Ukraine Invasion: Part 21

[MagicFox]

Another thread, thank you to all

I am praying too

I’m not even religious but please God, give Ukraine the strength to make it through the night & the coming nights ❤️My heart is breaking for them all

@Shuuu

I’m not even religious but please God, give Ukraine the strength to make it through the night & the coming nights ❤️My heart is breaking for them all

Same here. I have not set foot in a Church for over 10 years, but have been twice since this all started.

I'm not religious so I won't be praying.

I will be thinking of the troops in Ukraine tonight and will continue to send donations and offer support in my community to families fleeing the war.

Given my academic history I shouldn't be surprised that one man can be responsible for such atrocities.

Yet here we are. We ignored Putin's growing sense of invincibility as he displaced so many people in Syria, Crimea and Donbas.

It's a well trodden path of so many dictators where they "nibble" around edges to fool you into thinking they don't intend to gobble their goal whole.

Putin won't back down.

Peace means nothing to him because he values nothing above his own hold on Russia and the dream that the kleptocracy he's built is invincible.

Yy bread.😢
Same.
But my reading of history makes me cross that no one saw this coming.
Changing leaders so fast doesn't help.

The Nibble is of course also testing.

Like anyone anywhere, the child/student pushing boundaries

from just over 6 hours ago:

Key Takeaways

Russian forces likely began large-scale offensive operations in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts focused on Rubizhne, Popasna, and Marinka.
Russian forces may be able to gain ground through the heavy concentration of artillery and numbers. However, Russian operations are unlikely to be dramatically more successful than previous major offensives around Kyiv. The Russian military is unlikely to have addressed the root causes—poor coordination, the inability to conduct cross-country operations, and low morale—that impeded prior offensives.
Successful Ukrainian counterattacks southeast of Kharkiv will likely force Russian forces to divert some units intended for the Izyum offensive, but Ukrainian forces are unlikely to completely sever Russian lines of communication north of Izyum in the coming days.
Ukrainian defenders in Mariupol continued to hold out against heavy Russian artillery and air bombardment.

mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1516310924944105473

The Kyiv Independent
@KyivIndependent
⚡️ Pentagon: No indication that Western weapons have been destroyed in Russian attack on Lviv.

Earlier, Russia claimed it had destroyed a warehouse with U.S. military aid to Ukraine in its missile strike on Lviv on April 18.

Well that's good news at least

Really hope Ukraine can hold out in Donbas area, I don't really pray but hopeful thoughts anyway

apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-europe-world-news-kharkiv-8814f08f0308291da9df160292270bb7?utm_medium=AP&utm_source=Twitter&utm_campaign=SocialFlow
Not my life: An apartment block reflects the new Ukraine

Story about life in Lviv for those who lived there before and those who have been displaced.

Thanks for the last link @RedToothBrush.
Those stories are very moving.

Max Seddon
The governor of Ukrainian-controlled Luhansk urges locals to evacuate in the face of Russia's offensive.

"Save your lives, don't become cheap labor or mobilized into the opposition troops. The Russians are killing everyone who's against them on the spot."
t.co/2IbJna6WfO

Euromaidan
Russia again offers the defenders of Mariupol to surrender: for the third time since the beginning of April. Russia's Defense Ministry has asked the Ukrainian military, which is defending Azovstal, to lay down their arms and surrender from 2pm to 4 pm today.

Lavrov has confirmed phase 2 has begun

Mark Urban @markurban01
Well, no doubt Phase 2 has started now. It's one thing Zelensky and Lavrov seem to agree on. So what to look out for in the battle for the Donbas? 1/

The Ukrainians know the fighting ground well and have some excellent units there but these have already taken losses. They are considerably further away from sources of supply than those that fought for Kyiv - also... 2/

There must be questions now about the West's ability to keep supplying advanced anti-tank and anti-air weapons in the weeks going forward, the stocks held by Nato have limits. But Russia has big problems also 3/

Dozens of Russian units have suffered losses: of people and illusions about their own capabilities. It will be very hard to motivate them forward. Even if Mariupol falls soon that will only free half a dozen or so exhausted battalion groups 4/

More open terrain offers scope for bigger advances if RU forces break through anywhere, but it will also expose their armour to all manner of losses from UA artillery, tanks, missiles, & mines as they try 5/

If the Russians lose people and vehicles at the rate they did in the Kyiv battle, they will run out of momentum in a week or two, leaving the Kremlin with fundamental questions about how to continue the war (escalation to use of WMD? national mobilisation?) 6/

But if Phase 2 ends with stalemate, Ukraine will face difficult questions also, about how to recover lost territory in the east & south when this conflict has shown how hard it is to gain ground. That could create an opening for talks or simply set the scene for Phase 3 7/END

By all accounts it was quieter for missiles last night than was expected.

