Ukraine Invasion: Part 17

[MagicFox]

A new place for us to convene, thread 17.

@MagicFox
But their actions so far don't suggest concentrating on the Donbas. They're encircling Kyiv and bombing the shit out of western Ukraine. I think what they say means nothing, we can only go on what they do

I think you are right.

@MagicFox while I get that, we have seen some withdrawals of troops. We ha e seen no major assault on Kyiv. If they wanted to they could sent a load of their hypersonic missiles into Kyiv that you supposedly can't defend against.

As for bombing Western Ukraine I think we can all be in agreement that western Ukraine has seen no way near as much violence as the rest and western Ukraine does seem to be aimed at military targets as opposed to random missiles.

Also let's remember this was only announced 2 days ago. I can't imagine the logistics are as simple as everyone turn to the east and leave your posts.

Michael Weiss @michaeldweiss
"Their corpses are left in the streets. In several cities, small cities, our soldiers say it’s impossible to breathe because of the smell. It is the stench of rotting flesh. It’s a complete nightmare."

Quote from Zelensky's interview with the economist.

I hope you're right @Tuba437 . I am definitely tending towards the pessimistic and it's not where I want to be. But I'm scared to get any hopes up

I have a worry that the Russians will start taking out bridges to the east of the Dneiper River now.

If they have decided not to invade the whole of Ukraine, they no longer need to maintain these bridges for their invasion. Taking them out makes it incredibly difficult for Ukraine to keep supplying its citizens and troops. It also makes it much more difficult for citizens to get out.

We know they have effectively already done this to Chernihiv. I expect to see more similar issues grow on scale.

The fact they have gone for fuel dumps strategically does make me think they are going to start being more clever and tactical than they have been, out of necessity.

I think the window is closing for those in the east to get out if they haven't already.

Jonny Tickle

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has announced that Moscow is preparing a decree to restrict citizens of "unfriendly countries" from entering the country.

The list includes EU, UK, USA, Ukraine, amongst others:

twitter.com/jonnytickle/status/1508420412476170245?s=21

Max Seddon @maxseddon
Lavrov says Putin will sign a decree restricting entry into Russia for citizens of "unfriendly countries" in response to western sanctions.

That's the US, the UK, Canada, all of Europe, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and a few others besides.

Well the response from Kaliningrad's neighbours will be interesting... (Lithuania and Poland).

That's very worrying for anyone already there.

[quote DuncinToffee]Jonny Tickle

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has announced that Moscow is preparing a decree to restrict citizens of "unfriendly countries" from entering the country.

The list includes EU, UK, USA, Ukraine, amongst others:

twitter.com/jonnytickle/status/1508420412476170245?s=21[/quote]
There goes my holiday this year 🙄

Not an easy read and absolutely heartbreaking.
www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/28/escape-from-irpin-frail-residents-helped-to-safety-after-month-of-hell

Euronews @euronews
Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov claims that any talks between presidents Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy would be "counterproductive".

The comments came a day after Zelenskyy reiterated an offer to sit down with Putin to end the war. #UkraineRussia

Translation : the optics of Zelensky next toPutin aren't great for us. It would suggest Zelensky's legitimacy and equal standing to Putin. Putin has no interest in peace because he is a murderous pig with a wounded ego.

Plus we know which one looks better and Mr Putin is an insecure aging vain bastard...

Phil Stewart @phildstewart
(Reuters) - A change in government in Ukraine is not Moscow's goal in Ukraine, the Interfax news agency cited Security Council chief Nikolai Patrushev as saying on Monday.

Anders Aslund @andersaslund
Reported Russian Losses, Feb. 24-Mar. 25
Planes 123 of 375 in Ukraine
Helicopters 127 of 240
Artillery systems 302 of 2,300
Tanks 586 of 1,700
Armored vehicles 1,694 of 4,300
Personnel ~17,000 killed of 150,000 (ground force)
Source: Ukrainian Defense Ministry

Quick point on the above, I forgot which media outlet publish it now but they did a comparison on how Russia's and Ukraine's lost of equipment compared after about a fortnight.

In absolute numbers Russia was way ahead, but Ukraine was fairing slightly worse in terms of %, though they think causalities were lower.

Over 40% of Russian planes and over 50% of Russian Helicopters is quite something though.

So Zelensky keeping asking for tanks in the context of that does make a lot of sense.

Morning started with claims Russian forces were trying to breach Kyiv's defenses, evening brings claims that Ukrainian forces have pushed the Russians further back, gaining control of a suburb to the north-west of the captial.

("Irpin is fully liberated, mayor said")

twitter.com/euan_macdonald/status/1508440577351815191?s=21

Reports Irpin has been liberated coming through.

