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Ukraine Invasion: Part 17

998 replies

MagicFox · 27/03/2022 07:23

A new place for us to convene, thread 17.

OP posts:
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33
EsmaCannonball · 28/03/2022 16:14

Anonymous has published a Russian document ordering the production of propaganda showing Ukrainians abusing Russian pows. The main reason for the propaganda is concern over the number of Russians surrendering to the Ukrainians.

Ijsbear · 28/03/2022 16:21

I wish, wish, wish that the west would give some tanks to them.

blueshoes · 28/03/2022 16:22

@Ijsbear

I wish, wish, wish that the west would give some tanks to them.
Me too Sad. And aircraft.
Natsku · 28/03/2022 16:23

Anonymous has published a Russian document ordering the production of propaganda showing Ukrainians abusing Russian pows. The main reason for the propaganda is concern over the number of Russians surrendering to the Ukrainians

Might explain those videos then

EsmaCannonball · 28/03/2022 16:26

Bellingcat confirming that Abramovich and Ukrainian negotiators may have suffered chemical poisoning.

notimagain · 28/03/2022 16:51

@blueshoes

There have also been reports from US military intelligence that many of the Russian artillery (missiles?) has not been firing properly [failing in my military-speak]

That’s not a surprise but without the numbers it’s a bit of a Hmm

Just as a general point no weapons system, even a US produced one, is 100% reliable and generally reliability tends to deteriorate in combat as operators perhaps make errors or the kit simply gets kicked around in the mud and/or muck gets in the works…

Strangely AFAIK we are not seeing for example videos of Ukranian forces suffering NLAW or Javelin misfires or the missiles having left the tube on social media…but I’d put my life savings on the fact that there will have been a few duds.

DuncinToffee · 28/03/2022 16:55

@EsmaCannonball

Bellingcat confirming that Abramovich and Ukrainian negotiators may have suffered chemical poisoning.
twitter.com/bellingcat/status/1508463513013997580?t=DbWn24q9lYQUKvbDKSCxDQ&s=09 Bellingcat can confirm that three members of the delegation attending the peace talks between Ukraine and Russia on the night of 3 to 4 March 2022 experienced symptoms consistent with poisoning with chemical weapons. One of victims was Russian entrepreneur Roman Abramovich.
TargusEasting · 28/03/2022 17:00

What struck me also with those numbers is the sheer number of Russian artillery systems. Its going to be a long slog for some Ukrainian cities given that I would have thought.
^Reported Russian Losses, Feb. 24-Mar. 25
Planes 123 of 375 in Ukraine
Helicopters 127 of 240
Artillery systems 302 of 2,300
Tanks 586 of 1,700
Armored vehicles 1,694 of 4,300
Personnel ~17,000 killed of 150,000 (ground force)
Source: Ukrainian Defense Ministry~^

Those equipment numbers all look to be those estimated in Ukraine. There are more in reserve, but we can discount many for being either in poor repair or there are insufficient personnel to operate them.

There are about 1,500 helicopters in the air force, army air corps and fleet arm, with attack helicopters making up about half (or capable of adaption). There are about 17,500 artillery pieces, give or take 2,500 either way. Again, the issue is going to be worthiness and number of available artillerymen. We also do not know how those numbers are classified - could be man portable mortars up to MLRS. If we say halve the number due to unworthiness and halve again for those that cannot be brought into the theatre, there is probably 300 helicopters available and 4500 artillery systems.

