Ukraine Invasion: Part 20

[HappyWinter]

Thanks to everyone for taking part in the thread.

Navalny has posted an idea that I really hope that can be made to happen

twitter.com/navalny/status/1514589869204508675

An advertising campaign within Russia.

@Ijsbear

Navalny has posted an idea that I really hope that can be made to happen

twitter.com/navalny/status/1514589869204508675

An advertising campaign within Russia.

But run by real people, not obvious bots. (Makes it harder to filter out too).

I hope Navalny's idea takes off.

I have been thinking of all the Russian sportspeople, no longer able to compete internationally. I wish they could. If they were invited back into the international sporting world, their government would either have to forbid them competing, and explain why to the population, or permit it, and put up with high profile highly influential people coming back to Russia with a totally alternative view of what is happening in Ukraine.

@strawberriesarenot

I hope Navalny's idea takes off.

I have been thinking of all the Russian sportspeople, no longer able to compete internationally. I wish they could. If they were invited back into the international sporting world, their government would either have to forbid them competing, and explain why to the population, or permit it, and put up with high profile highly influential people coming back to Russia with a totally alternative view of what is happening in Ukraine.

At the risk of denting such ideas, the UK is a "democracy" and can't shift it's incompetent lawbreaking PM.

And the US is a "democracy" and still couldn't deal with their criminal president.

So I can't really see what can be achieved in Russia.

strawberries they'll only allow people with the right political views, as in the USSR times. Otherwise it'd be a great idea :/

No need to do that.

They'll just hold their families hostage under pain of good behaviour. You know like the Chinese do.

DGRossetti

Trump has gone and Johnson is surely going.

If the popular support for the war goes down then that's yet another problem for the Russian govt along with the actual war, the economy and presumably a great deal of stress among the upper echelons.

Sadly the report about Sergei Shoigu and his heart attack came from an oligarch who very much fell foul of Putin and far from neutral on the matter, which was then picked up in the Daily Mail. It's not necessarily a reliable report.

Phillips P OBrien@phillipspobrien
Well if the report below is right, the Russians are still a long way from having enough force for a big encirclement of the Donbas (which they might not ever have). Pentagon saying there are only 65 Russian BTGs in Ukraine.

Luis martinez @lmartinezabc
There are 65 Russian BTG's in all of Ukraine right now focused on south and east says sr. US defense official. Recall that Russia had amassed 130 BTG's prior to invasion.

Phillips P OBrien@phillipspobrien
There has been a rather marked decrease in the estimates of Russian BTGs in Ukraine. Last week the spokesmen claimed (it what now looks to be an extraordinary intelligence error) that the Russians had 40 BTGs in the eastern region (basically Kharkiv to Izyum).

The two days ago there was a claim that there were 55 or so BTGs in the southern arc from Kherson to Mariupol.

Now we have 65 BTGs in all of Ukraine. Something really has come off the rails in intelligence. Points out two basic things that have great importance.

1) the Ukrainians have either destroyed or forced to withdraw about half the army the Russians originally sent into Ukraine.

2) the Russian army in Ukraine is too weak without major reinforcement to keep up any offensive operations considering it’s supposed to block Kharkiv, head down from Izyum, potentially move up to Dnipro (bizarre claim at the time), take Mariupol, and hold Kherson.

Alex Marquardt @marquardta
CIA Director Burns on Russia: "none of us can take lightly the threat posed by a potential resort to tactical nuclear weapons...so far we haven't seen a lot of practical evidence of the kind of deployments or military dispositions that would reinforce that concern..."

Burns said Putin's "risk appetite has grown as his grip on Russia has tightened...His circle of advisors has narrowed...it has never been career-enhancing to question his judgment or his stubborn, almost mystical belief that his destiny is to restore Russia's sphere of influence"

Kyiv Independent

Ukraine's General Staff: Russia fails to mobilize enough military personnel in North Caucasus.

Locals don't want to fight in the war against Ukraine, according to Ukrainian intelligence data.

According to Ukraine's general staff, due to acute shortage of military personnel, Russia plans to conduct a nationwide mobilization in parallel with the spring conscription, running from April 1 and until July 15.

his almost mystical belief that his destiny is to restore Russia's sphere of influence

Tragically not really working out though….Unless ‘sphere of influence’ means something particular to him not shared with the rest of the world.

@DuncinToffee

Kyiv Independent

Ukraine's General Staff: Russia fails to mobilize enough military personnel in North Caucasus.

Locals don't want to fight in the war against Ukraine, according to Ukrainian intelligence data.

According to Ukraine's general staff, due to acute shortage of military personnel, Russia plans to conduct a nationwide mobilization in parallel with the spring conscription, running from April 1 and until July 15.

July 15th. So not planning for peace then.