@DuncinToffee
From the Guardian article you posted 14:38

”While most people who have left Irpin are relieved to have reached the relative safety of Kyiv, Kolomiets said he planned to return on Monday in an attempt to persuade more people to leave.

The people who are left now are the people who really can’t walk: drug addicts, alcoholics and the really old pensioners. These are the people we have to take the most care of,” he said.”

A Saint.

Moscow Times
#BREAKING Novaya Gazeta, one of Russia's last remaining independent media outlets, is suspending its reporting until the end of Russia's war in Ukraine after multiple threats of legal action from Russia's censorship watchdog

Over 40% of Russian planes and over 50% of Russian Helicopters is quite something though.

Most of the Russian losses are believed to be down to MANPADS, either Ukrainian or their own (red on red) and demonstrates why the Ukranian’s won’t be keen to put any aircraft of their own into contested airspace over a battlefield or besieged city.

ScrollingLeaves
He is

@RedToothBrush

Quick point on the above, I forgot which media outlet publish it now but they did a comparison on how Russia's and Ukraine's lost of equipment compared after about a fortnight.

In absolute numbers Russia was way ahead, but Ukraine was fairing slightly worse in terms of %, though they think causalities were lower.

Over 40% of Russian planes and over 50% of Russian Helicopters is quite something though.

So Zelensky keeping asking for tanks in the context of that does make a lot of sense.

What struck me also with those numbers is the sheer number of Russian artillery systems.
Its going to be a long slog for some Ukrainian cities given that I would have thought.

The times @thetimes
Ukraine has published the names and addresses of 620 FSB officers in an apparent data breach of the Russian security agency

The Ukrainian directorate of intelligence claimed the list revealed the personal details of agents engaging in “criminal activities” across Europe.

The list also includes agents’:
Car models & licence plates
Phone numbers
Dates & places of birth

All those on the list were registered as living in the Lubyanka, the service’s Moscow headquarters.

The FSB is Russia’s domestic security service, akin to MI5. However, its remit also encompasses countries of the former Soviet Union, including Ukraine

If authentic, the release would constitute a huge data breach at the spy agency, of which President Putin was director from 1998 to 1999

It is not the first time that the FSB’s security has been compromised in recent weeks.

This month Ukrainian intelligence forces were able to intercept a phone call between two agents, discussing the death of a Russian general

Rather than using the service’s secure communication channel, Era, they were using normal Sim cards.

It is thought that the FSB, which was responsible for intelligence gathering in Ukraine in the lead-up to the war, is being blamed for the invasions failures

Two weeks ago Sergey Beseda, head of the FSB’s foreign intelligence branch, was arrested with Anatoly Bolyukh, his deputy, in a sign that Putin is seeking to blame the security services for the stalled invasion of Ukraine

Andrei Soldatov, an expert on Russian espionage, said the final reports produced by the FSB on Ukraine in the run-up to the invasion were “simply not right, which is part of the reason as to why things have gone so badly for Russia”

The FSB's assessments of popular support among Ukrainians for a Russian invasion and the extent to which the country would resist were “terribly miscalculated”, Soldatov said

However, Soldatov added: “The problem is that it is too risky for superiors to tell Putin what he doesn’t want to hear, so they tailor their information."

"We can’t rule out the fact that the intelligence they gathered on the ground was in fact very good”

What struck me also with those numbers is the sheer number of Russian artillery systems.
Its going to be a long slog for some Ukrainian cities given that I would have thought.

Yes. However it also depends on a couple of other factors: having those artillery maintained well enough and supplied with munitions. In that context look at the percentage of armoured vehicles taken out - the logistic vehicles.

I believe that the Ukrainians have made a point on targeting the logistics vehicles and there are a few indications that Russia is resorting to bringing in civilian vehicles for this purpose because theyve lost so many armoured vehicles.

So whilst the numbers aren't great, there are also some weak points to keep an eye on.

@RedToothBrush

What struck me also with those numbers is the sheer number of Russian artillery systems. Its going to be a long slog for some Ukrainian cities given that I would have thought.

Yes. However it also depends on a couple of other factors: having those artillery maintained well enough and supplied with munitions. In that context look at the percentage of armoured vehicles taken out - the logistic vehicles.

I believe that the Ukrainians have made a point on targeting the logistics vehicles and there are a few indications that Russia is resorting to bringing in civilian vehicles for this purpose because theyve lost so many armoured vehicles.

So whilst the numbers aren't great, there are also some weak points to keep an eye on.

There have also been reports from US military intelligence that many of the Russian artillery (missiles?) has not been firing properly [failing in my military-speak]

However, I am guessing there is still a lot of Russian artillery out there and Ukrainian cities are currently being hit so the picture continues to look bleak.