It is however anybody's guess. If morale is weak, equipment however much available can never be efficiently engaged. The core Russian troops in the theatre were advised at the last minute that a military exercise was to be extended for a limited purpose. They were told it was to take out some Nazi's and a bit more land. The Ukrainian people on the other hand have had some preparation and know they are fighting for their homes, their existence and their lives. Their reconnaissance, identification of targets and execution is highly efficient and the 5:1 ratio of force needs adjusting for that.

meditrina · 28/03/2022 17:04

@EsmaCannonball

Bellingcat confirming that Abramovich and Ukrainian negotiators may have suffered chemical poisoning.
SKY is carrying no that story too sourcing it to Bellingcat and the Wall Street Journal

It says the incident took place on 3March, and that 'experts' (not further described) said symptoms could be consistent with a CW agent (again not described)

RedToothBrush · 28/03/2022 17:08

Bellingcat @bellingcat
Bellingcat can confirm that three members of the delegation attending the peace talks between Ukraine and Russia on the night of 3 to 4 March 2022 experienced symptoms consistent with poisoning with chemical weapons. One of victims was Russian entrepreneur Roman Abramovich.

Abramovich, along with another Russian entrepreneur, had taken part in the negotiations alongside Ukraine’s MP Rustem Umerov. The negotiation round on the afternoon of 3 March took place on Ukrainian territory, and lasted until about 10 pm.

Three members of the negotiating team retreated to an apartment in Kyiv later that night and felt initial symptoms - including eye and skin inflammation and piercing pain in the eyes - later that night. The symptoms did not abate until the morning.

The next day the group of negotiators drove from Kyiv to Lviv on the way to Poland and then Istanbul, to continue informal negotiations with the Russian side. A Bellingcat investigator was asked to help provide an examination by chemical weapons specialists.

Based on remote and on-site examinations, the experts concluded that the symptoms are most likely the result of international poisoning with an undefined chemical weapon.

An alternative less likely hypothesis was use of microwave irradiation. The symptoms gradually subsided in the course of the following week.

The three men experiencing the symptoms consumed only chocolate and water in the hours before the symptoms appeared. A fourth member of the team who also consumed these did not experience symptoms.

According to two consulted CW experts and a doctor, the symptoms were most consistent with variants of porphyrin, organophosphates, or bicyclic substances. A definitive determination was not possible due to the absence of specialized laboratory equipment near the victims.

The experts said the dosage and type of toxin used was likely insufficient to cause life-threatening damage, and most likely was intended to scare the victims as opposed to cause permanent damage. The victims said they were not aware of who might have had an interest in an attack

^Bellingcat chose not to report this story earlier due to concern about the safety of the victims. Given the choice of the targeted individuals to speak up, Bellingcat and its investigative partner @theinsru
intend to publish an investigation into the presumed poisonings.^

Firstly this story is NOT primarily about Abramovich:

  1. A Ukrainian MP was part of the team. They tried to scare the Ukrainian Peace Makers. That says Russia has no intention of making peace. What would have happened if they HAD killed the delegation?
  2. The who and how is the next big question: Remember this incident happened on UKRAINIAN soil. So how did the poison get there and who administered it? You can't just saunter into Ukraine atm.
  3. How long have the West known about this? We've had lots of comments about expecting chemical attacks and not seeing a chemical attack as a red line (perhaps this is why, because they ALREADY knew one had happened). It changes how you interprete what Western leaders have said, if they had knowledge of this. The fact Bellingcat is involved does suggest that they had early knowledge of the incident.
  4. Then we get to the questions about Abramovich: was he actually a target? And then questions pop up firstly over Zelensky apparently asked Biden not to sanction him immediately and secondly Zelensky mentioned him in his interview with Russia independent media in offering to help rebuild. Also it was reported on the 25th March - AFTER this incident - that Abramovich had gone to Poland (from Ukraine!) to talk to Biden over negotiations with Putin. He had travelled there on a Portugese not Russian passport according to these reports
  5. This has become public on the very day that a story - led by Bellingcat on the BBC - has been reported about a former Putin rival being murdered by poison. (Cos this is obviously a total coincedence and not about making a point about how far Putin's gone before Hmm)
  6. Is this an isolated incident? Has there been other ones? If so, who has been targetted?
  7. This is being framed as being an attack by 'Russian Hardliners' rather than state sanctioned or ordered directly by Putin. Why? To make Putin look less hardline?! Or to be diplomatic about a chemical attack, given we know that this has been done before...?

Regardless I think this wins story of the day hands down.

