and I know other nations were similarly protective of their assets on the same type.. so that's why I mentioned technology transfer risks upthread.

So IMHO and for what little it's worth it's not a case of the lack of MiGs being down to a lack of imagination, or effort by "the west", this really is something potentially a lot more complicated and difficult to do than some on Goggle/wiki/Twitter/in the MSM who can perhaps barely drive a car would lead you to believe....

I honestly and really hope any airframes arrive PDQ but I don't see how it could have been done any earlier...and I'd suspect there will be similar problems with supplying some of the other high end kit but that's for the likes of the artillery/AFV specialists to comment on.

So, that's my take on "just send MiGs" but, hey, what do I know?

@MagicFox

Yes but there is a reason why Ukraine is not in NATO. And this presumes that NATO is doing nothing, which isn't the case. It's awful to watch, it's awful. But the implications of NATO putting boots on the ground have been explored in detail here, as well as the reasons as to why it can't happen.

Once again, I completely agree with you. As for the comments regarding the Russian contingent getting the low down on every single bit of kit going to Ukraine, I am sure that there is a lot going on behind the scenes that we don’t get to hear about.

Once again, I completely agree with you. As for the comments regarding the Russian contingent getting the low down on every single bit of kit going to Ukraine, I am sure that there is a lot going on behind the scenes that we don’t get to hear about.

I hope that there is loads of weapons being transferred to Ukraine behind the scenes that the West cannot talk about because what is going to Ukraine does not seem adequate for a sustained offensive war.

Caveat: I know nothing.

[quote prettybird]This ties in with the I've had about the numbers of visas issued to Ukrainian refugees - about which the government boasts - compared to the number of refugees that have actually arrived

....because not everyone in a family group is getting a visa

At best, it's incompetence, at worst as is suggested in this article, that there is "a pattern" it is a cynical ploy

[[https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/govt-homes-for-ukraine-helpline-giving-false-information]]/[/quote]
Can I add to that, Prettybird. Many of us involved suspect it’s not just the family group issue but also that the visa counts as issued before you have actually received it. We were told 6 days ago ours were ‘issued’ but our sponsees still haven’t had the email to collect them. More disingenuousness from the government on this.
Sorry I know this is a distraction from the main purpose of the thread, I’ll shut up now.

Ilya Matveev @Ilyamatveev_
Rare glimpses of honesty from senior Russian officials. (Another 🧵 on sanctions.)

Elvira Nabiullina, head of the Central Bank: logistical blockade hurts even more than financial sanctions. Supply chains are broken. (1/11)

Inventories will run out very soon and inflation will soar. (2/11)

Sergei Sobyanin, mayor of Moscow: 200,000 people are at risk of losing jobs in Moscow alone. (3/11)

Andrei Belousov, deputy prime minister [this one wasn't reported in the West, but it's crucial]: economic stimulus to fight the crisis without risking further inflation is limited to 7-8 trln rubles and the government has already reached this limit. (4/11)

Thus there's not much room to further stimulate the economy financially. (5/11)

Overall: economic sanctions are very effective at disrupting the Russian economy. Whether they can weaken the war machine is another matter. There are two factors: 1) overall military budget, 2) dependence on imports in the military-industrial complex. (6/11)

Regarding the first factor: I don't think anything short of complete energy embargo can reduce military spending, and even that might not do it. (7/11)

Second factor is trickier, however. Military production is very opaque and no one will disclose import dependency there, obviously, but there is some indirect evidence. (8/11)

E.g. Dmitry Rogozin, then deputy prime minister, admitted in 2014 that 640 Russian military products require components from NATO and EU countries. (9/11)

There were plans to substitute most of these imports by 2018, but, knowing the general ineptitude of Russian economic policy, I seriously doubt that this goal was reached. (10/11)

Bottom line: logistical and other export-oriented sanctions likely disrupt supply chains in the military industry and therefore should stay. (11/11)

@TheCountessofFitzdotterel - I did wonder that too, although that wasn't the focus of the LBC piece.

And it's not a distraction from this thread: the thread is about Ukraine - and that includes how its displaced people are treated

Interesting notimagain.

Also how even NATO members want to conceal from each other.

@notimagain I find your posts on this matter really informative, so thank you.

Wrt weapons being sent to Ukraine in general I think there is far more complexity that I can begin to fathom.

From what is effective (and available) now, what Ukrainians can be trained to use in the short to mid term and frankly what NATO thinks it can afford to give. I'm not talking just about monetary value here, but also the risk of high end kit (that might not be effective in Ukrainian hands if they can't use it properly) ending up falling to the Russians and finally not depleting our weapon stocks if we are drawn further into this war.

What I am sure of is that there are lots of people with the necessary knowledge working on this and we won't be privy to add the info fir reasons of national security.

However fwiw I think NATO is resolved to helping Ukraine to win this war and any holding back on weapons is with good reason and not a lack of will.

@PaperTyger

Interesting notimagain.

Also how even NATO members want to conceal from each other.

Well if you've spent billions on development you don't really want to give that away for free do you?

You might be willing to share with an ally (for a price) but even then I doubt you're going to hand over a full box of tricks.

I'm also guessing there's a knock on impact.

For example if you give details of the config of your jets serving on your flagship carrier it could also give away crucial information about the capabilities of the carrier itself presumably? Question as not an expert but it's logical in my brain....

