Ukraine Invasion: Part 17

[MagicFox]

A new place for us to convene, thread 17.

personally I think a lot of the more esoteric philosophers needed to peel more potatoes and look after toddlers more. There is a groundedness in the everyday tasks that gives some sense of reality. It’s rarely the farmers who voluntarily go to war

Oh, totally! Couldn’t agree more. If you’ve worked for and built something with your own hands you won’t want to see it torn down. If on the other hand you’ve lived off other people all your life…
There should be no such thing as a career leader who has never stayed up all night to build or create or discover something tangible.

@Thereisnolight

personally I think a lot of the more esoteric philosophers needed to peel more potatoes and look after toddlers more. There is a groundedness in the everyday tasks that gives some sense of reality. It’s rarely the farmers who voluntarily go to war

Oh, totally! Couldn’t agree more. If you’ve worked for and built something with your own hands you won’t want to see it torn down. If on the other hand you’ve lived off other people all your life…
There should be no such thing as a career leader who has never stayed up all night to build or create or discover something tangible.

Jean Paul Sartre was a very clever man As a thinker there was no one keener. But we all hate him round our way; Coz he knew fuck all about the Cortina.

(courtesy the Rossetti memory banks. Officially "weird").

@PaperTyger

Just catching up. Very convenient how Putin say's he will significantly drop attacks on Kiev as if it's and it's choice? I don't think it is a choice he has too because he's on the back foot

Frankly if Putin wants to paint his forces retreat from Kyiv as a withdrawal to help peace talks then as long as it happens I don't really mind what it is called.

the category of truth versus falsehood is among the mental means to this end—is being destroyed."

It is dangerous to say ‘I don’t know what to believe’ under certain conditions. Granted there are often many layers of complexity to any set of actions that shouldn’t be simplified. On the other hand, we have to be able to accept the evidence of overwhelming proportions. For example, the bombed out cities of Ukraine are not some Hollywood backlot.

Human Rights therefore is this fuzzy concept imposed by the west who haven't always kept their own houses in order

I want to dispute this line of argument a bit (coming late to this particular debate) in that the concept of human rights are very clearly discussed and delineated in academic discourse and in law developed over many decades (centuries). Albeit not always upheld by Western/European governments or corporations with too many cases of human rights abuses.

However, a key difference is that because human rights have been entrenched and ratified in law, there have been successful recourse to courts of law for individuals and groups whose rights have been harmed in some instances. I don’t know Russian law, but I’m hazarding a guess that it’s track record is, on balance, weaker than the US, UK and/or Europe in such matters.

@Ijsbear

another fuel depot hit, from the Kyiv Independent: 18:37 external Russian missile strike destroys airport's fuel depot in Khmelnytskyi Oblast.

Mykola Melnychuk, mayor of Starokostiantyniv, said that there were no casualties as a result of the March 29 strike on the town’s airport but all strategic reserves of fuels and lubricants have been destroyed.

I puzzled by this. Surely this is the sort of target that one would hit on the first few days of the invasion?

If they knew where it was, and if their forces were close enough. It's in between Kyiv and Lviv, so not necessarily easy to reach at first. Plus Im sure that Russian spies might have taken time to find out where things were. It seems that there's been a concentration on fuel depots in the last days so perhaps orders were issued to find them a couple of weeks ago.

Conflict News @Conflicts
BREAKING: Reports that a Russian military munitions depot has exploded in the Russian city of Belgorod close to the Ukrainian border. Cause of the explosion so far unknown.

Rob Lee @RALee85
Could be sabotage by Ukrainian SSO/SOF, who have allegedly conducted operations in Russia over the past few years, but we should also keep in mind that there have been several explosions at Russian ammo depots in recent years due to lax safety standards.

OSINTdefender @sentdefender
Some Sources in Belgorod reported hearing what sounded like a Missile before the Explosion, and some Ukrainian Source are Claiming that the Depot was hit by a Ukrainian Military Fired OTR-21 Tochka-U Ballistic Missile.

@jgw1

I puzzled by this. Surely this is the sort of target that one would hit on the first few days of the invasion?

[speculation] No idea what their targeting philosophy is TBH but they’ll be limited by various factors such as how many missiles a day they can fire, and what did they see as their most immediate priority on any particular day..

It’s almost a given that the Tier one stuff that gets hit early on tends to radar sites, airfields and what’s on them, military HQs, logistics parks, tank parks, communications centers,….then probably the logistics facilities nearer the front line - ammunition dumps, and local Petrol Oil Lubricant (POL) facilities. That’s a fair commitment in itself and maybe only now do they’d feel they can afford to use ordnance on slightly lower tier targets [/speculation]

@jgw1 - it is believed the Russians thought they'd walk in and it'd all be over in a couple of days. Why would they destroy fuel stores if they thought they'd be running things in short order?