Other than the big 20km advance by the Russians last night I've not really seen much about losses /gains yet.

Apparently the Russians are attacking along a 300km front.

The article about Lviv was very moving. I hope Ukraine can hold out in the Donbas. Praying for Ukraine and the defenders of Mariupol.

@DGRossetti Let's hope we can reduce or eliminate European reliance on Russian gas and oil. Even if we can't stop completely, every less rouble on gas is less for Russia's war machine. I think we can have a good crack at it. We need to spend this summer trying to insulate homes before next winter, try and increase domestic solar, speed up new wind farmsand try and get consumers to reduce demand. Not everyone can (especially at the moment, with prices so high, many can barely afford to put the heating on, let alone have room to reduce it), but many of us will be able to make even small changes.

Presumably as the weeks pass, it will be increasingly difficult for even young and naive Russian conscripts to remain ignorant that what they are being required to do is kill civilians ie women and children?

@herecomesthsun

Presumably as the weeks pass, it will be increasingly difficult for even young and naive Russian conscripts to remain ignorant that what they are being required to do is kill civilians ie women and children?

True but do they care?

@herecomesthsun

Presumably as the weeks pass, it will be increasingly difficult for even young and naive Russian conscripts to remain ignorant that what they are being required to do is kill civilians ie women and children?

A casual trawl of this forum alone reveals how many people choose to be ignorant.

Russian conscripts must surely know by now, however naive. And I can't believe that the general population aren't mostly aware. It's one thing to say, 'Russia controls media and information' but that must naturally lead to the question of why tv/press are so controlled. The rush to leave Russia by young professionals also can't be unknown. Nor the past record of the army in other countries.
It seems to me that most of the population must know to some extent and either approve/don't care/are too afraid to protest.

The other thing I don't understand is the original expectations of the Russian government. Did they mean to eliminate the universities, the industry, agriculture? Did they really believe they would be accepted, or did they plan from the start to make a desert and call it peace?

Also, did they anticipate that the US and Europe would arm and support Ukraine? I know they prepared for sanctions and saved up for this war for years. I heard they bought up goldmines in Africa.

It all seems so hopeless. Even if Ukraine survive, how can they be rebuilt? It seems that we are making empty offers to help when we can't even keep our schools and hospitals in decent repair, let alone house people as we should. After WW1, Germany was forced to pay for reparations, and to cede land. It led directly to WW2.

I wish I understood more.

Here is an idea how to fund the rebuild

Kyiv Independent
Infrastructure Minister Kubrakov: Russia has destroyed $100 billion worth of infrastructure in Ukraine since Feb. 24.

Ukraine's infrastructure can be rebuilt in two years if Russian assets that have been seized around the world are used to finance it, according to Kubrakov.

Also, did they anticipate that the US and Europe would arm and support Ukraine?

I can easily understand why they thought the West - particularly the toxic US-UK pairing - might do fuck all. If we aren't prepared to save our own democracy why bother with anyone elses ?

@@kRedToothBrush

apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-europe-world-news-kharkiv-8814f08f0308291da9df160292270bb7?utm_medium=AP&utm_source=Twitter&utm_campaign=SocialFlow
Not my life: An apartment block reflects the new Ukraine

Story about life in Lviv for those who lived there before and those who have been displaced.

Thank you for that article. It opens one’s eyes to the reality of how difficult their lives are under this reign of horror - and how each family is affected by it in individual ways.

Good grief I had not realised how much had been seized.

@DuncinToffee

Here is an idea how to fund the rebuild

Kyiv Independent
Infrastructure Minister Kubrakov: Russia has destroyed $100 billion worth of infrastructure in Ukraine since Feb. 24.

Ukraine's infrastructure can be rebuilt in two years if Russian assets that have been seized around the world are used to finance it, according to Kubrakov.

Ooo that would be a very appropriate way to rebuild Ukraine!

@herecomesthsun

Presumably as the weeks pass, it will be increasingly difficult for even young and naive Russian conscripts to remain ignorant that what they are being required to do is kill civilians ie women and children?

https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1516018666692923392?s=21&t=2Vrz0UhRxSHSYOjIE0JfoQ

I'm not sure they would be unhappy with that

Long thread with a good update on the military situation in Ukraine as the battle for Donbas has begun.

twitter.com/JominiW/status/1516276200540459016?t=XjD6kPyUgCWhpjIp4mHHXg&s=19
1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 52-54: The past 72 hrs. have seen Russian forces reduce Ukrainian defenses in Mariupol to the Azovstal area. Ukrainian forces around Kharkiv launch several successful counterattacks while Russia builds forces near Izium.