So if your jets can/can't do xyz the question becomes why they do/don't need to do that - what else have you got up your sleeve or what's that compensating for?

I guess my final though is one of trust. Allies don't always remain so, as such it's always going to be wise to have independent capability that's "unknown" in the detail.

Just when I thought the UK government couldn't possibly enrage me more...

Has anyone else read this article?

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-war-nato-ukraine-b2061001.html?amp

Im a bit confused considering all the news we’ve heard about how shocking the Russian army is and considering how much military aid we’ve provided to Ukraine. It’s surprising to hear the opinion that NATO and the U.K. aren’t ready for a war with Russia and would be “flattened” in a week. Also can’t say I’m thrilled that they’re openly saying we have very little in what we could do in the event missiles were launched against London. Why make this public knowledge? Aware it’s only one man’s opinion but doesnt this just kind or ruin any deterrence against Russia going further than Ukraine too?

Well, he's retired. But yes I'm unsettled by his allusion to a world war - a conventional war where Russia attacks the UK.

@notimagain Just seems like more barriers to me "we can't do this, we can't do that"
All i'm reading at the moment is negativity

The excuse given not to send these planes wasn't training but the Americans didn't want them flying from a US base, the Ukrainians doing the asking didn't raise these concerns.

Meanwhile, the destruction of Ukraine continues.

If training on any equipment is the issue, then get on with it (where possible) this war is almost certain to go on for many more months, possibly years.

The reports this morning are that there are cilivilians at the Azovstal steel works complex - I don't think that had been reported previously.

On FlightRadar24 a Ukrainian airways plane has taken off from Chisinau heading for Tel Aviv so maybe that's part of the diplomatic efforts going on.

Great, now John Simpson thinks it's going to kick off in Taiwan: https://twitter.com/johnsimpsonnews/status/1516458813578170376?s=21&t=OV6m9PvPQhKRQpsUyA5wFA

I hate how we can see the potential groundwork for wider global conflict being laid. It makes me 🤢

Germany getting a LOT of criticism today

This is one thread

Thomas C Theiner
Timeline of Germany's @OlafScholz's many lies:

1) At the end of February Germany's defense industry sends Scholz a long list of all available weapons.
2) Scholz doesn't share the list with Ukraine.
3) Scholz says that there are no more weapons left in Germany to give to Ukraine.
4) Germany's defense industry leakes the list to Ukraine's ambassador.
5) Scholz says that the weapons on the list don't work.
6) The defense industry denies this and leakes the list to the press.
7) Scholz states Ukrainians can't master the weapons in the available time.
8) German defense experts tell the German press that Ukrainians can master the weapons in 2-3 weeks.
9) Scholz says the weapons are needed by NATO and NATO must approve their transfer.
10) NATO officials and German generals deny this.
11) Scholz says no other NATO/EU ally is delivering heavy weapons to Ukraine.
12) The US, UK, Australia, Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, Romania, Turkey, Italy, Finland, Denmark, Romania, Netherlands, etc. publish the lists of heavy weapon they deliver to Ukraine.
13) Under pressure Scholz announces €2 billion for Ukraine's military.
14) German parliamentarians find out that it's really just €1 billion, which won't be available for another 2-3 months, and then Scholz can veto or delay indefinitely every item Ukraine wants to buy.
15) The US, France, Poland, Romania, Japan, the UK and Italy, plus the heads of EU and NATO spend an afternoon trying to talk sense into Scholz.
16) Scholz makes a statement and says Ukraine can have the €1 billion now and order whatever it wants from the list.
17) Ukraine's ambassador says that Scholz removed all the items Ukraine actually wants from the list before giving it to Ukraine and what remains on the list is just a fraction of the €1 billion.

Scholz isn't incompetent or mendacious... he just works for the russians.

I don't know the accuracy of the above. I think its safe to say there is a huge amount of foot dragging going on though and a growing frustration from other countries (todays British newspapers have the same theme over front pages today).

It now feels like there is rising anger growing.

(mns new format is buggy as hell so i can't put the at on this. I keep losing messages as it is)

@YorkshireLondonMiss The UK alongside most of Europe, has been cutting defence since the 1990's.
We doubled our air presence in eastern europe recently.... from 3 planes to 6 !

We don't have more, even worse with navy and infantry.

I 've been involved with the MOD at Devonport since 2000, the size of the yard and its capability has been dramatically reduced, most of it turned over to housing.
The Navy has 19 destroyers, far less than even Japan and our infantry is 23k, shortly going to be cut to 19k.

We are reliant on the USA.

Makes sense. Nato weapons stockpiles are low and capacity to replace is currently low. Give it 6 months and production will be much higher.

We've been dealing with terrorism more than fighting conventional wars and defence spending has been repeatedly cut.

This is AFP reporting this

ph.news.yahoo.com/taiwan-tv-station-apologises-over-061921078.html
Taiwan TV station apologises over false Chinese war blunder

A Taiwanese television station apologised Wednesday for "causing public panic" after erroneously running a series of alerts saying China had launched attacks on the island.

Taiwan's 23 million people live under constant threat of an invasion by China, which views the self-ruled democratic island as part of its territory to be re-taken one day, by force if necessary.

Taipei-based Chinese Television System (CTS) sparked alarm after running several news alerts on its screen including "New Taipei City hit by Communist army's guided missiles" and "Vessels exploded, facilities and ships damaged in Taipei port".

like wtf.