Wojciech Lugowski @WLugowski
Supposedly Russian ammo depot in Belgorod decided to spontaneously explode. Wonder why that happened. Russia have never had issues with storing ammunition, have they?

www.overtdefense.com/2020/10/13/why-do-russian-ammunition-depots-keep-blowing-up/
Why Do Russian Ammunition Depots Keep Blowing Up?

All the same reasons as the rest of the issues to do with the military.

AFP News Agency @AFP
#BREAKING Putin tells Macron "nationalists" in Mariupol must lay down arms, says Kremlin

#BREAKING French presidency says no Mariupol humanitarian mission possible "at this stage"

AFP News Agency @AFP
#BREAKING Russia "repositioning" forces around Kyiv, not withdrawing, says Pentagon

I have just watched Channel 4 News

Krishnan Guru-Murthy tells it how it is. Worth watching again on 4+1 - on now. Interview with Dmitry Polyansky - Deputy Ambassador to UN.

DP: "We have debunked the Mariupol Theatre bombing"

KGM: "You have not debunked it, you have denied it"

Plus loads more. Sharp as a pin, KGM then turns back as sirens sound over Lvil. He asks DP what those may be. DP mumbles.

If anybody remembers Comical Ali from Iraq in 1991, "No there are no tanks in Baghdad" as they drove by in the background, then this is Russia's equivalent.

Great interview Krishnan, as always.

Full admiration for Channel 4 News. Because it has not gone amiss that some days over the last month, the whole news, including UK news, has been broadcast wholly from Ukraine. Things like this matter.

That is quite an article and quite some pictures!

Russia "repositioning" forces around Kyiv, not withdrawing, says Pentagon

Where to in relation to the wind direction?

ТАСС @tass_agency
Four servicemen were wounded when a shell hit a military camp in the Belgorod region, the source said

@TargusEasting

Russia "repositioning" forces around Kyiv, not withdrawing, says Pentagon

Where to in relation to the wind direction?

Thinking chemical? .... ....

Do we have to be careful with peace talks being part of a Russian distraction campaign. Peace talks get the media headlines (even making the stock market jump) and makes the average western media watcher hopeful for Dr escalation and therefore switch their attention to other matters. For non western observers of portrays the Russians in a positive light in that they appear to be the side actively seeking a peace deal (if it fails at least they tried)

Therefore I think care has to be given by the media when reporting on peace talks and put them in context.

Also I think we have to accept Europe and the US have some implicit day in peace talks e am though not directly involved. It is not a proxy war but the West is willing to continue to supply the Ukranians with arms and therefore the response of the West in general to my mind needs to be a conakderation. If the Ukranians are forced into a peace deal which is against their interests especially in terms of sovereignty I think the West will continue with an economic response to the Russian aggression and we still would be in an unstable world.

Re Belgorod explosion

Aldin @tinso_ww
Reportedly explosion happened around village of Krasnyy Oktyabr. Area is full of polutry farms, no permanent storage site. This could be indeed some temporary storage site located at one of the farms.

@RedToothBrush

ТАСС *@tass*_agency Four servicemen were wounded when a shell hit a military camp in the Belgorod region, the source said

I’m going to ask you a stupid question now your very knowledgeable, I hope you don’t mind.

Could this be a warning shot from Ukraine to suggest attacks can go both ways?

If so, would this be considered a war crime as it’s out of the battleground, Ukraine? Or is it only considered a war crime if civilians are targeted ?

@Ijsbear
Yes, its possible.

But I like to think with the info set these days it would be too obvious. But one never knows and it remains possible. There is only one drill that was drummed in: chemical. Its not a wildcard at all.

Could this be a warning shot from Ukraine to suggest attacks can go both ways?

Could be.
Could be an accident.
Could also be a false flag.

I am waiting for more information on this one.

@RedToothBrush
This could be indeed some temporary storage site located at one of the farms.

Ha ! Right out of the book. Reminds me of Slab Murphy.
www.theguardian.com/uk/2001/nov/17/northernireland.martinwainwright

OSINTdefender @sentdefender
Russian State Media is now reporting that Ukrainian Artillery Shelled a Russian Military Installation in the Belgorod Region wounding at least 4 Russian Servicemen, Confirming the Explosions we saw earlier, I have a feeling they are downplaying the Severity of this Attack.

Jimmy @JimmySecUK
Reposted for clarity -

TASS claimed the explosion was a result of a "shell" and then deleted the tweet a few minutes later.

RIA are now claiming "four employees of law enforcement agencies were injured in an explosion in the Belgorod region".

There have been a few reports of phosphorus but given the importance and high information-levels coming out of Kyiv, a chemical attack would be a big step in escalation.

If so, would this be considered a war crime as it’s out of the battleground, Ukraine? Or is it only considered a war crime if civilians are targeted ?

There isn't a 'battleground Ukraine'. Ukraine and Russia are at war. Thus Russia is technically fair game.

It would be hard to argue that a ammo dump is a civilian target. Even for the Russians.