Alternative Moral of the story: Chocolate really is bad for your health.

EsmaCannonball · 28/03/2022 17:09

There have been a few positive stories about Abramovich placed in the media recently and I am immediately suspicious of them. It's not that I think the poisoning didn't happen (after all, some of the individuals Putin has had murdered or poisoned or imprisoned were not exactly innocent characters) but Abramovich is so murky I just don't trust anything about him.

RedToothBrush · 28/03/2022 17:12

@EsmaCannonball

There have been a few positive stories about Abramovich placed in the media recently and I am immediately suspicious of them. It's not that I think the poisoning didn't happen (after all, some of the individuals Putin has had murdered or poisoned or imprisoned were not exactly innocent characters) but Abramovich is so murky I just don't trust anything about him.
Not just me thinking this then too.
strawberriesarenot · 28/03/2022 17:17

@Ijsbear

I wish, wish, wish that the west would give some tanks to them.
I wish this so much too. I can't understand why not.
EsmaCannonball · 28/03/2022 17:17

Wasn't the Ukrainian negotiator who was allegedly a spy and 'shot dead while resisting arrest' killed a day or two after this poisoning?

RedToothBrush · 28/03/2022 17:24

Sergej Sumlemmy @sumlemmy
In many tapped phone calls between Russian soldiers and their relatives (Russians steal UKR mobile phones, use them, SBU taps) they tell same story: how rich Ukraine is, how much they have looted, and how cool ppl lived here. Some saw asphalt and street lights for the fist time.

Many Western experts and politicians loved to repeat the story of "rich Russia and poor Ukraine". The fact is, that except of extra rich Moscow and Petersburg, Russia is an underdeveloped country, and average Ukrainian province lives much better than average Russian province.

I don't even talk about political freedoms in Ukraine like election of mayors, free press, local self-governance etc. - soldiers do not see this. Ukrainians have better roads, better lights, more money, better food, better connection with neighbour countries. This shocks Russians

They were told all the times that Ukraine is a failed state with people who work like slaves in Europe and have nothing. Now they see the reality where every gasoline station has a computer-operated coffee machine with 30 types of teas, coffee and hot chocolate, and a whisky bar.

Of course they loot the whisky bar.

In an unconnected tweet Ive seen today:

Eerik N Koss @eeriknkoss
About 33% of Russian hospitals lack running water and 40% have no central heating. Obviously, Russia is trying to achieve the same in Ukraine having already bombed a good number of hospitals to Russian levels. F off Russia. The free World will rebuild.
www.rferl.org/a/russia-s-chief-auditor-says-one-in-three-hospitals-lack-running-water/30458571.html
Russia’s Chief Auditor Says 1-In-3 Hospitals Lacks Running Water

Most of the buildings housing medical institutions are in “unsatisfactory sanitary and technical condition,” contributing to their natural dilapidation, the report says of the inspections carried out in January.

Slightly more than half the buildings don’t have hot water, 35 percent lack sewer systems, and 47 percent aren’t accessible by wheelchairs.

(another point here: Russia doesn't have anywhere TO medivac its soliders to).

PerkingFaintly · 28/03/2022 17:24

I've missed that one, Esma. Any chance of a link?

RedToothBrush · 28/03/2022 17:25

@EsmaCannonball

Wasn't the Ukrainian negotiator who was allegedly a spy and 'shot dead while resisting arrest' killed a day or two after this poisoning?
I thought it was one about the Belarusian negotiations which were very early on, but maybe it was connected to this instead. I'd have to check dates.
DuncinToffee · 28/03/2022 17:27

@EsmaCannonball

Wasn't the Ukrainian negotiator who was allegedly a spy and 'shot dead while resisting arrest' killed a day or two after this poisoning?
Denys Kireyev

I have seen a few posts wondering if there is a connection.

RedToothBrush · 28/03/2022 17:28

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10582805/Ukrainian-peace-negotiator-shot-dead-amid-claims-Russian-spy.html
Dated 6th March.