Rory Stewart on the government's plan to offshore asylum seekers to Rwanda.

"This is a distraction.... as it's been designed to land on the front page of newspapers to distract people from Boris Johnson's troubles"

@DuncinToffee

Rory Stewart on the government's plan to offshore asylum seekers to Rwanda.

"This is a distraction.... as it's been designed to land on the front page of newspapers to distract people from Boris Johnson's troubles"

Oops wrong thread

Even if they do conscription will that necessarily boost morale? I know they’re just pumped full of propaganda but surely the majority of people don’t want to be yanked out of their normal lives to fight and potentially die still?

Still relevant, though, Duncin.

The UK's double-standard about refugees from Ukrainian vs elsewhere is something that will be noted in the rest of the world. It's also exactly the sort of thing Putin's propaganda army makes great use of. For Putin, winning in the infosphere is still a win.

@YorkshireLondonMiss

Even if they do conscription will that necessarily boost morale? I know they’re just pumped full of propaganda but surely the majority of people don’t want to be yanked out of their normal lives to fight and potentially die still?

Yes.

You're not talking high quality recruits here. They'd need training for a start and then once they get to the war front, they'll discover what's really going on and morale will probably drop even further than having been forced into the army in the first place.

Numbers can matter, but poorly trained and unwilling soldiers aren't going to be very effective.

Barely trained conscripts going to the frontlines is probably going to result in a fair bit of desertion, friendly fire, and general fuck ups. So good luck to Russia with that plan!

Speaking of conscription, they're planning on changing the system here in Finland a bit and including women in the general call up. Will still be voluntary for women but they'll have to go through the call up system along with their male peers, go through the health checks and whatnot, and I guess they hope it'll result in a bit more women deciding to do military service. Part of the 'increasing our national defence now we know Russia is even more aggressive than previously thought' thing. I sometimes wish I had done it, to see what it was like.

I can imagine it’s quite terrifying if you know you’re of age or coming of age to be honest especially if you’re a more sensitive soul.

CIA Director Burns on Russia: "none of us can take lightly the threat posed by a potential resort to tactical nuclear weapons...so far we haven't seen a lot of practical evidence of the kind of deployments or military dispositions that would reinforce that concern..."

I can't really see a scenario where having launched a nuclear attack, Putin would be in any position to launch a subsequent one. Which rather limits what the only one can do.

Also he needs to be 110% certain that his nuclear arsenal has miraculously escaped the fate of all his other shiny kit.

Hopefully all this is being chattered around the intelligence communities as leakily as possible.

@YorkshireLondonMiss

I can imagine it’s quite terrifying if you know you’re of age or coming of age to be honest especially if you’re a more sensitive soul.

I bet there's a lot of young men in Russia looking for a good way to leave the country right now.

Radio 4
Crossing Continents

www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m00168ln

Russia's Unwelcome New Exiles
Hundreds of thousands of Russians – mainly young and well-educated - have fled abroad since their country invaded Ukraine. It’s the biggest brain drain in a short period of time in Russian history. Some fear a political crackdown. They worry they could be arrested for expressing opposition to the war, and young men might be drafted into the army. Others are escaping economic sanctions, trying to keep their businesses afloat now it’s become hard to transfer money into or out of Russia.

Tim Whewell travels to Russia’s southern neighbour, Georgia, to meet some of the 25,000 Russians who’ve fled there. Some are strong opponents of Vladimir Putin, who are now showing their support for Ukraine by volunteering for a new project by Russian exiles, ‘Helping to Leave’, that organizes evacuations of Ukrainian civilians from the war zone. Others are business people – often in IT, who try to steer clear of politics, but hope they can help Georgia’s economy by creating a new ‘silicon valley’ there.

But Georgia, itself invaded by the Kremlin’s forces in 2008, has a tense relationship with Russia. Georgia’s a hospitable country – but the new arrivals are not universally welcome. Georgians worry that the exiles – often wealthier than local people – will force them out of the property market. And they fear the Russian influx may include spies and provocateurs who might provide Putin with a pretext to intervene there again. The new exiles may sympathise with Ukraine – but do they understand Georgia’s long struggle with Russia?

Also he needs to be 110% certain that his nuclear arsenal has miraculously escaped the fate of all his other shiny kit.

Doubtful, I wouldn't be surprised if they don't have half as many as they think, as someone has lied about building them and creamed off all the profits.

@YorkshireLondonMiss

I can imagine it’s quite terrifying if you know you’re of age or coming of age to be honest especially if you’re a more sensitive soul.

I can’t find it, but wasn’t there something posted here yesterday precisely about this, with an account from a young man hiding in the DPR speaking anonymously? He is living in fear of being conscripted. A friend of his in a similar position is drinking to try to forget the loneliness and fear.