Relevant paragraph:
Mr Kireev was pictured sat on the Ukrainian side of the negotiating table during last week's peace talks with Russia on February 28, despite not being on the official delegation list, and his role at the summit is unclear.

Both Russia and Ukraine have made claims about his alleged spying activities, each blaming him of working for the other side.

EsmaCannonball · 28/03/2022 17:33

metro.co.uk/2022/03/07/ukraine-peace-negotiator-put-to-death-after-claims-he-was-russia-spy-16227598/

The Ukrainian negotiator who was shot.

RedToothBrush · 28/03/2022 17:35

Leonid Ragozin @leonidragozin March 5
Ukrainian media report that a member of Ukrainian delegation at Gomel peace talks, Denys Kireyev, was killed by SBU as security agents tried to capture him on suspicion of high treason. He is reportedly linked to elements in the ex-president Yanukovych’s government.

Timing fits.

Nexta @nexta_tv
The Ukrainian Defense Ministry's main intelligence service said that Denys Kireyev was killed while carrying out a special assignment.

There is no information about his treason or liquidation by the Ukrainian special services

Tim White @TWMCltd
#Ukraine has assassinated one of its own negotiators in the peace talks.

Reports suggest Denys Kireev was accused of high treason after the security services intercepted phone calls. No official comment from the President or SBU yet.
en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/807707.html

RedToothBrush · 28/03/2022 17:47

Bellingcat @bellingcat
Bellingcat can confirm that three members of the delegation attending the peace talks between Ukraine and Russia on the night of 3 to 4 March 2022 experienced symptoms consistent with poisoning with chemical weapons. One of victims was Russian entrepreneur Roman Abramovich.

Mark MacKinnon @markmackinnon - Senior international correspondent for the Globe and Mail
A day later, a member of the Ukrainian negotiating team told me he had seen a positive shift they had seen on the Russian side. That same day (March 5) one of the Ukrainian negotiating side was shot and killed amid rumours he had been a double agent…

Here’s the link to my March 5 story about negotiations seeming to take a turn for the better:
www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-russia-ukraine-war-zelensky-adviser/
Top Zelensky aide says Russia starting to realize the real price of its war in Ukraine

Mr. Podolyak said that while the Russian side hadn’t yet altered its demands for a Ukrainian capitulation, he sensed that its attitude was shifting as the war and unprecedented Western sanctions took their toll.

“At the very start of the war, they were insisting on total domination. They weren’t expecting that Ukraine would deliver such severe resistance,” he said in an interview on Saturday. “They are starting to realize the real price of war only now. And now we are starting to have constructive negotiations.”

Mr. Podolyak made the comments after taking part in two rounds of talks with Russian officials at the Ukraine-Belarus border over the past week. A third negotiating session is set for Monday.

First talks on 28th. Second around 3/4th on Ukraine / Belarus border. Were this the same as the one Abramovich was at?

Mark MacKinnon @markmackinnon
And then this, later the same day (I asked Podolyak about it in our interview, but he only said that it was under investigation)…

Link to the story about the shot negotiator.

The whole thing is utterly bizarre.

PerkingFaintly · 28/03/2022 17:48

Thank you both for the links. How very murky.

Not the least odd thing in the Metro story is Pravda claiming Ukraine had ‘clear evidence’ of Mr Kireev’s suspected treason including telephone conversations.

Unless Pravda is fingering a third country as the spymaster, that's essentially them admitting he was a Russian spy who was killed by the Ukrainians. Can't quite see why they'd do that. (Or is the contemporary Pravda very different from the official mouthpiece of old?)

EsmaCannonball · 28/03/2022 17:48

Normally when the Russians poison someone the results are fatal or catastrophic to health. When they want to send a message, they really send a message. What would be the point of mildly poisoning the Ukrainians and Abramovich? Were the results meant to be more damaging? Was it more a message to Abramovich to stop dealing with the Ukrainians, and vice versa? Is it something else entirely (i.e. a shady billionaire doing a rather extreme form of crisis reputation management?)

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